arXiv subjects

Aron Culotta

Publications and source records attributed to Aron Culotta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

How Does Empowering Users with Greater System Control Affect News Filter Bubbles?

While recommendation systems enable users to find articles of interest, they can also create ``filter bubbles'' by presenting content that reinforces users' pre-existing beliefs. Users are often unaware that the system placed them in a filter bubble and, even when aware, they often lack direct control over it. To address these issues, we first design a political news recommendation system augmented with an enhanced interface that exposes the political and topical interests the system inferred from user behavior. This allows the user to adjust the recommendation system to receive more articles on a particular topic or presenting a particular political stance. We then conduct a user study to compare our system to a traditional interface and found that the transparent approach helped users realize that they were in a filter bubble. Additionally, the enhanced system led to less extreme news for most users but also allowed others to move the system to more extremes. Similarly, while many users moved the system from extreme liberal/conservative to the center, this came at the expense of reducing political diversity of the articles shown. These findings suggest that, while the proposed system increased awareness of the filter bubbles, it had heterogeneous effects on news consumption depending on user preferences.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

Characterizing Online Criticism of Partisan News Media Using Weakly Supervised Learning

We propose novel methods to identify tweets that criticize partisan news sources. Prior work suggests that criticism, ridicule, and distrust of news media all play important roles in hyperpartisanship, misinformation, and filter bubble formation. Thus, understanding the prevalence and temporal dynamics of media-targeted criticism can provide us with updated tools to assess the health of the information ecosystem. There is a scarcity of labeled data for this task, and we develop a weakly supervised learning approach that leverages multiple noisy labeling functions based on both the content of the tweet as well as the historical news sharing behavior of the user. Using this classifier, we explore how tweets expressing criticism vary by user, news source, and time, finding substantial spikes in media criticism during politically polarizing events, such as the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S.~elections and the 2017 ``unite the right'' rally in Charlottesville. This type of media-targeting criticism is also more likely to occur after users have been exposed to unreliable and hyperpartisan media.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Political News Engagement on Social Media

Understanding how political news consumption changes over time can provide insights into issues such as hyperpartisanship, filter bubbles, and misinformation. To investigate long-term trends of news consumption, we curate a collection of over 60M tweets from politically engaged users over seven years, annotating ~10% with mentions of news outlets and their political leaning. We then train a neural network to forecast the political lean of news articles Twitter users will engage with, considering both past news engagements as well as tweet content. Using the learned representation of this model, we cluster users to discover salient patterns of long-term news engagement. Our findings include the following: (1) hyperpartisan users are more engaged with news; (2) right-leaning users engage with contra-partisan sources more than left-leaning users; (3) topics such as immigration, COVID-19, Islamaphobia, and gun control are salient indicators of engagement with low quality news sources.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Using Text-Based Causal Inference to Disentangle Factors Influencing Online Review Ratings

Online reviews provide valuable insights into the perceived quality of facets of a product or service. While aspect-based sentiment analysis has focused on extracting these facets from reviews, there is less work understanding the impact of each aspect on overall perception. This is particularly challenging given correlations among aspects, making it difficult to isolate the effects of each. This paper introduces a methodology based on recent advances in text-based causal analysis, specifically CausalBERT, to disentangle the effect of each factor on overall review ratings. We enhance CausalBERT with three key improvements: temperature scaling for better calibrated treatment assignment estimates; hyperparameter optimization to reduce confound overadjustment; and interpretability methods to characterize discovered confounds. In this work, we treat the textual mentions in reviews as proxies for real-world attributes. We validate our approach on real and semi-synthetic data from over 600K reviews of U.S. K-12 schools. We find that the proposed enhancements result in more reliable estimates, and that perception of school administration and performance on benchmarks are significant drivers of overall school ratings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

The Illusion of Fairness: Auditing Fairness Interventions with Audit Studies

Artificial intelligence systems, especially those using machine learning, are being deployed in domains from hiring to loan issuance in order to automate these complex decisions. Judging both the effectiveness and fairness of these AI systems, and their human decision making counterpart, is a complex and important topic studied across both computational and social sciences. Within machine learning, a common way to address bias in downstream classifiers is to resample the training data to offset disparities. For example, if hiring rates vary by some protected class, then one may equalize the rate within the training set to alleviate bias in the resulting classifier. While simple and seemingly effective, these methods have typically only been evaluated using data obtained through convenience samples, introducing selection bias and label bias into metrics. Within the social sciences, psychology, public health, and medicine, audit studies, in which fictitious ``testers'' (e.g., resumes, emails, patient actors) are sent to subjects (e.g., job openings, businesses, doctors) in randomized control trials, provide high quality data that support rigorous estimates of discrimination. In this paper, we investigate how data from audit studies can be used to improve our ability to both train and evaluate automated hiring algorithms. We find that such data reveals cases where the common fairness intervention method of equalizing base rates across classes appears to achieve parity using traditional measures, but in fact has roughly 10% disparity when measured appropriately. We additionally introduce interventions based on individual treatment effect estimation methods that further reduce algorithmic discrimination using this data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A Computational Analysis and Visualization of In-Text Reference Networks Across Philosophical Texts

