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Adrian L. Melott

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian L. Melott.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2013

Do Periodicities in Extinction -- with Possible Astronomical Connections -- Survive a Revision of the Geological Timescale?

A major revision of the geological timescale was published in 2012. We re-examine our past finding of a 27 Myr periodicity in marine extinction rates by re-assigning dates to the extinction data used previously. We find that the spectral power at this period is somewhat increased, and persists at a narrow bandwidth, which supports our previous contention that the Nemesis hypothesis is untenable as an explanation for the periodicity that was first noted by Raup and Sepkoski in the 1980s. We enumerate a number of problems in a recent study comparing extinction rates with time series models.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2013

Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in 14C production

We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring 14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained by an event with fluence about one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE. Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV. We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts. Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an event may be extreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

astro-ph.SR↗
arXiv2012

Causes of an AD 774-775 14C increase

Atmospheric 14C production is a potential window into the energy of solar proton and other cosmic ray events. It was previously concluded that results from AD 774-775 are orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We find that the coronal mass ejection energy based on 14C production is much smaller than claimed, but still substantially larger than the maximum historical Carrington Event of 1859. Such an event would cause great damage to modern technology, and in view of recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2012

A ~60 Myr periodicity is common to marine-87Sr/86Sr, fossil biodiversity, and large-scale sedimentation: what does the periodicity reflect?

We find that the marine 87Sr/86Sr record shows a significant periodicity of 59.3 \pm 3 Myr. The 87Sr/86Sr record is 171° \pm 12°out of phase with a 62 (\pm 3) Myr periodicity previously reported in the record of marine-animal diversity. These periodicities are close to 58 (\pm 4) Myr cycles found for the number of gap-bounded sedimentary carbonate packages of North America We propose that these periodicities reflect the operation of a periodic "pulse of the Earth" in large-scale, Earth processes. These may be linked to mantle or plate-tectonic events, possibly uplift, which affects Earth's climate and oceans, and so the geochemistry, sedimentation, and biodiversity of the marine realm. Alternately, they may be linked to oscillation of the solar system normal to the plane of the galaxy.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2011

Biological implications of high-energy cosmic ray induced muon flux in the extragalactic shock model

A ~ 62 My periodicity in fossil biodiversity has been observed in independent studies of paleontology databases over ~0.5Gy. The period and phase of this biodiversity cycle coincides with the oscillation of our solar system normal to the galactic disk with an amplitude ~70 parsecs and a period ~64 My. Our Galaxy is falling toward the Virgo cluster, forming a galactic shock at the north end of our galaxy due to this motion, capable of accelerating particles and exposing our galaxy's northern side to a higher flux of cosmic rays. These high-energy particles strike the Earth's atmosphere initiating extensive air showers, ionizing the atmosphere by producing charged secondary particles. Secondary particles such as muons produced as a result of nuclear interactions are able to reach the ground and enhance the biological radiation dose. Using a Monte Carlo simulation package CORSIKA, we compute the biological dose resulting from enhanced muon exposure from cosmic rays and discuss their implications for terrestrial biodiversity variations.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2011

Comment on "N-body simulations of gravitational dynamics" by Dehnen and Read

It is shown that the historical summary of the growth in size of N-body simulations as measured by particle number in this review is missing some key milestones. Size matters, because particle number with appropriate force smoothing is a key method to suppress unwanted discreteness, so that the initial conditions and equations of motion are appropriate to growth by gravitational instability in a Poisson-Vlasov system appropriate to a Universe with dark matter. Published strong constraints on what can be done are not included in the review.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2011

