Combined parameter and state inference with automatically calibrated ABC

Abstract

State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations, is the subject of much recent literature. This problem is compounded once we consider models with intractable likelihoods. In these situations, some emerging approaches have incorporated existing likelihood-free techniques for static parameters, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) into likelihood-based algorithms for combined inference of parameters and states. These emerging approaches currently require extensive manual calibration of a time-indexed tuning parameter: the acceptance threshold. We design an SMC$^2$ algorithm (Chopin et al., 2013, JRSS B) for likelihood-free approximation with automatically tuned thresholds. We prove consistency of the algorithm and discuss the proposed calibration. We demonstrate this algorithm's performance with three examples. We begin with two examples of state space models. The first example is a toy example, with an emission distribution that is a skew normal distribution. The second example is a stochastic volatility model involving an intractable stable distribution. The last example is the most challenging; it deals with an inhomogeneous Hawkes process.