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Alvin J. K. Chua

Publications and source records attributed to Alvin J. K. Chua.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Transformers with Physics-Informed Encodings and Simulation-Based Inference for Robust Detection of Eccentric Binary Black Holes in Pulsar Timing Array Data

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) provide a unique window into nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs), but extracting astrophysical parameters from noisy, long-baseline timing residuals remains computationally challenging with traditional Bayesian techniques due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space, complex and correlated noise models, and the cost of repeated likelihood evaluations. We introduce a Transformer with a physics-informed positional-encoding framework for the efficient inference of eccentric binary black holes in relativistic orbits from PTA data. Our approach embeds analytical GW phase evolution directly into the model through structured positional encodings, enabling the network to learn physically meaningful representations from raw PTA timing residuals. We then use generative models, including discrete and continuous conditional normalizing flows, to infer posterior distributions within a simulation-based inference framework. Across a range of signal-to-noise ratios, the proposed method achieves improved accuracy, sharper posteriors, and faster inference compared to physics-agnostic baselines. While presented for deterministic white-noise signals, the modular framework readily generalizes to realistic PTA analyses incorporating red noise and additional components. This work highlights the potential of physics-aware deep learning models as scalable alternatives to conventional inference pipelines for next-generation PTA datasets.

cs.LG↗

Parallel adaptive reweighting importance sampling for Bayesian astrophysics

Efficient sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal posteriors is a central challenge in Bayesian inference across the physical sciences. Gravitational-wave (GW) astronomy, where likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive and posteriors are complex, is one application motivating this work. Popular families of methods like Markov-chain Monte Carlo, nested sampling, and importance sampling all rely on proposal distributions to guide exploration. Because prior knowledge of the target is often limited, practitioners can adopt adaptive proposals that iteratively refine themselves using information gained from previously drawn samples. Traditional adaptive strategies, however, struggle in high-dimensional multi-modal settings: complex, non-linear correlations are hard to capture, and hyperparameters typically require tedious, problem-specific tuning. To address these issues, we introduce Parallel Adaptive Reweighting Importance Sampling (PARIS; descriptively, ``seed sampling''). PARIS models its proposal as a Gaussian mixture whose component centers are the existing samples and whose component weights match the current importance weights. New draws from the proposal therefore concentrate around high-weight regions, while candidate points in unexplored areas receive intentionally inflated weights. As the algorithm continuously reweights all samples up to the latest proposal, any initial over-weighting self-corrects once additional neighbor samples are collected. To enable rapid reweighting, we present an efficient update scheme and evaluate PARIS on illustrative toy problems and more realistic gravitational-wave parameter estimation tasks. PARIS achieves accurate posterior reconstruction and evidence estimation with substantially fewer function evaluations than competing approaches, highlighting its promise for widespread use in astrophysical data analysis.

astro-ph.IM↗

Gravitational Wave Astronomy With TianQin

The opening of the gravitational wave window has significantly enhanced our capacity to explore the universe's most extreme and dynamic sector. In the mHz frequency range, a diverse range of compact objects, from the most massive black holes at the farthest reaches of the Universe to the lightest white dwarfs in our cosmic backyard, generate a complex and dynamic symphony of gravitational wave signals. Once recorded by gravitational wave detectors, these unique fingerprints have the potential to decipher the birth and growth of cosmic structures over a wide range of scales, from stellar binaries and stellar clusters to galaxies and large-scale structures. The TianQin space-borne gravitational wave mission is scheduled for launch in the 2030s, with an operational lifespan of five years. It will facilitate pivotal insights into the history of our universe. This document presents a concise overview of the detectable sources of TianQin, outlining their characteristics, the challenges they present, and the expected impact of the TianQin observatory on our understanding of them.

astro-ph.GA↗

Waveform Modelling for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the beginnings of inspirals that will venture into the ground-based detectors' view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA's discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This white paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome.

gr-qc↗

Hierarchical modeling of gravitational-wave populations for disentangling environmental and modified-gravity effects

