Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.10648

Leakage-Controlled Multimodal Learning for Diagnosis and Progression Prediction in Alzheimer's Disease Research

Akeem Temitope Otapo·Ghazaleh Khodabandelou·Zuheng Ming·Alice Othmani
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Alzheimer's disease prediction involves irregular visits, heterogeneous measurements and incomplete modalities. This study presents a multimodal multitask framework combining an adapted SFCN MRI encoder, four causal clinical Transformers, shared fusion and task-specific ODE-GRU dynamics. Fine-tuning and LoRA adapt the final two MRI blocks. Task-DRO balances task losses, while Group-CVaR targets cohort and comorbidity strata. Branch-specific input controls, subject-grouped partitions and empirical causality checks support longitudinal evaluation. Across 2,649 subjects and 17,317 visits from ADNI, OASIS-2 and MIRIAD, internal validation yields diagnosis, stage-1 progression and first-stage-1-visit progression AUROCs of 0.935 +/- 0.002, 0.884 +/- 0.003 and 0.870 +/- 0.005, respectively (mean +/- SD across three seeds). Corresponding hybrid AUROCs are 0.951, 0.909 and 0.896. Next-visit MMSE mean absolute error (MAE) is 1.61 points; worst-stratum diagnosis AUROC is 0.827 +/- 0.008. Sampled ADNI explanations identify task-specific input dependence. OASIS-3 external validation yields network and hybrid diagnosis AUROCs of 0.763 and 0.767, hybrid next-visit progression AUROC of 0.764, diagnosis calibration error decreasing from 0.197 to 0.052, and next-visit MMSE MAE of 0.86. Seed-42 paired ablations of six components yield pooled diagnosis and progression AUROC differences between -0.004 and +0.004; removing clinical encoder inputs lowers diagnosis AUROC by 0.272. The framework integrates longitudinal prediction, missing-modality handling, auxiliary comorbidity modelling and subgroup evaluation within a common pipeline.

Explore related subjects

cs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Akeem Temitope Otapo, Ghazaleh Khodabandelou, Zuheng Ming, Alice Othmani. 2026-10-07. Leakage-Controlled Multimodal Learning for Diagnosis and Progression Prediction in Alzheimer's Disease Research. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10648

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Instance-Level Difficulty: A Missing Perspective in Machine Unlearning

Current research on deep machine unlearning primarily focuses on improving or evaluating the overall effectiveness of unlearning methods while overlooking the varying difficulty of unlearning individual training samples. As a result, the broader feasibility of machine unlearning remains under-explored. This paper studies the cruxes that make machine unlearning difficult through a thorough instance-level unlearning performance analysis over various unlearning algorithms and datasets. In particular, we summarize four factors that make unlearning a data point difficult, and we empirically show that these factors are independent of a specific unlearning algorithm but only relevant to the target model and its training data. Given these findings, we argue that machine unlearning research should pay attention to the instance-level difficulty of unlearning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Deep End-to-End Survival Analysis with Temporal Consistency

In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm, extending Temporal Learning concepts to Survival Regression. A central argument in our method relies on temporal consistency, a recursive consistency condition between survival predictions made at consecutive states. Our framework introduces a delayed target network that decouples the generation of temporally consistent training targets from model updates, providing a more stable training signal while enabling mini-batch optimization and end-to-end training. Additionally, it supports arbitrarily complex architectures, enabling the modeling of intricate temporal dependencies. Through numerous experiments we provide empirical evidence demonstrating our framework's ability to exploit temporal consistency across datasets of varying sizes. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms benchmarks on datasets with long sequences, demonstrating its ability to capture long-term patterns. Finally, ablation studies show that the degree of target delay has a substantial effect on predictive performance and training variability. Across two distinct survival model families, delayed target updates consistently improve over the same-timescale baseline.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Conditional Vendi Score: Prompt-Aware Diversity Evaluation for Generative AI Models and LLMs

Generative models guided by text prompts are widely evaluated for fidelity and prompt alignment, yet their ability to produce diverse outputs remains underexplored. Existing diversity metrics such as Vendi and RKE, which are based on the von Neumann and Rényi entropies of kernel matrices, were developed for unconditional models and cannot distinguish prompt-induced from model-induced variability. We address this gap by introducing \textit{Conditional-Vendi} and \textit{Conditional-RKE}, diversity measures derived from the conditional entropy of positive semidefinite matrices. These scores isolate model-induced diversity in prompt-guided generation, with Conditional-RKE enjoying an $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ convergence rate. For Conditional-Vendi, we introduce a truncated-spectrum approximation that yields scalable and consistent estimates. Experiments on text-to-image, image-captioning, and LLM tasks show that the conditional scores recover ground-truth diversity orderings and can also guide diffusion models toward more diverse samples. The codebase is available at https://github.com/mjalali/conditional-vendi.

cs.LG↗