arXiv subjects

Ali Mostafavi

Publications and source records attributed to Ali Mostafavi.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Examining Data Imbalance in Crowdsourced Reports for Improving Flash Flood Situational Awareness

The use of crowdsourced data has been finding practical use for enhancing situational awareness during disasters. While recent studies have shown promising results regarding the potential of crowdsourced data for flood mapping, little attention has been paid to data imbalances issues that could introduce biases. We examine biases present in crowdsourced reports to identify data imbalances with a goal of improving disaster situational awareness. Sample bias, spatial bias, and demographic bias are examined as we analyzed reported flooding from 3-1-1, Waze reports, and FEMA damage data collected in the aftermaths of Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019 and Hurricane Ida in 2021. Integrating other flooding related topics from 3-1-1 reports into the Global Moran's I and Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) test revealed more communities that were impacted by floods. To examine spatial bias, we perform the LISA and BI-LISA tests on the three datasets at the census tract and census block group level. By looking at two geographical aggregations, we found that the larger spatial aggregations, census tracts, show less data imbalance in the results. Finally, one-way analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test performed on the clusters generated from the BI-LISA shows that data imbalance exists in areas where minority populations reside. Through a regression analysis, we found that 3-1-1 and Waze reports have data imbalance limitations in areas where minority populations reside. The findings of this study advance understanding of data imbalances and biases in crowdsourced datasets that are growingly used for disaster situational awareness.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Lifestyle Pattern Analysis Unveils Recovery Trajectories of Communities Impacted by Disasters

The return of normalcy to the population's lifestyle is a critical recovery milestone in the aftermath of disasters, and delayed lifestyle recovery could lead to significant well-being impacts. Lifestyle recovery captures the collective effects of population activities and the restoration of infrastructure and business services. This study uses a novel approach to leverage privacy-enhanced location intelligence data to characterize distinctive lifestyle patterns and to unveil recovery trajectories after a disaster in the context of 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The analysis integrates multiple data sources to record the number of visits from home census block groups (CBGs) to different points of interest during the baseline period and disruptive period. First, primary clustering using k-means characterized four distinct essential and non-essential lifestyle patterns. Then, secondary clustering characterized the impact of the hurricane into three recovery trajectories based on the severity of maximum disruption and duration of recovery. The results reveal multiple recovery trajectories and durations within each lifestyle cluster, which imply differential recovery rates among similar lifestyle and demographic groups. The findings offer a twofold theoretical significance: (1) lifestyle recovery is a critical milestone that needs to be examined, quantified, and monitored in the aftermath of disasters; (2) the spatial structures of cities formed by human mobility and distribution of facilities and extends the spatial reach of flood impacts on population lifestyles. The analysis and findings also provide novel data-driven insights for public official and emergency managers to examine, measure, and monitor a critical milestone in community recovery trajectory based on the return of lifestyles to normalcy.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Human Mobility Disproportionately Extends PM2.5 Emission Exposure for Low Income Populations

Ambient exposure to fine particulate matters of diameters smaller than 2.5μm (PM2.5) has been identified as one critical cause for respiratory disease. Disparities in exposure to PM2.5 among income groups at individual residences are known to exist and are easy to calculate. Existing approaches for exposure assessment, however, do not capture the exposure implied by the dynamic mobility of city dwellers that accounts for a large proportion of the exposure outside homes. To overcome the challenge of gauging the exposure to PM2.5 for city dwellers, we analyzed billions of anonymized and privacy-enhanced location-based data generated by mobile phone users in Harris County, Texas, to characterize the mobility patterns of the populations and associated exposure. We introduce the metric for exposure extent based on the time people spent at places with the air pollutant and examine the disparities in mobility-based exposure across income groups. Our results show that PM2.5 emissions disproportionately expose low-income populations due to their mobility activities. People with higher-than-average income are exposed to lower levels of PM2.5 emissions. These disparities in mobility-based exposure are the result of frequent visits of low-income people to the industrial sectors of urban areas with high PM2.5 emissions, and the larger mobility scale of these people for life needs. The results inform about environmental justice and public health strategies, not only to reduce the overall PM2.5 exposure but also to mitigate the disproportional impacts on low-income populations. The findings also suggest that an integration of extensive fine-scale population mobility and pollution emissions data can unveil new insights into inequality in air pollution exposures at the urban scale.