We applied computational methods to analyze references across 2,245 philosophical texts, spanning from approximately 550 BCE to 1940 AD, in order to measure patterns in how philosophical ideas have spread over time. Using natural language processing and network analysis, we mapped over 294,970 references between authors, classifying each reference into subdisciplines of philosophy based on its surrounding context. We then constructed a graph, with authors as nodes and textual references as edges, to empirically validate, visualize, and quantify intellectual lineages as they are understood within philosophical scholarship. For instance, we find that Plato and Aristotle alone account for nearly 10% of all references from authors in our dataset, suggesting that their influence may still be underestimated. As another example, we support the view that St. Thomas Aquinas served as a synthesizer between Aristotelian and Christian philosophy by analyzing the network structures of Aquinas, Aristotle, and Christian theologians. Our results are presented through an interactive visualization tool, allowing users to dynamically explore these networks, alongside a mathematical analysis of the network's structure. Our methodology demonstrates the value of applying network analysis with textual references to study a large collection of historical works.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2022

Leaders or Followers? A Temporal Analysis of Tweets from IRA Trolls

The Internet Research Agency (IRA) influences online political conversations in the United States, exacerbating existing partisan divides and sowing discord. In this paper we investigate the IRA's communication strategies by analyzing trending terms on Twitter to identify cases in which the IRA leads or follows other users. Our analysis focuses on over 38M tweets posted between 2016 and 2017 from IRA users (n=3,613), journalists (n=976), members of Congress (n=526), and politically engaged users from the general public (n=71,128). We find that the IRA tends to lead on topics related to the 2016 election, race, and entertainment, suggesting that these are areas both of strategic importance as well having the highest potential impact. Furthermore, we identify topics where the IRA has been relatively ineffective, such as tweets on military, political scandals, and violent attacks. Despite many tweets on these topics, the IRA rarely leads the conversation and thus has little opportunity to influence it. We offer our proposed methodology as a way to track the strategic choices of future influence operations in real-time.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Enhancing Model Robustness and Fairness with Causality: A Regularization Approach

Recent work has raised concerns on the risk of spurious correlations and unintended biases in statistical machine learning models that threaten model robustness and fairness. In this paper, we propose a simple and intuitive regularization approach to integrate causal knowledge during model training and build a robust and fair model by emphasizing causal features and de-emphasizing spurious features. Specifically, we first manually identify causal and spurious features with principles inspired from the counterfactual framework of causal inference. Then, we propose a regularization approach to penalize causal and spurious features separately. By adjusting the strength of the penalty for each type of feature, we build a predictive model that relies more on causal features and less on non-causal features. We conduct experiments to evaluate model robustness and fairness on three datasets with multiple metrics. Empirical results show that the new models built with causal awareness significantly improve model robustness with respect to counterfactual texts and model fairness with respect to sensitive attributes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Robustness to Spurious Correlations in Text Classification via Automatically Generated Counterfactuals

Spurious correlations threaten the validity of statistical classifiers. While model accuracy may appear high when the test data is from the same distribution as the training data, it can quickly degrade when the test distribution changes. For example, it has been shown that classifiers perform poorly when humans make minor modifications to change the label of an example. One solution to increase model reliability and generalizability is to identify causal associations between features and classes. In this paper, we propose to train a robust text classifier by augmenting the training data with automatically generated counterfactual data. We first identify likely causal features using a statistical matching approach. Next, we generate counterfactual samples for the original training data by substituting causal features with their antonyms and then assigning opposite labels to the counterfactual samples. Finally, we combine the original data and counterfactual data to train a robust classifier. Experiments on two classification tasks show that a traditional classifier trained on the original data does very poorly on human-generated counterfactual samples (e.g., 10%-37% drop in accuracy). However, the classifier trained on the combined data is more robust and performs well on both the original test data and the counterfactual test data (e.g., 12%-25% increase in accuracy compared with the traditional classifier). Detailed analysis shows that the robust classifier makes meaningful and trustworthy predictions by emphasizing causal features and de-emphasizing non-causal features.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Identifying Spurious Correlations for Robust Text Classification

