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Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Shree Khare·Stephen Jewson
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Abstract

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.

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Shree Khare, Stephen Jewson. 2005-07-21. Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers. https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507165

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