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arXiv2022

Quantitative Measures for Integrating Resilience into Transportation Planning Practice: Study in Texas

The objective of this study is to propose a system-level framework with quantitative measures to assess the resilience of road networks. The framework proposed in this paper can help transportation agencies incorporate resilience considerations into project development proactively and to understand the resilience performance of current road networks effectively. This study identified and implemented four quantitative metrics to classify the criticality of road segments based on critical dimensions of road network resilience, and two integrated metrics were proposed to combine all metrics to show the overall resilience performance of road segments. A case study was conducted on the Texas road networks to demonstrate the effectiveness of implementing this framework in a practical scenario. Since the data used in this study is available to other states and countries, the framework presented in this study can be adopted by other transportation agencies across the globe for regional transportation resilience assessments.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Do Human Mobility Network Analyses Produced from Different Location-based Data Sources Yield Similar Results across Scales?

The burgeoning availability of sensing technology and location-based data is driving the expansion of analysis of human mobility networks in science and engineering research, as well as in epidemic forecasting and mitigation, urban planning, traffic engineering, emergency response, and business development. However, studies employ datasets provided by different location-based data providers, and the extent to which the human mobility measures and results obtained from different datasets are comparable is not known. To address this gap, in this study, we examined three prominent location-based data sources: Spectus, X-Mode, and Veraset to analyze human mobility networks across metropolitan areas at different scales: global, sub-structure, and microscopic. Dissimilar results were obtained from the three datasets, suggesting the sensitivity of network models and measures to datasets. This finding has important implications for building generalized theories of human mobility and urban dynamics based on different datasets. The findings also highlighted the need for ground-truthed human movement datasets to serve as the benchmark for testing the representativeness of human mobility datasets. Researchers and decision-makers across different fields of science and technology should recognize the sensitivity of human mobility results to dataset choice and develop procedures for ground-truthing the selected datasets in terms of representativeness of data points and transferability of results.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Characterizing Urban Lifestyle Signatures Using Motif Properties in Network of Places

The lifestyles of urban dwellers could reveal important insights regarding the dynamics and complexity of cities. Despite growing research on analysis of lifestyle patterns in cities, little is known about the characteristics of people's lifestyles patterns at urban scale. This limitation is primarily due to challenges in characterizing lifestyle patterns when human movement data is aggregated to protect the privacy of users. In this study, we model cities based on aggregated human visitation data to construct a network of places. We then examine the subgraph signatures in the networks of places to map and characterize lifestyle patterns at city scale. Location-based data from Harris County, Dallas County, New York County, and Broward County in the United States were examined to reveal lifestyle signatures in cities. For the motif analysis, two-node, three-node, and four-node motifs without location attributes were extracted from human visitation networks. Second, homogenized nodes in motifs were encoded with location categories from NAICS codes. Multiple statistical measures, including network metrics and motif properties, were quantified to characterize lifestyle signatures. The results show that: people's lifestyles in urban environments can be well depicted and quantified based on distribution and attributes of motifs in networks of places; motifs in networks of places show stability in quantity and distance as well as periodicity on weekends and weekdays indicating the stability of lifestyle patterns in cities; human visitation networks and lifestyle patterns show similarities across different metropolitan areas implying the universality of lifestyle signatures across cities. The findings provide deeper insights into urban lifestyles signatures in urban studies and provide important insights for data-informed urban planning and management.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Latent Sub-structural Resilience Mechanisms in Temporal Human Mobility Networks during Urban Flooding

In studying resilience in temporal human networks, relying solely on global network measures would be inadequate; latent sub-structural network mechanisms need to be examined to determine the extent of impact and recovery of these networks during perturbations, such as urban flooding. In this study, we utilized high-resolution aggregated location-based disaster related data to construct temporal human mobility networks. Using the constructed temporal network models, we examined characteristics such as motif distribution, motif persistence and temporal stability, and motif attributes to reveal latent sub-structural mechanisms related to the resilience of human mobility networks during disaster-induced perturbations. The results show that urban flood impacts persists in human mobility networks at the sub-structure level for several weeks. The impact extent and recovery duration is heterogeneous across different network types. Also, perturbation impacts persist at the sub-structure level while global topological network properties might indicate the network has recovered. The findings highlight the importance of examining the microstructures and their dynamic processes and attributes in understanding the resilience of temporal human mobility networks (and other temporal networks), it is essential to examine the microstructures and their perturbation impacts and recovery. The findings can also provide disaster managers, public officials, and transportation planners with insights to better evaluate impacts and to monitor recovery in affected communities based on the patterns of impact and recovery in human mobility networks at both sub-structure and global-network levels.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Location Intelligence Reveals the Extent, Timing, and Spatial Variation of Hurricane Preparedness

