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Adrian L. Melott

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian L. Melott.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Superluminous supernovae: No threat from Eta Carinae

Recently Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of ~10^44 Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to eta Carinae, which resides in our own galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. eta Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a Gamma-Ray Burst oriented toward the Earth, eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We find that given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over ~10^4 y, and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae, endocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous" for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, eta Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.

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Comment on 'Discreteness Effects in Simulations of Hot/Warm Dark Matter' by J. Wang & S.D.M. White

Wang and White (2007) have discussed some problems with N-body simulation methods. These problems are a special case of a more general problem which has been largely unacknowledged for approximately 25 years, and affects results of all dark matter simulations on small scales (the definition of 'small' varying with time). Extensive numerical experiments with multiple types of N-body codes have demonstrated that spurious fluctuations due to particle discreteness grow rapidly even in the presence of substantial small-scale power from the intended model spectrum, and modify the results on scales smaller than the mean comoving interparticle separation. This implies that the spatial resolution of such simulations is typically limited not by the force softening length, often referred to as the 'resolution', and not by the particle density in halos. Instead it is approximately N^-1/3, where N is the mean particle density, and of course depends on and improves very slowly with increased number of particles. This calls into question many results on smaller scales over more than two decades.

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Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Reexamining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record

Medvedev and Melott (2007) have suggested that periodicity in fossil biodiversity may be induced by cosmic rays which vary as the Solar System oscillates normal to the galactic disk. We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by Rohde & Mueller (2005), as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by RM may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.

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Do extragalactic cosmic rays induce cycles in fossil diversity?

Recent work has revealed a 62 (+/-) 3-million-year cycle in the fossil diversity in the past 542 My, however no plausible mechanism has been found. We propose that the cycle may be caused by modulation of cosmic ray (CR) flux by the Solar system vertical oscillation (64 My period) in the galaxy, the galactic north-south anisotropy of CR production in the galactic halo/wind/termination shock (due to the galactic motion toward the Virgo cluster), and the shielding by galactic magnetic fields. We revisit the mechanism of CR propagation and show that CR flux can vary by a factor of about 4.6 and reach a maximum at north-most displacement of the Sun. The very high statistical significance of (i) the phase agreement between Solar north-ward excursions and the diversity minima and (ii) the correlation of the magnitude of diversity drops with CR amplitudes through all cycles provide solid support for our model. Various observational predictions which can be used to confirm or falsify our hypothesis are presented.

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Terrestrial Consequences of Spectral and Temporal Variability in Ionizing Photon Events

Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) directed at Earth from within a few kpc may have damaged the biosphere, primarily though changes in atmospheric chemistry which admit greatly increased Solar UV. However, GRBs are highly variable in spectrum and duration. Recent observations indicate that short (~0.1 s) burst GRBs, which have harder spectra, may be sufficiently abundant at low redshift that they may offer an additional significant effect. A much longer timescale is associated with shock breakout luminosity observed in the soft X-ray (~10^3 s) and UV (~10^5 s) emission, and radioactive decay gamma-ray line radiation emitted during the light curve phase of supernovae (~10^7 s). Here we generalize our atmospheric computations to include a broad range of peak photon energies and investigate the effect of burst duration while holding total fluence and other parameters constant. The results can be used to estimate the probable impact of various kinds of ionizing events (such as short GRBs, X-ray flashes, supernovae) upon the terrestrial atmosphere. We find that the ultimate intensity of atmospheric effects varies only slightly with burst duration from 10^-1 s to 10^8 s. Therefore, the effect of many astrophysical events causing atmospheric ionization can be approximated without including time development. Detailed modeling requires specification of the season and latitude of the event. Harder photon spectra produce greater atmospheric effects for spectra with peaks up to about 20 MeV, because of greater penetration into the stratosphere.

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Fossil Biodiversity: Red Noise Plus Signal

We have examined the Fourier power spectrum as well as the Hurst exponent of extinction, origination, and total biodiversity in the marine fossil record, using a recently improved geologic timescale. We find all of them strongly inconsistent with past claims of self-similarity as well as inconsistent with random walk behavior. Instead, they are dominated by low-frequency power, with approximate f^-2 power over one decade in frequency. The spectrum turns over at about 10^8 y, lending plausibility to connections with galactic dynamics. Even in the background of this low-frequency dominance, a previously noted 62 My biodiversity cycle stands out with better than 99% confidence above the noise level, accounting for about 35% of the total variance in the fossil biodiversity record.