The predictions of text classifiers are often driven by spurious correlations -- e.g., the term `Spielberg' correlates with positively reviewed movies, even though the term itself does not semantically convey a positive sentiment. In this paper, we propose a method to distinguish spurious and genuine correlations in text classification. We treat this as a supervised classification problem, using features derived from treatment effect estimators to distinguish spurious correlations from "genuine" ones. Due to the generic nature of these features and their small dimensionality, we find that the approach works well even with limited training examples, and that it is possible to transport the word classifier to new domains. Experiments on four datasets (sentiment classification and toxicity detection) suggest that using this approach to inform feature selection also leads to more robust classification, as measured by improved worst-case accuracy on the samples affected by spurious correlations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Are Words Commensurate with Actions? Quantifying Commitment to a Cause from Online Public Messaging

Public entities such as companies and politicians increasingly use online social networks to communicate directly with their constituencies. Often, this public messaging is aimed at aligning the entity with a particular cause or issue, such as the environment or public health. However, as a consumer or voter, it can be difficult to assess an entity's true commitment to a cause based on public messaging. In this paper, we present a text classification approach to categorize a message according to its commitment level toward a cause. We then compare the volume of such messages with external ratings based on entities' actions (e.g., a politician's voting record with respect to the environment or a company's rating from environmental non-profits). We find that by distinguishing between low- and high- level commitment messages, we can more reliably identify truly committed entities. Furthermore, by measuring the discrepancy between classified messages and external ratings, we can identify entities whose public messaging does not align with their actions, thereby providing a methodology to identify potentially "inauthentic" messaging campaigns.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Personality and Behavior in Role-based Online Games

Both offline and online human behaviors are affected by personality. Of special interests are online games, where players have to impersonate specific roles and their behaviors are extensively tracked by the game. In this paper, we propose to study the relationship between players' personality and game behavior in League of Legends (LoL), one of the most popular Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games. We use linear mixed effects (LME) models to describe relationships between players' personality traits (measured by the Five Factor Model) and two major aspects of the game: the impersonated roles and in-game actions. On the one hand, we study relationships within the game environment by modeling role attributes from match behaviors and vice versa. On the other hand, we analyze the relationship between a player's five personality traits and their game behavior by showing significant correlations between each personality trait and the set of corresponding behaviors. Our findings suggest that personality and behavior are highly entangled and provide a new perspective to understand how personality can affect behavior in role-based online games.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2018

When do Words Matter? Understanding the Impact of Lexical Choice on Audience Perception using Individual Treatment Effect Estimation

Studies across many disciplines have shown that lexical choice can affect audience perception. For example, how users describe themselves in a social media profile can affect their perceived socio-economic status. However, we lack general methods for estimating the causal effect of lexical choice on the perception of a specific sentence. While randomized controlled trials may provide good estimates, they do not scale to the potentially millions of comparisons necessary to consider all lexical choices. Instead, in this paper, we first offer two classes of methods to estimate the effect on perception of changing one word to another in a given sentence. The first class of algorithms builds upon quasi-experimental designs to estimate individual treatment effects from observational data. The second class treats treatment effect estimation as a classification problem. We conduct experiments with three data sources (Yelp, Twitter, and Airbnb), finding that the algorithmic estimates align well with those produced by randomized-control trials. Additionally, we find that it is possible to transfer treatment effect classifiers across domains and still maintain high accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Deceptiveness of internet data for disease surveillance

Quantifying how many people are or will be sick, and where, is a critical ingredient in reducing the burden of disease because it helps the public health system plan and implement effective outbreak response. This process of disease surveillance is currently based on data gathering using clinical and laboratory methods; this distributed human contact and resulting bureaucratic data aggregation yield expensive procedures that lag real time by weeks or months. The promise of new surveillance approaches using internet data, such as web event logs or social media messages, is to achieve the same goal but faster and cheaper. However, prior work in this area lacks a rigorous model of information flow, making it difficult to assess the reliability of both specific approaches and the body of work as a whole. We model disease surveillance as a Shannon communication. This new framework lets any two disease surveillance approaches be compared using a unified vocabulary and conceptual model. Using it, we describe and compare the deficiencies suffered by traditional and internet-based surveillance, introduce a new risk metric called deceptiveness, and offer mitigations for some of these deficiencies. This framework also makes the rich tools of information theory applicable to disease surveillance. This better understanding will improve the decision-making of public health practitioners by helping to leverage internet-based surveillance in a way complementary to the strengths of traditional surveillance.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting the presence and intensity of hostility on Instagram using linguistic and social features

