arXiv subjects

Alkis Kalavasis

Publications and source records attributed to Alkis Kalavasis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Learning Curves of Revenue Maximization

Learning curves are a fundamental primitive in supervised learning, describing how an algorithm's performance improves with more data and providing a quantitative measure of its generalization ability. Formally, a learning curve plots the decay of an algorithm's error for a fixed underlying distribution as a function of the number of training samples. Prior work on revenue-maximizing learning algorithms, starting with the seminal work of Cole and Roughgarden [STOC, 2014], adopts a distribution-free perspective, which parallels the PAC learning framework in learning theory. This approach evaluates performance against the hardest possible sequence of valuation distributions, one for each sample size, effectively defining the upper envelope of learning curves over all possible distributions, thus leading to error bounds that do not capture the shape of the learning curves. In this work we initiate the study of learning curves for revenue maximization and provide a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay in the basic setting of a single item and a single buyer. In the absence of any restriction on the valuation distribution, we show that there exists a Bayes-consistent algorithm, meaning that its learning curve converges to zero for any arbitrary valuation distribution as the number of samples $n \to \infty$. However, this convergence must be arbitrarily slow, even if the optimal revenue is finite. In contrast, if the optimal revenue is achieved by a finite price, then the optimal rate of decay is roughly $1/\sqrt{n}$. Finally, for distributions supported on discrete sets of values, we show that learning curves decay almost exponentially fast, a rate unattainable under the PAC framework.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Mean Estimation from Coarse Data: Characterizations and Efficient Algorithms

Coarse data arise when learners observe only partial information about samples; namely, a set containing the sample rather than its exact value. This occurs naturally through measurement rounding, sensor limitations, and lag in economic systems. We study Gaussian mean estimation from coarse data, where each true sample $x$ is drawn from a $d$-dimensional Gaussian distribution with identity covariance, but is revealed only through the set of a partition containing $x$. When the coarse samples, roughly speaking, have ``low'' information, the mean cannot be uniquely recovered from observed samples (i.e., the problem is not identifiable). Recent work by Fotakis, Kalavasis, Kontonis, and Tzamos [FKKT21] established that sample-efficient mean estimation is possible when the unknown mean is identifiable and the partition consists of only convex sets. Moreover, they showed that without convexity, mean estimation becomes NP-hard. However, two fundamental questions remained open: (1) When is the mean identifiable under convex partitions? (2) Is computationally efficient estimation possible under identifiability and convex partitions? This work resolves both questions. [...]

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Linear Regression with Unknown Truncation Beyond Gaussian Features

In truncated linear regression, samples $(x,y)$ are shown only when the outcome $y$ falls inside a certain survival set $S^\star$ and the goal is to estimate the unknown $d$-dimensional regressor $w^\star$. This problem has a long history of study in Statistics and Machine Learning going back to the works of (Galton, 1897; Tobin, 1958) and more recently in, e.g., (Daskalakis et al., 2019; 2021; Lee et al., 2023; 2024). Despite this long history, however, most prior works are limited to the special case where $S^\star$ is precisely known. The more practically relevant case, where $S^\star$ is unknown and must be learned from data, remains open: indeed, here the only available algorithms require strong assumptions on the distribution of the feature vectors (e.g., Gaussianity) and, even then, have a $d^{\mathrm{poly} (1/\varepsilon)}$ run time for achieving $\varepsilon$ accuracy. In this work, we give the first algorithm for truncated linear regression with unknown survival set that runs in $\mathrm{poly} (d/\varepsilon)$ time, by only requiring that the feature vectors are sub-Gaussian. Our algorithm relies on a novel subroutine for efficiently learning unions of a bounded number of intervals using access to positive examples (without any negative examples) under a certain smoothness condition. This learning guarantee adds to the line of works on positive-only PAC learning and may be of independent interest.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Learning Mixture Models via Efficient High-dimensional Sparse Fourier Transforms

