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Adrien Ehrhardt

Publications and source records attributed to Adrien Ehrhardt.

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Feature quantization for parsimonious and interpretable predictive models

For regulatory and interpretability reasons, logistic regression is still widely used. To improve prediction accuracy and interpretability, a preprocessing step quantizing both continuous and categorical data is usually performed: continuous features are discretized and, if numerous, levels of categorical features are grouped. An even better predictive accuracy can be reached by embedding this quantization estimation step directly into the predictive estimation step itself. But doing so, the predictive loss has to be optimized on a huge set. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce a specific two-step optimization strategy: first, the optimization problem is relaxed by approximating discontinuous quantization functions by smooth functions; second, the resulting relaxed optimization problem is solved via a particular neural network. The good performances of this approach, which we call glmdisc, are illustrated on simulated and real data from the UCI library and Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance (a major European historic player in the consumer credit market).

stat.ME

Réintégration des refusés en Credit Scoring

The granting process of all credit institutions rejects applicants who seem risky regarding the repayment of their debt. A credit score is calculated and associated with a cut-off value beneath which an applicant is rejected. Developing a new score implies having a learning dataset in which the response variable good/bad borrower is known, so that rejects are de facto excluded from the learning process. We first introduce the context and some useful notations. Then we formalize if this particular sampling has consequences on the score's relevance. Finally, we elaborate on methods that use not-financed clients' characteristics and conclude that none of these methods are satisfactory in practice using data from Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance. ----- Un système d'octroi de crédit peut refuser des demandes de prêt jugées trop risquées. Au sein de ce système, le score de crédit fournit une valeur mesurant un risque de défaut, valeur qui est comparée à un seuil d'acceptabilité. Ce score est construit exclusivement sur des données de clients financés, contenant en particulier l'information `bon ou mauvais payeur', alors qu'il est par la suite appliqué à l'ensemble des demandes. Un tel score est-il statistiquement pertinent ? Dans cette note, nous précisons et formalisons cette question et étudions l'effet de l'absence des non-financés sur les scores élaborés. Nous présentons ensuite des méthodes pour réintégrer les non-financés et concluons sur leur inefficacité en pratique, à partir de données issues de Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance.

econ.GN