arXiv subjects

Maria Ubiali

Publications and source records attributed to Maria Ubiali.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty in Physics and AI: Taxonomy, Quantification, and Validation

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for physics, introducing a unified taxonomy of uncertainty and clarifying the interpretation of predictive and inference uncertainties across frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We discuss principled validation tools, including coverage, calibration, bias tests, and proper scoring rules, and illustrate them with simple regression and classification examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Proton Structure from Neural Simulation-Based Inference at the LHC

The precise determination of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton is an essential ingredient for LHC analyses, including for those at the upcoming High-Luminosity LHC. So far, PDFs are determined from global fits to binned low-dimensional data obtained from unfolded hard-scattering cross section measurements. In this work we demonstrate for the first time the feasibility of neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) for constraining the proton PDFs using a high-dimensional unbinned data set. Exploiting the full statistical power of unbinned data removes the loss of information inherited by the binning procedure. As a proof-of-concept, we determine the gluon PDF from simulated data of top quark pair production at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV. Taking into account both experimental and theoretical systematic uncertainties in the detector-level features, we demonstrate how the NSBI pipeline achieves significant improvements in precision compared to existing low-dimensional binned analyses. Our results illustrate the potential of unbinned inference to reduce the reliance on coarse approximations of uncertainties and their correlations entering PDF determinations, hence contributing to a new paradigm of unbinned detector-level ML-assisted measurements at the LHC.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Parton distribution functions and theory parameters: an NNPDF perspective

Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) are a key ingredient in theoretical predictions for Large Hadron Collider (LHC) observables and play a central role in the extraction of precision Standard Model (SM) and Beyond the SM (BSM) parameters from LHC data. Recent analyses demonstrate that the determination of fundamental SM parameters such as $\alpha_s(m_Z)$, $m_W$, $m_t$, and $\sin^2\theta_W$ is strongly influenced by the choice of input PDFs. In this contribution, we present the status and challenges of PDF determination from the NNPDF perspective, both in stand-alone fits and in joint extractions with (B)SM parameters. We place particular emphasis on results for $\alpha_s(m_Z)$, $m_t$, and Wilson coefficients in the SM Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) framework.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Tailored PDFs for New Physics searches

Given the non-negligible interplay between parton distribution functions (PDFs) at large x and potential New Physics (NP) effects in the high-energy tails of hadron collider observables, a central question is which PDFs can be reliably employed in beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) analyses. In this work, we examine the fine balance between using PDF sets with small uncertainties in the large-x region -- crucial for maximising BSM sensitivity -- and adopting conservative PDF fits that exclude high-energy data potentially contaminated by unaccounted NP contributions. We systematically assess a range of conservative PDF fitting strategies designed to mitigate such biases and provide a recommendation for the class of PDFs best suited for robust BSM searches. In addition, we investigate the alternative approach of performing simultaneous fits of Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) Wilson coefficients and PDFs, thereby consistently accounting for their mutual correlations. Starting from a toy model to illustrate the underlying mechanisms, we then analyse two realistic NP scenarios: one modifying high-mass Drell-Yan production and another affecting the high-invariant-mass tail of top-quark pair production. Both cases are representative of measurements that will be probed with high precision during the High-Luminosity phase of the LHC.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Modern Machine Learning and Particle Physics Phenomenology at the LHC

Modern machine learning is driving a paradigm shift in particle physics phenomenology at the Large Hadron Collider. This short review examines the transformative role of machine learning across the entire theoretical prediction pipeline, from parton-level calculations to full simulations. We discuss applications to scattering amplitude computations, phase space integration, Parton Distribution Function determination, and parameter extraction. Some critical frontiers for the field including uncertainty quantification, the role of symmetries, and interpretability are highlighted.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