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect up to thousands of extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). These sources will spend $\sim 10^5$ cycles in band, and are therefore sensitive to tiny changes in the general-relativistic dynamics, potentially induced by astrophysical environments or modifications of general relativity (GR). Previous studies have shown that these effects can be highly degenerate for a single source. However, it may be possible to distinguish between them at the population level, because environmental effects should impact only a fraction of the sources, while modifications of GR would affect all. We therefore introduce a population-based hierarchical framework to disentangle the two hypotheses. Using simulated EMRI populations, we perform tests of the null vacuum-GR hypothesis and two alternative beyond-vacuum-GR hypotheses, namely migration torques (environmental effects) and time-varying $G$ (modified gravity). We find that with as few as $\approx 20$ detected sources, our framework can statistically distinguish between these three hypotheses, and even indicate if both environmental and modified gravity effects are simultaneously present in the population. Our framework can be applied to other models of beyond-vacuum-GR effects available in the literature.

gr-qc↗

Probing fundamental physics with Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals: a full Bayesian inference for scalar charge

Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRIs) are key sources for the future space-based gravitational wave detector LISA, and are considered promising probes of fundamental physics. Here, we present the first complete Bayesian analysis of EMRI signals in theories with an additional massless scalar, which could arise in an extension of General Relativity or of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. We develop a waveform model accurate at adiabatic order for equatorial eccentric orbits around spinning black holes. Using full Bayesian inference, we forecast LISA's ability to probe the presence of new fundamental fields with EMRI observations.

gr-qc↗

The Fast and the Frame-Dragging: Efficient waveforms for asymmetric-mass eccentric equatorial inspirals into rapidly-spinning black holes

Observations of gravitational-wave signals emitted by compact binary inspirals provide unique insights into their properties, but their analysis requires accurate and efficient waveform models. Intermediate- and extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (I/EMRIs), with mass ratios $q \gtrsim 10^2$, are promising sources for future detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Modelling waveforms for these asymmetric-mass binaries is challenging, entailing the tracking of many harmonic modes over thousands to millions of cycles. The FastEMRIWaveforms (FEW) modelling framework addresses this need, leveraging precomputation of mode data and interpolation to rapidly compute adiabatic waveforms for eccentric inspirals into zero-spin black holes. In this work, we extend FEW to model eccentric equatorial inspirals into black holes with spin magnitudes $|a| \leq 0.999$. Our model supports eccentricities $e < 0.9$ and semi-latus recta $p < 200$, enabling the generation of long-duration IMRI waveforms, and produces waveforms in $\sim 100$ ms with hardware acceleration. Characterising systematic errors, we estimate that our model attains mismatches of $\sim 10^{-5}$ (for LISA sensitivity) with respect to error-free adiabatic waveforms over most of parameter space. We find that kludge models introduce errors in signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) as great as $^{+60\%}_{-40\%}$ and induce marginal biases of up to $\sim 1σ$ in parameter estimation. We show LISA's horizon redshift for I/EMRI signals varies significantly with $a$, reaching a redshift of $3$ ($15$) for EMRIs (IMRIs) with only minor $(\sim10\%)$ dependence on $e$ for an SNR threshold of 20. For signals with SNR $\sim 50$, spin and eccentricity-at-plunge are measured with uncertainties of $δa \sim 10^{-7}$ and $δe_f \sim 10^{-5}$. This work advances the state-of-the-art in waveform generation for asymmetric-mass binaries.

gr-qc↗

Bias-Corrected Importance Sampling for Inferring Beyond-Vacuum-GR Effects in Gravitational-Wave Sources

The upcoming gravitational wave (GW) observatory LISA will measure the parameters of sources like extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) to exquisite precision. These measurements will also be sensitive to perturbations to the vacuum, GR-consistent evolution of sources, which might be caused by astrophysical environments or deviations from general relativity (GR). Previous studies have shown such ``beyond-vacuum-GR'' perturbations to potentially induce severe biases ($\gtrsim 10σ$) on recovered parameters under the ``null'' vacuum-GR hypothesis. While Bayesian inference can be performed under the null hypothesis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, it is computationally infeasible to repeat for more than a modest subset of all possible beyond-vacuum-GR hypotheses. We introduce bias-corrected importance sampling, a generic inference technique for nested models that is informed by the null hypothesis posteriors and the linear signal approximation to correct any induced inference biases. For a typical EMRI source that is significantly influenced by its environment but has been inferred only under the null hypothesis, the proposed method efficiently recovers the injected (unbiased) source parameters and the true posterior at a fraction of the expense of redoing MCMC inference under the full hypothesis. In future GW data analysis using the output of the proposed LISA global-fit pipeline, such methods may be necessary for the feasible and systematic inference of beyond-vacuum-GR effects.

