arXiv subjects

Abraham Loeb

Publications and source records attributed to Abraham Loeb.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dark energy, spatial curvature, and star formation efficiency from JWST photometric and spectroscopic high-redshift galaxies

Early observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have revealed an overabundance of massive high-redshift galaxies, raising the question of whether this points to new physics beyond $Λ$CDM, or an enhanced formation efficiency of massive stars. We revisit this issue going beyond earlier analyses based on direct comparisons to theoretical bounds at a fixed cosmology, by performing a full Bayesian analysis of the most extreme galaxies in the CEERS imaging and FRESCO spectroscopic samples, jointly constraining cosmological parameters and the baryon-to-star conversion efficiency $ε$. We do so not only within the spatially flat $Λ$CDM model, but also in models where the dark energy equation of state $w$ and/or the spatial curvature parameter $Ω_K$ are allowed to vary, carefully discussing the impact of both $w$ and $Ω_K$ on the cumulative comoving stellar mass density. Within the flat $Λ$CDM model, once cosmological parameters are marginalized over, the CEERS sample provides a weak $2σ$ lower limit of $ε\gtrsim 0.07$, compatible with astrophysical expectations. In contrast, the FRESCO sample requires $ε\gtrsim 0.5$ at $2σ$, with values $ε\lesssim 0.2$ disfavored at $>5σ$. These results do not qualitatively change when we allow $w$ and/or $Ω_K$ to vary, with no evidence for deviations from $w=-1$ or $Ω_K=0$. Our results therefore suggest that the origin of the ``JWST tension'' is unlikely to be cosmological, but lies in the astrophysics of galaxy formation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

From Anomaly to Candidate Technosignature: The Threshold Problem of the Loeb Scale

Recent work on the Loeb Scale has provided astronomy a structured framework for assessing anomalous interstellar objects, including a quantitative mapping of a classification ranking, its evolution with the addition of data, and a broader observational strategy for firming its verdict. What remains unclear is the epistemic and methodological meaning of the threshold built into that framework. Here we argue that the central philosophical issue is no longer whether astronomy can define such a threshold, but how a threshold already in place should regulate scientific inquiry under uncertainty. We suggest that candidate technosignature status, such as Level 4 on the Loeb Scale, should be understood as an intermediate epistemic status: stronger than permissive openness, weaker than confirmation, yet sufficient to justify methodological escalation. The argument proceeds in three steps. First, it reconstructs the recent philosophical debate through the work of Lomas, Lane, and Cowie. Second, it turns to historical cases discussed by Kaplan (2026) to show that important discoveries are often delayed not only by weak evidence, but also by paradigms, prestige, and institutional filtering. Third, it interprets candidate status as a form of structured scientific commitment under uncertainty, one that justifies intensified observation, broader hypothesis management, and more deliberate allocation of attention and resources without licensing belief in artificial origin. The paper concludes by arguing that AI should not be the arbitrator in deducing an extraterrestrial origin, but can support the detection, comparison, and prioritization of anomalies once a candidate status has been formally recognized.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2026

Linking System of Jets to the Non-Gravitational Acceleration of 3I/ATLAS

Building on the jet morphology and periodic wobble analysis of 3I/ATLAS in Scarmato & Loeb (2026), we link observed jet position angles (PAs) and the non-gravitational acceleration components (A1,A2,A3) in the 3D RTN (radial, transverse, normal) frame relative to the Sun. We: (i) compute RTN directions from heliocentric state vectors and project them on the sky at the measured astromet ric pointings; (ii) compare projected RTN PAs to three persistent jets (Jet1-Jet2-Jet3) and quantify angular offsets; and (iii) estimate order-of-magnitude thrust and accelerations from HST/WFC3-UVIS F350LP net counts via transformations from photometry to cross-section, dust mass, mass-loss rate, and thrust. We explicitly document the uncertainties through background handling, phase-function systematics, and geometric degeneracies along the line of sight. For U.T. 2025-11-30.80903, Jet2 is aligned with the projected transverse direction to within 0.5 degs, while Jet3 is the closest to the pro jected normal direction with a moderate offset (about 25 degs). For UT 2025-12-27, Jet2 exhibits a monotonic PA drift over 24 minutes with a larger oscillation amplitude.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Inferring the mass and size of 3I/ATLAS from its non-gravitational acceleration