In this work, we give a ${\rm poly}(d,k)$ time and sample algorithm for efficiently learning the parameters of a mixture of $k$ spherical distributions in $d$ dimensions. Unlike all previous methods, our techniques apply to heavy-tailed distributions and include examples that do not even have finite covariances. Our method succeeds whenever the cluster distributions have a characteristic function with sufficiently heavy tails. Such distributions include the Laplace distribution but crucially exclude Gaussians. All previous methods for learning mixture models relied implicitly or explicitly on the low-degree moments. Even for the case of Laplace distributions, we prove that any such algorithm must use super-polynomially many samples. Our method thus adds to the short list of techniques that bypass the limitations of the method of moments. Somewhat surprisingly, our algorithm does not require any minimum separation between the cluster means. This is in stark contrast to spherical Gaussian mixtures where a minimum $\ell_2$-separation is provably necessary even information-theoretically [Regev and Vijayaraghavan '17]. Our methods compose well with existing techniques and allow obtaining ''best of both worlds" guarantees for mixtures where every component either has a heavy-tailed characteristic function or has a sub-Gaussian tail with a light-tailed characteristic function. Our algorithm is based on a new approach to learning mixture models via efficient high-dimensional sparse Fourier transforms. We believe that this method will find more applications to statistical estimation. As an example, we give an algorithm for consistent robust mean estimation against noise-oblivious adversaries, a model practically motivated by the literature on multiple hypothesis testing. It was formally proposed in a recent Master's thesis by one of the authors, and has already inspired follow-up works.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2025

What Makes Treatment Effects Identifiable? Characterizations and Estimators Beyond Unconfoundedness

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations between the outcome and treatment. Overlap requires the existence of randomness in treatment decisions for all individuals. Nevertheless, many types of studies frequently violate unconfoundedness or overlap, for instance, observational studies with deterministic treatment decisions - popularly known as Regression Discontinuity designs - violate overlap. In this paper, we initiate the study of general conditions that enable the identification of the average treatment effect, extending beyond unconfoundedness and overlap. In particular, following the paradigm of statistical learning theory, we provide an interpretable condition that is sufficient and necessary for the identification of ATE. Moreover, this condition also characterizes the identification of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and can be used to characterize other treatment effects as well. To illustrate the utility of our condition, we present several well-studied scenarios where our condition is satisfied and, hence, we prove that ATE can be identified in regimes that prior works could not capture. For example, under mild assumptions on the data distributions, this holds for the models proposed by Tan (2006) and Rosenbaum (2002), and the Regression Discontinuity design model introduced by Thistlethwaite and Campbell (1960). For each of these scenarios, we also show that, under natural additional assumptions, ATE can be estimated from finite samples. We believe these findings open new avenues for bridging learning-theoretic insights and causal inference methodologies, particularly in observational studies with complex treatment mechanisms.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

DDPM Score Matching and Distribution Learning

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples from any realistic data distribution (Chen et al., ICLR'23; Lee et al., ALT'23). This distribution learning result, where the learned distribution is implicitly that of the sampler's output, does not explain how score estimation relates to classical tasks of parameter and density estimation. This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to these two tasks, with various implications for statistical and computational learning theory: Parameter Estimation: Koehler et al. (ICLR'23) demonstrate that a score-matching variant is statistically inefficient for the parametric estimation of multimodal densities common in practice. In contrast, we show that under mild conditions, denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient. Density Estimation: By linking generation to score estimation, we lift existing score estimation guarantees to $(\epsilon,\delta)$-PAC density estimation, i.e., a function approximating the target log-density within $\epsilon$ on all but a $\delta$-fraction of the space. We provide (i) minimax rates for density estimation over H\"older classes and (ii) a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm for the classical Gaussian location mixture model, building on and addressing an open problem from Gatmiry et al. (COLT'26). Lower Bounds for Score Estimation: Our framework offers the first principled method to prove computational lower bounds for score estimation across general distributions. As an application, we establish cryptographic lower bounds for score estimation in general Gaussian mixture models, conceptually recovering Song's (NeurIPS'24) result and advancing his key open problem.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Can SGD Select Good Fishermen? Local Convergence under Self-Selection Biases and Beyond