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Gamma-ray bursts and terrestrial planetary atmospheres

We describe results of modeling the effects on Earth-like planets of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) within a few kiloparsecs. A primary effect is generation of nitrogen oxide compounds which deplete ozone. Ozone depletion leads to an increase in solar UVB radiation at the surface, enhancing DNA damage, particularly in marine microorganisms such as phytoplankton. In addition, we expect increased atmospheric opacity due to buildup of nitrogen dioxide produced by the burst and enhanced precipitation of nitric acid. We review here previous work on this subject and discuss recent developments, including further discussion of our estimates of the rates of impacting GRBs and the possible role of short-duration bursts.

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Comment on: Protecting Life in the Milky Way: Metals Keep the GRBs Away by Stanek et al

Stanek et al. (astro-ph/0604113) have noted that the four low-redshift long-duration gamma-ray bursts (LSB) observed to date all occurred in faint, metal-poor galaxies. Given this selection, they argue that it is improbable that there has been a substantial population of Milky Way galaxy bursts sufficiently recently to affect life on Earth. This argument ignores the heterogeneity of stellar populations in the Milky Way, with evidence for continuing mergers with low-metallicity dwarf galaxies; observational analysis that points to LSBs being hosted by such galaxies undergoing interaction; and the existence of a likely recent GRB remnant in our galaxy.

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Gamma-Ray Bursts and the Earth: Exploration of Atmospheric, Biological, Climatic and Biogeochemical Effects

Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to $\mathrm{NO_2}$ opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of $\mathrm{HNO_3}$. For the ``typical'' nearest burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 years after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, well above lethal levels for simple life forms such as phytoplankton. The greatest damage occurs at low to mid latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed, lasting several years. We discuss how these results support the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB.

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Climatic and Biogeochemical Effects of a Galactic Gamma-Ray Burst

It is likely that one or more gamma-ray bursts within our galaxy have strongly irradiated the Earth in the last Gy. This produces significant atmospheric ionization and dissociation, resulting in ozone depletion and DNA-damaging ultraviolet solar flux reaching the surface for up to a decade. Here we show the first detailed computation of two other significant effects. Visible opacity of NO2 is sufficient to reduce solar energy at the surface up to a few percent, with the greatest effect at the poles, which may be sufficient to initiate glaciation. Rainout of dilute nitric acid is could have been important for a burst nearer than our conservative nearest burst. These results support the hypothesis that the characteristics of the late Ordovician mass extinction are consistent with GRB initiation.

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Terrestrial Ozone Depletion Due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst

Based on cosmological rates, it is probable that at least once in the last Gy the Earth has been irradiated by a gamma-ray burst in our Galaxy from within 2 kpc. Using a two-dimensional atmospheric model we have performed the first computation of the effects upon the Earth's atmosphere of one such impulsive event. A ten second burst delivering 100 kJ/m^2 to the Earth penetrates to the stratosphere and results in globally averaged ozone depletion of 35%, with depletion reaching 55% at some latitudes. Significant global depletion persists for over 5 years after the burst. This depletion would have dramatic implications for life since a 50% decrease in ozone column density results in approximately three times the normal UVB flux. Widespread extinctions are likely, based on extrapolation from UVB sensitivity of modern organisms. Additional effects include a shot of nitrate fertilizer and NO2 opacity in the visible providing a cooling perturbation to the climate over a similar timescale. These results lend support to the hypothesis that a GRB may have initiated the late Ordovician mass extinction (Melott et al. 2004).

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Morphology and Evolution in Galaxy Clusters I: Simulated Clusters in the Adiabatic limit and with Radiative Cooling

We have studied morphological evolution in clusters simulated in the adiabatic limit and with radiative cooling. Cluster morphology in the redshift range, $0 < z < 0.5$, is quantified by multiplicity and ellipticity. In terms of ellipticity, our result indicates slow evolution in cluster shapes compared to those observed in the X-ray and optical wavelengths. The result is consistent with Floor, Melott & Motl (2003). In terms of multiplicity, however, the result indicate relatively stronger evolution (compared to ellipticity but still weaker than observation) in the structure of simulated clusters suggesting that for comparative studies of simulation and observation, sub-structure measures are more sensitive than the shape measures. We highlight a few possibilities responsible for the discrepancy in the shape evolution of simulated and real clusters.

