arXiv subjects

Astrid M. Veronig

Publications and source records attributed to Astrid M. Veronig.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Lorentz Force Evolution Reveals the Energy Buildup Processes during Recurrent Eruptive Solar Flares

The energy release and build-up processes in the solar corona have significant implications in particular for the case of large recurrent flares, which pose challenging questions about the conditions that lead to the episodic energy release processes. It is not yet clear whether these events occur due to the continuous supply of free magnetic energy to the solar corona or because not all of the available free magnetic energy is released during a single major flaring event. In order to address this question, we report on the evolution of photospheric magnetic field and the associated net Lorentz force changes in ARs 11261 and 11283, each of which gave rise to recurrent eruptive M- and X-class flares. Our study reveals that after the abrupt downward changes during each flare, the net Lorentz force increases by (2-5)x10^22 dyne in between the successive flares. This distinct rebuild-up of net Lorentz forces is the first observational evidence found in the evolution of any non-potential parameter of solar active regions (ARs), which suggests that new energy was supplied to the ARs in order to produce the recurrent large flares. The rebuild-up of magnetic free energy of the ARs is further confirmed by the observations of continuous shearing motion of moving magnetic features of opposite polarities near the polarity inversion line. The evolutionary pattern of the net Lorentz force changes reported in this study has significant implications, in particular, for the forecasting of recurrent large eruptive flares from the same AR and hence the chances of interaction between the associated CMEs.

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arXiv2019

Comprehensive Characterization of Solar Eruptions With Remote and In-Situ Observations, and Modeling: The Major Solar Events on 4 November 2015

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an important product of solar activity. They are connected to solar active regions and flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), EUV waves, shocks, Type II and III radio emissions, and X-ray bursts. These phenomena are major probes of the partition of energy in solar eruptions, as well as for the organization, dynamics, and relaxation of coronal and interplanetary magnetic fields. Many of these phenomena cause terrestrial space weather, posing multiple hazards for humans and their technology from space to the ground. Since particular flares, shocks, CMEs, and EUV waves produce SEP events but others do not, since propagation effects from the low corona to 1 AU appear important for some events but not others, and since Type II and III radio emissions and X-ray bursts are sometimes produced by energetic particles leaving these acceleration sites, it is necessary to study the whole system with a multi-frequency and multi-instrument perspective that combines both in-situ and remote observations with detailed modelling of phenomena. This article demonstrates this comprehensive approach, and shows its necessity, by analysing a trio of unusual and striking solar eruptions, radio and X-ray bursts, and SEP events that occurred on 4 November 2015. These events show both strong similarities and differences from standard events and each other, despite having very similar interplanetary conditions and only two are sites and CME genesis regions. They are therefore major targets for further in-depth observational studies, and for testing both existing and new theories and models. Based on the very limited modelling available we identify the aspects that are and are not understood, and we discuss ideas that may lead to improved understanding of the SEP, radio, and space-weather events.

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arXiv2019

Statistical Analysis and Catalog of Non-polar Coronal Holes Covering the SDO-era using CATCH

Coronal holes are usually defined as dark structures as seen in the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray spectrum which are generally associated with open magnetic field. Deriving reliably the coronal hole boundary is of high interest, as its area, underlying magnetic field, and other properties give important hints towards high speed solar wind acceleration processes and on compression regions arriving at Earth. In this study we present a new threshold based extraction method that incorporates the intensity gradient along the coronal hole boundary, which is implemented as a user-friendly SSWIDL GUI. The Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) enables the user to download data, perform guided coronal hole extraction and analyze the underlying photospheric magnetic field. We use CATCH to analyze non-polar coronal holes during the SDO-era, based on 193 Å filtergrams taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms taken by the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Between 2010 and 2019 we investigate 707 coronal holes that are located close to the central meridian. We find coronal holes distributed across latitudes of about +/- 60 degree for which we derive sizes between 1.6 x 10 9 and 1.8 x 10 11 km^2 . The absolute value of the mean signed magnetic field strength tends towards an average of 2.9 +/- 1.9 G. As far as the abundance and size of coronal holes is concerned, we find no distinct trend towards the northern or southern hemisphere. We find that variations in local and global conditions may significantly change the threshold needed for reliable coronal hole extraction and thus, we can highlight the importance of individually assessing and extracting coronal holes.

