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Adrian L. Melott

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian L. Melott.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

X-Ray Luminous Supernovae: Threats to Terrestrial Biospheres

The spectacular outbursts of energy associated with supernovae (SNe) have long motivated research into their potentially hazardous effects on Earth and analogous environments. Much of this research has focused primarily on the atmospheric damage associated with the prompt arrival of ionizing photons within days or months of the initial outburst, and the high-energy cosmic rays that arrive thousands of years after the explosion. In this study, we turn the focus to persistent X-ray emission, arising in certain SNe that have interactions with a dense circumstellar medium, and observed months and/or years after the initial outburst. The sustained high X-ray luminosity leads to large doses of ionizing radiation out to formidable distances. We provide an assessment of the threat posed by these X-ray luminous SNe by analyzing the collective X-ray observations from Chandra, Swift-XRT, XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and others. We find that this threat is particularly acute for SNe showing evidence of strong circumstellar interaction, such as Type IIn explosions, which have significantly larger ranges of influence than previously expected, and lethal consequences up to $\sim$ 50 pc away. Furthermore, X-ray bright SNe could pose a substantial and distinct threat to terrestrial biospheres, and tighten the Galactic habitable zone. We urge follow-up X-ray observations of interacting SNe for months and years after the explosion to shed light on the physical nature of the emission and its full time evolution, and to clarify the danger that these events pose for life in our Galaxy and other star-forming regions.

astro-ph.HE

Gamma Ray Bursts: Not so Much Deadlier than We Thought

We analyze the additional effect on planetary atmospheres of recently detected gamma-ray burst afterglow photons in the range up to 1 TeV. For an Earth-like atmosphere we find that there is a small additional depletion in ozone versus that modeled for only prompt emission. We also find a small enhancement of muon flux at the planet surface. Overall, we conclude that the additional afterglow emission, even with TeV photons, does not result in a significantly larger impact over that found in past studies.

astro-ph.EP

Supernova Triggers for End-Devonian Extinctions

The Late Devonian was a protracted period of low speciation resulting in biodiversity decline, culminating in extinction events near the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary. Recent evidence indicates that the final extinction event may have coincided with a dramatic drop in stratospheric ozone, possibly due to a global temperature rise. Here we study an alternative possible cause for the postulated ozone drop: a nearby supernova explosion that could inflict damage by accelerating cosmic rays that can deliver ionizing radiation for up to $\sim 100$ kyr. We therefore propose that the end-Devonian extinctions were triggered by supernova explosions at $\sim 20$ pc, somewhat beyond the "kill distance" that would have precipitated a full mass extinction. Such nearby supernovae are likely due to core-collapses of massive stars; these are concentrated in the thin Galactic disk where the Sun resides. Detecting either of the long-lived radioisotopes Sm-146 or Pu-244 in one or more end-Devonian extinction strata would confirm a supernova origin, point to the core-collapse explosion of a massive star, and probe supernova nucleosythesis. Other possible tests of the supernova hypothesis are discussed.

astro-ph.HE

From Cosmic Explosions to Terrestrial Fires?: A Reply

Deschamps and Mottez (hereafter DM) argue that the Gauss-Matuyama terrestrial magnetic field reversal may have left a vanishing main dipole moment to the field for a time of order 10,000 years. They say this may have allowed an enhanced cosmic ray flux, boosting the effect we proposed in Melott and Thomas (2019). We point out that the bulk of the cosmic ray flux from a nearby supernova should be too energetic, up to a million times more energetic than the limits of deflection by the terrestrial magnetic field. In fact, only those highly energetic ones will directly reach the troposphere, relevant for cloud-to-ground lightning. From Cosmic Explosions to Terrestrial Fires?: A Discussion. F. Deschamps and F. Mottez. J. Geology 128, online ahead of print. (2020) From Cosmic Explosions to Terrestrial Fires?: A Reply A.L. Melott and B.C. Thomas. J. Geology 128, online ahead of print. (2020) From cosmic explosions to terrestrial fires? (A.L. Melott and B.C. Thomas) Journal of Geology, 127, 475-481 10.1086/703418 (2019) [arXiv:1903.01501]

astro-ph.EP

From cosmic explosions to terrestrial fires?

