arXiv subjects

Aldo Glielmo

Publications and source records attributed to Aldo Glielmo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Natural-gas storage modelling by deep reinforcement learning

We introduce GasRL, a simulator that couples a calibrated representation of the natural gas market with a model of storage-operator policies trained with deep reinforcement learning (RL). We use it to analyse how optimal stockpile management affects equilibrium prices and the dynamics of demand and supply. We test various RL algorithms and find that Soft Actor Critic (SAC) exhibits superior performance in the GasRL environment: multiple objectives of storage operators - including profitability, robust market clearing and price stabilisation - are successfully achieved. Moreover, the equilibrium price dynamics induced by SAC-derived optimal policies have characteristics, such as volatility and seasonality, that closely match those of real-world prices. Remarkably, this adherence to the historical distribution of prices is obtained without explicitly calibrating the model to price data. We show how the simulator can be used to assess the effects of EU-mandated minimum storage thresholds. We find that such thresholds have a positive effect on market resilience against unanticipated shifts in the distribution of supply shocks. For example, with unusually large shocks, market disruptions are averted more often if a threshold is in place.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Heterogeneous RBCs via Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Current macroeconomic models with agent heterogeneity can be broadly divided into two main groups. Heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium (GE) models, such as those based on Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) or Krusell-Smith (KS) approaches, rely on GE and 'rational expectations', somewhat unrealistic assumptions that make the models very computationally cumbersome, which in turn limits the amount of heterogeneity that can be modelled. In contrast, agent-based models (ABMs) can flexibly encompass a large number of arbitrarily heterogeneous agents, but typically require the specification of explicit behavioural rules, which can lead to a lengthy trial-and-error model-development process. To address these limitations, we introduce MARL-BC, a framework that integrates deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with real business cycle (RBC) models. We demonstrate that MARL-BC can: (1) recover textbook RBC results when using a single agent; (2) recover the results of the mean-field KS model using a large number of identical agents; and (3) effectively simulate rich heterogeneity among agents, a hard task for traditional GE approaches. Our framework can be thought of as an ABM if used with a variety of heterogeneous interacting agents, and can reproduce GE results in limit cases. As such, it is a step towards a synthesis of these often opposed modelling paradigms.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Non-parametric Causal Discovery for EU Allowances Returns Through the Information Imbalance

We propose to use a recently introduced non-parametric tool named Differentiable Information Imbalance (DII) to identify variables that are causally related -- potentially through non-linear relationships -- to the financial returns of the European Union Allowances (EUAs) within the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). We examine data from January 2013 to April 2024 and compare the DII approach with multivariate Granger causality, a well-known linear approach based on VAR models. We find significant overlap among the causal variables identified by linear and non-linear methods, such as the coal futures prices and the IBEX35 index. We also find important differences between the two causal sets identified. On two synthetic datasets, we show how these differences could originate from limitations of the linear methodology.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Robust Causal Discovery in Real-World Time Series with Power-Laws

Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have been proposed; however, they often exhibit a high sensitivity to noise, resulting in spurious causal inferences in real data. In this paper, we observe that the frequency spectra of many real-world time series follow a power-law distribution, notably due to an inherent self-organizing behavior. Leveraging this insight, we build a robust CD method based on the extraction of power-law spectral features that amplify genuine causal signals. Our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets with known causal structures, demonstrating its robustness and practical relevance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

BeforeIT.jl: High-Performance Agent-Based Macroeconomics Made Easy

BeforeIT is an open-source software for building and simulating state-of-the-art macroeconomic agent-based models (macro ABMs) based on the recently introduced macro ABM developed in [1] and here referred to as the base model. Written in Julia, it combines extraordinary computational efficiency with user-friendliness and extensibility. We present the main structure of the software, demonstrate its ease of use with illustrative examples, and benchmark its performance. Our benchmarks show that the base model built with BeforeIT is orders of magnitude faster than a Matlab version, and significantly faster than Matlab-generated C code. BeforeIT is designed to facilitate reproducibility, extensibility, and experimentation. As the first open-source, industry-grade software to build macro ABMs of the type of the base model, BeforeIT can significantly foster collaboration and innovation in the field of agent-based macroeconomic modelling. The package, along with its documentation, is freely available at https://github.com/bancaditalia/BeforeIT.jl under the AGPL-3.0.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Unveiling the Mechanisms of DAI: A Logic-Based Approach to Stablecoin Analysis

Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to traditional currencies. Despite their growing prominence, many stablecoins have struggled to consistently meet stability expectations, and their underlying mechanisms often remain opaque and challenging to analyze. This paper focuses on the DAI stablecoin, which combines crypto-collateralization and algorithmic mechanisms. We propose a formal logic-based framework for representing the policies and operations of DAI, implemented in Prolog and released as open-source software. Our framework enables detailed analysis and simulation of DAI's stability mechanisms, providing a foundation for understanding its robustness and identifying potential vulnerabilities.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Understanding Variational Autoencoders with Intrinsic Dimension and Information Imbalance