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arXiv2019

CME -- HSS interaction and characteristics tracked from Sun to Earth

In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun up to 3 Rsun. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30 degrees due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME-HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CMEs Altered Trajectory ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth's magnetosphere.

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arXiv2019

Spectroscopy and Differential Emission Measure diagnostics of a coronal dimming associated with a fast halo CME

We study the coronal dimming caused by the fast halo CME (deprojected speed v =1250 km s $^{-1})$ associated with the C3.7 two-ribbon flare on 2012 September 27, using Hinode/EIS spectroscopy and SDO/AIA Differential Emission Measure (DEM) analysis. The event reveals bipolar core dimmings encompassed by hook-shaped flare ribbons located at the ends of the flare-related polarity inversion line, and marking the footpoints of the erupting filament. In coronal emission lines of $\log T \, [{\rm K}] = 5.8-6.3$, distinct double component spectra indicative of the superposition of a stationary and a fast up-flowing plasma component with velocities up to 130 km s$^{-1}$ are observed at regions, which were mapped by the scanning EIS slit close in time of their impulsive dimming onset. The outflowing plasma component is found to be of the same order and even dominant over the stationary one, with electron densities in the upflowing component of $2\times 10^{9}$cm$^{-3}$ at $\log T \, [{\rm K}] = 6.2$. The density evolution in core dimming regions derived from SDO/AIA DEM analysis reveals impulsive reductions by $40 - 50\%$ within $\lesssim$10 min, and remains at these reduced levels for hours. The mass loss rate derived from the EIS spectroscopy in the dimming regions is of the same order than the mass increase rate observed in the associated white light CME ($1 \times 10^{12} {\rm \; g \; s}^{-1}$), indicative that the CME mass increase in the coronagraphic field-of-view results from plasma flows from below and not from material piled-up ahead of the outward moving and expanding CME front.

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arXiv2019

3D reconstructions of EUV wave front heights and their influence on wave kinematics

EUV waves are large-scale disturbances in the solar corona initiated by coronal mass ejections. However, solar EUV images show only the wave fronts projections along the line-of-sight of the spacecraft. We perform 3D reconstructions of EUV wave front heights using multi-point observations from STEREO-A and STEREO-B, and study their evolution to properly estimate the EUV wave kinematics. We develop two different methods to solve the matching problem of the EUV wave crest on pairs of STEREO-A/-B images by combining epipolar geometry with the investigation of perturbation profiles. The proposed approaches are applicable at the early and maximum stage of the event when STEREO-A/-B see different facets of the EUV wave, but also at the later stage when the wave front becomes diffusive and faint. The techniques developed are demonstrated on two events observed at different separation of the STEREO spacecraft (42$^\circ$ and 91$^\circ$). For the 7 December 2007 event, we find that the emission of the EUV wave front mainly comes from a height range up to 90-104 Mm, decreasing later to 7-35 Mm. Including the varying height of the EUV wave front allows us to correct the wave kinematics for the projection effects, resulting in velocities in the range 217-266 km/s. For the 13 February 2009 event, the wave front height doubled from 54 to 93 Mm over 10 min, and the velocity derived is 205-208 km/s. In the two events under study, the corrected speeds differ by up to 25% from the uncorrected ones, depending on the wave front height evolution.

