Faithful Uncertainties in ML-Based Inverse Problems: GPs, NNs and NTKs for the Triplet PDF

Abstract

Machine-learning methods are increasingly used to solve inverse problems in physics, where a faithful estimate of the uncertainty on the reconstructed function is as important as its central value. We address this question in the simplest instance of a parton distribution function (PDF) determination: the reconstruction of the non-singlet triplet distribution $T_3(x,Q_0^2)$ from deep-inelastic scattering data. Within a closure-test framework, in which the underlying PDF is known and the pseudo-data carry correlated experimental uncertainties, we compare Gaussian processes with different kernels, neural-network ensembles trained with different loss functions, and empirical neural tangent kernel approximations. We find that methods yielding comparable central reconstructions can produce markedly different uncertainties, and we identify the ingredients that control them: a likelihood that includes the full experimental covariance, the functional prior encoded in the kernel or in the endpoint preprocessing, and, for tangent-kernel approximations, the stage of training at which the kernel is evaluated. A normalised-bias diagnostic shows that calibration depends on the correlations of the predictive covariance, not only on its pointwise width. Our results illustrate why closure tests and covariance-aware diagnostics are essential to validate uncertainties in ML-based approaches to inverse problems.