arXiv subjects

Anastasios Noulas

Publications and source records attributed to Anastasios Noulas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Modeling Urban Air Quality Using Taxis as Sensors

Monitoring urban air quality with high spatiotemporal resolution continues to pose significant challenges. We investigate the use of taxi fleets as mobile sensing platforms, analyzing over 100 million PM2.5 readings from more than 3,000 vehicles across six major U.S. cities during one year. Our findings show that taxis provide fine-grained, street-level air quality insights while ensuring city-wide coverage. We further explore urban air quality modeling using traffic congestion, built environment, and human mobility data to predict pollution variability. Our results highlight geography-specific seasonal patterns and demonstrate that models based solely on traffic and wind speeds effectively capture a city's pollution dynamics. This study establishes taxi fleets as a scalable, near-real-time air quality monitoring tool, offering new opportunities for environmental research and data-driven policymaking.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Modelling Urban Dynamics with Multi-Modal Graph Convolutional Networks

Modelling the dynamics of urban venues is a challenging task as it is multifaceted in nature. Demand is a function of many complex and nonlinear features such as neighborhood composition, real-time events, and seasonality. Recent advances in Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have had promising results as they build a graphical representation of a system and harness the potential of deep learning architectures. However, there has been limited work using GCNs in a temporal setting to model dynamic dependencies of the network. Further, within the context of urban environments, there has been no prior work using dynamic GCNs to support venue demand analysis and prediction. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework which aims to better model the popularity and growth of urban venues. Using a longitudinal dataset from location technology platform Foursquare, we model individual venues and venue types across London and Paris. First, representing cities as connected networks of venues, we quantify their structure and note a strong community structure in these retail networks, an observation that highlights the interplay of cooperative and competitive forces that emerge in local ecosystems of retail businesses. Next, we present our deep learning architecture which integrates both spatial and topological features into a temporal model which predicts the demand of a venue at the subsequent time-step. Our experiments demonstrate that our model can learn spatio-temporal trends of venue demand and consistently outperform baseline models. Relative to state-of-the-art deep learning models, our model reduces the RSME by ~ 28% in London and ~ 13% in Paris. Our approach highlights the power of complex network measures and GCNs in building prediction models for urban environments. The model could have numerous applications within the retail sector to better model venue demand and growth.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Modelling Cooperation and Competition in Urban Retail Ecosystems with Complex Network Metrics

Understanding the impact that a new business has on the local market ecosystem is a challenging task as it is multifaceted in nature. Past work in this space has examined the collaborative or competitive role of homogeneous venue types (i.e. the impact of a new bookstore on existing bookstores). However, these prior works have been limited in their scope and explanatory power. To better measure retail performance in a modern city, a model should consider a number of factors that interact synchronously. This paper is the first which considers the multifaceted types of interactions that occur in urban cities when examining the impact of new businesses. We first present a modeling framework which examines the role of new businesses in their respective local areas. Using a longitudinal dataset from location technology platform Foursquare, we model new venue impact across 26 major cities worldwide. Representing cities as connected networks of venues, we quantify their structure and characterise their dynamics over time. We note a strong community structure emerging in these retail networks, an observation that highlights the interplay of cooperative and competitive forces that emerge in local ecosystems of retail establishments. We next devise a data-driven metric that captures the first-order correlation on the impact of a new venue on retailers within its vicinity accounting for both homogeneous and heterogeneous interactions between venue types. Lastly, we build a supervised machine learning model to predict the impact of a given new venue on its local retail ecosystem. Our approach highlights the power of complex network measures in building machine learning prediction models. These models have numerous applications within the retail sector and can support policymakers, business owners, and urban planners in the development of models to characterize and predict changes in urban settings.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Leveraging Mobility Flows from Location Technology Platforms to Test Crime Pattern Theory in Large Cities