Online antisocial behavior, such as cyberbullying, harassment, and trolling, is a widespread problem that threatens free discussion and has negative physical and mental health consequences for victims and communities. While prior work has proposed automated methods to identify hostile comments in online discussions, these methods work retrospectively on comments that have already been posted, making it difficult to intervene before an interaction escalates. In this paper we instead consider the problem of forecasting future hostilities in online discussions, which we decompose into two tasks: (1) given an initial sequence of non-hostile comments in a discussion, predict whether some future comment will contain hostility; and (2) given the first hostile comment in a discussion, predict whether this will lead to an escalation of hostility in subsequent comments. Thus, we aim to forecast both the presence and intensity of hostile comments based on linguistic and social features from earlier comments. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a corpus of over 30K annotated Instagram comments from over 1,100 posts. Our approach is able to predict the appearance of a hostile comment on an Instagram post ten or more hours in the future with an AUC of .82 (task 1), and can furthermore distinguish between high and low levels of future hostility with an AUC of .91 (task 2).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Controlling for Unobserved Confounds in Classification Using Correlational Constraints

As statistical classifiers become integrated into real-world applications, it is important to consider not only their accuracy but also their robustness to changes in the data distribution. In this paper, we consider the case where there is an unobserved confounding variable $z$ that influences both the features $\mathbf{x}$ and the class variable $y$. When the influence of $z$ changes from training to testing data, we find that the classifier accuracy can degrade rapidly. In our approach, we assume that we can predict the value of $z$ at training time with some error. The prediction for $z$ is then fed to Pearl's back-door adjustment to build our model. Because of the attenuation bias caused by measurement error in $z$, standard approaches to controlling for $z$ are ineffective. In response, we propose a method to properly control for the influence of $z$ by first estimating its relationship with the class variable $y$, then updating predictions for $z$ to match that estimated relationship. By adjusting the influence of $z$, we show that we can build a model that exceeds competing baselines on accuracy as well as on robustness over a range of confounding relationships.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

Co-training for Demographic Classification Using Deep Learning from Label Proportions

Deep learning algorithms have recently produced state-of-the-art accuracy in many classification tasks, but this success is typically dependent on access to many annotated training examples. For domains without such data, an attractive alternative is to train models with light, or distant supervision. In this paper, we introduce a deep neural network for the Learning from Label Proportion (LLP) setting, in which the training data consist of bags of unlabeled instances with associated label distributions for each bag. We introduce a new regularization layer, Batch Averager, that can be appended to the last layer of any deep neural network to convert it from supervised learning to LLP. This layer can be implemented readily with existing deep learning packages. To further support domains in which the data consist of two conditionally independent feature views (e.g. image and text), we propose a co-training algorithm that iteratively generates pseudo bags and refits the deep LLP model to improve classification accuracy. We demonstrate our models on demographic attribute classification (gender and race/ethnicity), which has many applications in social media analysis, public health, and marketing. We conduct experiments to predict demographics of Twitter users based on their tweets and profile image, without requiring any user-level annotations for training. We find that the deep LLP approach outperforms baselines for both text and image features separately. Additionally, we find that co-training algorithm improves image and text classification by 4% and 8% absolute F1, respectively. Finally, an ensemble of text and image classifiers further improves the absolute F1 measure by 4% on average.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2017

Mining the Demographics of Political Sentiment from Twitter Using Learning from Label Proportions

Opinion mining and demographic attribute inference have many applications in social science. In this paper, we propose models to infer daily joint probabilities of multiple latent attributes from Twitter data, such as political sentiment and demographic attributes. Since it is costly and time-consuming to annotate data for traditional supervised classification, we instead propose scalable Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) models for demographic and opinion inference using U.S. Census, national and state political polls, and Cook partisan voting index as population level data. In LLP classification settings, the training data is divided into a set of unlabeled bags, where only the label distribution in of each bag is known, removing the requirement of instance-level annotations. Our proposed LLP model, Weighted Label Regularization (WLR), provides a scalable generalization of prior work on label regularization to support weights for samples inside bags, which is applicable in this setting where bags are arranged hierarchically (e.g., county-level bags are nested inside of state-level bags). We apply our model to Twitter data collected in the year leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, producing estimates of the relationships among political sentiment and demographics over time and place. We find that our approach closely tracks traditional polling data stratified by demographic category, resulting in error reductions of 28-44% over baseline approaches. We also provide descriptive evaluations showing how the model may be used to estimate interactions among many variables and to identify linguistic temporal variation, capabilities which are typically not feasible using traditional polling methods.

cs.SI↗