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arXiv2019

Heliospheric Evolution of Magnetic Clouds

Interplanetary evolution of eleven magnetic clouds (MCs) recorded by at least two radially aligned spacecraft is studied. The in situ magnetic field measurements are fitted to a cylindrically symmetric Gold-Hoyle force-free uniform-twist flux-rope configuration. The analysis reveals that in a statistical sense the expansion of studied MCs is compatible with self-similar behavior. However, individual events expose a large scatter of expansion rates, ranging from very weak to very strong expansion. Individually, only four events show an expansion rate compatible with the isotropic self-similar expansion. The results indicate that the expansion has to be much stronger when MCs are still close to the Sun than in the studied 0.47 - 4.8 AU distance range. The evolution of the magnetic field strength shows a large deviation from the behavior expected for the case of an isotropic self-similar expansion. In the statistical sense, as well as in most of the individual events, the inferred magnetic field decreases much slower than expected. Only three events show a behavior compatible with a self-similar expansion. There is also a discrepancy between the magnetic field decrease and the increase of the MC size, indicating that magnetic reconnection and geometrical deformations play a significant role in the MC evolution. About half of the events show a decay of the electric current as expected for the self-similar expansion. Statistically, the inferred axial magnetic flux is broadly consistent with it remaining constant. However, events characterized by large magnetic flux show a clear tendency of decreasing flux.

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arXiv2019

Pre-eruption processes: heating, particle acceleration and the formation of a hot channel before the 2012 October 20 M9.0 limb flare

We report a detailed study of the pre-eruption activities that led to the occurrence of an M9.0 flare/CME event on 2012 October 20 in NOAA AR 11598. This includes the study of the preceding confined C2.4 flare that occurred on the same AR ~25 minutes earlier. We observed that the M9.0 flare occurred as a consequence of two distinct triggering events well separated in time. The first triggering episode occurred as early as ~20 minutes before the onset of the M9.0 flare, evidenced by the destabilization and rise of a pre-existing filament to a new position of equilibrium at a higher coronal altitude during the decay phase of the C2.4 flare. This brought the system to a magnetic configuration where the establishment of the second triggering event was favorable. The second triggering episode occurred ~17 minutes later, during the early phase of the M9.0 flare, evidenced by the further rise of the filament and successful ejection. The second trigger is followed by a flare precursor phase, characterized by non-thermal emission and the sequential formation of a hot channel as shown by the SDO/AIA DEM (differential emission measure) maps, the RHESSI X-ray images and spectra. These observations are suggestive of magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration that can explain the precursor phase and can be directly related to the formation of the hot channel. We discuss on the triggering mechanisms, their implications during the early and precursor phases and highlight the importance of early activities and preceding small confined flares to understand the initiation of large eruptive flares.

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arXiv2019

The Birth of A Coronal Mass Ejection

The Sun's atmosphere is frequently disrupted by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), coupled with flares and energetic particles. In the standard picture, the coupling is explained by magnetic reconnection at a vertical current sheet connecting the flare loops and the CME, with the latter embedding a helical magnetic structure known as flux rope. As it jumps upward due to instabilities or loss of equilibrium, the flux rope stretches the overlying coronal loops so that oppositely directed field is brought together underneath, creating the current sheet. However, both the origin of flux ropes and their nascent paths toward eruption remain elusive. Here we present an observation of how a stellar-sized CME bubble evolves continuously from plasmoids, mini flux ropes that are barely resolved, within half an hour. The eruption initiates when plasmoids springing from a vertical current sheet merge into a leading plasmoid occupying the upper tip of the current sheet. Rising at increasing speed to stretch the overlying loops, this leading plasmoid then expands impulsively into the CME bubble, in tandem with hard X-ray bursts. This observation illuminates for the first time a complete CME evolutionary path that has the capacity to accommodate a wide variety of plasma phenomena by bridging the gap between micro-scale dynamics and macro-scale activities.

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arXiv2018

Successive flux rope eruptions from $δ$-Sunspots region of NOAA 12673 and associated X-class eruptive flares on 2017 September 6