Modeling high-energy cosmic ray induced terrestrial muon flux: A lookup table

On geological timescales, the Earth is likely to be exposed to an increased flux of high energy cosmic rays (HECRs) from astrophysical sources such as nearby supernovae, gamma ray bursts or by galactic shocks. Typical cosmic ray energies may be much higher than the ~ 1 GeV flux which normally dominates. These high-energy particles strike the Earth's atmosphere initiating an extensive air shower. As the air shower propagates deeper, it ionizes the atmosphere by producing charged secondary particles. Secondary particles such as muons and thermal neutrons produced as a result of nuclear interactions are able to reach the ground, enhancing the radiation dose. Muons contribute 85% to the radiation dose from cosmic rays. This enhanced dose could be potentially harmful to the biosphere. This mechanism has been discussed extensively in literature but has never been quantified. Here, we have developed a lookup table that can be used to quantify this effect by modeling terrestrial muon flux from any arbitrary cosmic ray spectra with 10 GeV - 1 PeV primaries. This will enable us to compute the radiation dose on terrestrial planetary surfaces from a number of astrophysical sources.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2011

Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation and the Earth: A Brief Review and Census of Intermittent Intense Sources

Cosmic radiation backgrounds are a constraint on life, and their distribution will affect the Galactic Habitable Zone. Life on Earth has developed in the context of these backgrounds, and characterizing event rates will elaborate the important influences. This in turn can be a base for comparison with other potential life-bearing planets. In this review we estimate the intensities and rates of occurrence of many kinds of strong radiation bursts by astrophysical entities ranging from gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distances to the Sun itself. Many of these present potential hazards to the biosphere: on timescales long compared with human history, the probability of an event intense enough to disrupt life on the land surface or in the oceans becomes large. We enumerate the known sources of radiation and characterize their intensities at the Earth and rates or upper limits on these quantities. When possible, we estimate a "lethal interval", our best estimate of how often a major extinction-level event is probable given the current state of knowledge; we base these estimates on computed or expected depletion of stratospheric ozone. In general, moderate level events are dominated by the Sun, but the far more severe infrequent events are probably dominated by gamma-ray bursts and supernovae. We note for the first time that so-called "short-hard" gamma-ray bursts are a substantial threat, comparable in magnitude to supernovae and greater than that of the higher-luminosity long bursts considered in most past work. Given their precursors, short bursts may come with little or no warning.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2010

A ubiquitous ~62 Myr periodic fluctuation superimposed on general trends in fossil biodiversity: II, Evolutionary dynamics associated with periodic fluctuation in marine diversity

We investigate evolutionary dynamics related to periodicity fossil biodiversity. Coherent periodic fluctuation in origination/extinction of marine genera that survive <45 million years is the source of an observed ~62 million year periodicity analyzed in Paper I. We also show that the evolutionary dynamics of "long-lived" genera (those that survive >45 million years) do not participate in the periodic fluctuation in diversity and differ from those of "short-lived" genera. The difference between the evolutionary dynamics of these 2 genera classes indicates that the periodic pattern is not an artifact of variation in quality of the geologic record. The interplay of these two previously undifferentiated systems, together with the secular increase in abundance of "long-lived" genera, is probably the source of heretofore unexplained differences in evolutionary dynamics between the Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic as reported by others. Testing for cycles similar to the 62 Myr cycle in fossil biodiversity superimposed on the long-term trends of the Phanerozoic as described in Paper I, we find a significant (but weaker) signal in sedimentary rock packages, particularly carbonates, which suggests a connection. The presence of a periodic pattern in evolutionary dynamics of the vulnerable "short-lived" component of marine fauna demonstrates that a long-term periodic fluctuation in environmental conditions capable of affecting evolution in the marine realm characterizes our planet. Coincidence in timing is more consistent with a common cause than sampling bias. A previously identified set of mass extinctions preferentially occur during the declining phase of the 62 Myr periodicity, supporting the idea that the periodicity relates to variation in biotically important stresses. Further work should focus on finding links to physical phenomena that might reveal the causal system or systems.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2010

A ubiquitous ~62-Myr periodic fluctuation superimposed on general trends in fossil biodiversity. I. Documentation

