arXiv subjects

Shree Khare

Publications and source records attributed to Shree Khare.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2007

Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes based on the prediction of the number of basin hurricanes. We have described a number of SST prediction methods in previous work. We now investigate the empirical relationship between SST and basin hurricane numbers, and put this together with the SST predictions to make predictions of both basin and landfalling hurricane numbers.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2007

Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and \emph{Landfalling} Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple statistical models for that relationship, using data from 1900 to 2005 and data from 1950 to 2005, and for both all hurricane numbers and intense hurricane numbers. The results are very different from the corresponding analysis for basin hurricane numbers.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2006

Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then. We now make this model a little more subtle, and account for the possibility of four different levels of mean hurricane activity since 1900.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2005

Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2005

Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.

physics.ao-ph↗