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Alexander W. Kocurek

Publications and source records attributed to Alexander W. Kocurek.

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Stalnaker's logical problem of conditionals is unsolvable

The logical problem of conditionals, as conceived by Stalnaker, amounts to axiomatizing a particular semantics for conditionals which utilizes selection functions that take propositions (i.e., sets of worlds) as arguments. While the sentential form of this semantics is recursively axiomatizable, we prove that its enrichment with first-order quantifiers is not---that is, we show that Stalnaker's logical problem of conditionals is unsolvable in the language with first-order quantifiers. We demonstrate this by showing how to interpret arithmetic in the logic. In the conclusion, we discuss the implications of this result for the study of conditional logic.

math.LO

Incompleteness in Quantified Conditional Logic

Stalnaker and Thomason famously proved that the conditional logic \textsf{C2} with first-order quantifiers is complete with respect to a selection function semantics. However, the selection functions used in this completeness result take formulas, rather than propositions (i.e., sets of worlds), as arguments. Yet Stalnaker has repeatedly emphasized the philosophical importance of viewing selection functions as functions on propositions, and many of the applications of his theory require this. Can their completeness result be extended to a selection function semantics in which the functions take propositions as arguments? We prove the answer is negative: Their logic is frame incomplete. Moreover, this result is invariant with respect to many choice points regarding the semantics, such as variable vs.~constant domains or whether to include an identity or existence predicate. We conclude by discussing some of the important and difficult questions for the philosophical and logical study of conditionals that our results raise.

math.LO

Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 450 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

cs.CL