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The mechanism of double exponential growth in hyper-inflation

Takayuki Mizuno·Misako Takayasu·Hideki Takayasu
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Abstract

Analyzing historical data of price indices we find an extraordinary growth phenomenon in several examples of hyper-inflation in which price changes are approximated nicely by double-exponential functions of time. In order to explain such behavior we introduce the general coarse-graining technique in physics, the Monte Carlo renormalization group method, to the price dynamics. Starting from a microscopic stochastic equation describing dealers' actions in open markets we obtain a macroscopic noiseless equation of price consistent with the observation. The effect of auto-catalytic shortening of characteristic time caused by mob psychology is shown to be responsible for the double-exponential behavior.

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Takayuki Mizuno, Misako Takayasu, Hideki Takayasu. 2001-12-24. The mechanism of double exponential growth in hyper-inflation. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(02)00598-8

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