Improving hurricane preparedness is essential to reduce hurricane impacts. Inherent in traditional methods for quantifying and monitoring hurricane preparedness are significant lags. This study establishes a methodological framework to quantify the extent, timing, and spatial variation of hurricane preparedness at the CBG level using high-resolution location intelligence data. Anonymized cell phone data on visits to POIs for each CBG before 2017 Hurricane Harvey were used to examine hurricane preparedness. Four categories of POI, grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies and home improvement stores, were identified as having close relationship with hurricane preparedness, and the daily number of visits from each CBG to these four categories of POIs were calculated during preparation period. Two metrics, extent of preparedness and proactivity, were calculated based on the daily visit percentage change compared to the baseline period. The results show that peak visits to pharmacies often occurred in the early stage, whereas the peak of visits to gas stations happened closer to landfall. The spatial and temporal patterns of visits to grocery stores and home improvement stores were quite similar. However, correlation analysis demonstrates that extent of preparedness and proactivity are independent of each other. Combined with synchronous evacuation data, CBGs were divided into four clusters in terms of extent of preparedness and evacuation rate. The clusters with low preparedness and low evacuation rate were identified as hotspots of vulnerability for shelter-in-place households that would need urgent attention during response. The study advances data-driven understanding of human protective actions and provide emergency response managers with novel insights to proactively monitor disaster preparedness, facilitating identifying under-prepared areas and better allocating resources timely.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

FMP: Toward Fair Graph Message Passing against Topology Bias

Despite recent advances in achieving fair representations and predictions through regularization, adversarial debiasing, and contrastive learning in graph neural networks (GNNs), the working mechanism (i.e., message passing) behind GNNs inducing unfairness issue remains unknown. In this work, we theoretically and experimentally demonstrate that representative aggregation in message-passing schemes accumulates bias in node representation due to topology bias induced by graph topology. Thus, a \textsf{F}air \textsf{M}essage \textsf{P}assing (FMP) scheme is proposed to aggregate useful information from neighbors but minimize the effect of topology bias in a unified framework considering graph smoothness and fairness objectives. The proposed FMP is effective, transparent, and compatible with back-propagation training. An acceleration approach on gradient calculation is also adopted to improve algorithm efficiency. Experiments on node classification tasks demonstrate that the proposed FMP outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in effectively and efficiently mitigating bias on three real-world datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Specifying Evacuation Return and Home-switch Stability During Short-term Disaster Recovery Using Location-based Data

The objectives of this study are: (1) to specify evacuation return and home-switch stability as two critical milestones of short-term recovery during and in the aftermath of disasters; and (2) to understand the disparities among subpopulations in the duration of these critical recovery milestones. Using privacy-preserving fine-resolution location-based data, we examine evacuation return and home move-out rates in Harris County, Texas in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. For each of the two critical recovery milestones, the results reveal the areas with short- and long-return durations and enable evaluating disparities in evacuation return and home-switch stability patterns. In fact, a shorter duration of critical recovery milestone indicators in flooded areas is not necessarily a positive indication. Shorter evacuation return could be due to barriers to evacuation and shorter home move-out rate return for lower-income residents is associated with living in rental homes. In addition, skewed and non-uniform recovery patterns for both the evacuation return and home-switch stability were observed in all subpopulation groups. All return patterns show a two-phase return progress pattern. The findings could inform disaster managers and public officials to perform recovery monitoring and resource allocation in a more proactive, data-driven, and equitable manner.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Smart Flood Resilience: Harnessing Community-Scale Big Data for Predictive Flood Risk Monitoring, Rapid Impact Assessment, and Situational Awareness