A global analysis of ALP-mediated multiboson production at the LHC

Axion-like particles (ALPs) provide a well-motivated framework for physics beyond the Standard Model, coupling to gauge bosons through dimension-five operators protected by an approximate shift symmetry. At the LHC, such interactions lead to distinctive signatures in multiboson production, where the ALP appears as an off-shell mediator rather than a narrow resonance. In this work, we present the first global analysis of ALP-mediated multiboson processes, combining measurements of diphoton, ZZ, $W^+ W^-$, dijet, and vector-boson-fusion final states. On the theory side, motivated from a UV perspective, we assume that the ALP couples only to the gauge sector of the SM, and classify the ALP-multiboson vertices that directly govern collider observables. Our results show that the dijet channel dominates the sensitivity to ALP couplings and determines the limits on $c_{\tilde{G}}$, while diboson and VBF processes provide complementary constraints on the electroweak couplings. We further assess the validity of the EFT expansion given the multi-TeV scales probed in the data. This global study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of ALP-gauge interactions from multiboson production at the LHC, and highlights the opportunities for significant improvements with future high-luminosity datasets.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Colibri: A new tool for fast-flying PDF fits

We present Colibri, an open-source Python code that provides a general and flexible tool for PDF fits. The code is built so that users can implement their own PDF model, and use the built-in functionalities of Colibri for a fast computation of observables. It grants easy access to experimental data, several error propagation methodologies, including the Hessian method, the Monte Carlo replica method, and an efficient numerical Bayesian sampling algorithm. To demonstrate the capabilities of Colibri, we consider its simplest application: a polynomial PDF parametrisation. We perform closure tests using a full set of DIS data and compare the results of Hessian and Monte Carlo fits with those from a Bayesian fit. We further discuss how the functionalities illustrated in this example can be extended to more complex PDF parametrisations. In particular, the Bayesian framework in Colibri provides a principled approach to model selection and model averaging, making it a valuable tool for benchmarking and combining different PDF parametrisations on solid statistical grounds.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Probing the coupling of axions to tops and gluons with LHC measurements

We study axion-like particles (ALPs) whose dominant interactions are with gluons and third-generation quarks, and whose couplings to light Standard Model (SM) particles arise at one loop. These loop-induced effects lead to ALP decays and production channels that can be probed at the LHC, even when tree-level couplings are absent. Using an effective field theory (EFT) description that includes momentum-dependent corrections from radiative effects, we reinterpret a wide range of LHC measurements via the CONTUR framework to derive model-independent constraints on the ALP parameter space. We show that LHC data place meaningful bounds in the plane of effective couplings $c^0_t/f_a$ and $c^0_{\tilde G}/f_a$, and that these limits are sensitive to the UV origin of the ALP-top and ALP-gluon couplings. We discuss representative scenarios where either $c^0_t$ or $c^0_{\tilde G}$ vanishes at the matching scale, and highlight the role of EFT running and mixing in generating observable signals. We also assess the domain of validity of the EFT approach by comparing the typical momentum transfer $\sqrt{\hat s}$ in sensitive regions to the underlying scale $f_a$. Our results demonstrate the power of loop-aware EFT reinterpretation of SM measurements in probing otherwise elusive ALP scenarios. The framework presented here can be readily extended to include couplings to other fermions and to accommodate ALP decay or long-lived signatures.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Angular Coefficients from Interpretable Machine Learning with Symbolic Regression

We explore the use of symbolic regression to derive compact analytical expressions for angular observables relevant to electroweak boson production at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Focusing on the angular coefficients that govern the decay distributions of $W$ and $Z$ bosons, we investigate whether symbolic models can well approximate these quantities, typically computed via computationally costly numerical procedures, with high fidelity and interpretability. Using the PySR package, we first validate the approach in controlled settings, namely in angular distributions in lepton-lepton collisions in QED and in leading-order Drell-Yan production at the LHC. We then apply symbolic regression to extract closed-form expressions for the angular coefficients $A_i$ as functions of transverse momentum, rapidity, and invariant mass, using next-to-leading order simulations of $pp \to \ell^+\ell^-$ events. Our results demonstrate that symbolic regression can produce accurate and generalisable expressions that match Monte Carlo predictions within uncertainties, while preserving interpretability and providing insight into the kinematic dependence of angular observables.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