Observations of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS have revealed a strong production of gas and dust near perihelion, together with rapid brightening. The outgassing from the nucleus has led to a detectable non-gravitational acceleration. In this work, we combine models of the mass loss rate of water and carbon dioxide to derive the non-gravitational parameters and estimate the mass and size of 3I/ATLAS. In addition, we take into account a conservative constraint on the nucleus size from the active surface area required for sublimation. If the mass loss is dominated by the sublimation of CO$_2$, then the nucleus radius and mass are $R_{\rm 3I}=0.42\,\rm{km}$ and $M_{\rm 3I}=1.6\times10^{11}\,\rm{kg}$, assuming a density of $ρ=0.5\,\rm{g\,cm}^{-3}$ and an asymmetry factor of $ζ=0.5$. This estimate is consistent with the lower bound from the active surface and independently supported by the slight preference of the orbital fit for a $a_{\rm ng}(r)\sim 1/r^2$ scaling of the non-gravitational acceleration. Models that cover the range of reported water production near perihelion give $R_{3I}=0.74-1.15\,\rm{km}$ and $M_{\rm 3I}=8.5-32\times10^{11}\,\rm{kg}$ but require a cometary surface that is in tension with the estimate from the rocket effect. Therefore, our results indicate that a large fraction of water sublimation is occurring in the coma and that CO$_2$ dominates sublimation on the surface. The nucleus radius that we obtain is much smaller than a recent photometric estimate of $R_{\rm 3I}\sim 1.3\,\rm{km}$, which could be resolved if CO$_2$ production is larger than observed or if the density of 3I/ATLAS is significantly lower than assumed. An overall lighter nucleus of 3I/ATLAS might be favored based on its recently claimed origin from a metal-poor environment and the corresponding mass budget of interstellar objects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Fading into darkness: A weak mass ejection and low-efficiency fallback accompanying black hole formation in M31-2014-DS1

Stellar-mass black holes (BHs) can form from the near-complete collapse of massive stars, causing them to abruptly disappear. The star M31-2014-DS1 in the Andromeda galaxy was reported to exhibit such a disappearance between 2014 and 2022, with properties consistent with the failed explosion of a $\approx 12 - 13$ M$_\odot$ yellow supergiant leading to the formation of a $\approx 5$ M$_\odot$ BH. We present mid-infrared (MIR) observations of the remnant obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and X-ray observations from the Chandra X-ray Observatory in 2024. The JWST MIRI/NIRSpec data reveal an extremely red source, showing strong blueshifted absorption from molecular gas (CO, CO$_2$, H$_2$O, SO$_2$) and deep silicate dust features. Modeling the dust continuum confirms continued bolometric fading of the central source to $\log(L/L_\odot)\approx3.88$ ($\approx7-8$% of the progenitor luminosity), surrounded by a dust shell spanning $\approx40-200$ au. Modeling of the molecular gas indicates $\sim 0.1$ M$_\odot$ of gas expanding at $\approx 100$ km s$^{-1}$ near the inner edge of the dust shell. No X-ray source is detected down to a luminosity limit of $L_X\lesssim1.5\times10^{35}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We show that the panchromatic observations are explained by (i) a low-energy ($\approx10^{46}$ erg) ejection of the outer H-rich progenitor envelope and (ii) a fading central BH powered by inefficient ($\sim0.1$% in mass) accretion of loosely bound fallback material. The analysis robustly establishes the bolometric fading of M31-2014-DS1 and provides the first cohesive insights into BH formation via low-energy explosions and long-term fallback.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Electromagnetic Radiation from Cosmic-Ray Scatterings on Relic Neutrinos

Cosmic-ray scatterings on the cosmic neutrino background induce a flux of gamma-rays and X-rays from boosted meson decays and charged lepton processes. Here we present the first estimate of this flux and its cumulative cosmological contribution. Confronting expectations with Fermi-LAT diffuse gamma-ray data, we find a limit on the cosmic neutrino background overdensity at the level of $η\lesssim 2 \times 10^{4}$ for a lightest neutrino mass of $m_ν\gtrsim0.1$ eV, orders of magnitude stronger than current direct laboratory probes, and comparable to constraints on the cosmic neutrino background obtained with IceCube. We further show that X-ray synchrotron emission from cascade electron-positron pairs in intergalactic magnetic fields provides a complementary, albeit weaker, constraint. We discuss how anisotropic signatures and future gamma-ray data from CTA could further improve bounds on the relic neutrino overdensity, approaching in sensitivity the $Λ$CDM expected density.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Disappearance of a massive star in the Andromeda Galaxy due to formation of a black hole