Smart resilience is the beneficial result of the collision course of the fields of data science and urban resilience to flooding. The objective of this study is to propose and demonstrate a smart flood resilience framework that leverages heterogeneous community-scale big data and infrastructure sensor data to enhance predictive risk monitoring and situational awareness. The smart flood resilience framework focuses on four core capabilities that could be augmented by the use of heterogeneous community-scale big data and analytics techniques: (1) predictive flood risk mapping; (2) automated rapid impact assessment; (3) predictive infrastructure failure prediction and monitoring; and (4) smart situational awareness capabilities. We demonstrate the components of these core capabilities of the smart flood resilience framework in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. First, we demonstrate the use of flood sensors for the prediction of floodwater overflow in channel networks and inundation of co-located road networks. Second, we discuss the use of social media and machine learning techniques for assessing the impacts of floods on communities and sensing emotion signals to examine societal impacts. Third, we illustrate the use of high-resolution traffic data in network-theoretic models for nowcasting of flood propagation on road networks and the disrupted access to critical facilities, such as hospitals. Fourth, we leverage location-based and credit card transaction data in spatial analyses to proactively evaluate the recovery of communities and the impacts of floods on businesses. These analyses show that the significance of core capabilities of the smart flood resilience framework in helping emergency managers, city planners, public officials, responders, and volunteers to better cope with the impacts of catastrophic flooding events.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Spatial-temporal Graph Deep Learning Model for Urban Flood Nowcasting Leveraging Heterogeneous Community Features

The objective of this study is to develop and test a novel structured deep-learning modeling framework for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial-temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold; first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features such as rainfall intensity and water elevation, and human-sensed data such as flood reports and fluctuations of human activity. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus on the most influential features that vary dynamically. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the case study and Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Results indicate that the model provides superior performance for the nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census tract level, with a precision of 0.808 and a recall of 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with some other novel models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting,

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Revealing the Global Linguistic and Geographical Disparities of Public Awareness to Covid-19 Outbreak through Social Media

The Covid-19 has presented an unprecedented challenge to public health worldwide. However, residents in different countries showed diverse levels of Covid-19 awareness during the outbreak and suffered from uneven health impacts. This study analyzed the global Twitter data from January 1st to June 30th, 2020, seeking to answer two research questions. What are the linguistic and geographical disparities of public awareness in the Covid-19 outbreak period reflected on social media? Can the changing pandemic awareness predict the Covid-19 outbreak? We established a Twitter data mining framework calculating the Ratio index to quantify and track the awareness. The lag correlations between awareness and health impacts were examined at global and country levels. Results show that users presenting the highest Covid-19 awareness were mainly those tweeting in the official languages of India and Bangladesh. Asian countries showed more significant disparities in awareness than European countries, and awareness in the eastern part of Europe was higher than in central Europe. Finally, the Ratio index could accurately predict global mortality rate, global case fatality ratio, and country-level mortality rate, with 21-30, 35-42, and 17 leading days, respectively. This study yields timely insights into social media use in understanding human behaviors for public health research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Neural Embeddings of Urban Big Data Reveal Emergent Structures in Cities

In this study, we propose using a neural embedding model-graph neural network (GNN)- that leverages the heterogeneous features of urban areas and their interactions captured by human mobility network to obtain vector representations of these areas. Using large-scale high-resolution mobility data sets from millions of aggregated and anonymized mobile phone users in 16 metropolitan counties in the United States, we demonstrate that our embeddings encode complex relationships among features related to urban components (such as distribution of facilities) and population attributes and activities. The spatial gradient in each direction from city center to suburbs is measured using clustered representations and the shared characteristics among urban areas in the same cluster. Furthermore, we show that embeddings generated by a model trained on a different county can capture 50% to 60% of the emergent spatial structure in another county, allowing us to make cross-county comparisons in a quantitative way. Our GNN-based framework overcomes the limitations of previous methods used for examining spatial structures and is highly scalable. The findings reveal non-linear relationships among urban components and anisotropic spatial gradients in cities. Since the identified spatial structures and gradients capture the combined effects of various mechanisms, such as segregation, disparate facility distribution, and human mobility, the findings could help identify the limitations of the current city structure to inform planning decisions and policies. Also, the model and findings set the stage for a variety of research in urban planning, engineering and social science through integrated understanding of how the complex interactions between urban components and population activities and attributes shape the spatial structures in cities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Tracing app technology: An ethical review in the COVID-19 era and directions for post-COVID-19

We conducted a systematic literature review on the ethical considerations of the use of contact tracing app technology, which was extensively implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid and extensive use of this technology during the COVID-19 pandemic, while benefiting the public well-being by providing information about people's mobility and movements to control the spread of the virus, raised several ethical concerns for the post-COVID-19 era. To investigate these concerns for the post-pandemic situation and provide direction for future events, we analyzed the current ethical frameworks, research, and case studies about the ethical usage of tracing app technology. The results suggest there are seven essential ethical considerations, namely privacy, security, acceptability, government surveillance, transparency, justice, and voluntariness in the ethical use of contact tracing technology. In this paper, we explain and discuss these considerations and how they are needed for the ethical usage of this technology. The findings also highlight the importance of developing integrated guidelines and frameworks for implementation of such technology in the post-COVID-19 world.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Predicting Road Flooding Risk with Machine Learning Approaches Using Crowdsourced Reports and Fine-grained Traffic Data