In this paper, we present a multi-wavelength analysis of two X-class solar eruptive flares of classes X2.2 and X9.3 that occurred in the sigmoidal active region NOAA 12673 on 2017 September 6, by combining observations of Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and Helioseismic Magnetic Imager instruments on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. On the day of the reported activity, the photospheric structure of the active region displayed a very complex network of $δ$-sunspots that gave rise to the formation of a coronal sigmoid observed in the hot EUV channels. Both X-class flares initiated from the core of the sigmoid sequentially within an interval of $\sim$3 hours and progressed as a single "sigmoid--to--arcade" event. Differential emission measure analysis reveals strong heating of plasma at the core of the active region right from the pre-flare phase which further intensified and spatially expanded during each event. The identification of a pre-existing magnetic null by non-force-free-field modeling of the coronal magnetic fields at the location of early flare brightenings and remote faint ribbon-like structures during the pre-flare phase, which were magnetically connected with the core region, provide support for the breakout model of solar eruption. The magnetic extrapolations also reveal flux rope structures prior to both flares which are subsequently supported by the observations of the eruption of hot EUV channels. The second X-class flare diverged from the standard flare scenario in the evolution of two sets of flare ribbons, that are spatially well separated, providing firm evidence of magnetic reconnections at two coronal heights.

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arXiv2018

Genesis and impulsive evolution of the 2017 September 10 coronal mass ejection

The X8.2 event of 10 September 2017 provides unique observations to study the genesis, magnetic morphology and impulsive dynamics of a very fast CME. Combining GOES-16/SUVI and SDO/AIA EUV imagery, we identify a hot ($T\approx 10-15$ MK) bright rim around a quickly expanding cavity, embedded inside a much larger CME shell ($T\approx 1-2$ MK). The CME shell develops from a dense set of large AR loops ($\gtrsim$0.5 $R_s$), and seamlessly evolves into the CME front observed in LASCO C2. The strong lateral overexpansion of the CME shell acts as a piston initiating the fast EUV wave. The hot cavity rim is demonstrated to be a manifestation of the dominantly poloidal flux and frozen-in plasma added to the rising flux rope by magnetic reconnection in the current sheet beneath. The same structure is later observed as the core of the white light CME, challenging the traditional interpretation of the CME three-part morphology. The large amount of added magnetic flux suggested by these observations explains the extreme accelerations of the radial and lateral expansion of the CME shell and cavity, all reaching values of $5 - 10$ km s$^{-2}$. The acceleration peaks occur simultaneously with the first RHESSI $100-300$ keV hard X-ray burst of the associated flare, further underlining the importance of the reconnection process for the impulsive CME evolution. Finally, the much higher radial propagation speed of the flux rope in relation to the CME shell causes a distinct deformation of the white light CME front and shock.

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arXiv2018

Statistics of coronal dimmings associated with coronal mass ejections. II. Relationship between coronal dimmings and their associated CMEs

We present a statistical study of 62 coronal dimming events associated with Earth-directed CMEs during the quasi-quadrature period of STEREO and SDO. This unique setting allows us to study both phenomena in great detail and compare characteristic quantities statistically. Coronal dimmings are observed on-disk by SDO/AIA and HMI, while the CME kinematics during the impulsive acceleration phase is studied close to the limb with STEREO/EUVI and COR, minimizing projection effects. The dimming area, its total unsigned magnetic flux and its total brightness, reflecting properties of the total dimming region at its final extent, show the highest correlations with the CME mass ($c\sim0.6-0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dynamics of the dimming evolution, show the strongest correlations with the CME peak velocity ($c\sim 0.6$). The highest correlation of $c=0.68\pm0.08$ is found with the mean intensity of dimmings, indicating that the lower the CME starts in the corona, the faster it propagates. No significant correlation between dimming parameters and the CME acceleration was found. However, for events where high-cadence STEREO observations were available, the mean unsigned magnetic field density in the dimming regions tends to be positively correlated with the CME peak acceleration ($c=0.42\pm0.20$). This suggests that stronger magnetic fields result in higher Lorentz forces providing stronger driving force for the CME acceleration. Specific coronal dimming parameters correlate with both, CME and flare quantities providing further evidence for the flare-CME feedback relationship. For events in which the CME occurs together with a flare, coronal dimmings statistically reflect the properties of both phenomena.