gr-qc↗

Relativistic model of binary extreme-mass-ratio inspiral systems and their gravitational radiation

A binary extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (b-EMRI) is a hierarchical triple system consisting of a stellar-mass binary black hole (BBH) orbiting a central Kerr supermassive black hole (SMBH). Although predicted by several astrophysical models, b-EMRIs pose a challenge in waveform modeling due to their complex three-body dynamics and strong relativistic effects. Here we take advantage of the hierarchical nature of b-EMRI systems to transform the internal motion of the small binary into global trajectories around the SMBH. This allows us to use black hole perturbation theory to calculate both the low-frequency gravitational waveform due to its EMRI nature and the high-frequency waveform generated by the inner motion of the BBH. When the inner binary's separation vanishes, our calculation recovers the standard relativistic adiabatic EMRI waveform. Furthermore, by including the high-frequency perturbation, we find a correction to the waveform as large as the adiabatic order when the frequency matches the quasinormal modes (QNMs) of the SMBH, therefore supporting an earlier proof-of-concept study claiming that the small BBH can resonantly excite the QNMs of the SMBH. More importantly, we find that b-EMRIs can evolve faster than regular EMRIs due to this resonant dissipation through the high-frequency modes. These characteristics distinguish b-EMRI waveform templates from regular EMRI templates for future space-based gravitational-wave detectors.

gr-qc↗

Alive and Strongly Kicking: Stable X-ray Quasi-Periodic Eruptions from eRO-QPE2 over 3.5 Years

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are recurring bursts of soft X-rays from the nuclei of galaxies. Their physical origin is currently a subject of debate, with models typically invoking an orbiter around a massive black hole or disk instabilities. Here we present and analyze the temporal and spectral evolution of the QPE source eRO-QPE2 over 3.5 years. We find that eRO-QPE2 1) is remarkably stable over the entire 3.5-year temporal baseline in its eruption peak luminosity, eruption temperature, quiescent temperature, and quiescent luminosity, 2) has a stable mean eruption recurrence time of 2.35 hours, with marginal ($\sim$2$σ$) evidence for a $0.1$ hour reduction over the 3.5 yr period, and 3) has a long-short variation in its recurrence time in August 2020, but this pattern is absent from all subsequent observations. The stability of its peak eruption luminosity and that of the quiescent state are notably dissimilar from three previously tracked QPEs (GSN069, eRO-QPE1, eRO-QPE3), which show declines in eruption and quiescent flux over comparable temporal baselines. This stability is even more pronounced in eRO-QPE2 due to its 2.4 hour average recurrence time compared to GSN-069's 9 hour, eRO-QPE1's 16 hour, and eRO-QPE3's 20 hour recurrence times, i.e., this system has undergone 4-8 times more cycles than these other systems over the 3.5 years of observations. We discuss the implications of these observations within the context of some proposed extreme mass ratio inspiral (EMRI) models.

astro-ph.HE↗

Impact of Correlations on the Modeling and Inference of Beyond Vacuum-GR Effects in Extreme-Mass-Ratio Inspirals

In gravitational-wave astronomy, extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral (EMRI) sources for the upcoming LISA observatory have the potential to serve as high-precision probes of astrophysical environments in galactic nuclei, and of potential deviations from general relativity (GR). Such ``beyond vacuum-GR'' effects are often modeled as perturbations to the evolution of vacuum EMRIs under GR. Previous studies have reported unprecedented constraints on these effects by examining the inference of one effect at a time. However, a more realistic analysis would require the simultaneous inference of multiple beyond vacuum-GR effects. The parameters describing such effects are generally significantly correlated with each other and the vacuum EMRI parameters. We explicitly show how these correlations remain even if any modeled effect is absent in the actual signal, and how they cause inference bias when any effect in the signal is absent in the analysis model. This worsens the overall measurability of the whole parameter set, challenging the constraints found by previous studies, and posing a general problem for the modeling and inference of beyond vacuum-GR effects in EMRIs.

