arXiv subjects

Ashton Anderson

Publications and source records attributed to Ashton Anderson.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Reddit in the Time of COVID

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, much of life moved online. Platforms of all types reported surges of activity, and people remarked on the various important functions that online platforms suddenly fulfilled. However, researchers lack a rigorous understanding of the pandemic's impacts on social platforms, and whether they were temporary or long-lasting. We present a conceptual framework for studying the large-scale evolution of social platforms and apply it to the study of Reddit's history, with a particular focus on the COVID-19 pandemic. We study platform evolution through two key dimensions: structure vs. content and macro- vs. micro-level analysis. Structural signals help us quantify how much behavior changed, while content analysis clarifies exactly how it changed. Applying these at the macro-level illuminates platform-wide changes, while at the micro-level we study impacts on individual users. We illustrate the value of this approach by showing the extraordinary and ordinary changes Reddit went through during the pandemic. First, we show that typically when rapid growth occurs, it is driven by a few concentrated communities and within a narrow slice of language use. However, Reddit's growth throughout COVID-19 was spread across disparate communities and languages. Second, all groups were equally affected in their change of interest, but veteran users tended to invoke COVID-related language more than newer users. Third, the new wave of users that arrived following COVID-19 was fundamentally different from previous cohorts of new users in terms of interests, activity, and likelihood of staying active on the platform. These findings provide a more rigorous understanding of how an online platform changed during the global pandemic.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Anticipated versus Actual Effects of Platform Design Change: A Case Study of Twitter's Character Limit

The design of online platforms is both critically important and challenging, as any changes may lead to unintended consequences, and it can be hard to predict how users will react. Here we conduct a case study of a particularly important real-world platform design change: Twitter's decision to double the character limit from 140 to 280 characters to soothe users' need to ''cram'' or ''squeeze'' their tweets, informed by modeling of historical user behavior. In our analysis, we contrast Twitter's anticipated pre-intervention predictions about user behavior with actual post-intervention user behavior: Did the platform design change lead to the intended user behavior shifts, or did a gap between anticipated and actual behavior emerge? Did different user groups react differently? We find that even though users do not ''cram'' as much under 280 characters as they used to under 140 characters, emergent ``cramming'' at the new limit seems to not have been taken into account when designing the platform change. Furthermore, investigating textual features, we find that, although post-intervention ''crammed'' tweets are longer, their syntactic and semantic characteristics remain similar and indicative of ''squeezing''. Applying the same approach as Twitter policy-makers, we create updated counterfactual estimates and find that the character limit would need to be increased further to reduce cramming that re-emerged at the new limit. We contribute to the rich literature studying online user behavior with an empirical study that reveals a dynamic interaction between platform design and user behavior, with immediate policy and practical implications for the design of socio-technical systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Detecting Individual Decision-Making Style: Exploring Behavioral Stylometry in Chess

The advent of machine learning models that surpass human decision-making ability in complex domains has initiated a movement towards building AI systems that interact with humans. Many building blocks are essential for this activity, with a central one being the algorithmic characterization of human behavior. While much of the existing work focuses on aggregate human behavior, an important long-range goal is to develop behavioral models that specialize to individual people and can differentiate among them. To formalize this process, we study the problem of behavioral stylometry, in which the task is to identify a decision-maker from their decisions alone. We present a transformer-based approach to behavioral stylometry in the context of chess, where one attempts to identify the player who played a set of games. Our method operates in a few-shot classification framework, and can correctly identify a player from among thousands of candidate players with 98% accuracy given only 100 labeled games. Even when trained on amateur play, our method generalises to out-of-distribution samples of Grandmaster players, despite the dramatic differences between amateur and world-class players. Finally, we consider more broadly what our resulting embeddings reveal about human style in chess, as well as the potential ethical implications of powerful methods for identifying individuals from behavioral data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Mimetic Models: Ethical Implications of AI that Acts Like You

An emerging theme in artificial intelligence research is the creation of models to simulate the decisions and behavior of specific people, in domains including game-playing, text generation, and artistic expression. These models go beyond earlier approaches in the way they are tailored to individuals, and the way they are designed for interaction rather than simply the reproduction of fixed, pre-computed behaviors. We refer to these as mimetic models, and in this paper we develop a framework for characterizing the ethical and social issues raised by their growing availability. Our framework includes a number of distinct scenarios for the use of such models, and considers the impacts on a range of different participants, including the target being modeled, the operator who deploys the model, and the entities that interact with it.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Learning Models of Individual Behavior in Chess