We revisit the problem of estimating $k$ linear regressors with self-selection bias in $d$ dimensions with the maximum selection criterion, as introduced by Cherapanamjeri, Daskalakis, Ilyas, and Zampetakis [CDIZ23, STOC'23]. Our main result is a $\operatorname{poly}(d,k,1/\varepsilon) + {k}^{O(k)}$ time algorithm for this problem, which yields an improvement in the running time of the algorithms of [CDIZ23] and [GM24, arXiv]. We achieve this by providing the first local convergence algorithm for self-selection, thus resolving the main open question of [CDIZ23]. To obtain this algorithm, we reduce self-selection to a seemingly unrelated statistical problem called coarsening. Coarsening occurs when one does not observe the exact value of the sample but only some set (a subset of the sample space) that contains the exact value. Inference from coarse samples arises in various real-world applications due to rounding by humans and algorithms, limited precision of instruments, and lag in multi-agent systems. Our reduction to coarsening is intuitive and relies on the geometry of the self-selection problem, which enables us to bypass the limitations of previous analytic approaches. To demonstrate its applicability, we provide a local convergence algorithm for linear regression under another self-selection criterion, which is related to second-price auction data. Further, we give the first polynomial time local convergence algorithm for coarse Gaussian mean estimation given samples generated from a convex partition. Previously, only a sample-efficient algorithm was known due to Fotakis, Kalavasis, Kontonis, and Tzamos [FKKT21, COLT'21].

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Does Generation Require Memorization? Creative Diffusion Models using Ambient Diffusion

There is strong empirical evidence that the state-of-the-art diffusion modeling paradigm leads to models that memorize the training set, especially when the training set is small. Prior methods to mitigate the memorization problem often lead to a decrease in image quality. Is it possible to obtain strong and creative generative models, i.e., models that achieve high generation quality and low memorization? Despite the current pessimistic landscape of results, we make significant progress in pushing the trade-off between fidelity and memorization. We first provide theoretical evidence that memorization in diffusion models is only necessary for denoising problems at low noise scales (usually used in generating high-frequency details). Using this theoretical insight, we propose a simple, principled method to train the diffusion models using noisy data at large noise scales. We show that our method significantly reduces memorization without decreasing the image quality, for both text-conditional and unconditional models and for a variety of data availability settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On Characterizations for Language Generation: Interplay of Hallucinations, Breadth, and Stability

We study language generation in the limit - introduced by Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24] - building on classical works of Gold [Gol67] and Angluin [Ang79]. [KM24]'s main result is an algorithm for generating from any countable language collection in the limit. While their algorithm eventually generates unseen strings from the target language $K$, it sacrifices coverage or breadth, i.e., its ability to generate a rich set of strings. Recent work introduces different notions of breadth and explores when generation with breadth is possible, leaving a full characterization of these notions open. Our first set of results settles this by characterizing generation for existing notions of breadth and their natural extensions. Interestingly, our lower bounds are very flexible and hold for many performance metrics beyond breadth - for instance, showing that, in general, it is impossible to train generators which achieve a higher perplexity or lower hallucination rate for $K$ compared to other languages. Next, we study language generation with breadth and stable generators - algorithms that eventually stop changing after seeing an arbitrary but finite number of strings - and prove unconditional lower bounds for such generators, strengthening the results of [KMV25] and demonstrating that generation with many existing notions of breadth becomes equally hard, when stability is required. This gives a separation for generation with approximate breadth, between stable and unstable generators, highlighting the rich interplay between breadth, stability, and consistency in language generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On the Limits of Language Generation: Trade-Offs Between Hallucination and Mode Collapse

