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Anthony Ebert

Publications and source records attributed to Anthony Ebert.

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Combined parameter and state inference with automatically calibrated ABC

State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations, is the subject of much recent literature. This problem is compounded once we consider models with intractable likelihoods. In these situations, some emerging approaches have incorporated existing likelihood-free techniques for static parameters, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) into likelihood-based algorithms for combined inference of parameters and states. These emerging approaches currently require extensive manual calibration of a time-indexed tuning parameter: the acceptance threshold. We design an SMC$^2$ algorithm (Chopin et al., 2013, JRSS B) for likelihood-free approximation with automatically tuned thresholds. We prove consistency of the algorithm and discuss the proposed calibration. We demonstrate this algorithm's performance with three examples. We begin with two examples of state space models. The first example is a toy example, with an emission distribution that is a skew normal distribution. The second example is a stochastic volatility model involving an intractable stable distribution. The last example is the most challenging; it deals with an inhomogeneous Hawkes process.

stat.CO

Likelihood-free parameter estimation for dynamic queueing networks: case study of passenger flow in an international airport terminal

Dynamic queueing networks (DQN) model queueing systems where demand varies strongly with time, such as airport terminals. With rapidly rising global air passenger traffic placing increasing pressure on airport terminals, efficient allocation of resources is more important than ever. Parameter inference and quantification of uncertainty are key challenges for developing decision support tools. The DQN likelihood function is, in general, intractable and current approaches to simulation make likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), infeasible since simulating from these models is computationally expensive. By leveraging a recent advance in computationally efficient queueing simulation, we develop the first parameter inference approach for DQNs. We demonstrate our approach with data of passenger flows in a real airport terminal, and we show that our model accurately recreates the behaviour of the system and is useful for decision support. Special care must be taken in developing the distance for ABC since any useful output must vary with time. We use maximum mean discrepancy, a metric on probability measures, as the distance function for ABC. Prediction intervals of performance measures for decision support tools are easily constructed using draws from posterior samples, which we demonstrate with a scenario of a delayed flight.

stat.ME

Computationally Efficient Simulation of Queues: The R Package queuecomputer

Large networks of queueing systems model important real-world systems such as MapReduce clusters, web-servers, hospitals, call centers and airport passenger terminals. To model such systems accurately, we must infer queueing parameters from data. Unfortunately, for many queueing networks there is no clear way to proceed with parameter inference from data. Approximate Bayesian computation could offer a straightforward way to infer parameters for such networks if we could simulate data quickly enough. We present a computationally efficient method for simulating from a very general set of queueing networks with the R package queuecomputer. Remarkable speedups of more than 2 orders of magnitude are observed relative to the popular DES packages simmer and simpy. We replicate output from these packages to validate the package. The package is modular and integrates well with the popular R package dplyr. Complex queueing networks with tandem, parallel and fork/join topologies can easily be built with these two packages together. We show how to use this package with two examples: a call center and an airport terminal.

stat.CO