AI systems that can capture human-like behavior are becoming increasingly useful in situations where humans may want to learn from these systems, collaborate with them, or engage with them as partners for an extended duration. In order to develop human-oriented AI systems, the problem of predicting human actions -- as opposed to predicting optimal actions -- has received considerable attention. Existing work has focused on capturing human behavior in an aggregate sense, which potentially limits the benefit any particular individual could gain from interaction with these systems. We extend this line of work by developing highly accurate predictive models of individual human behavior in chess. Chess is a rich domain for exploring human-AI interaction because it combines a unique set of properties: AI systems achieved superhuman performance many years ago, and yet humans still interact with them closely, both as opponents and as preparation tools, and there is an enormous corpus of recorded data on individual player games. Starting with Maia, an open-source version of AlphaZero trained on a population of human players, we demonstrate that we can significantly improve prediction accuracy of a particular player's moves by applying a series of fine-tuning methods. Furthermore, our personalized models can be used to perform stylometry -- predicting who made a given set of moves -- indicating that they capture human decision-making at an individual level. Our work demonstrates a way to bring AI systems into better alignment with the behavior of individual people, which could lead to large improvements in human-AI interaction.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Quantifying social organization and political polarization in online platforms

Optimism about the Internet's potential to bring the world together has been tempered by concerns about its role in inflaming the 'culture wars'. Via mass selection into like-minded groups, online society may be becoming more fragmented and polarized, particularly with respect to partisan differences. However, our ability to measure the social makeup of online communities, and in turn understand the social organization of online platforms, is limited by the pseudonymous, unstructured, and large-scale nature of digital discussion. We develop a neural embedding methodology to quantify the positioning of online communities along social dimensions by leveraging large-scale patterns of aggregate behaviour. Applying our methodology to 5.1B Reddit comments made in 10K communities over 14 years, we measure how the macroscale community structure is organized with respect to age, gender, and U.S. political partisanship. Examining political content, we find Reddit underwent a significant polarization event around the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and remained highly polarized for years afterward. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, individual-level polarization is rare; the system-level shift in 2016 was disproportionately driven by the arrival of new and newly political users. Political polarization on Reddit is unrelated to previous activity on the platform, and is instead temporally aligned with external events. We also observe a stark ideological asymmetry, with the sharp increase in 2016 being entirely attributable to changes in right-wing activity. Our methodology is broadly applicable to the study of online interaction, and our findings have implications for the design of online platforms, understanding the social contexts of online behaviour, and quantifying the dynamics and mechanisms of online polarization.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Adoption of Twitter's New Length Limit: Is 280 the New 140?

In November 2017, Twitter doubled the maximum allowed tweet length from 140 to 280 characters, a drastic switch on one of the world's most influential social media platforms. In the first long-term study of how the new length limit was adopted by Twitter users, we ask: Does the effect of the new length limit resemble that of the old one? Or did the doubling of the limit fundamentally change how Twitter is shaped by the limited length of posted content? By analyzing Twitter's publicly available 1% sample over a period of around 3 years, we find that, when the length limit was raised from 140 to 280 characters, the prevalence of tweets around 140 characters dropped immediately, while the prevalence of tweets around 280 characters rose steadily for about 6 months. Despite this rise, tweets approaching the length limit have been far less frequent after than before the switch. We find widely different adoption rates across languages and client-device types. The prevalence of tweets around 140 characters before the switch in a given language is strongly correlated with the prevalence of tweets around 280 characters after the switch in the same language, and very long tweets are vastly more popular on Web clients than on mobile clients. Moreover, tweets of around 280 characters after the switch are syntactically and semantically similar to tweets of around 140 characters before the switch, manifesting patterns of message squeezing in both cases. Taken together, these findings suggest that the new 280-character limit constitutes a new, less intrusive version of the old 140-character limit. The length limit remains an important factor that should be considered in all studies using Twitter data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Aligning Superhuman AI with Human Behavior: Chess as a Model System

As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly intelligent---in some cases, achieving superhuman performance---there is growing potential for humans to learn from and collaborate with algorithms. However, the ways in which AI systems approach problems are often different from the ways people do, and thus may be uninterpretable and hard to learn from. A crucial step in bridging this gap between human and artificial intelligence is modeling the granular actions that constitute human behavior, rather than simply matching aggregate human performance. We pursue this goal in a model system with a long history in artificial intelligence: chess. The aggregate performance of a chess player unfolds as they make decisions over the course of a game. The hundreds of millions of games played online by players at every skill level form a rich source of data in which these decisions, and their exact context, are recorded in minute detail. Applying existing chess engines to this data, including an open-source implementation of AlphaZero, we find that they do not predict human moves well. We develop and introduce Maia, a customized version of Alpha-Zero trained on human chess games, that predicts human moves at a much higher accuracy than existing engines, and can achieve maximum accuracy when predicting decisions made by players at a specific skill level in a tuneable way. For a dual task of predicting whether a human will make a large mistake on the next move, we develop a deep neural network that significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Taken together, our results suggest that there is substantial promise in designing artificial intelligence systems with human collaboration in mind by first accurately modeling granular human decision-making.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