Specifying all desirable properties of a language model is challenging, but certain requirements seem essential. Given samples from an unknown language, the trained model should produce valid strings not seen in training and be expressive enough to capture the language's full richness. Otherwise, outputting invalid strings constitutes "hallucination," and failing to capture the full range leads to "mode collapse." We ask if a language model can meet both requirements. We investigate this within a statistical language generation setting building on Gold and Angluin. Here, the model receives random samples from a distribution over an unknown language K, which belongs to a possibly infinite collection of languages. The goal is to generate unseen strings from K. We say the model generates from K with consistency and breadth if, as training size increases, its output converges to all unseen strings in K. Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24] asked if consistency and breadth in language generation are possible. We answer this negatively: for a large class of language models, including next-token prediction models, this is impossible for most collections of candidate languages. This contrasts with [KM24]'s result, showing consistent generation without breadth is possible for any countable collection of languages. Our finding highlights that generation with breadth fundamentally differs from generation without breadth. As a byproduct, we establish near-tight bounds on the number of samples needed for generation with or without breadth. Finally, our results offer hope: consistent generation with breadth is achievable for any countable collection of languages when negative examples (strings outside K) are available alongside positive ones. This suggests that post-training feedback, which encodes negative examples, can be crucial in reducing hallucinations while limiting mode collapse.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Barriers to Welfare Maximization with No-Regret Learning

A celebrated result in the interface of online learning and game theory guarantees that the repeated interaction of no-regret players leads to a coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE) -- a natural game-theoretic solution concept. Despite the rich history of this foundational problem and the tremendous interest it has received in recent years, a basic question still remains open: how many iterations are needed for no-regret players to approximate an equilibrium? In this paper, we establish the first computational lower bounds for that problem in two-player (general-sum) games under the constraint that the CCE reached approximates the optimal social welfare (or some other natural objective). From a technical standpoint, our approach revolves around proving lower bounds for computing a near-optimal $T$-sparse CCE -- a mixture of $T$ product distributions, thereby circumscribing the iteration complexity of no-regret learning even in the centralized model of computation. Our proof proceeds by extending a classical reduction of Gilboa and Zemel [1989] for optimal Nash to sparse (approximate) CCE. In particular, we show that the inapproximability of maximum clique precludes attaining any non-trivial sparsity in polynomial time. Moreover, we strengthen our hardness results to apply in the low-precision regime as well via the planted clique conjecture.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Computational Lower Bounds for Regret Minimization in Normal-Form Games

A celebrated connection in the interface of online learning and game theory establishes that players minimizing swap regret converge to correlated equilibria (CE) -- a seminal game-theoretic solution concept. Despite the long history of this problem and the renewed interest it has received in recent years, a basic question remains open: how many iterations are needed to approximate an equilibrium under the usual normal-form representation? In this paper, we provide evidence that existing learning algorithms, such as multiplicative weights update, are close to optimal. In particular, we prove lower bounds for the problem of computing a CE that can be expressed as a uniform mixture of $T$ product distributions -- namely, a uniform $T$-sparse CE; such lower bounds immediately circumscribe (computationally bounded) regret minimization algorithms in games. Our results are obtained in the algorithmic framework put forward by Kothari and Mehta (STOC 2018) in the context of computing Nash equilibria, which consists of the sum-of-squares (SoS) relaxation in conjunction with oracle access to a verification oracle; the goal in that framework is to lower bound either the degree of the SoS relaxation or the number of queries to the verification oracle. Here, we obtain two such hardness results, precluding computing i) uniform $\text{log }n$-sparse CE when $\epsilon =\text{poly}(1/\text{log }n)$ and ii) uniform $n^{1 - o(1)}$-sparse CE when $\epsilon = \text{poly}(1/n)$.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Smaller Confidence Intervals From IPW Estimators via Data-Dependent Coarsening