This work presents an analysis of the hidden representations of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) using the Intrinsic Dimension (ID) and the Information Imbalance (II). We show that VAEs undergo a transition in behaviour once the bottleneck size is larger than the ID of the data, manifesting in a double hunchback ID profile and a qualitative shift in information processing as captured by the II. Our results also highlight two distinct training phases for architectures with sufficiently large bottleneck sizes, consisting of a rapid fit and a slower generalisation, as assessed by a differentiated behaviour of ID, II, and KL loss. These insights demonstrate that II and ID could be valuable tools for aiding architecture search, for diagnosing underfitting in VAEs, and, more broadly, they contribute to advancing a unified understanding of deep generative models through geometric analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Chat Bankman-Fried: an Exploration of LLM Alignment in Finance

Advancements in large language models (LLMs) have renewed concerns about AI alignment - the consistency between human and AI goals and values. As various jurisdictions enact legislation on AI safety, the concept of alignment must be defined and measured across different domains. This paper proposes an experimental framework to assess whether LLMs adhere to ethical and legal standards in the relatively unexplored context of finance. We prompt twelve LLMs to impersonate the CEO of a financial institution and test their willingness to misuse customer assets to repay outstanding corporate debt. Beginning with a baseline configuration, we adjust preferences, incentives and constraints, analyzing the impact of each adjustment with logistic regression. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the baseline propensity for unethical behavior of LLMs. Factors such as risk aversion, profit expectations, and regulatory environment consistently influence misalignment in ways predicted by economic theory, although the magnitude of these effects varies across LLMs. This paper highlights both the benefits and limitations of simulation-based, ex post safety testing. While it can inform financial authorities and institutions aiming to ensure LLM safety, there is a clear trade-off between generality and cost.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Density Estimation via Binless Multidimensional Integration

We introduce the Binless Multidimensional Thermodynamic Integration (BMTI) method for nonparametric, robust, and data-efficient density estimation. BMTI estimates the logarithm of the density by initially computing log-density differences between neighbouring data points. Subsequently, such differences are integrated, weighted by their associated uncertainties, using a maximum-likelihood formulation. This procedure can be seen as an extension to a multidimensional setting of the thermodynamic integration, a technique developed in statistical physics. The method leverages the manifold hypothesis, estimating quantities within the intrinsic data manifold without defining an explicit coordinate map. It does not rely on any binning or space partitioning, but rather on the construction of a neighbourhood graph based on an adaptive bandwidth selection procedure. BMTI mitigates the limitations commonly associated with traditional nonparametric density estimators, effectively reconstructing smooth profiles even in high-dimensional embedding spaces. The method is tested on a variety of complex synthetic high-dimensional datasets, where it is shown to outperform traditional estimators, and is benchmarked on realistic datasets from the chemical physics literature.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Investigating the price determinants of the European Emission Trading System: a non-parametric approach

The European carbon market plays a pivotal role in the European Union's ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Understanding the intricacies of factors influencing European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) market prices is paramount for effective policy making and strategy implementation. We propose the use of the Information Imbalance, a recently introduced non-parametric measure quantifying the degree to which a set of variables is informative with respect to another one, to study the relationships among macroeconomic, economic, uncertainty, and energy variables concerning EU ETS prices. Our analysis shows that in Phase 3 commodity related variables such as the ERIX index are the most informative to explain the behaviour of the EU ETS market price. Transitioning to Phase 4, financial fluctuations take centre stage, with the uncertainty in the EUR/CHF exchange rate emerging as a crucial determinant. These results reflect the disruptive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis in reshaping the importance of the different variables. Beyond variable analysis, we also propose to leverage the Information Imbalance to address the problem of mixed-frequency forecasting, and we identify the weekly time scale as the most informative for predicting the EU ETS price. Finally, we show how the Information Imbalance can be effectively combined with Gaussian Process regression for efficient nowcasting and forecasting using very small sets of highly informative predictors.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Scale adaptive and robust intrinsic dimension estimation via optimal neighbourhood identification

The Intrinsic Dimension (ID) is a key concept in unsupervised learning and feature selection, as it is a lower bound to the number of variables which are necessary to describe a system. However, in almost any real-world dataset the ID depends on the scale at which the data are analysed. Quite typically at a small scale, the ID is very large, as the data are affected by measurement errors. At large scale, the ID can also appear erroneously large, due to the curvature and the topology of the manifold containing the data. In this work, we introduce an automatic protocol to select the sweet spot, namely the correct range of scales in which the ID is meaningful and useful. This protocol is based on imposing that for distances smaller than the correct scale the density of the data is constant. In the presented framework, to estimate the density it is necessary to know the ID, therefore, this condition is imposed self-consistently. We illustrate the usefulness and robustness of this procedure to noise by benchmarks on artificial and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Simulating the Economic Impact of Rationality through Reinforcement Learning and Agent-Based Modelling