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Numerical study of the cosmological velocity field as a function of density

We report on a new study of the velocity distribution in N-body simulations. We investigate the center-of-mass and internal kinetic energies of coarsening cells as a function of time, cell size and cell mass. By using self-similar cosmological models, we are able to derive theoretical predictions for comparison and to assess the influence of finite-size and resolution effects. The most interesting result is the discovery of a polytropic-like relationship between the average velocity dispersion (internal kinetic energy) and the mass density in an intermediate range of densities, K ~ rho^{2-eta}. The exponent eta measures the deviations from the virial prediction, eta_virial=0. For self-similar models, eta depends only on the spectral index of the initial power spectrum. We also study CDM models and confirm a previous result that the same polytropic-like dependence exists (astro-ph/0103313), with a time and coarsening length dependent eta. The dependence K(rho) is an important input for a recently proposed theoretical model of cosmological structure formation which improves over the standard dust model (pressureless fluid) by regularizing the density singularities.

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Quantifying the Bull's Eye Effect

We have used N-body simulations to develop two independent methods to quantify redshift distortions known as the Bull's Eye effect (large scale infall plus small scale virial motion). This effect depends upon the mass density, $Ω_0$, so measuring it can in principle give an estimate of this important cosmological parameter. We are able to measure the effect and distinguish between its strength for high and low values of $Ω_0$. Unlike other techniques which utilize redshift distortions, one of our methods is relatively insensitive to bias. In one approach, we use path lengths between contour crossings of the density field. The other is based upon percolation. We have found both methods to be successful in quantifying the effect and distinguishing between values of $Ω_0$. However, only the path lengths method exhibits low sensitivity to bias.

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Optimal Moments for the Analysis of Peculiar Velocity Surveys II: Testing

Analyses of peculiar velocity surveys face several challenges, including low signal--to--noise in individual velocity measurements and the presence of small--scale, nonlinear flows. This is the second in a series of papers in which we describe a new method of overcoming these problems by using data compression as a filter with which to separate large--scale, linear flows from small--scale noise that can bias results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method using realistic catalogs of galaxy velocities drawn from N--body simulations. Our tests show that a likelihood analysis of simulated catalogs that uses all of the information contained in the peculiar velocities results in a bias in the estimation of the power spectrum shape parameter $Γ$ and amplitude $β$, and that our method of analysis effectively removes this bias. We expect that this new method will cause peculiar velocity surveys to re--emerge as a useful tool to determine cosmological parameters.

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Limits on thermal conduction in galaxy clusters

We have calculated lower limits for the global effective thermal conductivity in a sample of 165 Abell clusters. We assumed that cluster X-ray luminosity is compensated by a conductive heat flux which we then compare with an upper limit to the temperature gradient inferred from the cluster temperature and radius. This gives a lower limit to the thermal conductivity and therefore to the relative suppression from the Spitzer conductivity, kappa_{Sp}. Not a single cluster requires super-Spitzer values of thermal conduction to balance the observed X-ray luminosity. The suppression coefficient f=kappa/kappa_{Sp} is clustered in a range 10^{-2} < f < 0.4. A weak dependence of $f$ versus $z$ is observed over $ 0 < z <0.41$. Possible biases and/or selection effects are discussed.

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The Nearest Neighbor Alignment of Cluster X-ray Isophotes

We examine the orientations of rich galaxy cluster X-ray isophotes with respect to their rich nearest neighbors using existing samples of Abell cluster position angles measured from {\it Einstein} and {\it ROSAT} observations. We study a merged subset of these samples using updated and improved positions and redshifts for Abell/ACO clusters. We find high confidence for alignment, which increases as nearest neighbor distance is restricted. We conclude that there is a strong alignment signal in all this data, consistent with gravitational instability acting on Gaussian perturbations.

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Optimal Moments for the Analysis of Peculiar Velocity Surveys

We present a new method for the analysis of peculiar velocity surveys which removes contributions to velocities from small scale, nonlinear velocity modes while retaining information about large scale motions. Our method utilizes Karhunen--Loève methods of data compression to construct a set of moments out of the velocities which are minimally sensitive to small scale power. The set of moments are then used in a likelihood analysis. We develop criteria for the selection of moments, as well as a statistic to quantify the overall sensitivity of a set of moments to small scale power. Although we discuss our method in the context of peculiar velocity surveys, it may also prove useful in other situations where data filtering is required.

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