Crime has been previously explained by social characteristics of the residential population and, as stipulated by crime pattern theory, might also be linked to human movements of non-residential visitors. Yet a full empirical validation of the latter is lacking. The prime reason is that prior studies are limited to aggregated statistics of human visitors rather than mobility flows and, because of that, neglect the temporal dynamics of individual human movements. As a remedy, we provide the first work which studies the ability of granular human mobility in describing and predicting crime concentrations at an hourly scale. For this purpose, we propose the use of data from location technology platforms. This type of data allows us to trace individual transitions and, therefore, we succeed in distinguishing different mobility flows that (i) are incoming or outgoing from a neighborhood, (ii) remain within it, or (iii) refer to transitions where people only pass through the neighborhood. Our evaluation infers mobility flows by leveraging an anonymized dataset from Foursquare that includes almost 14.8 million consecutive check-ins in three major U.S. cities. According to our empirical results, mobility flows are significantly and positively linked to crime. These findings advance our theoretical understanding, as they provide confirmatory evidence for crime pattern theory. Furthermore, our novel use of digital location services data proves to be an effective tool for crime forecasting. It also offers unprecedented granularity when studying the connection between human mobility and crime.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Mobile Recognition of Wikipedia Featured Sites using Deep Learning and Crowd-sourced Imagery

Rendering Wikipedia content through mobile and augmented reality mediums can enable new forms of interaction in urban-focused user communities facilitating learning, communication and knowledge exchange. With this objective in mind, in this work we develop a mobile application that allows for the recognition of notable sites featured on Wikipedia. The application is powered by a deep neural network that has been trained on crowd-sourced imagery describing sites of interest, such as buildings, statues, museums or other physical entities that are present and visually accessible in an urban environment. We describe an end-to-end pipeline that describes data collection, model training and evaluation of our application considering online and real world scenarios. We identify a number of challenges in the site recognition task which arise due to visual similarities amongst the classified sites as well as due to noise introduce by the surrounding built environment. We demonstrate how using mobile contextual information, such as user location, orientation and attention patterns can significantly alleviate such challenges. Moreover, we present an unsupervised learning technique to de-noise crowd-sourced imagery which improves classification performance further.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Exploiting Population Activity Dynamics to Predict Urban Epidemiological Incidence

Ambulance services worldwide are of vital importance to population health. Timely responding to incidents by dispatching an ambulance vehicle to the location a call came from can offer significant benefits to patient care across a number of medical conditions. Moreover, identifying the reasons that drive ambulance activity at an area not only can improve the operational capacity of emergency services, but can lead to better policy design in healthcare. In this work, we analyse the temporal dynamics of 5.6 million ambulance calls across a region of 7 million residents in the UK. We identify characteristic temporal patterns featuring diurnal and weekly cycles in ambulance call activity. These patterns are stable over time and across geographies. Using a dataset sourced from location intelligence platform Foursquare, we establish a link between the spatio-temporal dynamics of mobile users engaging with urban activities locally and emergency incidents. We use this information to build a novel metric that assesses the health risk of a geographic area in terms of its propensity to yield ambulance calls. Formulating then an online classification task where the goal becomes to identify which regions will need an ambulance at a given time, we demonstrate how semantic information about real world places crowdsourced through online platforms, can become a useful source of information in understanding and predicting regional epidemiological trends.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Modelling Metropolitan-area Ambulance Mobility under Blue Light Conditions

Actions taken immediately following a life-threatening personal health incident are critical for the survival of the sufferer. The timely arrival of specialist ambulance crew in particular often makes the difference between life and death. As a consequence, it is critical that emergency ambulance services achieve short response times. This objective sets a considerable challenge to ambulance services worldwide, especially in metropolitan areas where the density of incident occurrence and traffic congestion are high. Using London as a case study, in this paper we consider the advantages and limitations of data-driven methods for ambulance routing and navigation. Our long-term aim is to enable considerable improvements to their operational efficiency through the automated generation of more effective response strategies and tactics. A key ingredient of our approach is to use a large historical dataset of incidents and ambulance location traces to model route selection and arrival times. Working on the London road network graph modified to reflect the differences between emergency and civilian vehicle traffic, we develop a methodology for the precise estimation of expected ambulance speed at the individual road segment level. We demonstrate how a model that exploits this information achieves best predictive performance by implicitly capturing route-specific persistent patterns in changing traffic conditions. We then present a predictive method that achieves a high route similarity score while minimising journey duration error. This is achieved through the combination of a technique that correctly predicts routes selected by the current navigation system of the London Ambulance Service and our best performing speed estimation model. This hybrid approach outperforms alternative mobility models.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Evaluating the impact of the 2012 Olympic Games policy on the regeneration of East London using spatio-temporal big data

