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arXiv · 2610.42073

Measurement-Based Assessment of Decadal Inertia and Primary Frequency Response Trends in the US Eastern Interconnection

Saurav Dulal·Mark Baldwin·Narges Ghiasi·Mohammed Olama·Ali R. Ekti·Nils M. Stenvig·Yilu Liu
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Abstract

Changes in the generation mix of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI) raise questions about long-term frequency performance, particularly inertia and primary frequency response (PFR). This paper jointly examines these characteristics using synchronized FNET/GridEye frequency measurements and confirmed generation-trip events from 2013 to 2025. A representative EI frequency trajectory is constructed using the median of geographically distributed measurements. Effective inertia is estimated quarterly from the early post-disturbance rate of change of frequency (RoCoF), using a 3-second window and least-squares fitting. PFR is evaluated using the beta metric, which measures aggregate frequency response from disturbance size and the A-to-B frequency deviation. Annual beta estimates are obtained after filtering events by starting frequency and disturbance size to improve comparability across years. Results show that EI effective inertia varies seasonally and follows a non-monotonic trend rather than a uniform long-term decline. Over the same period, coal generation decreased while natural gas, wind, and solar generation increased. Changes in synchronous generator commitment and operating conditions may have offset some expected inertia reductions. Filtered beta generally increased from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, with year-to-year variability thereafter. The different trends show that early inertial behavior and broader aggregate frequency response have not evolved in parallel. Joint analysis of inertia and beta offers a more complete measurement-based assessment of EI frequency performance during the generation transition.

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Saurav Dulal, Mark Baldwin, Narges Ghiasi, Mohammed Olama, Ali R. Ekti, Nils M. Stenvig, Yilu Liu. 2026-10-30. Measurement-Based Assessment of Decadal Inertia and Primary Frequency Response Trends in the US Eastern Interconnection. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.42073

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