Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.18762

Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports

Sachin Kumar
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Evaluation for automatic crisis reporting should measure what practitioners need, not what is convenient to compare. Through LLM-assisted, author-approved content analysis, we derive a 15-slot information schema from professional humanitarian situation reports using qualitative content analysis, then evaluate 121 human and 261 LLM-generated reports across five disasters and three hazard types. Under google/gemini-3.7-flash on Cyclone Idai, the best machine arm is nominally above the empirical human ceiling (0.827 vs. 0.821), but the difference is statistically indistinguishable from zero (95\% bootstrap CI $[-.049,.059]$; permutation $p=.852$), and the ordering does not replicate under openai/gpt-5.6-luna. On a blind 100-item Idai sample, the author agrees with the Gemini judge at 0.910 accuracy and unweighted Cohen's $κ=.799$. All four judges clear the plan's raw-agreement criterion of .7; only Gemini reaches .7 on chance-corrected $κ$. Across the three primary events, machine reports reproduce 5.4-11.0% of same-day official figures. Across those same events, raw exact-number matching links 14.3-19.6% of official figures and 85.4-90.1% of machine figures to the social stream; manual audit confirms 45/50 declared absences, 4/25 official matches, and 24/25 machine matches semantically. The issuing-provenance gap is positive in all 12 observed event-judge cells: report date, organisation, series, and authority were not supplied at professional-report coverage in any cell. On the three primary events, ROUGE-L is uninformative, BERTScore is negatively associated with completeness after multiplicity correction, and a generic LLM judge changes sign.

Explore related subjects

cs.CLcs.CYcs.SI

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Sachin Kumar. 2026-10-13. Looking Complete Is Not Being Grounded: Evaluating LLM Sitreps Against Human-Authored Situation Reports. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18762

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Multidimensional Consistency Improves Reasoning in Language Models

While Large language models (LLMs) have proved able to address some complex reasoning tasks, we also know that they are highly sensitive to input variation, which can lead to different solution paths and final answers. Answer consistency across input variations can thus be taken as a sign of stronger confidence. Leveraging this aspect, we introduce a framework where models are \textit{systematically pushed to diversify solution paths} towards a final answer, thereby testing them for answer consistency across multiple input variations. Focusing on math problems, we induce variations in (i) order of shots in prompt, (ii) problem phrasing, and (iii) languages used. Experiments on a wide range of open-source LLMs of various sizes show that reasoning consistency differs by variation dimension, and that by aggregating consistency across dimensions, our framework enhances mathematical reasoning performance on monolingual datasets GSM8K and MATH500, and the multilingual dataset MGSM. We also discuss the different efficacy of the types of variations induced and how they could be further leveraged in future work.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

VQEL: Enabling Self-Play in Emergent Language Games via Agent-Internal Vector Quantization

Emergent Language (EL) focuses on the emergence of communication among artificial agents. Although symbolic communication channels more closely mirror the discrete nature of human language, learning such protocols remains fundamentally difficult due to the non-differentiability of symbol sampling. Existing approaches typically rely on high-variance gradient estimators such as REINFORCE or on continuous relaxations such as Gumbel-Softmax, both of which suffer from limitations in training stability and scalability. Motivated by cognitive theories that emphasize intrapersonal processes preceding communication, we explore self-play as a substrate for language emergence prior to mutual interaction. We introduce Vector Quantized Emergent Language (VQEL), a novel architecture that incorporates vector quantization into the message generation process. VQEL enables agents to perform self-play using discrete internal representations derived from a learned codebook while preserving end-to-end differentiability. Moreover, the resulting vector-quantized codebook naturally induces a symbolic vocabulary that can be directly transferred and aligned during subsequent mutual play with other agents. Empirical results show that agents pretrained via VQEL self-play achieve more consistent symbol alignment and higher task success when later engaged in mutual interaction. These findings position self-play as a principled and effective mechanism for learning discrete communication protocols, addressing key optimization and representational challenges in emergent language systems.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

FailureSensorIQ: A Multi-Choice QA Dataset for Understanding Sensor Relationships and Failure Modes

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

cs.CL↗