For urban governments, introducing policies has long been adopted as a main approach to instigate regeneration processes, and to promote social mixing and vitality within the city. However, due to the absence of large fine-grained datasets, the effects of these policies have been historically hard to evaluate. In this research, we illustrate how a combination of large-scale datasets, the Index of Deprivation and Foursquare data (an online geo-social network service) could be used to investigate the impact of the 2012 Olympic Games on the regeneration of East London neighbourhoods. We study and quantify both the physical and socio-economic aspects of this, where our empirical findings suggest that the target areas did indeed undergo regeneration after the Olympic project in some ways. In general, the growth rate of Foursquare venue density in Olympic host boroughs is higher than the city's average level since the preparation period of the Games and up to two years after the event. Furthermore, the deprivation levels in East London boroughs also saw improvements in various aspects after the Olympic Games. One negative outcome we notice is that the housing affordability becomes even more of an issue in East London areas with the regeneration gradually unfolding.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Detecting Socio-Economic Impact of Cultural Investment Through Geo-Social Network Analysis

Taking advantage of nearly 4 million transition records for three years in London from a popular location-based social network service, Foursquare, we study how to track the impact and measure the effectiveness of cultural investment in small urban areas. We reveal the underlying relationships between socio-economic status, local cultural expenditure, and network features extracted from user mobility trajectories. This research presents how geo-social and mobile services more generally can be used as a proxy to track local changes as government financial effort is put in developing urban areas, and thus gives evidence and suggestions for further policy-making and investment optimization.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Discovering Latent Patterns of Urban Cultural Interactions in WeChat for Modern City Planning

Cultural activity is an inherent aspect of urban life and the success of a modern city is largely determined by its capacity to offer generous cultural entertainment to its citizens. To this end, the optimal allocation of cultural establishments and related resources across urban regions becomes of vital importance, as it can reduce financial costs in terms of planning and improve quality of life in the city, more generally. In this paper, we make use of a large longitudinal dataset of user location check-ins from the online social network WeChat to develop a data-driven framework for cultural planning in the city of Beijing. We exploit rich spatio-temporal representations on user activity at cultural venues and use a novel extended version of the traditional latent Dirichlet allocation model that incorporates temporal information to identify latent patterns of urban cultural interactions. Using the characteristic typologies of mobile user cultural activities emitted by the model, we determine the levels of demand for different types of cultural resources across urban areas. We then compare those with the corresponding levels of supply as driven by the presence and spatial reach of cultural venues in local areas to obtain high resolution maps that indicate urban regions with lack of cultural resources, and thus give suggestions for further urban cultural planning and investment optimisation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Cultural Investment and Urban Socio-Economic Development: A Geo-Social Network Approach

Being able to assess the impact of government-led investment onto socio-economic indicators in cities has long been an important target of urban planning. However, due to the lack of large-scale data with a fine spatio-temporal resolution, there have been limitations in terms of how planners can track the impact and measure the effectiveness of cultural investment in small urban areas. Taking advantage of nearly 4 million transition records for three years in London from a popular location-based social network service, Foursquare, we study how the socio-economic impact of government cultural expenditure can be detected and predicted. Our analysis shows that network indicators such as average clustering coefficient or centrality can be exploited to estimate the likelihood of local growth in response to cultural investment. We subsequently integrate these features in supervised learning models to infer socio-economic deprivation changes for London's neighbourhoods. This research presents how geo-social and mobile services can be used as a proxy to track and predict socio-economic deprivation changes as government financial effort is put in developing urban areas and thus gives evidence and suggestions for further policy-making and investment optimisation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Predicting the temporal activity patterns of new venues

