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arXiv · 2611.08859

Instant Payments After a Betting Ban: Evidence from Brazil

Rafael Voigtel·Guilherme Vianna
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Abstract

Brazil has been facing major problems with delinquency, household debt, high interest rates, consumption, and access to credit. Betting has emerged in public debate as a possible contributing factor. On September 25, 2026, the federal government banned betting nationwide. We investigate how the ban affected instant payments (Pix). Our main finding, under the linear-trend specification, is that cumulative transaction counts over 37 days were approximately 8.37% below forecast, while settlement values were 10.83% lower. Both deviations were statistically significant under this specification.

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Rafael Voigtel, Guilherme Vianna. 2026-11-06. Instant Payments After a Betting Ban: Evidence from Brazil. https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.08859

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