We use Fourier analysis and related techniques to investigate the question of periodicities in fossil biodiversity. These techniques are able to identify cycles superimposed on the long-term trends of the Phanerozoic. We review prior results and analyze data previously reduced and published. Joint time-series analysis of various reductions of the Sepkoski Data, Paleobiology Database, and Fossil Record 2 indicate the same periodicity in biodiversity of marine animals at 62 Myr. We have not found this periodicity in the terrestrial fossil record. We have found that the signal strength decreases with time because of the accumulation of apparently "resistant" long-lived genera. The existence of a 62-Myr periodicity despite very different treatment of systematic error, particularly sampling-strength biases, in all three major databases strongly argues for its reality in the fossil record.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2010

Nemesis Reconsidered

The hypothesis of a companion object (Nemesis) orbiting the Sun was motivated by the claim of a terrestrial extinction periodicity, thought to be mediated by comet showers. The orbit of a distant companion to the Sun is expected to be perturbed by the Galactic tidal field and encounters with passing stars, which will induce variation in the period. We examine the evidence for the previously proposed periodicity, using two modern, greatly improved paleontological datasets of fossil biodiversity. We find that there is a narrow peak at 27 My in the cross-spectrum of extinction intensity time series between these independent datasets. This periodicity extends over a time period nearly twice that for which it was originally noted. An excess of extinction events are associated with this periodicity at 99% confidence. In this sense we confirm the originally noted feature in the time series for extinction. However, we find that it displays extremely regular timing for about 0.5 Gy. The regularity of the timing compared with earlier calculations of orbital perturbation would seem to exclude the Nemesis hypothesis as a causal factor.

astro-ph.SR↗
arXiv2010

Can periodicity in low altitude cloud cover be induced by cosmic ray variability in the extragalactic shock model?

Variation in high energy cosmic rays (HECRs) has been proposed to explain a 62 My periodicity in terrestrial fossil biodiversity. It has been suggested that the infall of our galaxy toward the Virgo cluster could generate an extragalactic shock, accelerating charged particles and exposing the earth to a flux of high energy cosmic rays (HECRs). The oscillation of the Sun perpendicular to the galactic plane could induce 62 My periodicity in the HECR flux on the Earth, with a magnitude much higher than the Galactic cosmic ray change we see in a solar cycle. This mechanism could potentially explain the observed 62 My periodicity in terrestrial biodiversity over the past 500 My. In addition to direct effects on life from secondaries, HECRs induced air showers ionize the atmosphere leading to changes in atmospheric chemistry and microphysical processes that can lead to cloud formation including low altitude cloud cover. An increase in ionization changes the global electric circuit which could enhance the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through microphysical processes such as electroscavenging and ion mediated nucleation, leading to an increase in the cloud cover. This could increase the albedo and reduce the solar flux reaching the ground, reducing the global temperature. Using an existing model, we have calculated the enhancement in atmospheric ionization at low altitudes resulting from exposure to HECRs. We use a conservative model to estimate the change in low altitude cloud cover from this increased ionization.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2010

Cometary airbursts and atmospheric chemistry: Tunguska and a candidate Younger Dryas event

We find agreement between models of atmospheric chemistry changes from ionization for the 1908 Tunguska airburst event and nitrate enhancement in GISP2H and GISP2 ice cores, plus an unexplained ammonium spike. We then consider a candidate cometary impact at the Younger Dryas onset (YD). The large estimated NO_x production and O_3 depletion are beyond accurate extrapolation, but the ice core peak is much lower, possibly because of insufficient sampling resolution. Ammonium and nitrate spikes have been attributed to biomass burning at YD onset in both GRIP and GISP2 ice cores. A similar result is well-resolved in Tunguska ice core data, but that forest fire was far too small to account for this. Direct input of ammonia from a comet into the atmosphere is adequate for YD ice core data, but not Tunguska data. An analog of the Haber process with hydrogen contributed by cometary or surface water, atmospheric nitrogen, high pressures, and possibly catalytic iron from a comet could in principle produce ammonia, accounting for the peaks in both data sets.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2010

