Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv · 2609.35911

Learn Now, Use Next, Trust Later: Prequential Test-Time Learning for LLM Agents

Abstract

Adapting large language model agents during deployment requires not only retaining past experience, but also turning new observations into timely guidance. Many test-time learning methods, however, acquire knowledge from completed episodes. Feedback from an ongoing interaction may therefore not be distilled into knowledge soon enough to help the next decision. Acquiring knowledge at the granularity of individual transitions could reduce this delay, but raises a separate challenge: a rule that is useful within one episode may not be reliable enough to guide future episodes. Waiting for validation can forfeit immediate benefits, whereas unrestricted reuse can propagate accidental or misattributed guidance. We introduce StepLearn, a nonparametric framework that separates immediate use from persistent trust. It turns informative transitions into hypotheses that can guide the next step, while requiring prospective validation before reuse across episodes. Their predicted effects are checked against subsequent observations outside the source episodes, and only sufficiently supported hypotheses become available for persistent guidance. This process updates external knowledge while keeping all model parameters fixed. Over five rounds on WebArena-Lite and ALFWorld, StepLearn achieves average success rates of 59.9% and 84.0% with GPT-5-mini, and 57.8% and 88.1% with Qwen3.5-35B-A3B, respectively. It outperforms EvoTest, the strongest baseline, by 2.2-12.7 percentage points across the four settings. Learning dynamics further shows that these gains are not restricted to the final repetition, with advantages already present on first task attempts in most settings.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Tong Zhao, Reed Li, Yuyang Hu, Yutao Zhu, Haijin Liang, Haibo Shi, Yu Lu, Zhicheng Dou. 2026-09-28. Learn Now, Use Next, Trust Later: Prequential Test-Time Learning for LLM Agents. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35911

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Dynamic Strategy Selection

We consider the problem of dynamically selecting among competing strategies using observable predictors. To mitigate estimation noise and excessive switching, we regularise the estimated policy with a switching cost, which may exceed actual transaction costs when these are too small to provide sufficient regularisation. Since switching costs make current choices affect future decisions, we formulate the problem using dynamic programming. The optimal policy is estimated using a reinforcement learning algorithm based on iterated regressions, making the procedure simple to implement. We apply the method to monthly rotation among momentum, value, profitability, and defensive U.S. equity factors over a sample of about 60 years. Using a parsimonious set of state variables, the estimated policy outperforms both the myopic dynamic policy and the best fixed factor in hindsight in out-of-sample evaluation. Under weak conditions, we show theoretically that the decision rule estimated from empirical data is asymptotically consistent for the unknown optimal decision rule. Simulation results illustrate the finite-sample relevance of these asymptotic results.

cs.LG↗

Mamba Hawkes Process for Event Sequence Modeling

Modeling asynchronous event sequences is crucial in numerous real-world applications such as healthcare monitoring, financial transaction analysis, and so on. Traditional temporal point processes, including Hawkes Processes, often fail to capture complex dependencies due to their parametric limitations. While neural approaches like RNNs and Transformers have improved flexibility, they struggle with computational inefficiency, and attention saturation. In this paper, we introduce the Mamba Hawkes Process (MHP), the first framework to integrate selective state space model (Mamba) with temporal point processes. MHP leverages time-varying state transitions and input-dependent gating to efficiently encode event history and capture long-term dependencies with linear complexity. Importantly, we provide theoretical guarantees showing that MHP generalizes both classical multi-exponential Hawkes processes and exponential-decay gated RNNs, underscoring its expressive power and theoretical soundness. To address the inherent constraints of pure state space models in handling heterogeneous event interactions, we further develop Adaptive Mamba Hawkes Process (A-MHP) that incorporates two novel mechanisms: a Time-Scaling Mechanism that adaptively weights time intervals based on event type and history, and a Dual-Channel State Transition that adaptively processes event content and temporal dynamics for more refined state updates. Extensive experiments on synthetic and realworld datasets demonstrate that MHP and A-MHP consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines in event prediction tasks, particularly in long-sequence scenarios. Our work establishes a scalable and theoretically grounded paradigm for event sequence modeling, with practical implications for predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, and dynamic system analysis.

cs.LG↗

The Price of Failure Risk: Clipped Barrier Policy Gradients with Convex Regularization

In many control problems, actions consume a resource budget, such as a wear allowance, and the probability of exhausting it within a given horizon must stay below a tolerance. A simple, widely used approach is to augment the state with the remaining budget, subtract an interior barrier from the utility and penalize exhaustion, so that policy-gradient methods can be applied unchanged. We clip the combined one-step reward from below at a level m to keep the returns of exploratory policies finite. The clip level is a price of failure risk, since the clipped value decomposes exactly into the utility before failure, the cost of the interior margin and m times a geometric failure risk. Consequently, an approximately optimal policy maximizes utility net of margin cost among policies with no greater risk. Its risk exceeds that of any comparison policy by at most order 1/m and can be certified from its value or from validation data. Our main result proves exponential convergence of the population policy-gradient flow for every parameter regularizer that is convex along generalized geodesics and sufficiently strong relative to the price. This extends the mean-field analysis from relative entropy to weight decay and to finite networks. Relative entropy adds parameter noise and a pull toward a prior, whereas weight decay provides only the pull. Action regularization bounds changes in failure risk by the relative entropy to a reference policy. The bounds are evaluated on an exact maintenance benchmark, a fuel-tank controller, a solvable flow and a benchmark-suite task.

cs.LG↗