arXiv subjects

Astrid Veronig

Publications and source records attributed to Astrid Veronig.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Solar-MACH: An open-source tool to analyze solar magnetic connection configurations

The Solar MAgnetic Connection HAUS tool (Solar-MACH) is an open-source tool completely written in Python that derives and visualizes the spatial configuration and solar magnetic connection of different observers (i.e., spacecraft or planets) in the heliosphere at different times. For doing this, the magnetic connection in the interplanetary space is obtained by the classic Parker Heliospheric Magnetic Field (HMF). In close vicinity of the Sun, a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model can be applied to connect the HMF to the solar photosphere. Solar-MACH is especially aimed at providing publication-ready figures for the analyses of Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) or solar transients such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). It is provided as an installable Python package (listed on PyPI and conda-forge), but also as a web tool at solar-mach.github.io that completely runs in any web browser and requires neither Python knowledge nor installation. The development of Solar-MACH is open to everyone and takes place on GitHub, where the source code is publicly available under the BSD 3-Clause License. Established Python libraries like sunpy and pfsspy are utilized to obtain functionalities when possible. In this article, the Python code of Solar-MACH is explained, and its functionality is demonstrated using real science examples. In addition, we introduce the overarching SERPENTINE project, the umbrella under which the recent development took place.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Determination of CME orientation and consequences for their propagation

The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME orientation, especially from image data, remains a challenging task to perform. This study aims to provide a reference to different CME orientation determination methods in the near-Sun environment. Also, it aims to investigate the non-radial flow in the sheath region of the interplanetary CME (ICME) in order to provide the first proxy to relate the ICME orientation with its propagation. We investigated 22 isolated CME-ICME events in the period 2008-2015. We determined the CME orientation in the near-Sun environment using the following: 1) a 3D reconstruction of the CME with the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model applied to coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions and; 2) an ellipse fitting applied to single spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and field data and also investigated the non-radial flow (NRF) in its sheath region. The ability of GCS and ellipse fitting to determine the CME orientation is found to be limited to reliably distinguish only between the high or low inclination of the events. Most of the CME-ICME pairs under investigation were found to be characterized by a low inclination. For the majority of CME-ICME pairs, we obtain consistent estimations of the tilt from remote and in situ data. The observed NRFs in the sheath region show a greater y direction to z direction flow ratio for high-inclination events, indicating that the CME orientation could have an impact on the CME propagation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

How the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth -- An analytical model

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Kanzelhöhe Observatory: instruments, data processing and data products

Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental Research (KSO) of the University of Graz (Austria) is in continuous operation since its foundation in 1943. Since the beginning its main task was the regular observation of the Sun in full disc. In this long time span covering almost seven solar cycles, a substantial amount of data was collected, which is made available online. In this paper we describe the separate processing steps from data acquisition to high level products for the different observing wavelengths. First of all we work out in detail the quality classification, which is important for further processing of the raw images. We show how we construct centre-to-limb variation (CLV) profiles and how we remove large scale intensity variations produced by the telescope optics in order to get images with uniform intensity and contrast. Another important point is an overview of the different data products from raw images to high contrast images with heliographic grids overlaid. As the data products are accessible via different sources we also present how to get information about the availability and how to obtain these data. Finally, in an appendix, we describe in detail the information in the FITS headers, the file naming and the data hierarchy.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $γ$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $γ$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($γ\approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

A journey of exploration to the polar regions of a star: probing the solar poles and the heliosphere from high helio-latitude

A mission to view the solar poles from high helio-latitudes (above 60$^\circ$) will build on the experience of Solar Orbiter as well as a long heritage of successful solar missions and instrumentation (e.g. SOHO \cite{SOHO}, STEREO \cite{stereo}, Hinode \cite{Hinode}, SDO \cite{SDO}), but will focus for the first time on the solar poles, enabling scientific investigations that cannot be done by any other mission. One of the major mysteries of the Sun is the solar cycle. The activity cycle of the Sun drives the structure and behaviour of the heliosphere and is, of course, the driver of space weather. In addition, solar activity and variability provides fluctuating input into the Earth climate models, and these same physical processes are applicable to stellar systems hosting exoplanets. One of the main obstructions to understanding the solar cycle, and hence all solar activity, is our current lack of understanding of the polar regions. In this White Paper, submitted to the European Space Agency in response to the Voyage 2050 call, we describe a mission concept that aims to address this fundamental issue. In parallel, we recognise that viewing the Sun from above the polar regions enables further scientific advantages, beyond those related to the solar cycle, such as unique and powerful studies of coronal mass ejection processes, from a global perspective, and studies of coronal structure and activity in polar regions. Not only will these provide important scientific advances for fundamental stellar physics research, they will feed into our understanding of impacts on the Earth and other planets' space environment.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Drag-based model (DBM) tools for forecast of coronal mass ejection arrival time and speed

Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs. DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate, and is based on the concept of MHD drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for the shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. Here we give an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters. These include: 1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e. the apex of the CME) or concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); 2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves self-similarly; 3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve self-similarly; 4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input and 5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, of their similarities and differences, as well as discuss and demonstrate their application.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

The Observational Uncertainty of Coronal Hole Boundaries in Automated Detection Schemes

Coronal holes are the observational manifestation of the solar magnetic field open to the heliosphere and are of pivotal importance for our understanding of the origin and acceleration of the solar wind. Observations from space missions such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory now allow us to study coronal holes in unprecedented detail. Instrumental effects and other factors, however, pose a challenge to automatically detect coronal holes in solar imagery. The science community addresses these challenges with different detection schemes. Until now, little attention has been paid to assessing the disagreement between these schemes. In this COSPAR ISWAT initiative, we present a comparison of nine automated detection schemes widely-applied in solar and space science. We study, specifically, a prevailing coronal hole observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument on 2018 May 30. Our results indicate that the choice of detection scheme has a significant effect on the location of the coronal hole boundary. Physical properties in coronal holes such as the area, mean intensity, and mean magnetic field strength vary by a factor of up to 4.5 between the maximum and minimum values. We conclude that our findings are relevant for coronal hole research from the past decade, and are therefore of interest to the solar and space research community.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Search for flares and associated CMEs on late-type main-sequence stars in optical SDSS spectra

This work aims to detect and classify stellar flares and potential stellar coronal mass ejection (CME) signatures in optical spectra provided by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data release 14. The sample is constrained to all F, G, K, and M main-sequence type stars, resulting in more than 630,000 stars. This work makes use of the individual spectral exposures provided by the SDSS. An automatic flare search was performed by detecting significant amplitude changes in the $Hα$ and $Hβ$ spectral lines after a Gaussian profile was fit to the line core. CMEs were searched for by identifying asymmetries in the Balmer lines caused by the Doppler effect of plasma motions in the line of sight. We identified 281 flares on late-type stars (spectral types K3 to M9). We identified six possible CME candidates showing excess flux in Balmer line wings. Flare energies in $Hα$ were calculated and masses of the CME candidates were estimated. The derived $Hα$ flare energies range from $3 \times 10^{28} - 2 \times 10^{33}$ erg. The $Hα$ flare energy increases with earlier types, while the fraction of flaring times increases with later types. Mass estimates for the CME candidates are in the range of $6 \times 10^{16} - 6 \times 10^{18}$ g, and the highest projected velocities are $\sim300 - 700\:$ km/s. The low detection rate of CMEs we obtained agrees with previous studies, suggesting that for late-type main-sequence stars the CME occurrence rate that can be detected with optical spectroscopy is low.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Image Quality Assessment for Full-Disk Solar Observations with Generative Adversarial Networks

In order to assure a stable series of recorded images of sufficient quality for further scientific analysis, an objective image quality measure is required. Especially when dealing with ground-based observations, which are subject to varying seeing conditions and clouds, the quality assessment has to take multiple effects into account and provide information about the affected regions. In this study, we develop a deep learning method that is suited to identify anomalies and provide an image quality assessment of solar full-disk H$α$ filtergrams. The approach is based on the structural appearance and the true image distribution of high-quality observations. We employ a neural network with an encoder-decoder architecture to perform an identity transformation of selected high-quality observations. The encoder network is used to achieve a compressed representation of the input data, which is reconstructed to the original by the decoder. We use adversarial training to recover truncated information based on the high-quality image distribution. When images with reduced quality are transformed, the reconstruction of unknown features (e.g., clouds, contrails, partial occultation) shows deviations from the original. This difference is used to quantify the quality of the observations and to identify the affected regions. We apply our method to full-disk H$α$ filtergrams from Kanzelhöhe Observatory recorded during 2012-2019 and demonstrate its capability to perform a reliable image quality assessment for various atmospheric conditions and instrumental effects, without the requirement of reference observations. Our quality metric achieves an accuracy of 98.5% in distinguishing observations with quality-degrading effects from clear observations and provides a continuous quality measure which is in good agreement with the human perception.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Sun-to-Earth Observations and Characteristics of Isolated Earth-Impacting Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 2008-2014