De-anonymization of authors through arXiv submissions during double-blind review

In this paper, we investigate the effects of releasing arXiv preprints of papers that are undergoing a double-blind review process. In particular, we ask the following research question: What is the relation between de-anonymization of authors through arXiv preprints and acceptance of a research paper at a (nominally) double-blind venue? Under two conditions: papers that are released on arXiv before the review phase and papers that are not, we examine the correlation between the reputation of their authors with the review scores and acceptance decisions. By analyzing a dataset of ICLR 2020 and ICLR 2019 submissions (n=5050), we find statistically significant evidence of positive correlation between percentage acceptance and papers with high reputation released on arXiv. In order to understand this observed association better, we perform additional analyses based on self-specified confidence scores of reviewers and observe that less confident reviewers are more likely to assign high review scores to papers with well known authors and low review scores to papers with less known authors, where reputation is quantified in terms of number of Google Scholar citations. We emphasize upfront that our results are purely correlational and we neither can nor intend to make any causal claims. A blog post accompanying the paper and our scraping code will be linked in the project website https://sites.google.com/view/deanon-arxiv/home

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

From Welcome New Gabbers to the Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting: The Evolution of Gab

Gab, an online social media platform with very little content moderation, has recently come to prominence as an alt-right community and a haven for hate speech. We document the evolution of Gab since its inception until a Gab user carried out the most deadly attack on the Jewish community in US history. We investigate Gab language use, study how topics evolved over time, and find that the shooters' posts were among the most consistently anti-Semitic on Gab, but that hundreds of other users were even more extreme.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Causal Effects of Brevity on Style and Success in Social Media

In online communities, where billions of people strive to propagate their messages, understanding how wording affects success is of primary importance. In this work, we are interested in one particularly salient aspect of wording: brevity. What is the causal effect of brevity on message success? What are the linguistic traits of brevity? When is brevity beneficial, and when is it not? Whereas most prior work has studied the effect of wording on style and success in observational setups, we conduct a controlled experiment, in which crowd workers shorten social media posts to prescribed target lengths and other crowd workers subsequently rate the original and shortened versions. This allows us to isolate the causal effect of brevity on the success of a message. We find that concise messages are on average more successful than the original messages up to a length reduction of 30-40%. The optimal reduction is on average between 10% and 20%. The observed effect is robust across different subpopulations of raters and is the strongest for raters who visit social media on a daily basis. Finally, we discover unique linguistic and content traits of brevity and correlate them with the measured probability of success in order to distinguish effective from ineffective shortening strategies. Overall, our findings are important for developing a better understanding of the effect of brevity on the success of messages in online social media.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Understanding the Origins of Bias in Word Embeddings

The power of machine learning systems not only promises great technical progress, but risks societal harm. As a recent example, researchers have shown that popular word embedding algorithms exhibit stereotypical biases, such as gender bias. The widespread use of these algorithms in machine learning systems, from automated translation services to curriculum vitae scanners, can amplify stereotypes in important contexts. Although methods have been developed to measure these biases and alter word embeddings to mitigate their biased representations, there is a lack of understanding in how word embedding bias depends on the training data. In this work, we develop a technique for understanding the origins of bias in word embeddings. Given a word embedding trained on a corpus, our method identifies how perturbing the corpus will affect the bias of the resulting embedding. This can be used to trace the origins of word embedding bias back to the original training documents. Using our method, one can investigate trends in the bias of the underlying corpus and identify subsets of documents whose removal would most reduce bias. We demonstrate our techniques on both a New York Times and Wikipedia corpus and find that our influence function-based approximations are very accurate.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Thanks for Stopping By: A Study of "Thanks" Usage on Wikimedia

