arXiv subjects

Astrid M. Veronig

Publications and source records attributed to Astrid M. Veronig.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Magnetic Flux and Magnetic Non-potentiality of Active Regions in Eruptive and Confined Solar Flares

With the aim of understanding how the magnetic properties of active regions (ARs) control the eruptive character of solar flares, we analyze 719 flares of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) class $\geq$C5.0 during 2010$-$2019. We carry out the first statistical study that investigates the flare-coronal mass ejections (CMEs) association rate as function of the flare intensity and the AR characteristics that produces the flare, in terms of its total unsigned magnetic flux ($Φ$$_{AR}$). Our results show that the slope of the flare-CME association rate with flare intensity reveals a steep monotonic decrease with $Φ$$_{AR}$. This means that flares of the same GOES class but originating from an AR of larger $Φ$$_{AR}$, are much more likely confined. Based on an AR flux as high as 1.0$\times$$10^{24}$ Mx for solar-type stars, we estimate that the CME association rate in X100-class ``superflares" is no more than 50\%. For a sample of 132 flares $\geq$M2.0 class, we measure three non-potential parameters including the length of steep gradient polarity inversion line (L$_{SGPIL}$), the total photospheric free magnetic energy (E$_{free}$) and the area with large shear angle (A$_Ψ$). We find that confined flares tend to have larger values of L$_{SGPIL}$, E$_{free}$ and A$_Ψ$ compared to eruptive flares. Each non-potential parameter shows a moderate positive correlation with $Φ$$_{AR}$. Our results imply that $Φ$$_{AR}$ is a decisive quantity describing the eruptive character of a flare, as it provides a global parameter relating to the strength of the background field confinement.

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arXiv2021

STIX X-ray microflare observations during the Solar Orbiter commissioning phase

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is the HXR instrument onboard Solar Orbiter designed to observe solar flares over a broad range of flare sizes, between 4-150 keV. We report the first STIX observations of microflares recorded during the instrument commissioning phase in order to investigate the STIX performance at its detection limit. This first result paper focuses on the temporal and spectral evolution of STIX microflares occuring in the AR12765 in June 2020, and compares the STIX measurements with GOES/XRS, SDO/AIA, and Hinode/XRT. For the observed microflares of the GOES A and B class, the STIX peak time at lowest energies is located in the impulsive phase of the flares, well before the GOES peak time. Such a behavior can either be explained by the higher sensitivity of STIX to higher temperatures compared to GOES, or due to the existence of a nonthermal component reaching down to low energies. The interpretation is inconclusive due to limited counting statistics for all but the largest flare in our sample. For this largest flare, the low-energy peak time is clearly due to thermal emission, and the nonthermal component seen at higher energies occurs even earlier. This suggests that the classic thermal explanation might also be favored for the majority of the smaller flares. In combination with EUV and SXR observations, STIX corroborates earlier findings that an isothermal assumption is of limited validity. Future diagnostic efforts should focus on multi-wavelength studies to derive differential emission measure distributions over a wide range of temperatures to accurately describe the energetics of solar flares. Commissioning observations confirm that STIX is working as designed. As a rule of thumb, STIX detects flares as small as the GOES A class. For flares above the GOES B class, detailed spectral and imaging analyses can be performed.

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arXiv2021

Hemispheric sunspot numbers 1874--2020

We create a continuous series of daily and monthly hemispheric sunspot numbers (HSNs) from 1874 to 2020, which will be continuously expanded in the future with the HSNs provided by SILSO. Based on the available daily measurements of hemispheric sunspot areas from 1874 to 2016 from Greenwich Royal Observatory and NOAA, we derive the relative fractions of the northern and southern activity. These fractions are applied to the international sunspot number (ISN) to derive the HSNs. This method and obtained data are validated against published HSNs for the period 1945--2020. We provide a continuous data series and catalogue of daily, monthly mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean HSNs for the time range 1874--2020 that are consistent with the newly calibrated ISN. Validation of the reconstructed HSNs against the direct data available since 1945 reveals a high level of consistency, with a correlation of r=0.94 (0.97) for the daily (monthly) data. The cumulative hemispheric asymmetries for cycles 12-24 give a mean value of 16%, with no obvious pattern in north-south predominance over the cycle evolution. The strongest asymmetry occurs for cycle no. 19, in which the northern hemisphere shows a cumulated predominance of 42%. The phase shift between the peaks of solar activity in the two hemispheres may be up to 28 months, with a mean absolute value of 16.4 months. The phase shifts reveal an overall asymmetry of the northern hemisphere reaching its cycle maximum earlier (in 10 out of 13 cases). Relating the ISN and HSN peak growth rates during the cycle rise phase with the cycle amplitude reveals higher correlations when considering the two hemispheres individually, with r = 0.9. Our findings demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be improved by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the hemispheric sunspot numbers.

