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Universal patterns underlying ongoing wars and terrorism

Neil F. Johnson·Mike Spagat·Jorge A. Restrepo·Oscar Becerra·Juan Camilo Bohorquez·Nicolas Suarez·Elvira Maria Restrepo·Roberto Zarama
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Abstract

We report a remarkable universality in the patterns of violence arising in three high-profile ongoing wars, and in global terrorism. Our results suggest that these quite different conflict arenas currently feature a common type of enemy, i.e. the various insurgent forces are beginning to operate in a similar way regardless of their underlying ideologies, motivations and the terrain in which they operate. We provide a microscopic theory to explain our main observations. This theory treats the insurgent force as a generic, self-organizing system which is dynamically evolving through the continual coalescence and fragmentation of its constituent groups.

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Neil F. Johnson, Mike Spagat, Jorge A. Restrepo, Oscar Becerra, Juan Camilo Bohorquez, Nicolas Suarez, Elvira Maria Restrepo, Roberto Zarama. 2006-05-03. Universal patterns underlying ongoing wars and terrorism. https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0605035

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