The Thanks feature on Wikipedia, also known as "Thanks", is a tool with which editors can quickly and easily send one other positive feedback. The aim of this project is to better understand this feature: its scope, the characteristics of a typical "Thanks" interaction, and the effects of receiving a thank on individual editors. We study the motivational impacts of "Thanks" because maintaining editor engagement is a central problem for crowdsourced repositories of knowledge such as Wikimedia. Our main findings are that most editors have not been exposed to the Thanks feature (meaning they have never given nor received a thank), thanks are typically sent upwards (from less experienced to more experienced editors), and receiving a thank is correlated with having high levels of editor engagement. Though the prevalence of "Thanks" usage varies by editor experience, the impact of receiving a thank seems mostly consistent for all users. We empirically demonstrate that receiving a thank has a strong positive effect on short-term editor activity across the board and provide preliminary evidence that thanks could compound to have long-term effects as well.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

How Constraints Affect Content: The Case of Twitter's Switch from 140 to 280 Characters

It is often said that constraints affect creative production, both in terms of form and quality. Online social media platforms frequently impose constraints on the content that users can produce, limiting the range of possible contributions. Do these restrictions tend to push creators towards producing more or less successful content? How do creators adapt their contributions to fit the limits imposed by social media platforms? To answer these questions, we conduct an observational study of a recent event: on November 7, 2017, Twitter changed the maximum allowable length of a tweet from 140 to 280 characters, thereby significantly altering its signature constraint. In the first study of this switch, we compare tweets with nearly or exactly 140 characters before the change to tweets of the same length posted after the change. This setup enables us to characterize how users alter their tweets to fit the constraint and how this affects their tweets' success. We find that in response to a length constraint, users write more tersely, use more abbreviations and contracted forms, and use fewer definite articles. Also, although in general tweet success increases with length, we find initial evidence that tweets made to fit the 140-character constraint tend to be more successful than similar-length tweets written when the constraint was removed, suggesting that the length constraint improved tweet quality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Mapping the Invocation Structure of Online Political Interaction

The surge in political information, discourse, and interaction has been one of the most important developments in social media over the past several years. There is rich structure in the interaction among different viewpoints on the ideological spectrum. However, we still have only a limited analytical vocabulary for expressing the ways in which these viewpoints interact. In this paper, we develop network-based methods that operate on the ways in which users share content; we construct \emph{invocation graphs} on Web domains showing the extent to which pages from one domain are invoked by users to reply to posts containing pages from other domains. When we locate the domains on a political spectrum induced from the data, we obtain an embedded graph showing how these interaction links span different distances on the spectrum. The structure of this embedded network, and its evolution over time, helps us derive macro-level insights about how political interaction unfolded through 2016, leading up to the US Presidential election. In particular, we find that the domains invoked in replies spanned increasing distances on the spectrum over the months approaching the election, and that there was clear asymmetry between the left-to-right and right-to-left patterns of linkage.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Auditing Search Engines for Differential Satisfaction Across Demographics

Many online services, such as search engines, social media platforms, and digital marketplaces, are advertised as being available to any user, regardless of their age, gender, or other demographic factors. However, there are growing concerns that these services may systematically underserve some groups of users. In this paper, we present a framework for internally auditing such services for differences in user satisfaction across demographic groups, using search engines as a case study. We first explain the pitfalls of naïvely comparing the behavioral metrics that are commonly used to evaluate search engines. We then propose three methods for measuring latent differences in user satisfaction from observed differences in evaluation metrics. To develop these methods, we drew on ideas from the causal inference literature and the multilevel modeling literature. Our framework is broadly applicable to other online services, and provides general insight into interpreting their evaluation metrics.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2016

Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Exploring limits to prediction in complex social systems

How predictable is success in complex social systems? In spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that exploit online social and information network data, this question remains unanswered, in part because it has not been adequately specified. In this paper we attempt to clarify the question by presenting a simple stylized model of success that attributes prediction error to one of two generic sources: insufficiency of available data and/or models on the one hand; and inherent unpredictability of complex social systems on the other. We then use this model to motivate an illustrative empirical study of information cascade size prediction on Twitter. Despite an unprecedented volume of information about users, content, and past performance, our best performing models can explain less than half of the variance in cascade sizes. In turn, this result suggests that even with unlimited data predictive performance would be bounded well below deterministic accuracy. Finally, we explore this potential bound theoretically using simulations of a diffusion process on a random scale free network similar to Twitter. We show that although higher predictive power is possible in theory, such performance requires a homogeneous system and perfect ex-ante knowledge of it: even a small degree of uncertainty in estimating product quality or slight variation in quality across products leads to substantially more restrictive bounds on predictability. We conclude that realistic bounds on predictive accuracy are not dissimilar from those we have obtained empirically, and that such bounds for other complex social systems for which data is more difficult to obtain are likely even lower.

cs.SI↗