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arXiv2021

Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter

The solar radio flux at F10.7 cm and F30 cm is required by most models characterizing the state of the Earth's upper atmosphere, such as the thermosphere and ionosphere to specify satellite orbits, re-entry services, collision avoidance maneuvers and modeling of space debris evolution. We develop a method called RESONANCE ("Radio Emissions from the Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer-aided Estimator") for the prediction of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean F10.7 and F30 indices 1-24 months ahead. The prediction algorithm includes three steps. First, we apply a 13-month optimized running mean technique to effectively reduce the noise in the radio flux data. Second, we provide initial predictions of the F10.7 and F30 indices using the McNish-Lincoln method. Finally, we improve these initial predictions by developing an adaptive Kalman filter with the error statistics identification. The root-mean-square-error of predictions with lead times from 1 to 24 months is 5-27 sfu for the F10.7 and 3-16 sfu for F30 index, which statistically outperforms current algorithms in use. The proposed approach based on Kalman filter is universal and can be applied to improve the initial predictions of a process under study provided by any other forecasting method. Furthermore, we present a systematic evaluation of re-entry forecast as an application to test the performance of F10.7 predictions on past ESA re-entry campaigns for payloads, rocket bodies, and space debris that re-entered from June 2006 to June 2019. The test results demonstrate that the predictions obtained by RESONANCE in general also lead to improvements in the forecasts of re-entry epochs.

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arXiv2021

Statistical Approach on Differential EmissionMeasure of Coronal Holes using the CATCH Catalog

Coronal holes are large-scale structures in the solar atmosphere that feature a reduced temperature and density in comparison to the surrounding quiet Sun and are usually associated with open magnetic fields. We perform a differential emission measure analysis on the 707 non-polar coronal holes collected in the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) catalog to derive and statistically analyze their plasma properties (i.e. temperature, electron density, and emission measure). We use intensity filtergrams of the six coronal EUV filters from the \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} onboard of the \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory}, which cover a temperature range from $ \approx 10^{5.5}$ to $10^{7.5}$\,K. Correcting the data for stray and scattered light, we find that all coronal holes have very similar plasma properties with an average temperature of $0.94 \pm 0.18$ MK, a mean electron density of $(2.4 \pm 0.7) \times 10^{8}$\,cm$^{-3}$, and a mean emission measure of $(2.8 \pm 1.6) \times 10^{26}$\,cm$^{-5}$. The temperature distribution within the coronal hole was found to be largely uniform, whereas the electron density shows a $40\,\%$ linear decrease from the boundary towards the inside of the coronal hole. At distances greater than \SI{20}{\arcsecond} ($\approx 15$\,Mm) from the nearest coronal hole boundary, the density also becomes statistically uniform. The coronal hole temperature may show a weak solar cycle dependency, but no statistically significant correlation of plasma properties to solar cycle variations could be determined throughout the observed time period between 2010 and 2019.

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arXiv2021

SunCET: A compact EUV instrument to fill a critical observational gap

The Sun Coronal Ejection Tracker (SunCET) is an extreme ultraviolet imager and spectrograph instrument concept for tracking coronal mass ejections through the region where they experience the majority of their acceleration: the difficult-to-observe middle corona. It contains a wide field of view (0-4~\Rs) imager and a 1~Å spectral-resolution-irradiance spectrograph spanning 170-340~Å. It leverages new detector technology to read out different areas of the detector with different integration times, resulting in what we call "simultaneous high dynamic range", as opposed to the traditional high dynamic range camera technique of subsequent full-frame images that are then combined in post-processing. This allows us to image the bright solar disk with short integration time, the middle corona with a long integration time, and the spectra with their own, independent integration time. Thus, SunCET does not require the use of an opaque or filtered occulter. SunCET is also compact -- $\sim$15 $\times$ 15 $\times$ 10~cm in volume -- making it an ideal instrument for a CubeSat or a small, complementary addition to a larger mission. Indeed, SunCET is presently in a NASA-funded, competitive Phase A as a CubeSat and has also been proposed to NASA as an instrument onboard a 184 kg Mission of Opportunity.