When a massive star reaches the end of its lifetime, its core collapses and releases neutrinos that drive a shock into the outer layers (stellar envelope). A sufficiently strong shock ejects the envelope, producing a supernova. If the shock fails to eject it, the envelope is predicted to fall back onto the collapsing core, producing a stellar-mass black hole (BH) and causing the star to disappear. We report observations of M31-2014-DS1, a hydrogen-depleted supergiant in the Andromeda Galaxy. In 2014 it brightened in the mid-infrared. From 2017 to 2022 it faded by factors of $\gtrsim10^4$ in optical light, becoming undetectable, and $\gtrsim10$ in total light. We interpret these observations, and those of a previous event in NGC 6946, as evidence for failed supernovae forming stellar-mass BHs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database

We report the identification of two previously unrecognized interstellar meteor candidates in the NASA CNEOS fireball database. Using the empirically calibrated low-discrepancy uncertainty model of Peña-Asensio et al.\ (2025) for post-2018 CNEOS velocity accuracy (1$σ$: speed 0.55~km~s$^{-1}$, right ascension 1.35$^\circ$, declination 0.84$^\circ$), we transform CNEOS velocity vectors to heliocentric orbits and assess interstellar candidacy via $10^{6}$-draw Monte Carlo simulations. Two post-2018 events have heliocentric speeds robustly exceeding the Solar System escape speed. CNEOS-22 (2022-07-28; 6.0$^\circ$S, 86.9$^\circ$W; eastern tropical Pacific) has $v_{\rm hel}=46.98$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 5.18 \pm 0.60$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=8.7σ$), with interstellar speed $v_{\infty,\odot}=21.5$~km~s$^{-1}$. CNEOS-25 (2025-02-12; 73.4$^\circ$N, 49.3$^\circ$E; Barents Sea) has $v_{\rm hel}=45.63$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 3.22 \pm 0.58$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=5.5σ$), with $v_{\infty,\odot}=16.9$~km~s$^{-1}$. For both events, none of $10^{6}$ realizations yield a gravitationally bound orbit ($p_{\rm bound} < 3\times 10^{-6}$). The adopted error model would need to underestimate the true uncertainties by factors of 5--9 for either candidate to be marginally bound.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

A Comprehensive Network for the Discovery and Characterization of Interstellar Objects

Interstellar object (ISO) astronomy has rapidly emerged over the past decade as a new frontier in planetary astrophysics, yet current observations remain limited by short visibility windows, inference degeneracies and fragmented follow-up capabilities. We argue that these constraints are structural rather than incidental and motivate a coordinated, end-to-end observational strategy for future ISO studies. We propose the Comprehensive ISO Network (CISON) which combines dual hemisphere wide-field discovery with rapid high resolution characterization and selective escalation to interceptor missions. By coupling this architecture to the differential formulation of the Loeb Scale, ISO classification and risk assessment become predictive rather than reactive. This framework transforms ISO astronomy into a mature, scalable discipline capable of maximizing scientific return and informing planetary defense in the coming decades.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Increased and Varied Radiation during the Sun's Encounters with Cold Clouds in the last 10 million years

Recent research raises the possibility that 3 and 7 million years ago, the Sun encountered massive clouds that shrank the heliosphere--the solar cocoon protecting our solar system--exposing Earth to its interstellar environment, in agreement with geological evidence from 60Fe and 244Pu isotopes. Here we show that during such encounters Earth was exposed to increased radiation in the form of high-energy particles. During periods of Earth's immersion in the heliosphere, it received particle radiation that we name Heliospheric Energetic Particles (HEPs). The intensity of < 10 MeV protons was at least an order of magnitude more intense than today's most extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SEPs today last minutes to hours, but HEP exposure then lasted for extensive periods of several months, making it a prolonged external driver. During Earth's excursion outside the heliosphere, it was exposed to a galactic cosmic ray radiation with the intensity of < 1 GeV protons at least an order of magnitude more intense than today. Therefore, the space surrounding Earth was permeated by a variable high-energy radiation. We discuss the implications for Earth's climate and biodiversity.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Rotation Period of 3I/ATLAS After Perihelion from Jet Position Angle Wobble and Photometric Variability

