A Log-Star Comparison Between Expectation Threshold and Fractional Expectation Threshold

Abstract

We proved a log-star comparison between the expectation threshold $q(\mathcal F)$ and the fractional expectation threshold $q_f(\mathcal F)$ for any nontrivial increasing family $\mathcal F$ on a finite ground set $V$ of size $|V|=N$. Specifically, we show that $$q_f(\mathcal F)\le64\log_2^*(N+2)\,q(\mathcal F),$$ where $\log_2^* x$ is the iterated logarithm of base-2. Using similiar methods, one can extend this result to the following stronger form: there exists a universal constant $C>0$ such that \[ q_f(\mathcal F)\le Cq(\mathcal F)\log_2^*(l(\mathcal F)),\quad q_f(\mathcal F)\le Cq(\mathcal F)\log_2^*(\operatorname{VC}(\min\mathcal F)), \] where $l(\mathcal F):=\max\{2,\max_{S\in\min\mathcal F}|S|\}$ and $\operatorname{VC}(\min\mathcal F)$ denotes the VC-dimension of $\min\mathcal F$. On October 7, 2026, OpenAI released a result proving the equivalence of fractional and integral thresholds, which supersedes the findings in this note. The authors are keeping this note for historical reference.