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arXiv2020

Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of Magnetic Null-point Reconnections and Coronal dimmings during the X2.1 flare in NOAA AR 11283

The magnetohydrodynamics of active region NOAA 11283 is simulated using an initial non-force-free magnetic field extrapolated from its photospheric vector magnetogram. We focus on the magnetic reconnections at a magnetic null point that participated in the X2.1 flare on 2011 September 6 around 22:21 UT (SOL2011-09-06T22:21X2.1) followed by the appearance of circular flare ribbons and coronal dimmings. The initial magnetic field from extrapolation displays a three-dimensional (3D) null topology overlying a sheared arcade. Prior to the flare, magnetic loops rise due to the initial Lorentz force, and reconnect at the 3D null, leading to expansion and loss of confined plasma that produce the observed pre-flare coronal dimmings. Further, the simulated dynamics documents the transfer of twist from the arcade to the overlying loops through reconnections, developing a flux rope. The non-parallel field lines comprising the rope and lower-lying arcades form an X-type geometry. Importantly, the simultaneous reconnections at the 3D null and the X-type geometry can explain the observed circular and parallel flare ribbons. Reconnections at the 3D null transform closed inner spine field lines into open field lines of the outer spine. The footpoints of these open field lines correspond to a ring-shaped coronal dimming region, tracing the dome. Further, the flux rope bifurcates because of these reconnections which also results in the generation of open magnetic field lines. The plasma loss along the open field lines can potentially explain the observed coronal dimming.

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arXiv2020

CME Acceleration as a Probe of the Coronal Magnetic Field

By 2050, we expect that CME models will accurately describe, and ideally predict, observed solar eruptions and the propagation of the CMEs through the corona. We describe some of the present known unknowns in observations and models that would need to be addressed in order to reach this goal. We also describe how we might prepare for some of the unknown unknowns that will surely become challenges.

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arXiv2020

Magnetic Flux of Active Regions Determining the Eruptive Character of Large Solar Flares

We establish the largest eruptive/confined flare database to date and analyze 322 flares of \emph{GOES} class M1.0 and larger that occurred during 2010$-$2019, i.e., almost spanning the entire solar cycle 24. We find that the total unsigned magnetic flux ($Φ$$_{AR}$) of active regions (ARs) is a key parameter in governing the eruptive character of large flares, with the proportion of eruptive flares exhibiting a strong anti-correlation with $Φ$$_{AR}$. This means that an AR containing a large magnetic flux has a lower probability for the large flares it produces to be associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME). This finding is supported by the high positive correlation we obtained between the critical decay index height and $Φ$$_{AR}$, implying that ARs with a larger $Φ$$_{AR}$ have a stronger magnetic confinement. Moreover, the confined flares originating from ARs larger than 1.0$\times$$10^{23}$ Mx have several characteristics in common: stable filament, slipping magnetic reconnection and strongly sheared post-flare loops. Our findings reveal new relations between the magnetic flux of ARs and the occurrence of CMEs in association with large flares. These relations obtained here provide quantitative criteria for forecasting CMEs and adverse space weather, and have also important implications for "superflares" on solar-type stars and stellar CMEs. The link of database is https://doi.org/10.12149/101030.

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arXiv2020

Eruptive-Impulsive Homologous M-class Flares Associated with Double-Decker Flux Rope Configuration in Mini-Sigmoid of NOAA 12673

We present a multiwavelength analysis of two homologous, short lived, impulsive flares of GOES class M1.4 and M7.3, that occurred from a very localized mini-sigmoid region within the active region NOAA 12673 on 2017 September 7. Both flares were associated with initial jet-like plasma ejection which for a brief amount of time moved toward east in a collimated manner before drastically changing direction toward southwest. Non-linear force-free field extrapolation reveals the presence of a compact double-decker flux rope configuration in the mini-sigmoid region prior to the flares. A set of open field lines originating near the active region which were most likely responsible for the anomalous dynamics of the erupted plasma, gave the earliest indication of an emerging coronal hole near the active region. The horizontal field distribution suggests a rapid decay of the field above the active region, implying high proneness of the flux rope system toward eruption. In view of the low coronal double-decker flux ropes and compact extreme ultra-violet (EUV) brightening beneath the filament along with associated photospheric magnetic field changes, our analysis supports the combination of initial tether-cutting reconnection and subsequent torus instability for driving the eruption.