Estimating revenue and business demand of a newly opened venue is paramount as these early stages often involve critical decisions such as first rounds of staffing and resource allocation. Traditionally, this estimation has been performed through coarse-grained measures such as observing numbers in local venues or venues at similar places (e.g., coffee shops around another station in the same city). The advent of crowdsourced data from devices and services carried by individuals on a daily basis has opened up the possibility of performing better predictions of temporal visitation patterns for locations and venues. In this paper, using mobility data from Foursquare, a location-centric platform, we treat venue categories as proxies for urban activities and analyze how they become popular over time. The main contribution of this work is a prediction framework able to use characteristic temporal signatures of places together with k-nearest neighbor metrics capturing similarities among urban regions, to forecast weekly popularity dynamics of a new venue establishment in a city neighborhood. We further show how we are able to forecast the popularity of the new venue after one month following its opening by using locality and temporal similarity as features. For the evaluation of our approach we focus on London. We show that temporally similar areas of the city can be successfully used as inputs of predictions of the visit patterns of new venues, with an improvement of 41% compared to a random selection of wards as a training set for the prediction task. We apply these concepts of temporally similar areas and locality to the real-time predictions related to new venues and show that these features can effectively be used to predict the future trends of a venue. Our findings have the potential to impact the design of location-based technologies and decisions made by new business owners.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Foursquare to The Rescue: Predicting Ambulance Calls Across Geographies

Understanding how ambulance incidents are spatially distributed can shed light to the epidemiological dynamics of geographic areas and inform healthcare policy design. Here we analyze a longitudinal dataset of more than four million ambulance calls across a region of twelve million residents in the North West of England. With the aim to explain geographic variations in ambulance call frequencies, we employ a wide range of data layers including open government datasets describing population demographics and socio-economic characteristics, as well as geographic activity in online services such as Foursquare. Working at a fine level of spatial granularity we demonstrate that daytime population levels and the deprivation status of an area are the most important variables when it comes to predicting the volume of ambulance calls at an area. Foursquare check-ins on the other hand complement these government sourced indicators, offering a novel view to population nightlife and commercial activity locally. We demonstrate how check-in activity can provide an edge when predicting certain types of emergency incidents in a multi-variate regression model.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Developing and Deploying a Taxi Price Comparison Mobile App in the Wild: Insights and Challenges

As modern transportation systems become more complex, there is need for mobile applications that allow travelers to navigate efficiently in cities. In taxi transport the recent proliferation of Uber has introduced new norms including a flexible pricing scheme where journey costs can change rapidly depending on passenger demand and driver supply. To make informed choices on the most appropriate provider for their journeys, travelers need access to knowledge about provider pricing in real time. To this end, we developed OpenStreetcab a mobile application that offers advice on taxi transport comparing provider prices. We describe its development and deployment in two cities, London and New York, and analyse thousands of user journey queries to compare the price patterns of Uber against major local taxi providers. We have observed large heterogeneity across the taxi transport markets in the two cities. This motivated us to perform a price validation and measurement experiment on the ground comparing Uber and Black Cabs in London. The experimental results reveal interesting insights: not only they confirm feedback on pricing and service quality received by professional drivers users, but also they reveal the tradeoffs between prices and journey times between taxi providers. With respect to journey times in particular, we show how experienced taxi drivers, in the majority of the cases, are able to navigate faster to a destination compared to drivers who rely on modern navigation systems. We provide evidence that this advantage becomes stronger in the centre of a city where urban density is high.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2015

Tracking Urban Activity Growth Globally with Big Location Data

In recent decades the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localised while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally we attempt to use the dataset to characterise competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place categories however, such as Airport Gates or Museums, have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