Lookup tables to compute high energy cosmic ray induced atmospheric ionization and changes in atmospheric chemistry

A variety of events such as gamma-ray bursts and supernovae may expose the Earth to an increased flux of high-energy cosmic rays, with potentially important effects on the biosphere. Existing atmospheric chemistry software does not have the capability of incorporating the effects of substantial cosmic ray flux above 10 GeV . An atmospheric code, the NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (latitude, altitude) time-dependent atmospheric model (NGSFC), is used to study atmospheric chemistry changes. Using CORSIKA, we have created tables that can be used to compute high energy cosmic ray (10 GeV - 1 PeV) induced atmospheric ionization and also, with the use of the NGSFC code, can be used to simulate the resulting atmospheric chemistry changes. We discuss the tables, their uses, weaknesses, and strengths.

astro-ph↗
arXiv2009

Testing the link between terrestrial climate change and Galactic spiral arm transit

We re-examine past suggestions of a close link between terrestrial climate change and the Sun's transit of spiral arms in its path through the Milky Way galaxy. These links produced concrete fits, deriving the unknown spiral pattern speed from terrestrial climate correlations. We test these fits against new data on spiral structure based on CO data that does not make simplifying assumptions about symmetry and circular rotation. If we compare the times of these transits to changes in the climate of Earth, not only do the claimed correlations disappear, but also we find that they cannot be resurrected for any reasonable pattern speed.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2009

Late Ordovician geographic patterns of extinction compared with simulations of astrophysical ionizing radiation damage

Based on the intensity and rates of various kinds of intense ionizing radiation events such as supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, it is likely that the Earth has been subjected to one or extinction level events during the Phanerozoic. These induce changes in atmospheric chemistry so that the level of Solar ultraviolet-B radiation reaching the surface and near-surface waters may be doubled for up to a decade. This UVB level is known from experiment to be more than enough to kill off many kinds of organisms, particularly phytoplankton. It could easily induce a crash of the photosynthetic-based food chain in the oceans. Regularities in the latitudinal distribution of damage are apparent in simulations of the atmospheric changes. We previously proposed that the late Ordovician extinction is a plausible candidate for a contribution from an ionizing radiation event, based on environmental selectivity in trilobites. To test a null hypothesis based on this proposal, we confront latitudinal differential extinction rates predicted from the simulations with data from a published analysis of latitudinal gradients in the Ordovician extinction. The pattern of UVB damage always shows a strong maximum at some latitude, with substantially lower intensity to the north and south of this maximum. We find that the pattern of damage predicted from our simulations is consistent with the data assuming a burst approximately over the South Pole, and no further north than -75 degrees. We predict that any land mass (such as parts of north China, Laurentia, and New Guinea) which then lay north of the equator should be a refuge from UVB effects, and show a different pattern of extinction in the first strike of the end-Ordovician extinction, if induced by such a radiation event.

astro-ph↗
arXiv2008

Long-term cycles in the history of life: Periodic biodiversity in the Paleobiology Database

Time series analysis of fossil biodiversity of marine invertebrates in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) shows a significant periodicity at approximately 63 My, in agreement with previous analyses based on the Sepkoski database. I discuss how this result did not appear in a previous analysis of the PBDB. The existence of the 63 My periodicity, despite very different treatment of systematic error in both PBDB and Sepkoski databases strongly argues for consideration of its reality in the fossil record. Cross-spectral analysis of the two datasets finds that a 62 My periodicity coincides in phase by 1.6 My, equivalent to better than the errors in either measurement. Consequently, the two data sets not only contain the same strong periodicity, but its peaks and valleys closely correspond in time. Two other spectral peaks appear in the PBDB analysis, but appear to be artifacts associated with detrending and with the increased interval length. Sampling-standardization procedures implemented by the PBDB collaboration suggest that the signal is not an artifact of sampling bias. Further work should focus on finding the cause of the 62 My periodicity.

q-bio.PE↗