gr-qc↗

Repeating Nuclear Transients as Candidate Electromagnetic Counterparts of LISA Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals

Extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are one of the primary targets for the recently adopted millihertz gravitational-wave (GW) observatory LISA. Some previous studies have argued that a fraction of all EMRIs form in matter-rich environments, and can potentially explain the dozens of soft X-ray band ($\sim 10^{-1} \rm keV$), low-frequency ($\sim 0.1$ mHz) periodic phenomena known as quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) and quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). Here, using a representative EMRI population retrofitted with cutoffs on LISA-band SNRs and luminosity distances to account for the sensitivity of current instruments, we estimate the mean frequency band in which QPEs and QPOs originating from detectable LISA EMRIs may be emitting an X-ray signal ``today'' (i.e., in 2024) to be $0.46 \pm 0.22$ mHz. We also model the well-known QPO source, RE J1034+396, which falls in this frequency band, as an EMRI assuming its primary black hole mass to be $10^6-10^7 M_\odot$. Through a prior-predictive analysis, we estimate the orbiting compact object's mass to be $46^{+ 10}_{-40} M_\odot$ and the source's LISA-band SNR as $\approx 14$, highlighting it as a candidate multi-messenger EMRI target. We also highlight the role of current and near-future X-ray and UV observatories in enabling multi-messenger observations of EMRIs in conjunction with LISA, and conclude with a discussion of caveats of the current analysis, such as the exclusion of eccentricity and inclination from the model, and the measurability of sub-solar mass compact object EMRIs.

astro-ph.HE↗

Adiabatic waveforms for extreme mass-ratio inspirals via multivoice decomposition in time and frequency

We compute adiabatic waveforms for extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) by "stitching" together a long inspiral waveform from a sequence of waveform snapshots, each of which corresponds to a particular geodesic orbit. We show that the complicated total waveform can be regarded as a sum of "voices." Each voice evolves in a simple way on long timescales, a property which can be exploited to efficiently produce waveform models that faithfully encode the properties of EMRI systems. We look at examples for a range of different orbital geometries: spherical orbits, equatorial eccentric orbits, and one example of generic (inclined and eccentric) orbits. To our knowledge, this is the first calculation of a generic EMRI waveform that uses strong-field radiation reaction. We examine waveforms in both the time and frequency domains. Although EMRIs evolve slowly enough that the stationary phase approximation (SPA) to the Fourier transform is valid, the SPA calculation must be done to higher order for some voices, since their instantaneous frequency can change from chirping forward ($\dot f > 0$) to chirping backward ($\dot f < 0$). The approach we develop can eventually be extended to more complete EMRI waveform models, for example to include effects neglected by the adiabatic approximation such as the conservative self force and spin-curvature coupling.

gr-qc↗

Posterior predictive checking for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays: I. The optimal statistic

A gravitational-wave background can be detected in pulsar-timing-array data as Hellings--Downs correlations among the timing residuals measured for different pulsars. The optimal statistic implements this concept as a classical null-hypothesis statistical test: a null model with no correlations can be rejected if the observed value of the statistic is very unlikely under that model. To address the dependence of the statistic on the uncertain pulsar noise parameters, the pulsar-timing-array community has adopted a hybrid classical--Bayesian scheme (Vigeland et al. 2018) in which the posterior distribution of the noise parameters induces a posterior distribution for the statistic. In this article we propose a rigorous interpretation of the hybrid scheme as an instance of posterior predictive checking, and we introduce a new summary statistic (the Bayesian signal-to-noise ratio) that should be used to accurately quantify the statistical significance of an observation instead of the mean posterior signal-to-noise ratio, which does not support such a direct interpretation. In addition to falsifying the no-correlation hypothesis, the Bayesian signal-to-noise ratio can also provide evidence supporting the presence of Hellings--Downs correlations. We demonstrate our proposal with simulated datasets based on NANOGrav's 12.5-yr data release. We also establish a relation between the posterior distribution of the statistic and the Bayes factor in favor of correlations, thus calibrating the Bayes factor in terms of hypothesis-testing significance.

astro-ph.HE↗

Posterior predictive checking for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays: II. Posterior predictive distributions and pseudo Bayes factors