We determine the post-perihelion rotation period of 3I/ATLAS using two independent diagnostics: the temporal modulation of the position angle (PA) of a persistent jet-like feature, and a time-series photometric light curve in the Gr (R) band. For the jet morphology, we measure the PA at multiple epochs by applying the Larson-Sekanina Rotational Gradient filter to Hubble Space Telescope images between November 20, 2025 and December 27, 2025, and model the phase-folded PA curve with weighted least-squares Fourier series up to two harmonics while scanning trial periods P to identify minima in \c{hi}2(P). For the photometry, we adopt the best-fit period from an independent 30-minute binned analysis (from a 0.25 meter telescope MPC L92) based on a refined \c{hi}2(P) profile for a sinusoidal model with nightly offsets. We find that the jet-PA modulation gives a period Pjet = 7.20 +/-0.05 h (adopting a conservative uncertainty dominated by sparse sampling and systematics), while the photometry yields Pphot = 7.136+/-0.001 h (formal 1σ uncertainty). Although the periods differ slightly, the offset is plausibly attributable to non-Gaussian systematics and aliasing. The combined data supports a post-perihelion rotation period of 7.1 h associated with precession of the jet structure around the rotation axis by 20°. The rotation axis is aligned with the sunward direction to within 20°

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Rare Near-Opposition Alignment of 3I/ATLAS on 22 January, 2026

We point out that on 22 January 2026, the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS will align to within an exceptionally small angle, alpha= 0.69 degrees, with the Earth-Sun axis. This rare alignment provides unique circumstances for measuring the opposition surge and polarimetric properties of interstellar cometary dust. We characterize the alignment geometry, outline key scientific opportunities, and define the observational requirements for data collection. Observations before and after the alignment time offer an unprecedented opportunity which may not repeat for decades, for characterizing the albedo, structure, and composition of interstellar matter.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Supermassive Stars Match the Spectral Signatures of JWST's Little Red Dots

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has unveiled a population of enigmatic, compact sources at high redshift known as ``Little Red Dots'' (LRDs), whose physical nature remains a subject of intense debate. Concurrently, the rapid assembly of the first supermassive black holes (SMBHs) requires the formation of heavy seeds, for which supermassive stars (SMSs) are leading theoretical progenitors. In this work, we perform the first quantitative test of the hypothesis that LRDs are the direct observational manifestation of these primordial SMSs. We present a novel, first-principles pipeline generating synthetic spectra for a non-rotating, metal-free SMS up to $10^6 \, M_\odot$. We establish that its luminosity ($L_λ\approx 1.7 \times 10^{44} \, \text{erg} \, \text{s}^{-1} \, μ\text{m}^{-1}$ at 4050\,Å) provides a decisive constraint, matching prominent LRDs. Our model self-consistently reproduces their defining spectral features: the V-shaped Balmer break morphology is shown to be an intrinsic photospheric effect, while the complex line phenomenology, strong H$β$ in emission with other Balmer lines in absorption arises from non-LTE effects in a single stellar atmosphere. With wind and macroturbulent broadening, we match LRD spectra at $z=7.76$ and $z=3.55$, including the H$β$ width of MoM-BH*-1 to within 4\%. We predict a luminosity-dependent observability window, $\sim10^{4}$ yr for the most luminous systems and $10^{5}$--$10^{6}$ yr if $L_λ(4050\,\textÅ)$ is lower by 1--2 dex. These results provide a self-consistent alternative to multi-component obscured AGN scenarios and suggest JWST may be witnessing luminous stages of SMBH progenitors before collapse.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Evolving the Loeb Scale

