Volatile Decision Dynamics: Experiments, Stochastic Description, Intermittency Control, and Traffic Optimization

Dirk Helbing; Martin Schoenhof; Daniel Kern

doi:10.1088/1367-2630/4/1/333

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arXiv · cond-mat/0112479

Volatile Decision Dynamics: Experiments, Stochastic Description, Intermittency Control, and Traffic Optimization

Dirk Helbing·Martin Schoenhof·Daniel Kern

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Abstract

The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc., they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified ways of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems, and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.

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Dirk Helbing, Martin Schoenhof, Daniel Kern. 2002-10-02. Volatile Decision Dynamics: Experiments, Stochastic Description, Intermittency Control, and Traffic Optimization. https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630%2F4%2F1%2F333

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