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arXiv2018

Statistics of coronal dimmings associated with coronal mass ejections. I. Characteristic dimming properties and flare association

Coronal dimmings, localized regions of reduced emission in the EUV and soft X-rays, are interpreted as density depletions due to mass loss during the CME expansion. They contain crucial information on the early evolution of CMEs low in the corona. For 62 dimming events, characteristic parameters are derived, statistically analyzed and compared with basic flare quantities. On average, coronal dimmings have a size of $2.15\times10^{10}$ km$^{2}$, contain a total unsigned magnetic flux of $1.75\times10^{21}$ Mx, and show a total brightness decrease of $-1.91\times10^{6}$ DN, which results in a relative decrease of $\sim$60% compared to the pre-eruption intensity level. Their main evacuation phase lasts for $\sim$50 minutes. The dimming area, the total dimming brightness, and the total unsigned magnetic flux show the highest correlation with the flare SXR fluence ($c\gtrsim0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dimming dynamics, strongly correlate with the GOES flare class ($c\gtrsim 0.6$). For 60% of the events we identified core dimmings, i.e. signatures of an erupting flux rope. They contain 20% of the magnetic flux covering only 5% of the total dimming area. Secondary dimmings map overlying fields that are stretched during the eruption and closed down by magnetic reconnection, thus adding flux to the erupting flux rope via magnetic reconnection. This interpretation is supported by the strong correlation between the magnetic fluxes of secondary dimmings and flare reconnection fluxes ($c=0.63\pm0.08$), the balance between positive and negative magnetic fluxes ($c=0.83\pm0.04$) within the total dimmings and the fact that for strong flares ($>$M1.0) the reconnection and secondary dimming fluxes are roughly equal.

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arXiv2018

Plasma diagnostics of coronal dimming events

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are often associated with coronal dimmings, i.e. transient dark regions that are most distinctly observed in Extreme Ultra-violet (EUV) wavelengths. Using Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data, we apply Differential Emission Measure (DEM) diagnostics to study the plasma characteristics of six coronal dimming events. In the core dimming region, we find a steep and impulsive decrease of density with values up to 50-70%. Five of the events also reveal an associated drop in temperature of 5-25%. The secondary dimming regions also show a distinct decrease in density, but less strong, decreasing by 10-45%. In both the core and the secondary dimming the density changes are much larger than the temperature changes, confirming that the dimming regions are mainly caused by plasma evacuation. In the core dimming, the plasma density reduces rapidly within the first 20-30 min after the flare start, and does not recover for at least 10 hrs later, whereas the secondary dimming tends to be more gradual and starts to replenish after 1-2 hrs. The pre-event temperatures are higher in the core dimming (1.7-2.6 MK) than in the secondary dimming regions (1.6-2.0 MK). Both core and secondary dimmings are best observed in the AIA 211 Å and 193 Å filters. These findings suggest that the core dimming corresponds to the footpoints of the erupting flux rope rooted in the AR, while the secondary dimming represents plasma from overlying coronal structures that expand during the CME eruption.

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arXiv2018

On the detection of coronal dimmings and the extraction of their characteristic properties

Coronal dimmings are distinct phenomena associated to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The study of coronal dimmings and the extraction of their characteristic parameters helps us to obtain additional information of CMEs, especially on the initiation and early evolution of Earth-directed CMEs. We present a new approach to detect coronal dimming regions based on a thresholding technique applied on logarithmic base-ratio images. Characteristic dimming parameters describing the dynamics, morphology, magnetic properties and the brightness of coronal dimming regions are extracted by cumulatively summing newly dimmed pixels over time. It is also demonstrated how core dimming regions are identified as a subset of the overall identified dimming region. We successfully apply our method to two well-observed coronal dimming events. For both events the core dimming regions are identified and the spatial evolution of the dimming area reveals the expansion of the dimming region around these footpoints. We also show that in the early impulsive phase of the dimming expansion the total unsigned magnetic flux involved in the dimming regions is balanced and that up to 30% of this flux results from the localized core dimming regions. Furthermore, the onset in the profile of the area growth rate is co-temporal with the start of the associated flares and in one case also with the fast rise of the CME, indicating a strong relationship of coronal dimmings with both flare and CMEs.