A linear PDF model for Bayesian inference

A robust uncertainty estimate in global analyses of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) is essential at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), especially in view of the high-precision data anticipated by experimentalists in the High-Luminosity phase of the LHC. A Bayesian framework to determine PDFs provides a rigorous treatment of uncertainties and full control on the prior, though its practical implementation can be computationally demanding. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach to PDF determination tailored for Bayesian inference, based on the use of linear models. Unlike traditional parametrisations, our method represents PDFs as vectors in a functional space spanned by specially chosen bases, derived from the dimensional reduction of a neural network functional space, providing a compact yet versatile representation of PDFs. The low-dimensionality of the preferred models allows for particularly fast inference. The size of the bases can be systematically adjusted, allowing for transparent control over underfitting and overfitting, and facilitating principled model selection through Bayesian workflows. In this work, the methodology is applied to a fit of Deep Inelastic Scattering synthetic data, and thoroughly tested via multi-closure tests, thus paving the way to its application to global PDF fits.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating the faithfulness of PDF uncertainties in the presence of inconsistent data

We critically assess the robustness of uncertainties on parton distribution functions (PDFs) determined using neural networks from global sets of experimental data collected from multiple experiments. We view the determination of PDFs as an inverse problem, and we study the way the neural network model tackles it when inconsistencies between input datasets are present. We use a closure test approach, in which the regression model is applied to artificial data produced from a known underlying truth, to which the output of the model can be compared and its accuracy can be assessed in a statistically reliable way. We explore various phenomenologically relevant scenarios in which inconsistencies arise due to incorrect estimation of correlated systematic uncertainties. We show that the neural network generally corrects for the inconsistency except in cases of extreme uncertainty underestimation. When the inconsistency is not corrected, we propose and validate a procedure to detect inconsistencies.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

Parton distributions confront LHC Run II data: a quantitative appraisal

We present a systematic comparison of theoretical predictions and various high-precision experimental measurements, specifically of differential cross sections performed by the LHC run II for Drell-Yan gauge boson, top-quark pair, single-inclusive jet and di-jet production, and by HERA for single-inclusive jet and di-jet production. Theoretical predictions are computed at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) accuracy in perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics. The most widely employed sets of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) are used, and PDF, strong coupling, and missing higher order uncertainties are taken into account. We quantitatively assess the predictive power of each PDF set and the contribution of the different sources of experimental and theoretical uncertainty to the agreement between data and predictions. We show that control over all of these aspects is crucial to precision physics studies, such as the determination of Standard Model parameters at the LHC.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Symbolic regression for precision LHC physics

We study the potential of symbolic regression (SR) to derive compact and precise analytic expressions that can improve the accuracy and simplicity of phenomenological analyses at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). As a benchmark, we apply SR to equation recovery in quantum electrodynamics (QED), where established analytical results from quantum field theory provide a reliable framework for evaluation. This benchmark serves to validate the performance and reliability of SR before extending its application to structure functions in the Drell-Yan process mediated by virtual photons, which lack analytic representations from first principles. By combining the simplicity of analytic expressions with the predictive power of machine learning techniques, SR offers a useful tool for facilitating phenomenological analyses in high energy physics.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Combination of aN$^3$LO PDFs and implications for Higgs production cross-sections at the LHC

We discuss how the two existing approximate N$^3$LO (aN$^3$LO) sets of parton distributions (PDFs) from the MSHT20 and NNPDF4.0 series can be combined for LHC phenomenology, both in the pure QCD case and for the QCD$\otimes$QED sets that include the photon PDF. Using the resulting combinations, we present predictions for the total inclusive cross-section for Higgs production in gluon fusion, vector boson fusion, and associated production at the LHC Run-3. For the gluon fusion and vector boson fusion channels, the corrections that arise when using correctly matched aN$^3$LO PDFs with N$^3$LO cross section calculations, compared to using NNLO PDFs, are significant, in many cases larger than the PDF uncertainty, and generally larger than the differences between the two aN$^3$LO PDF sets entering the combination. The combined aN$^3$LO PDF sets, MSHT20xNNPDF40_an3lo and MSHT20xNNPDF40_an3lo_qed, are made publicly available in the LHAPDF format and can be readily used for LHC phenomenology.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Unravelling New Physics Signals at the HL-LHC with Low-Energy Constraints