Agent-based models (ABMs) are simulation models used in economics to overcome some of the limitations of traditional frameworks based on general equilibrium assumptions. However, agents within an ABM follow predetermined 'bounded rational' behavioural rules which can be cumbersome to design and difficult to justify. Here we leverage multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) to expand the capabilities of ABMs with the introduction of 'fully rational' agents that learn their policy by interacting with the environment and maximising a reward function. Specifically, we propose a 'Rational macro ABM' (R-MABM) framework by extending a paradigmatic macro ABM from the economic literature. We show that gradually substituting ABM firms in the model with RL agents, trained to maximise profits, allows for studying the impact of rationality on the economy. We find that RL agents spontaneously learn three distinct strategies for maximising profits, with the optimal strategy depending on the level of market competition and rationality. We also find that RL agents with independent policies, and without the ability to communicate with each other, spontaneously learn to segregate into different strategic groups, thus increasing market power and overall profits. Finally, we find that a higher number of rational (RL) agents in the economy always improves the macroeconomic environment as measured by total output. Depending on the specific rational policy, this can come at the cost of higher instability. Our R-MABM framework allows for stable multi-agent learning, is available in open source, and represents a principled and robust direction to extend economic simulators.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Reinforcement Learning for Combining Search Methods in the Calibration of Economic ABMs

Calibrating agent-based models (ABMs) in economics and finance typically involves a derivative-free search in a very large parameter space. In this work, we benchmark a number of search methods in the calibration of a well-known macroeconomic ABM on real data, and further assess the performance of "mixed strategies" made by combining different methods. We find that methods based on random-forest surrogates are particularly efficient, and that combining search methods generally increases performance since the biases of any single method are mitigated. Moving from these observations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) scheme to automatically select and combine search methods on-the-fly during a calibration run. The RL agent keeps exploiting a specific method only as long as this keeps performing well, but explores new strategies when the specific method reaches a performance plateau. The resulting RL search scheme outperforms any other method or method combination tested, and does not rely on any prior information or trial and error procedure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Reconstruction and segmentation from sparse sequential X-ray measurements of wood logs

In industrial applications, it is common to scan objects on a moving conveyor belt. If slice-wise 2D computed tomography (CT) measurements of the moving object are obtained we call it a sequential scanning geometry. In this case, each slice on its own does not carry sufficient information to reconstruct a useful tomographic image. Thus, here we propose the use of a Dimension reduced Kalman Filter to accumulate information between slices and allow for sufficiently accurate reconstructions for further assessment of the object. Additionally, we propose to use an unsupervised clustering approach known as Density Peak Advanced, to perform a segmentation and spot density anomalies in the internal structure of the reconstructed objects. We evaluate the method in a proof of concept study for the application of wood log scanning for the industrial sawing process, where the goal is to spot anomalies within the wood log to allow for optimal sawing patterns. Reconstruction and segmentation quality are evaluated from experimental measurement data for various scenarios of severely undersampled X-measurements. Results show clearly that an improvement in reconstruction quality can be obtained by employing the Dimension reduced Kalman Filter allowing to robustly obtain the segmented logs.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Redundant representations help generalization in wide neural networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) defy the classical bias-variance trade-off: adding parameters to a DNN that interpolates its training data will typically improve its generalization performance. Explaining the mechanism behind this ``benign overfitting'' in deep networks remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we study the last hidden layer representations of various state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks and find that if the last hidden representation is wide enough, its neurons tend to split into groups that carry identical information, and differ from each other only by statistically independent noise. The number of such groups increases linearly with the width of the layer, but only if the width is above a critical value. We show that redundant neurons appear only when the training process reaches interpolation and the training error is zero.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Intrinsic dimension estimation for discrete metrics

Real world-datasets characterized by discrete features are ubiquitous: from categorical surveys to clinical questionnaires, from unweighted networks to DNA sequences. Nevertheless, the most common unsupervised dimensional reduction methods are designed for continuous spaces, and their use for discrete spaces can lead to errors and biases. In this letter we introduce an algorithm to infer the intrinsic dimension (ID) of datasets embedded in discrete spaces. We demonstrate its accuracy on benchmark datasets, and we apply it to analyze a metagenomic dataset for species fingerprinting, finding a surprisingly small ID, of order 2. This suggests that evolutive pressure acts on a low-dimensional manifold despite the high-dimensionality of sequences' space.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

DADApy: Distance-based Analysis of DAta-manifolds in Python

DADApy is a python software package for analysing and characterising high-dimensional data manifolds. It provides methods for estimating the intrinsic dimension and the probability density, for performing density-based clustering and for comparing different distance metrics. We review the main functionalities of the package and exemplify its usage in toy cases and in a real-world application. DADApy is freely available under the open-source Apache 2.0 license.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Ranking the information content of distance measures

Real-world data typically contain a large number of features that are often heterogeneous in nature, relevance, and also units of measure. When assessing the similarity between data points, one can build various distance measures using subsets of these features. Using the fewest features but still retaining sufficient information about the system is crucial in many statistical learning approaches, particularly when data are sparse. We introduce a statistical test that can assess the relative information retained when using two different distance measures, and determine if they are equivalent, independent, or if one is more informative than the other. This in turn allows finding the most informative distance measure out of a pool of candidates. The approach is applied to find the most relevant policy variables for controlling the Covid-19 epidemic and to find compact yet informative representations of atomic structures, but its potential applications are wide ranging in many branches of science.

stat.ML↗