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arXiv2018

Statistical Properties of Ribbon Evolution and Reconnection Electric Fields in Eruptive and Confined Flares

A statistical study of the chromospheric ribbon evolution in H$α$ two-ribbon flares is performed. The data set consists of 50 confined ($62\,\%$) and eruptive ($38\,\%$) flares that occurred from June 2000 to June 2015. The flares are selected homogeneously over the H$α$ and $\textit{GOES}$ (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) classes, with an emphasis on including powerful confined flares and weak eruptive flares. H$α$ filtergrams from Kanzelhöhe Observatory in combination with $\textit{MDI}$ (Michelson Doppler Imager) and $\textit{HMI}$ (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) magnetograms are used to derive the ribbon separation, the ribbon-separation velocity, the magnetic-field strength, and the reconnection electric field. We find that eruptive flares reveal statistically larger ribbon separation and higher ribbon-separation velocities than confined flares. In addition, the ribbon separation of eruptive flares correlates with the GOES SXR flux, whereas no clear dependence was found for confined flares. The maximum ribbon-separation velocity is not correlated with the GOES flux, but eruptive flares reveal on average a higher ribbon-separation velocity (by $\approx 10~$km$~$s$^{-1}$). The local reconnection electric field of confined ($cc=0.50~\pm~0.02$) and eruptive ($cc=0.77~\pm~0.03$) flares correlates with the GOES flux, indicating that more powerful flares involve stronger reconnection electric fields. In addition, eruptive flares with higher electric-field strengths tend to be accompanied by faster coronal mass ejections.

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arXiv2017

Sunspot number second differences as a precursor of the following 11-year sunspot cycle

Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle to predict the strength of the next cycle when the minimum of the current cycle has been observed. In this study we continue this approach and show that we can remove the limitation of having to know the minimum epoch of the current cycle, and that we can already provide a forecast of the following cycle strength in the early stage of the declining phase of the current cycle. We introduce a method to reliably calculate sunspot number second differences (SNSD) in order to quantify the short-term variations of sunspot activity. We demonstrate a steady relationship between the SNSD dynamics in the early stage of the declining phase of a given cycle and the strength of the following sunspot cycle. This finding may bear physical implications on the underlying dynamo at work. From this relation, a relevant indicator is constructed that distinguishes whether the next cycle will be stronger or weaker compared to the current one. We demonstrate that within 24-31 months after reaching the maximum of the cycle, it can be decided with high probability (0.96) whether the next cycle will be weaker or stronger. We predict that sunspot cycle 25 will be weaker than the current cycle 24.

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arXiv2017

On the factors determining the eruptive character of solar flares

We investigated how the magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs) controls flare activity, i.e., whether a confined or eruptive flare occurs. We analyzed 44 flares of GOES class M5.0 and larger that occurred during 2011--2015. We used 3D potential magnetic field models to study their location (using the flare distance from the flux-weighted AR center $d_{\mathrm{FC}}$) and the strength of the magnetic field in the corona above (via decay index $n$ and flux ratio). We also present a first systematic study of the orientation of the coronal magnetic field, using the orientation $φ$ of the flare-relevant polarity inversion line as a measure. We analyzed all quantities with respect to the size of the underlying dipole field, characterized by the distance between the opposite-polarity centers, $d_{\mathrm{PC}}$. Flares originating from underneath the AR dipole $(d_{\mathrm{FC}}/d_{\mathrm{PC}}<0.5$) tend to be eruptive if launched from compact ARs ($d_{\mathrm{PC}}\leq60$ Mm) and confined if launched from extended ARs. Flares ejected from the periphery of ARs ($d_{\mathrm{FC}}/d_{\mathrm{PC}}>0.5$) are predominantly eruptive. In confined events the flare-relevant field adjusts its orientation quickly to that of the underlying dipole with height ($Δφ\gtrsim40^\circ$ until the apex of the dipole field), in contrast to eruptive events where it changes more slowly with height. The critical height for torus instability, $h_{\mathrm{crit}}=h(n=1.5)$, discriminates best between confined ($h_{\mathrm{crit}}\gtrsim40$ Mm) and eruptive flares ($h_{\mathrm{crit}}\lesssim40$ Mm). It discriminates better than $Δφ$, implying that the decay of the confining field plays a stronger role than its orientation at different heights.

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