Multiple lines of evidence point to one or more moderately nearby supernovae, with the strongest signal ~2.6 Ma. We build on previous work to argue for the likelihood of cosmic ray ionization of the atmosphere and electron cascades leading to more frequent lightning, and therefore an increase in nitrate deposition and in wildfires. The potential exists for a large increase in the pre-human nitrate flux onto the surface, which has previously been argued to lead to CO2 drawdown and cooling of the climate. Evidence for increased wildfires exists in an increase in soot and carbon deposits over the relevant period. The wildfires would have contributed to the transition from forest to savanna in northeast Africa, long argued to have been a factor in the evolution of hominin bipedalism.

astro-ph.EP

Muon Radiation Dose and Marine Megafaunal Extinction at the end-Pliocene Supernova

Considerable data and analysis support the detection of one or more supernovae at a distance of about 50 pc, ~2.6 million years ago. This is possibly related to the extinction event around that time and is a member of a series of explosions which formed the Local Bubble in the interstellar medium. We build on previous work, and propagate the muon flux from supernova-initiated cosmic rays from the surface to the depths of the ocean. We find that the radiation dose from the muons will exceed the total present surface dose from all sources at depths up to a kilometer and will persist for at least the lifetime of marine megafauna. It is reasonable to hypothesize that this increase in radiation load may have contributed to a newly documented marine megafaunal extinction at that time.

astro-ph.EP

Terrestrial effects of moderately nearby supernovae

Recent data indicate one or more moderately nearby supernovae in the early Pleistocene, with additional events likely in the Miocene. This has motivated more detailed computations, using new information about the nature of supernovae and the distances of these events to describe in more detail the sorts of effects that are indicated at the Earth. This short communication/review is designed to describe some of these effects so that they may possibly be related to changes in the biota around these times.

astro-ph.EP

A possible role for stochastic radiation events in the systematic disparity between molecular and fossil dates

Major discrepancies have been noted for some time between fossil ages and molecular divergence dates for a variety of taxa. Recently, systematic trends within avian clades have been uncovered. The trends show that the disparity is much larger for mitochondrial DNA than for nuclear DNA, also that it is larger for crown fossil dates than stem fossil dates. It has been argued that this pattern is largely inconsistent with incompleteness of the fossil record as the principal driver of the disparity. A case is presented that given the expected mutations from a fluctuating background of astrophysical radiation from such sources as supernovae, the rate of molecular clocks is variable and should increase back to a few Ma, before returning to the long-term average rate. This is a possible explanation for the disparity. One test of this hypothesis is to look for an acceleration of molecular clocks 2 to 2.5 Ma due to one or more moderately nearby supernovae known to have happened at that time. Another is to look for reduced disparity in benthic organisms of the deep ocean. In addition, due to the importance of highly penetrating muon irradiation, the disparity should be magnified for megafauna.

q-bio.PE

Does the Planetary Dynamo Go Cycling On? Re-examining the Evidence for Cycles in Magnetic Reversal Rate

The record of reversals of the geomagnetic field has played an integral role in the development of plate tectonic theory. Statistical analyses of the reversal record are aimed at detailing patterns and linking those patterns to core-mantle processes. The geomagnetic polarity timescale is a dynamic record and new paleomagnetic and geochronologic data provide additional detail. In this paper, we examine the periodicity revealed in the reversal record back to 375 million years ago (Ma) using Fourier analysis. Four significant peaks were found in the reversal power spectra within the 16-40-million-year range (Myr). Plotting the function constructed from the sum of the frequencies of the proximal peaks yield a transient 26 Myr periodicity, suggesting chaotic motion with a periodic attractor. The possible 16 Myr periodicity, a previously recognized result, may be correlated with pulsation of mantle plumes and perhaps; more tentatively, with core-mantle dynamics originating near the large low shear velocity layers in the Pacific and Africa. Planetary magnetic fields shield against charged particles which can give rise to radiation at the surface and ionize the atmosphere, which is a loss mechanism particularly relevant to M stars. Understanding the origin and development of planetary magnetic fields can shed light on the habitable zone.

astro-ph.EP

Reply to comment by K.A. Duderstadt et al. on "Atmospheric ionization by high-fluence, hard spectrum solar proton events and their probable appearance in the ice core archive"