A sample of isolated Earth-impacting ICMEs that occurred in the period January 2008 to August 2014 is analysed in order to study in detail the ICME in situ signatures with respect to the type of filament eruption related to the corresponding CME. For Earth-directed CMEs, a kinematical study was performed using the STEREO-A, B COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs and the Heliospheric Imagers HI1. Based on the extrapolated CME kinematics, we identified interacting CMEs, which were excluded from further analysis. Applying this approach, a set of 31 isolated Earth-impacting CMEs was unambiguously identified and related to the in situ measurements recorded by the Wind spacecraft. We classified the events into subsets with respect to the CME source location as well as with respect to the type of the associated filament eruption. Hence, the events are divided into three subsamples: active region (AR) CMEs, disappearing filament (DSF) CMEs, and stealthy CMEs. The related three groups of ICMEs were further divided into two subsets: magnetic obstacle (MO) events (out of which four were stealthy), covering ICMEs that at least partly expose characteristics of flux ropes, and ejecta (EJ) events, not showing such characteristics. In the next step, MO-events were analysed in more detail, considering the magnetic field strengths and the plasma characteristics in three different segments of the ICMEs, defined as the turbulent sheath (TS), the frontal region (FR), and the MO itself. The analysis revealed various well-defined correlations for AR, DSF, and stealthy ICMEs, which we interpreted considering basic physical concepts. Our results support the hypothesis that ICMEs show different signatures depending on the in situ spacecraft trajectory, in terms of apex versus flank hits.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Clustering of fast Coronal Mass Ejections during the solar cycles 23 and 24 and implications for CME-CME interactions

We study the clustering properties of fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that occurred during solar cycles 23 and 24. We apply two methods: the Max spectrum method can detect the predominant clusters and the de-clustering threshold time method provides details on the typical clustering properties and time scales. Our analysis shows that during the different phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, CMEs with speed $\geq 1000\ km/s$ preferentially occur as isolated events and in clusters with on average two members. However, clusters with more members appear particularly during the maximum phases of the solar cycles. Over the total period and in the maximum phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, about 50% are isolated events, 18% (12%) occur in clusters with 2 (3) members, and another 20% in larger clusters $\geq 4$, whereas in solar minimum fast CMEs tend to occur more frequently as isolated events (62%). During different solar cycle phases, the typical de-clustering time scales of fast CMEs are $τ_c=28-32\ hrs$, irrespective of the very different occurrence frequencies of CMEs during solar minimum and maximum. These findings suggest that $τ_c$ for extreme events may reflect the characteristic energy build-up time for large flare and CME-prolific active ARs. Associating statistically the clustering properties of fast CMEs with the Disturbance storm index Dst at Earth suggests that fast CMEs occuring in clusters tend to produce larger geomagnetic storms than isolated fast CMEs. This may be related to CME-CME interaction producing a more complex and stronger interaction with the Earth magnetosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Using radio triangulation to understand the origin of two subsequent type II radio bursts

Context: Eruptive events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares accelerate particles and generate shock waves which can arrive at Earth and can disturb the magnetosphere. Understanding the association between CMEs and CME-driven shocks is therefore highly important for space weather studies. Aims: We present a study of the CME/flare event associated with two type II bursts observed on September 27, 2012. The aim of the study is to understand the relationship between the observed CME and the two distinct shock wave signatures. Methods: The multi-wavelength study of the eruptive event (CME/flare) was complemented with radio triangulation of the associated radio emission and modelling of the CME and the shock wave employing MHD simulations. Results: We found that, although temporal association between the type II bursts and the CME is good, the low-frequency type II(LF-type II) burst occurs significantly higher in the corona than the CME and its relationship to the CME is not straightforward. The analysis of the EIT wave (coronal bright front) shows the fastest wave component to be in the southeast quadrant of the Sun. This is also the quadrant in which the source positions of the LF-type II were found to be located, probably resulting from the interaction between the shock wave and a streamer. Conclusions: The relationship between the CME/flare event and the shock wave signatures is discussed using the temporal association,as well as the spatial information of the radio emission. Further, we discuss the importance and possible effects of the frequently non-radial propagation of the shock wave.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Evolution of coronal mass ejections and the corresponding Forbush decreases: modelling vs multi-spacecraft observations