Recent studies suggest that global fits of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) might inadvertently 'fit away' signs of new physics in the high-energy tails of the distributions measured at the high luminosity programme of the LHC (HL-LHC). This could lead to spurious effects that might conceal key BSM signatures and hinder the success of indirect searches for new physics. In this letter, we demonstrate that future deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) measurements at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), and at CERN via FASER$\nu$ and SND@LHC at LHC Run III, and the future neutrino experiments to be hosted at the proposed Forward Physics Facility (FPF) at the HL-LHC, provide complementary constraints on large-$x$ sea quarks. These constraints are crucial to mitigate the risk of missing key BSM signals, by enabling precise constraints on large-$x$ PDFs through a 'BSM-safe' integration of both high- and low-energy data, which is essential for a robust interpretation of the high-energy measurements.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Parton Distribution Functions and Their Impact on Precision of the Current Theory Calculations

The unprecedented precision of experimental measurements at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the increased statistics that will be reached in the High-Luminosity phase of the LHC (HL-LHC) are pushing the phenomenology community to a new precision frontier, in which new challenges present themselves and new questions arise. A key ingredients of theoretical predictions at hadron colliders are the Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton. This contribution highlights some of the new developments in the determination of PDFs from a global set of experimental data, from approximate N3LO PDFs and the inclusion of theory uncertainties in PDF fits, to the realisation of the non trivial interplay between parton densities at large-x and possible signals of New Physics in high energy tails of the distributions, which highlights the synergy between high energy and low energy experimental programs.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

Di-Higgs production via Axion-Like Particles

Due to the pseudo-scalar nature of the axion-like particle (ALP), the CP- conserving production of two Higgs bosons via the ALP necessarily involves an additional Z or $\gamma$ boson. We examine the existing constraints from di-Higgs searches at Run 2 of the LHC and find that, despite the presence of extra objects in the final state, these searches are sensitive to a combination of ALP couplings to gluons and three-bosons in the TeV scale range. Additionally, we propose a specialized search strategy incorporating an energetic leptonic Z boson. This refined ALP-induced production process would allow for the identification of the h h $\rightarrow$ 4 b-jet final state and could potentially probe the TeV scale using data from Run 2 of the LHC. This production process can also occur through a coupling between the top quark and the ALP. We translate the current constraints on di-Higgs production into new limits on the ALP-top coupling.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2024

The Path to N$^3$LO Parton Distributions

We extend the existing leading (LO), next-to-leading (NLO), and next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) NNPDF4.0 sets of parton distribution functions (PDFs) to approximate next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (aN$^3$LO). We construct an approximation to the N$^3$LO splitting functions that includes all available partial information from both fixed-order computations and from small and large $x$ resummation, and estimate the uncertainty on this approximation by varying the set of basis functions used to construct the approximation. We include known N$^3$LO corrections to deep-inelastic scattering structure functions and extend the FONLL general-mass scheme to $\mathcal{O}\left( \alpha_s^3\right)$ accuracy. We determine a set of aN$^3$LO PDFs by accounting both for the uncertainty on splitting functions due to the incomplete knowledge of N$^3$LO terms, and to the uncertainty related to missing higher corrections (MHOU), estimated by scale variation, through a theory covariance matrix formalism. We assess the perturbative stability of the resulting PDFs, we study the impact of MHOUs on them, and we compare our results to the aN$^3$LO PDFs from the MSHT group. We examine the phenomenological impact of aN$^3$LO corrections on parton luminosities at the LHC, and give a first assessment of the impact of aN$^3$LO PDFs on the Higgs and Drell-Yan total production cross-sections. We find that the aN$^3$LO NNPDF4.0 PDFs are consistent within uncertainties with their NNLO counterparts, that they improve the description of the global dataset and the perturbative convergence of Higgs and Drell-Yan cross-sections, and that MHOUs on PDFs decrease substantially with the increase of perturbative order.

hep-ph↗