Duderstadt et al. [2016b] comment that the Melott et al. [2016] study of nitrate formation by solar proton events (SPEs) and comparison with the ice core archive is "fundamentally flawed," because it does not include pre-existing HNO3 in the stratosphere. We show that they exaggerate both the enhancement predicted by our findings and pre-industrial HNO3 levels in their model, and fail to prove this assertion. Our feasibility study matched expected SPE nitrate production with ground truth measurements. It is not clear that their approach is more realistic and absence of a detailed mechanism does not disprove our results. Models can be no better than the information they are provided and in this case there continue to be significant unknowns and uncertainties, especially in the role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and possible interactions with cosmic rays that constitute lower boundary conditions. Duderstadt et al. [2014; 2016a] used incomplete, poorly-constrained and incorrect initial and boundary conditions, and they continue to advocate on the basis of uncertain results. Meanwhile, Smart et al. [2014] identified a series of ice core nitrate spikes that have since been confirmed in 10Be by McCracken and Beer [2015]. Melott et al. [2016] computationally reproduced the ionization profile of the only major balloon measurements to date. We show that our calculated nitrate enhancement is consistent with measured results, given current levels of uncertainty, and that extreme SPEs can potentially produce occasional nitrate spikes with hundreds of percent increases. Instead of repeating old arguments to dismiss nitrates as proxies of SPEs, it is past time for a dedicated, fine-resolution, multi-parameter, replicate ice core field campaign to resolve this debate.

physics.ao-ph

Atmospheric ionization by high-fluence, hard spectrum solar proton events and their probable appearance in the ice core archive

Solar energetic particles ionize the atmosphere, leading to production of nitrogen oxides. It has been suggested that some such events are visible as layers of nitrate in ice cores, yielding archives of energetic, high fluence solar proton events (SPEs). There has been controversy, due to slowness of transport for these species down from the upper stratosphere; past numerical simulations based on an analytic calculation have shown very little ionization below the mid stratosphere. These simulations suffer from deficiencies: they consider only soft SPEs and narrow energy ranges; spectral fits are poorly chosen; with few exceptions secondary particles in air showers are ignored. Using improved simulations that follow development of the proton-induced air shower, we find consistency with recent experiments showing substantial excess ionization down to 5 km. We compute nitrate available from the 23 February 1956 SPE, which had a high fluence, hard spectrum, and well-resolved associated nitrate peak in a Greenland ice core. For the first time, we find this event can account for ice core data with timely (~ 2 months) transport downward between 46 km and the surface, thus indicating an archive of high fluence, hard spectrum SPE covering the last several millennia. We discuss interpretations of this result, as well as the lack of a clearly-defined nitrate spike associated with the soft-spectrum 3-4 August 1972 SPE. We suggest that hard-spectrum SPEs, especially in the 6 months of polar winter, are detectable in ice cores, and that more work needs to be done to investigate this.

physics.ao-ph

Comment on 'Investigations into the impact of astronomical phenomena on the terrestrial biosphere and climate' (arXiv:1505.07856 [astro-ph.EP]) by Fabo Feng

This work by Feng and papers which published its conclusions do not cite nor do they deal with objections by the author published in 2013-2014. There are many fundamental problems. We will summarize here the principal problems, as published by Melott and Bambach which render irrelevant most of the work presented by Feng.

astro-ph.EP

Cosmic Rays and Terrestrial Life: A Brief Review

"The investigation into the possible effects of cosmic rays on living organisms will also offer great interest." - Victor F. Hess, Nobel Lecture, December 12, 1936 High-energy radiation bursts are commonplace in our Universe. From nearby solar flares to distant gamma ray bursts, a variety of physical processes accelerate charged particles to a wide range of energies, which subsequently reach the Earth. Such particles contribute to a number of physical processes occurring in the Earth system. A large fraction of the energy of charged particles gets deposited in the atmosphere, ionizing the atmosphere, causing changes in its chemistry and affecting the global electric circuit. Remaining secondary particles contribute to the background dose of cosmic rays on the surface and parts of the subsurface region. Life has evolved over the past ~ 3 billion years in presence of this background radiation, which itself has varied considerably during the period. As demonstrated by the Miller-Urey experiment, lightning plays a very important role in the formation of complex organic molecules, which are the building blocks of more complex structures forming life. There is growing evidence of increase in the lightning rate with increasing flux of charged particles. Is there a connection between enhanced rate of cosmic rays and the origin of life? Cosmic ray secondaries are also known to damage DNA and cause mutations, leading to cancer and other diseases. It is now possible to compute radiation doses from secondary particles, in particular muons and neutrons. Have the variations in cosmic ray flux affected the evolution of life on earth? We describe the mechanisms of cosmic rays affecting terrestrial life and review the potential implications of the variation of high-energy astrophysical radiation on the history of life on earth.

astro-ph.HE

Biological radiation dose from secondary particles in a Milky Way gamma ray burst