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head-on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modelling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modelling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (ForbMod). We find a reasonable agreement of the ForbMod model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modelled FDs reflect well the CME evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Comparing the Properties of ICME-Induced Forbush Decreases at Earth and Mars

Forbush decreases (FDs), which are short-term drops in the flux of galactic cosmic rays, are caused by the shielding from strong and/or turbulent magnetic structures in the solar wind, especially interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks, as well as corotating interaction regions. Such events can be observed at Earth, for example, using neutron monitors, and also at many other locations in the solar system, such as on the surface of Mars with the Radiation Assessment Detector instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory. They are often used as a proxy for detecting the arrival of ICMEs or corotating interaction regions, especially when sufficient in situ solar wind measurements are not available. We compare the properties of FDs observed at Earth and Mars, focusing on events produced by ICMEs. We find that FDs at both locations show a correlation between their total amplitude and the maximum hourly decrease, but with different proportionality factors. We explain this difference using theoretical modeling approaches and suggest that it is related to the size increase of ICMEs, and in particular their sheath regions, en route from Earth to Mars. From the FD data, we can derive the sheath broadening factor to be between about 1.5 and 1.9, agreeing with our theoretical considerations. This factor is also in line with previous measurements of the sheath evolution closer to the Sun.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Photospheric magnetic structure of coronal holes

In this study, we investigate in detail the photospheric magnetic structure of 98 coronal holes using line-of-sight magnetograms of SDO/HMI, and for a subset of 42 coronal holes using HINODE/SOT G-band filtergrams. We divided the magnetic field maps into magnetic elements and quiet coronal hole regions by applying a threshold at $\pm 25$ G. We find that the number of magnetic bright points in magnetic elements is well correlated with the area of the magnetic elements (cc=$0.83\pm 0.01$). Further, the magnetic flux of the individual magnetic elements inside coronal holes is related to their area by a power law with an exponent of $1.261\pm 0.004$ (cc=$0.984\pm 0.001$). Relating the magnetic elements to the overall structure of coronal holes, we find that on average ($69\pm 8$) % of the overall unbalanced magnetic flux of the coronal holes arises from long-lived magnetic elements with lifetimes > 40 hours. About ($22\pm 4$) % of the unbalanced magnetic flux arises from a very weak background magnetic field in the quiet coronal hole regions with a mean magnetic field density of about 0.2 to 1.2 G. This background magnetic field is correlated to the flux of the magnetic elements with lifetimes of > 40 h (cc=$0.88\pm 0.02$). The remaining flux arises from magnetic elements with lifetimes < 40 hours. By relating the properties of the magnetic elements to the overall properties of the coronal holes, we find that the unbalanced magnetic flux of the coronal holes is completely determined by the total area that the long-lived magnetic elements cover (cc=$0.994\pm 0.001$).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Unusual plasma and particle signatures at Mars and STEREO-A related to CME-CME interaction

On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15\% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Tracking and Validating ICMEs Propagating Toward Mars Using STEREO Heliospheric Imagers Combined With Forbush Decreases Detected by MSL/RAD

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission's Curiosity rover has been measuring galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) on the surface of Mars for more than 6 years since its landing in August 2012. The observations include a large number of Forbush decreases (FD) caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and/or their associated shocks shielding away part of the GCR particles with their turbulent and enhanced magnetic fields while passing Mars. This study combines MSL/RAD FD measurements and remote tracking of ICMEs using the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imager (HI) telescopes in a statistical study for the first time. The large data set collected by HI makes it possible to analyze 149 ICMEs propagating toward MSL both during its 8-month cruise phase and after its landing on Mars. We link 45 of the events observed at STEREO-HI to their corresponding FDs at MSL/RAD and study the accuracy of the ICME arrival time at Mars predicted from HI data using different methods. The mean differences between the predicted arrival times and those observed using FDs range from -11 to 5 hr for the different methods, with standard deviations between 17 and 20 hr. These values for predictions at Mars are very similar compared to other locations closer to the Sun and also comparable to the precision of some other modeling approaches.

physics.space-ph↗