The detection of nanoHertz gravitational waves through pulsar timing arrays hinges on identifying a common stochastic process affecting all pulsars in a correlated way across the sky. In the presence of other deterministic and stochastic processes affecting the time-of-arrival of pulses, a detection claim must be accompanied by a detailed assessment of the various physical or phenomenological models used to describe the data. In this study, we propose posterior predictive checks as a model-checking tool that relies on the predictive performance of the models with regards to new data. We derive and study predictive checks based on different components of the models, namely the Fourier coefficients of the stochastic process, the correlation pattern, and the timing residuals. We assess the ability of our checks to identify model misspecification in simulated datasets. We find that they can accurately flag a stochastic process spectral shape that deviates from the common power-law model as well as a stochastic process that does not display the expected angular correlation pattern. Posterior predictive likelihoods derived under different assumptions about the correlation pattern can further be used to establish detection significance. In the era of nanoHertz gravitational wave detection from different pulsar-timing datasets, such tests represent an essential tool in assessing data consistency and supporting astrophysical inference.

astro-ph.HE↗

Calibrating approximate Bayesian credible intervals of gravitational-wave parameters

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform models of astrophysical GW signals are sometimes used in lieu of more accurate models to infer properties of a true GW signal buried within detector noise. In addition, a Fisher-information-based normal approximation to the posterior distribution can also be used to conduct inference in bulk, without the need for extensive numerical calculations such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Such approximations can generally lead to an inaccurate posterior distribution with poor statistical coverage of the true posterior. In this article, we present a novel calibration procedure that calibrates the credible sets for a family of approximate posterior distributions, to ensure coverage of the true posterior at a level specified by the analyst. Tools such as autoencoders and artificial neural networks are used within our calibration model to compress the data (for efficiency) and to perform tasks such as logistic regression. As a proof of principle, we demonstrate our formalism on the GW signal from a high-mass binary black hole merger, a promising source for the near-future space-based GW observatory LISA.

gr-qc↗

Fast and Fourier: Extreme Mass Ratio Inspiral Waveforms in the Frequency Domain

Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRIs) are one of the key sources for future space-based gravitational wave interferometers. Measurements of EMRI gravitational waves are expected to determine the characteristics of their sources with sub-percent precision. However, their waveform generation is challenging due to the long duration of the signal and the high harmonic content. Here, we present the first ready-to-use Schwarzschild eccentric EMRI waveform implementation in the frequency domain for use with either graphics processing units (GPUs) or central processing units (CPUs). We present the overall waveform implementation and test the accuracy and performance of the frequency domain waveforms against the time domain implementation. On GPUs, the frequency domain waveform takes in median $0.044$ seconds to generate and is twice as fast to compute as its time domain counterpart when considering massive black hole masses $\geq 2 \times 10^6 \,{\rm M_\odot}$ and initial eccentricities $e_0 > 0.2$. On CPUs, the median waveform evaluation time is $5$ seconds, and it is five times faster in the frequency domain than in the time domain. Using a sparser frequency array can further speed up the waveform generation, reaching up to $ 0.3$ seconds. This enables us to perform, for the first time, EMRI parameter inference with fully relativistic waveforms on CPUs. Future EMRI models which encompass wider source characteristics (particularly black hole spin and generic orbit geometries) will require significantly more harmonics. Frequency-domain models will be essential analysis tools for these astrophysically realistic and important signals.

gr-qc↗

Improving the scalability of Gaussian-process error marginalization in gravitational-wave inference

The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster but approximate ones. The model error introduced by this substitution can be mitigated in various ways, one of which is by interpolating and marginalizing over the error using Gaussian process regression. However, the use of Gaussian process regression is limited by the curse of dimensionality, which makes it less effective for analyzing higher-dimensional parameter spaces and longer signal durations. In this work, to address this limitation, we focus on gravitational-wave signals from extreme-mass-ratio inspirals as an example, and propose several significant improvements to the base method: an improved prescription for constructing the training set, GPU-accelerated training algorithms, and a new likelihood that better adapts the base method to the presence of detector noise. Our results suggest that the new method is more viable for the analysis of realistic gravitational-wave data.

astro-ph.IM↗