Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.19095

Similar Models, Broken Odds: Where Luce's Axiom Fails in Chatbot Arena

Soovadeep Bakshi·Apurba Bose·Aishwarya Bose·Sandip Nandi
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Chatbot Arena ranks language models with the Bradley-Terry model, which gives each model one score and so assumes Luce's choice axiom. Choice theory predicts where this fails: near-copies are told apart more decisively than their scores imply. On 1.8 million Arena votes, votes between versions of one model are 1.37 times as decisive as Bradley-Terry predicts, between sizes of one generation 1.26 times and between models of one lab 1.12 times; a release a year later gives consistent multipliers, and the effect survives alternative tie treatments, prompt subsets and topics, and timing checks. How alike two models' answers are worded and formatted tracks the effect. A correction with four to six parameters predicts held-out votes better than Bradley-Terry and than models with hundreds of parameters, mostly by modelling ties; frozen and carried to new releases in a test fixed in advance, its gains are concentrated in ties, and better head-to-head odds are not established. The leaderboard order barely moves. With language-model judges and three-answer menus, a near-copy takes votes mostly from its twin when choices are pooled over prompts (log-odds shift +0.10, 95% interval 0.05 to 0.16); within a prompt the shift is smaller and clear for two of four judges.

Explore related subjects

cs.CLcs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Soovadeep Bakshi, Apurba Bose, Aishwarya Bose, Sandip Nandi. 2026-10-13. Similar Models, Broken Odds: Where Luce's Axiom Fails in Chatbot Arena. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19095

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

VietMed: A Dataset and Benchmark for Automatic Speech Recognition of Vietnamese in the Medical Domain

Due to privacy restrictions, there's a shortage of publicly available speech recognition datasets in the medical domain. In this work, we present VietMed - a Vietnamese speech recognition dataset in the medical domain comprising 16h of labeled medical speech, 1000h of unlabeled medical speech and 1200h of unlabeled general-domain speech. To our best knowledge, VietMed is by far the world's largest public medical speech recognition dataset in 7 aspects: total duration, number of speakers, diseases, recording conditions, speaker roles, unique medical terms and accents. VietMed is also by far the largest public Vietnamese speech dataset in terms of total duration. Additionally, we are the first to present a medical ASR dataset covering all ICD-10 disease groups and all accents within a country. Moreover, we release the first public large-scale pre-trained models for Vietnamese ASR, w2v2-Viet and XLSR-53-Viet, along with the first public large-scale fine-tuned models for medical ASR. Even without any medical data in unsupervised pre-training, our best pre-trained model XLSR-53-Viet generalizes very well to the medical domain by outperforming state-of-the-art XLSR-53, from 51.8% to 29.6% WER on test set (a relative reduction of more than 40%). All code, data and models are made publicly available: https://github.com/leduckhai/MultiMed/tree/master/VietMed.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Learning to Retrieve and Reason on Knowledge Graph through Active Self-Reflection

Extensive research has investigated the integration of large language models (LLMs) with knowledge graphs to enhance the reasoning process. However, understanding how models perform reasoning utilizing structured graph knowledge remains underexplored. Most existing approaches rely on LLMs or retrievers to make binary judgments regarding the utilization of knowledge, which is too coarse. Meanwhile, there is still a lack of feedback mechanisms for reflection and control throughout the entire reasoning path. This paper proposes an Active self-Reflection framework for knowledge Graph reasoning (ArG), introducing for the first time an end-to-end training approach to achieve iterative reasoning grounded on structured graphs. Within the framework, the model leverages special tokens to actively control the reasoning process, achieving on-demand retrieval and multi-dimensional, finer-grained knowledge evaluation. The reasoning paths generated by the model exhibit high interpretability, enabling deeper exploration of the model's understanding of structured knowledge. Ultimately, the proposed model achieves outstanding results compared to existing baselines in knowledge graph reasoning tasks.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Safety Alignment via Constrained Knowledge Unlearning

Despite significant progress in safety alignment, large language models (LLMs) remain susceptible to jailbreak attacks. Existing defense mechanisms have not fully deleted harmful knowledge in LLMs, which allows such attacks to bypass safeguards and produce harmful outputs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel safety alignment strategy, Constrained Knowledge Unlearning (CKU), which focuses on two primary objectives: knowledge localization and retention, and unlearning harmful knowledge. CKU works by scoring neurons in specific multilayer perceptron (MLP) layers to identify a subset U of neurons associated with useful knowledge. During the unlearning process, CKU prunes the gradients of neurons in U to preserve valuable knowledge while effectively mitigating harmful content. Experimental results demonstrate that CKU significantly enhances model safety without compromising overall performance, offering a superior balance between safety and utility compared to existing methods. Additionally, our analysis of neuron knowledge sensitivity across various MLP layers provides valuable insights into the mechanics of safety alignment and model knowledge editing.

cs.CL↗