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arXiv2020

On the Dependency between the Peak Velocity of High-speed Solar Wind Streams near Earth and the Area of Their Solar Source Coronal Holes

The relationship between the peak velocities of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth and the areas of their solar source regions, i.e., coronal holes, has been known since the 1970s, but it is still physically not well understood. We perform 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code to show that this empirical relationship forms during the propagation phase of high-speed streams from the Sun to Earth. For this purpose, we neglect the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, and project the areas of coronal holes to a sphere at 0.1 au. We then vary only the areas and latitudes of the coronal holes. The velocity, temperature, and density in the cross section of the corresponding highspeed streams at 0.1 au are set to constant, homogeneous values. Finally, we propagate the associated high-speed streams through the inner heliosphere using the EUHFORIA code. The simulated high-speed stream peak velocities at Earth reveal a linear dependence on the area of their source coronal holes. The slopes of the relationship decrease with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes, and the peak velocities saturate at a value of about 730 km/s, similar to the observations. These findings imply that the empirical relationship between the coronal hole areas and high-speed stream peak velocities does not describe the acceleration phase of high-speed streams, but is a result of the high-speed stream propagation from the Sun to Earth.

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arXiv2020

Solar Flare-CME Coupling Throughout Two Acceleration Phases of a Fast CME

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $γ$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed.

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arXiv2020

HXR emission from an activated flux rope and subsequent evolution of an eruptive long duration solar flare

In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of the evolutionary phases of a major M6.6 long duration event (LDE) with special emphasize on its pre-flare phase. The event occurred in NOAA 12371 on 2015 June 22. A remarkable aspect of the event was an active pre-flare phase lasting for about an hour during which a hot EUV coronal channel was in build-up stage and displayed co-spatial hard X-ray (HXR) emission up to energies of 25 keV. As such, this is the first evidence of HXR coronal channel. The coronal magnetic field configuration based on NLFFF modeling clearly exhibited a magnetic flux rope (MFR) oriented along the polarity inversion line (PIL) and co-spatial with the coronal channel. We observed significant changes in the AR's photospheric magnetic field during an extended period of $\approx$42 hours in the form of rotation of sunspots, moving magnetic features, and flux cancellation along the PIL. Prior to the flare onset, the MFR underwent a slow rise phase ($\approx$14 km s$^{-1}$) for $\approx$12 min which we attribute to the faster build-up and activation of the MFR by tether-cutting reconnection occurring at multiple locations along the MFR itself. The sudden transition in the kinematic evolution of the MFR from the phase of slow to fast rise ($\approx$109 km s$^{-1}$ with acceleration $\approx$110 m s$^{-2}$) precisely divides the pre-flare and impulsive phase of the flare, which points toward the feedback process between the early dynamics of the eruption and the strength of the flare magnetic reconnection.

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arXiv2020

Coronal dimmings associated with coronal mass ejections on the solar limb

We present a statistical analysis of 43 coronal dimming events, associated with Earth-directed CMEs that occurred during the period of quasi-quadrature of the SDO and STEREO satellites. We studied coronal dimmings that were observed above the limb by STEREO/EUVI and compared their properties with the mass and speed of the associated CMEs. The unique position of satellites allowed us to compare our findings with the results from Dissauer et al. (2018b, 2019), who studied the same events observed against the solar disk by SDO/AIA. Such statistics is done for the first time and confirms the relation of coronal dimmings and CME parameters for the off-limb viewpoint. The observations of dimming regions from different lines-of-sight reveal a similar decrease in the total EUV intensity ($c=0.60\pm0.14$). We find that the (projected) dimming areas are typically larger for off-limb observations (mean value of $1.24\pm1.23\times10^{11}$ km$^2$ against $3.51\pm0.71\times10^{10}$ km$^2$ for on-disk), with a correlation of $c=0.63\pm0.10$. This systematic difference can be explained by the (weaker) contributions to the dimming regions higher up in the corona, that cannot be detected in the on-disk observations. The off-limb dimming areas and brightnesses show very strong correlations with the CME mass ($c=0.82\pm0.06$ and $c=0.75\pm0.08$), whereas the dimming area and brightness change rate correlate with the CME speed ($c\sim0.6$). Our findings suggest that coronal dimmings have the potential to provide early estimates of mass and speed of Earth-directed CMEs, relevant for space weather forecasts, for satellite locations both at L1 and L5.

