Bayesian Soft-Tree Poisson Process Model for Covariate-Dependent Point Patterns

Pulong Ma

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arXiv · 2610.11343

Bayesian Soft-Tree Poisson Process Model for Covariate-Dependent Point Patterns

Pulong Ma

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Abstract

Estimating covariate-dependent intensity functions from spatial point pattern is challenging when the integrated intensity function cannot be evaluated analytically. This challenge becomes even worse in Bayesian inference due to repeated integration of the intensity function over the high-dimensional covariate space. This paper develops a Bayesian soft-tree Poisson process model that combines adaptive covariate partitioning with smooth intensity function. The key idea is to use soft gating functions to smooth transitions between partition boundaries in a tree generating process while preserving analytic evaluation of integrated intensity. A Bayesian CART prior is adopted to learn the partition structure from data. Given the partition tree, conjugate priors are assigned on leaf parameters to enable analytic marginal likelihood computation. This paper also develops a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC) algorithm for posterior inference. Posterior consistency is established for the proposed model with respect to the Hellinger distance. Extensive simulation studies and an application to wildfire data confirm the advantages of the proposed method over existing methods.

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BibTeX RIS

Pulong Ma. 2026-10-08. Bayesian Soft-Tree Poisson Process Model for Covariate-Dependent Point Patterns. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11343

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