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Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries

Dietrich Stauffer
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Abstract

Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.

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Dietrich Stauffer. 2002-04-14. Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries. https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204306

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