Inverse propensity-score weighted (IPW) estimators are prevalent in causal inference for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies. Under unconfoundedness, given accurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, the size of confidence intervals of IPW estimators scales down with $n$, and, several of their variants improve the rate of scaling. However, neither IPW estimators nor their variants are robust to inaccuracies: even if a single covariate has an $\varepsilon>0$ additive error in the propensity score, the size of confidence intervals of these estimators can increase arbitrarily. Moreover, even without errors, the rate with which the confidence intervals of these estimators go to zero with $n$ can be arbitrarily slow in the presence of extreme propensity scores (those close to 0 or 1). We introduce a family of Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators that captures existing IPW estimators and their variants. Each CIPW estimator is an IPW estimator on a coarsened covariate space, where certain covariates are merged. Under mild assumptions, e.g., Lipschitzness in expected outcomes and sparsity of extreme propensity scores, we give an efficient algorithm to find a robust estimator: given $\varepsilon$-inaccurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, its confidence interval size scales with $\varepsilon+1/\sqrt{n}$. In contrast, under the same assumptions, existing estimators' confidence interval sizes are $\Omega(1)$ irrespective of $\varepsilon$ and $n$. Crucially, our estimator is data-dependent and we show that no data-independent CIPW estimator can be robust to inaccuracies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

On Sampling from Ising Models with Spectral Constraints

We consider the problem of sampling from the Ising model when the underlying interaction matrix has eigenvalues lying within an interval of length $\gamma$. Recent work in this setting has shown various algorithmic results that apply roughly when $\gamma< 1$, notably with nearly-linear running times based on the classical Glauber dynamics. However, the optimality of the range of $\gamma$ was not clear since previous inapproximability results developed for the antiferromagnetic case (where the matrix has entries $\leq 0$) apply only for $\gamma>2$. To this end, Kunisky (SODA'24) recently provided evidence that the problem becomes hard already when $\gamma>1$ based on the low-degree hardness for an inference problem on random matrices. Based on this, he conjectured that sampling from the Ising model in the same range of $\gamma$ is NP-hard. Here we confirm this conjecture, complementing in particular the known algorithmic results by showing NP-hardness results for approximately counting and sampling when $\gamma>1$, with strong inapproximability guarantees; we also obtain a more refined hardness result for matrices where only a constant number of entries per row are allowed to be non-zero. The main observation in our reductions is that, for $\gamma>1$, Glauber dynamics mixes slowly when the interactions are all positive (ferromagnetic) for the complete and random regular graphs, due to a bimodality in the underlying distribution. While ferromagnetic interactions typically preclude NP-hardness results, here we work around this by introducing in an appropriate way mild antiferromagnetism, keeping the spectrum roughly within the same range. This allows us to exploit the bimodality of the aforementioned graphs and show the target NP-hardness by adapting suitably previous inapproximability techniques developed for antiferromagnetic systems.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Injecting Undetectable Backdoors in Obfuscated Neural Networks and Language Models

As ML models become increasingly complex and integral to high-stakes domains such as finance and healthcare, they also become more susceptible to sophisticated adversarial attacks. We investigate the threat posed by undetectable backdoors, as defined in Goldwasser et al. (FOCS '22), in models developed by insidious external expert firms. When such backdoors exist, they allow the designer of the model to sell information on how to slightly perturb their input to change the outcome of the model. We develop a general strategy to plant backdoors to obfuscated neural networks, that satisfy the security properties of the celebrated notion of indistinguishability obfuscation. Applying obfuscation before releasing neural networks is a strategy that is well motivated to protect sensitive information of the external expert firm. Our method to plant backdoors ensures that even if the weights and architecture of the obfuscated model are accessible, the existence of the backdoor is still undetectable. Finally, we introduce the notion of undetectable backdoors to language models and extend our neural network backdoor attacks to such models based on the existence of steganographic functions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On the Computational Landscape of Replicable Learning