The objective of this study is to predict road flooding risks based on topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features using machine learning models. Predictive flood monitoring of road network flooding status plays an essential role in community hazard mitigation, preparedness, and response activities. Existing studies related to the estimation of road inundations either lack observed road inundation data for model validations or focus mainly on road inundation exposure assessment based on flood maps. This study addresses this limitation by using crowdsourced and fine-grained traffic data as an indicator of road inundation, and topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features as predictor variables. Two tree-based machine learning models (random forest and AdaBoost) were then tested and trained for predicting road inundations in the contexts of 2017 Hurricane Harvey and 2019 Tropical Storm Imelda in Harris County, Texas. The findings from Hurricane Harvey indicate that precipitation is the most important feature for predicting road inundation susceptibility, and that topographic features are more essential than hydrologic features for predicting road inundations in both storm cases. The random forest and AdaBoost models had relatively high AUC scores (0.860 and 0.810 for Harvey respectively and 0.790 and 0.720 for Imelda respectively) with the random forest model performing better in both cases. The random forest model showed stable performance for Harvey, while varying significantly for Imelda. This study advances the emerging field of smart flood resilience in terms of predictive flood risk mapping at the road level. For example, such models could help impacted communities and emergency management agencies develop better preparedness and response strategies with improved situational awareness of road inundation likelihood as an extreme weather event unfolds.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Limitations of gravity models in predicting fine-scale spatial-temporal urban mobility networks

This study identifies the limitations and underlying characteristics of urban mobility networks that influence the performance of the gravity model. The gravity model is a widely-used approach for estimating and predicting population flows in urban mobility networks, assuming the scale-free property. Prior studies have reported good performance results for the gravity model at certain levels of aggregation. However, the characteristics of urban mobility networks might vary depending on the spatial and temporal resolutions of data. Hence, the sensitivity of gravity model performance to variation in the level of aggregation of data and the temporal and spatial scale of urban mobility networks needs to be examined. The basic gravity model is tested on urban mobility networks on an hourly and daily scale using fine-grained location-based human mobility data for multiple US metropolitan counties to address this gap. The findings suggest that: (1) finer-scale urban mobility networks do not demonstrate a scale-free property; (2) the performance of the basic gravity model decays for predicting population flow in the finer-scale urban mobility networks; (3) the variations in population density distribution and mobility network structure and properties across counties do not significantly influence the performance of gravity models. Hence, gravity models may not be suitable for modeling urban mobility networks with daily or hourly aggregation of census tract to census tract movements. The findings highlight the need for new urban mobility network models or machine learning approaches to predict fine-scale and high temporal-resolution urban mobility networks better.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Community-scale Big Data Reveals Disparate Impacts of the Texas Winter Storm of 2021 and its Managed Power Outage

Aggregated community-scale data could be harnessed to allow insights into the disparate impacts of managed power outages, burst pipes, and food inaccessibility during extreme weather events. During Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, Texas power-generating plant operators resorted to rolling blackouts to prevent wider collapse of the whole power grid when power demand overwhelmed supply. In this study, we collected community-scale big data (e.g., digital trace and crowdsourced data) in the context of the winter storm, which brought historically low temperatures, snow, and ice to the entire state of Texas. By analyzing this data, we can infer the extent of disparities in storm-related impacts on vulnerable populations. In addition to assessing disparate impacts of the managed power outage, this study also examined the extent of burst pipes and disrupted access to food. Using statistical and trend classification analyses, the results highlight the spatial and temporal patterns of impacts for subpopulations in Harris County, Texas, within which the city of Houston is located. In particular, findings show significant disparity in the extent and duration of power outages experienced by low-income and minority groups. This finding suggests that the existence of inequality in the management and implementation of the power outage. Also, the extent of burst pipes and disrupted food access were more severe for low-income and minority groups. These findings suggest implications for understanding the disparate impacts of extreme weather events on vulnerable populations; in particular, the findings could provide insights allowing infrastructure operators to enhance social equality considerations during managed service disruptions in such events. The results and findings demonstrate the value of community-scale big data sources for rapid impact assessment in the aftermath of extreme weather events.

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