We develop a differential formulation of the Loeb Scale that extends the original static framework into a radially evolving, real time classification scheme for interstellar objects. By promoting each anomaly metric to a function of heliocentric distance and introducing a relaxation equation for the effective score, our method incorporates memory, hysteresis and predictive capability. This allows us to have early, stable forecasts of an object's eventual Loeb level based on sparse data obtained at large distances, which is more helpful to quantify its true nature when near Earth.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Surveys on the Existence of Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life and Effects of Revealing Expert Consensus

Vickers et al. (2025) established that 58.20% of astrobiology experts believe intelligent extraterrestrial life likely exists, providing the first empirical baseline for public comparison. We surveyed 6,114 highly educated and scientifically engaged individuals (77.60% bachelor's degree+; 67.99% high-to-very-high scientific engagement) to assess their beliefs about extraterrestrial intelligent life existence: (1) personal beliefs, (2) perceived social circle beliefs, (3) perceived expert beliefs, and (4) responses to expert consensus revelation. Results showed 95.01% believed extraterrestrial intelligent life exists, with 62.59% holding definitive rather than probable convictions. Participants exhibited massive pluralistic ignorance, a 'cosmic closet', underestimating social circle beliefs by 46.07 percentage points despite near-universal personal conviction. Participants also exhibited a novel 'conviction intensity gap': while overestimating expert belief prevalence (67.63% vs. 58.20% actual), they underestimated expert conviction strength, perceiving only 21.10% as holding definitive beliefs. Experimental revelation of actual consensus (N = 5,106; 83.51% passed manipulation check) produced negligible personal belief change (d = -0.11) and small social belief change (d = 0.14). These findings demonstrate that consensus misperception operates along two dimensions, prevalence and intensity, and that even scientifically engaged audiences resist belief revision via expert consensus information.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

On the coincidence between the close passage of HD7977 and the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition

The Oort Cloud's dynamical evolution is significantly influenced by both the galactic tide and stellar flybys. This study investigates the particular case of HD7977's close encounter 2.47 Myr ago, which likely repopulated the Inner Oort Cloud and potentially triggered a significant comet shower on Earth. Our results demonstrate that the shower's intensity strongly depends on HD7977's impact parameter ($b$), with possible flyby distances ranging from 2,300 AU to $\sim$ 13,000 AU. For the closest approach ($b \sim 2,300$ AU), the terrestrial impact probability of 1 km comets increases by an order of magnitude compared to the steady state, slightly exceeding the asteroid impact probability at this size scale. We propose an analytical method to compute the probability of comet showers impacting Earth, which saves considerable computation time compared to N-body simulations. We identify a threshold diameter $D_0 = 2.25$ km for which yields $P = 1$ in our model, with $D_0$ following a logarithmic dependence on $b$. These findings suggest that HD7977's flyby may have caused an enhanced comet flux during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, which could plausibly be related to the environmental changes at this era.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

The Physics of Cometary Anti-tails as Observed in 3I/ATLAS

Observations of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS at 3.8 au show an elongated coma similar to a cometary tail but pointing in the direction of the Sun, possibly the first instance of this type of anti-tail which is not a result of perspective. We explain the anti-tail as an anisotropic extension of the snow line, or survival radius of a sublimating ice grain, in the direction of the Sun. The anisotropy is due to the difference in the sublimation mass flux in the solar and perpendicular directions caused by the change in the illumination angle of the cometary surface. The stronger sublimation mass flux in the solar direction results in ice grains with larger sizes, longer sublimation lifetimes, and a snow line at a larger radial distance with respect to other directions. The observed radial surface brightness profiles as a function of illumination angle are well reproduced by a Haser-type radial outflow with constant velocity and sublimating ice grains with angularly dependent survival lengths.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Novel Solar System Probes for Primordial Black Holes

Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) represent one of the more interesting ways to address dark matter, at the interface of both cosmology and quantum gravity. It is no surprise then that testing PBHs is a venue of active interest, with several cosmological and astrophysical probes constraining different mass ranges. In this work, we propose novel Solar System scale searches for PBHs, motivated by the unique precision and coverage of local observables. We show that asteroid to dwarf planet mass PBHs can induce measurable dipolar timing signatures in pulsar timing arrays, while planetary mass PBHs can generate detectable ADAF accretion flares through interactions with Kuiper Belt bodies. Together, these complementary approaches open a new observational frontier for probing PBHs across mass ranges that remain unconstrained by conventional cosmological methods.

gr-qc↗