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arXiv2020

A statistical study of long-term evolution of coronal hole properties as observed by SDO

The study of the evolution of coronal holes (CHs) is especially important in the context of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) emanating from them. Stream interaction regions may deliver large amount of energy into the Earths system, cause geomagnetic storms, and shape interplanetary space. By statistically analysing 16 long-living CHs observed by the SDO, we focus on coronal, morphological and underlying photospheric magnetic field characteristics as well as investigate the evolution of the associated HSSs. We use CATCH to extract and analyse CHs using observations taken by AIA and HMI. We derive changes in the CH properties and correlate them to the CH evolution. Further we analyse the properties of the HSS signatures near 1au from OMNI data by manually extracting the peak bulk velocity of the solar wind plasma. We find that the area evolution of CHs mostly shows a rough trend of growing to a maximum followed by a decay. No correlation of the area evolution to the evolution of the signed magnetic flux and signed magnetic flux density enclosed in the projected CH area was found. From this we conclude that the magnetic flux within the extracted CH boundaries is not the main cause for its area evolution. We derive CH area change rates (growth and decay) of 14.2 +/- 15.0 * 10^8 km^2/day showing a reasonable anti-correlation (cc =-0.48) to the solar activity, approximated by the sunspot number. The change rates of the signed mean magnetic flux density (27.3 +/- 32.2 mG/day) and the signed magnetic flux (30.3 +/- 31.5 * 10^18 Mx/day) were also found to be dependent on solar activity (cc =0.50 and cc =0.69 respectively) rather than on the individual CH evolutions. Further we find that the CH area-to-HSS peak velocity relation is valid for each CH over its evolution but revealing significant variations in the slopes of the regression lines.

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arXiv2020

Differential Emission Measure Plasma Diagnostics of a Long-Lived Coronal Hole

We use Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data to reconstruct the plasma properties from differential emission measure (DEM) analysis for a previously studied long-lived, low-latitude coronal hole (CH) over its lifetime of ten solar rotations. We initially obtain a non-isothermal DEM distribution with a dominant component centered around 0.9 MK and a secondary smaller component at 1.5 - 2.0 MK. We find that deconvolving the data with the instrument point spread function (PSF) to account for long-range scattered light reduces the secondary hot component. Using the 2012 Venus transit and a 2013 lunar eclipse to test the efficiency of this deconvolution, significant amounts of residual stray light are found for the occulted areas. Accounting for this stray light in the error budget of the different AIA filters further reduces the secondary hot emission, yielding CH DEM distributions that are close to isothermal with the main contribution centered around 0.9 MK. Based on these DEMs, we analyze the evolution of the emission measure (EM), density, and averaged temperature during the CH's lifetime. We find that once the CH is clearly observed in EUV images, the bulk of the CH plasma reveals a quite constant state, i.e. temperature and density reveal no major changes, whereas the total CH area and the photospheric magnetic fine structure inside the CH show a distinct evolutionary pattern. These findings suggest that CH plasma properties are mostly "set" at the CH formation or/and that all CHs have similar plasma properties.

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arXiv2019

CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geo-effectiveness: The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in Early September 2017

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its Bz until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the Bz amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum Bz amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

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arXiv2019

A Hot Cusp-Shaped Confined Solar Flare

We analyze a confined flare that developed a hot cusp-like structure high in the corona (H ~ 66 Mm). A growing cusp-shaped flare arcade is a typical feature in the standard model of eruptive flares, caused by magnetic reconnection at progressively larger coronal heights. In contrast, we observe a static hot cusp during a confined flare. Despite an initial vertical temperature distribution similar to that in eruptive flares, we observe a distinctly different evolution during the late (decay) phase, in the form of prolonged hot emission. The distinct cusp shape, rooted at locations of non-thermal precursor activity, was likely caused by a magnetic field arcade that kinked near the top. Our observations indicate that the prolonged heating was a result of slow local reconnection and an increased thermal pressure near the kinked apexes due to continuous plasma upflows.

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