We study computational aspects of algorithmic replicability, a notion of stability introduced by Impagliazzo, Lei, Pitassi, and Sorrell [2022]. Motivated by a recent line of work that established strong statistical connections between replicability and other notions of learnability such as online learning, private learning, and SQ learning, we aim to understand better the computational connections between replicability and these learning paradigms. Our first result shows that there is a concept class that is efficiently replicably PAC learnable, but, under standard cryptographic assumptions, no efficient online learner exists for this class. Subsequently, we design an efficient replicable learner for PAC learning parities when the marginal distribution is far from uniform, making progress on a question posed by Impagliazzo et al. [2022]. To obtain this result, we design a replicable lifting framework inspired by Blanc, Lange, Malik, and Tan [2023] that transforms in a black-box manner efficient replicable PAC learners under the uniform marginal distribution over the Boolean hypercube to replicable PAC learners under any marginal distribution, with sample and time complexity that depends on a certain measure of the complexity of the distribution. Finally, we show that any pure DP learner can be transformed to a replicable one in time polynomial in the accuracy, confidence parameters and exponential in the representation dimension of the underlying hypothesis class.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Transfer Learning Beyond Bounded Density Ratios

We study the fundamental problem of transfer learning where a learning algorithm collects data from some source distribution $P$ but needs to perform well with respect to a different target distribution $Q$. A standard change of measure argument implies that transfer learning happens when the density ratio $dQ/dP$ is bounded. Yet, prior thought-provoking works by Kpotufe and Martinet (COLT, 2018) and Hanneke and Kpotufe (NeurIPS, 2019) demonstrate cases where the ratio $dQ/dP$ is unbounded, but transfer learning is possible. In this work, we focus on transfer learning over the class of low-degree polynomial estimators. Our main result is a general transfer inequality over the domain $\mathbb{R}^n$, proving that non-trivial transfer learning for low-degree polynomials is possible under very mild assumptions, going well beyond the classical assumption that $dQ/dP$ is bounded. For instance, it always applies if $Q$ is a log-concave measure and the inverse ratio $dP/dQ$ is bounded. To demonstrate the applicability of our inequality, we obtain new results in the settings of: (1) the classical truncated regression setting, where $dQ/dP$ equals infinity, and (2) the more recent out-of-distribution generalization setting for in-context learning linear functions with transformers. We also provide a discrete analogue of our transfer inequality on the Boolean Hypercube $\{-1,1\}^n$, and study its connections with the recent problem of Generalization on the Unseen of Abbe, Bengio, Lotfi and Rizk (ICML, 2023). Our main conceptual contribution is that the maximum influence of the error of the estimator $\widehat{f}-f^*$ under $Q$, $\mathrm{I}_{\max}(\widehat{f}-f^*)$, acts as a sufficient condition for transferability; when $\mathrm{I}_{\max}(\widehat{f}-f^*)$ is appropriately bounded, transfer is possible over the Boolean domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Replicable Learning of Large-Margin Halfspaces

We provide efficient replicable algorithms for the problem of learning large-margin halfspaces. Our results improve upon the algorithms provided by Impagliazzo, Lei, Pitassi, and Sorrell [STOC, 2022]. We design the first dimension-independent replicable algorithms for this task which runs in polynomial time, is proper, and has strictly improved sample complexity compared to the one achieved by Impagliazzo et al. [2022] with respect to all the relevant parameters. Moreover, our first algorithm has sample complexity that is optimal with respect to the accuracy parameter $\epsilon$. We also design an SGD-based replicable algorithm that, in some parameters' regimes, achieves better sample and time complexity than our first algorithm. Departing from the requirement of polynomial time algorithms, using the DP-to-Replicability reduction of Bun, Gaboardi, Hopkins, Impagliazzo, Lei, Pitassi, Sorrell, and Sivakumar [STOC, 2023], we show how to obtain a replicable algorithm for large-margin halfspaces with improved sample complexity with respect to the margin parameter $\tau$, but running time doubly exponential in $1/\tau^2$ and worse sample complexity dependence on $\epsilon$ than one of our previous algorithms. We then design an improved algorithm with better sample complexity than all three of our previous algorithms and running time exponential in $1/\tau^{2}$.

cs.LG↗