Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2107.06684

Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

Jaša Čalogović·Mateja Dumbović·Davor Sudar·Bojan Vršnak·Karmen Martinić·Manuela Temmer·Astrid Veronig
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $\gamma$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $\gamma$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($\gamma \approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

Explore related subjects

astro-ph.SRphysics.space-ph

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Jaša Čalogović, Mateja Dumbović, Davor Sudar, Bojan Vršnak, Karmen Martinić, Manuela Temmer, Astrid Veronig. 2021-07-14. Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01859-5

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Eclipse Properties and Superhump Evolution in the SU UMa-Type Dwarf Nova Z Cha

The advent of large-scale time-domain surveys provides both opportunities and challenges for understanding accretion disk evolution in cataclysmic variables (CVs). Using high-cadence photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we investigate the eclipsing SU UMa-type dwarf nova Z Cha. Leveraging eclipses as a natural probe, we examine the evolution of the accretion disk through variations in eclipse depth, O--C of eclipse minima, and positive superhump (PSH) amplitude. During superoutbursts, all three quantities exhibit quasi-periodic modulations with a common period of $\sim$2 days, consistent with the precession period of an eccentric disk. We interpret these correlated variations as evidence of an eccentric, precessing disk: O--C traces the periodic shift of the system's brightness center, while eclipse depth and PSH amplitude vary with the orientation of the disk bulge relative to the line of sight. In quiescence (Sectors 13 and 93), PSHs with periods of $\sim$0.0762 days show linearly decreasing amplitudes and periods, indicating gradual shrinkage of the eccentric disk and a slowing precession. Remarkably, a coherent signal with a period of $\sim$0.0729~days ($\epsilon^{-}\approx-0.02$) appears in the same quiescent intervals. This signal may represent negative superhumps (NSHs) coexisting with PSHs, although an orbital sideband of the PSH cannot presently be excluded with the available data. If confirmed as NSHs, their coexistence with PSHs would challenge the classical tilted-disk model, and could be explained by retrograde apsidal precession of an eccentric disk, where the inner disk precesses retrogradely (NSHs) and the outer disk progradely (PSHs); this interpretation remains to be tested by further observations.

astro-ph.SR↗
arXiv2026

Classical Nova V1405 Cas Had $M_{\rm ejecta}$$>$$M_{\rm accreted}$ and so is Unlikely to be a Type Ia Supernova Progenitor

Nova 2021 Cassiopeia (V1405 Cas) was an ordinary J(175) neon nova with the white dwarf mass estimated to be $M_{\rm WD}$=0.60$\pm$0.10 $M_{\odot}$. I found an orbital period of $P$=0.1884 days, and have tracked 20 times of photometric minima from 2013--2025. I measure that $P$ increased from before to after the eruption with $P_{\rm pre}$=0.1883919$\pm$0.0000018 days and $P_{\rm post}$=0.1884043$\pm$0.0000018 days, for $\Delta P$/$P$=66$_{-18}^{+21}$ parts-per-million. With correction for the angular momentum loss by the binary during the eruption, I derive that the nova ejected $M_{\rm ejecta}$=7.5$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$, with an extreme range of (2.9--40)$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. The mass accreted during the previous eruption cycle comes from the trigger mass, and is $M_{\rm accreted}$=(1.6$\pm$0.4)$\times$10$^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. V1405 Cas provides counterexamples against five claims about CV evolution that have dominated since the 1980s. First, V1405 Cas has positive $\dot{P}$, and this is contrary to the Magnetic Braking Model. Second, the $\Delta P$ is 20$\times$ too small to allow the system to fade into a hibernation state. Third, $M_{\rm WD}$ is decreasing over time, as shown by $M_{\rm ejecta}$$>$$M_{\rm accreted}$ and by being a neon nova. Fourth, V1405 Cas is not a Type Ia supernova progenitor, for the same reasons. Fifth, the orbital period of V1405 Cas increased by $+$75 ppm from 2013--2025, as a counterexample to the pervasive idea that cataclysmic variables are universally declining in period from evolution. V1405 Cas is the latest of recent measures of $\Delta P$ and $\dot{P}$ for 52 cataclysmic variables and 25 X-ray binaries that have together refuted all five claims.

astro-ph.SR↗
arXiv2026

A prolonged plateau-to-tail transition in the Type II supernova SN2025abyc

We present optical photometric and spectroscopic observations of the Type II supernova SN2025abyc. During the optically thick phase between approximately 10 and 70 d after explosion, its light curves show strongly wavelength-dependent decline rates of approximately 2.7, 2.1, 0.9, and 0.8 mag/100d in the g, c, r, and o bands, respectively. At approximately 70 d, the light curves begin to depart from their nearly linear plateau evolution and gradually transition toward the radioactive tail. A Fermi-Dirac fit to the well-sampled ATLAS o-band light curve yields a transition midpoint of t_PT ~ 100.5d. The interval between the end of the linear plateau and this transition midpoint is approximately 30 d, indicating a prolonged plateau-to-tail transition. This timescale is comparable to those measured for SN2013by, SN2013ej, and SN2014G. Spectroscopically, at +13 d post-explosion, the Halpha profile appears weak and broad, whereas Hbeta and Hgamma display clear P-Cygni profiles. This morphology can be explained by the normal early spectroscopic evolution of SNe II, although partial filling of the Halpha absorption trough by emission associated with circumstellar interaction cannot be excluded. SN2025abyc otherwise follows the general photospheric velocity evolution of SNe II, while remaining toward the high-velocity side of the comparison distribution in Halpha, Hbeta, and FeII. Exploratory light-curve modelling suggests a synthesized Ni mass of approximately 0.03-0.04 solar mass. We suggest that the extended circumstellar environment, Ni distribution, and hydrogen-envelope structure could all play a role in shaping the observed light-curve evolution, particularly the prolonged plateau-to-tail transition.

astro-ph.SR↗