A Multilayer Approach to Multiplexity and Link Prediction in Online Geo-Social Networks

Online social systems are multiplex in nature as multiple links may exist between the same two users across different social networks. In this work, we introduce a framework for studying links and interactions between users beyond the individual social network. Exploring the cross-section of two popular online platforms - Twitter and location-based social network Foursquare - we represent the two together as a composite multilayer online social network. Through this paradigm we study the interactions of pairs of users differentiating between those with links on one or both networks. We find that users with multiplex links, who are connected on both networks, interact more and have greater neighbourhood overlap on both platforms, in comparison with pairs who are connected on just one of the social networks. In particular, the most frequented locations of users are considerably closer, and similarity is considerably greater among multiplex links. We present a number of structural and interaction features, such as the multilayer Adamic/Adar coefficient, which are based on the extension of the concept of the node neighbourhood beyond the single network. Our evaluation, which aims to shed light on the implications of multiplexity for the link generation process, shows that multilayer features, constructed from properties across social networks, perform better than their single network counterparts in predicting links across networks. We propose that combining information from multiple networks in a multilayer configuration can provide new insights into user interactions on online social networks, and can significantly improve link prediction overall with valuable applications to social bootstrapping and friend recommendations.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Mining Open Datasets for Transparency in Taxi Transport in Metropolitan Environments

Uber has recently been introducing novel practices in urban taxi transport. Journey prices can change dynamically in almost real time and also vary geographically from one area to another in a city, a strategy known as surge pricing. In this paper, we explore the power of the new generation of open datasets towards understanding the impact of the new disruption technologies that emerge in the area of public transport. With our primary goal being a more transparent economic landscape for urban commuters, we provide a direct price comparison between Uber and the Yellow Cab company in New York. We discover that Uber, despite its lower standard pricing rates, effectively charges higher fares on average, especially during short in length, but frequent in occurrence, taxi journeys. Building on this insight, we develop a smartphone application, OpenStreetCab, that offers a personalized consultation to mobile users on which taxi provider is cheaper for their journey. Almost five months after its launch, the app has attracted more than three thousand users in a single city. Their journey queries have provided additional insights on the potential savings similar technologies can have for urban commuters, with a highlight being that on average, a user in New York saves 6 U.S. Dollars per taxi journey if they pick the cheapest taxi provider. We run extensive experiments to show how Uber's surge pricing is the driving factor of higher journey prices and therefore higher potential savings for our application's users. Finally, motivated by the observation that Uber's surge pricing is occurring more frequently that intuitively expected, we formulate a prediction task where the aim becomes to predict a geographic area's tendency to surge. Using exogenous to Uber datasets we show how it is possible to estimate customer demand within an area, and by extension surge pricing, with high accuracy.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2015

Topological Properties and Temporal Dynamics of Place Networks in Urban Environments

Understanding the spatial networks formed by the trajectories of mobile users can be beneficial to applications ranging from epidemiology to local search. Despite the potential for impact in a number of fields, several aspects of human mobility networks remain largely unexplored due to the lack of large-scale data at a fine spatiotemporal resolution. Using a longitudinal dataset from the location-based service Foursquare, we perform an empirical analysis of the topological properties of place networks and note their resemblance to online social networks in terms of heavy-tailed degree distributions, triadic closure mechanisms and the small world property. Unlike social networks however, place networks present a mixture of connectivity trends in terms of assortativity that are surprisingly similar to those of the web graph. We take advantage of additional semantic information to interpret how nodes that take on functional roles such as `travel hub', or `food spot' behave in these networks. Finally, motivated by the large volume of new links appearing in place networks over time, we formulate the classic link prediction problem in this new domain. We propose a novel variant of gravity models that brings together three essential elements of inter-place connectivity in urban environments: network-level interactions, human mobility dynamics, and geographic distance. We evaluate this model and find it outperforms a number of baseline predictors and supervised learning algorithms on a task of predicting new links in a sample of one hundred popular cities.

cs.SI↗