Gamma ray bursts (GBRs) are a class of highly energetic explosions emitting radiation in a very short timescale of a few seconds and with a very narrow opening angle. Although, all GRBs observed so far are extragalactic in origin, there is a high probability of a GRB of galactic origin beaming towards the Earth in the past ~ 0.5 Gyr. Such an intense burst of gamma rays would ionize the atmosphere and deplete the ozone layer. With depleted ozone, there will be an increased flux of solar UVB on the Earth's surface with harmful biological effects. In addition to the atmospheric damage, secondary particles produced by gamma ray-induced showers will reach the surface. Amongst all secondary particles, muons dominate the ground-level secondary particle flux (99% of the total number of particles) and are potentially of biological significance. Using the Monte Carlo simulation code CORSIKA, we modeled the air showers produced by gamma ray primaries up to 100 GeV. We found that the number of muons produced by hypothetical galactic GRBs significantly increases the total muon flux. However, since the muon production efficiency is extremely low for photon energy below 100 GeV, and because GRBs radiate strongly for only a very short time, we find that the biological radiation dose from secondary muons is negligible. The main mechanism of biological damage from GRBs is through solar UVB irradiation from the loss of ozone in the upper atmosphere.

astro-ph.HE

Declining Volatility, a General Property of Disparate Systems: From Fossils, to Stocks, to the Stars

There may be structural principles pertaining to the general behavior of systems that lead to similarities in a variety of different contexts. Classic examples include the descriptive power of fractals, the importance of surface area to volume constraints, the universality of entropy in systems, and mathematical rules of growth and form. Documenting such overarching principles may represent a rejoinder to the Neodarwinian synthesis that emphasizes adaptation and competition. Instead, these principles could indicate the importance of constraint and structure on form and evolution. Here we document a potential example of a phenomenon suggesting congruent behavior of very different systems. We focus on the notion that universally there has been a tendency for more volatile entities to disappear from systems such that the net volatility in these systems tends to decline. We specifically focus on origination and extinction rates in the marine animal fossil record, the performance of stocks in the stock market, and the characters of stars and stellar systems. We consider the evidence that each is experiencing declining volatility, and also consider the broader significance of this.

astro-ph.EP

Analysis of periodicity of extinction using the 2012 geological time scale

Analysis of two independent data sets with increased taxonomic resolution (genera rather than families) using the revised 2012 time scale reveals that an extinction periodicity first detected by Raup and Sepkoski (1984) for only the post-Paleozoic actually runs through the entire Phanerozoic. Although there is not a local peak of extinction every 27 million years, an excess of the fraction of genus extinction by interval follows a 27 million year timing interval and differs from a random distribution at the p ~ 0.02 level. A 27 million year periodicity in the spectrum of interval lengths no longer appears, removing the question of a possible artifact arising from it. Using a method originally developed in Bambach (2006) we identify 19 intervals of marked extinction intensity, including mass extinctions, spanning the last 470 million years (and with another six present in the Cambrian) and find that 10 of the 19 lie within 3 Myr of the maxima in the spacing of the 27 Myr periodicity, which differs from a random distribution at the p = 0.004 level. These 19 intervals of marked extinction intensity also preferentially occur during decreasing diversity phases of a well-known 62 Myr periodicity in diversity (16 of 19, p = 0.002). Both periodicities appear to enhance the likelihood of increased severity of extinction, but the cause of neither periodicity is known. Variations in the strength of the many suggested causes of extinction coupled to the variation in combined effect of the two different periodicities as they shift in and out of phase is surely one of the reasons that definitive comparative study of the causes of major extinction events is so elusive.

q-bio.PE

Cosmogenic nuclide enhancement via deposition from long-period comets as a test of the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

We explore the idea that detectable excursions in 26Al may arise from direct deposition by any bolide, and excursions in 14C and 10Be abundances in the atmosphere may result from long-period comet impacts. This is very different from the usual processes of production by cosmic rays within Earths atmosphere. Long-period comets experience greatly increased cosmic ray flux beyond the protection of the suns magnetic field. We report the computed amount of 14C, 10Be, and 26Al present on long-period comets as a function of comet mass. We find that the amount of nuclide mass on large long-period comets entering the Earths atmosphere may be sufficient for creating anomalies in the records of 14C and 10Be from past impacts. In particular, the estimated mass of the proposed Younger Dryas comet is consistent with its having deposited sufficient isotopes to account for recorded 14C and 10Be increases at that time. The 26Al/10Be ratio is much larger in extraterrestrial objects than in the atmosphere, and so, we note that measuring this ratio in ice cores is a suitable definitive test for the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis, even if the hypothetical bolide is not a long-period comet and/or did not contribute to the 14C and 10Be increases.

astro-ph.EP