arXiv subjects

Axel Munk

Publications and source records attributed to Axel Munk.

90 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

Spot volatility estimation for high-frequency data: adaptive estimation in practice

We develop further the spot volatility estimator introduced in Hoffmann, Munk and Schmidt-Hieber (2012) from a practical point of view and make it useful for the analysis of high-frequency financial data. In a first part, we adjust the estimator substantially in order to achieve good finite sample performance and to overcome difficulties arising from violations of the additive microstructure noise model (e.g. jumps, rounding errors). These modifications are justified by simulations. The second part is devoted to investigate the behavior of volatility in response to macroeconomic events. We give evidence that the spot volatility of Euro-BUND futures is considerably higher during press conferences of the European Central Bank. As an outlook, we present an estimator for the spot covolatility of two different prices.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2013

Multiscale Change-Point Inference

We introduce a new estimator SMUCE (simultaneous multiscale change-point estimator) for the change-point problem in exponential family regression. An unknown step function is estimated by minimizing the number of change-points over the acceptance region of a multiscale test at a level α. The probability of overestimating the true number of change-points K is controlled by the asymptotic null distribution of the multiscale test statistic. Further, we derive exponential bounds for the probability of underestimating K. By balancing these quantities, αwill be chosen such that the probability of correctly estimating K is maximized. All results are even non-asymptotic for the normal case. Based on the aforementioned bounds, we construct asymptotically honest confidence sets for the unknown step function and its change-points. At the same time, we obtain exponential bounds for estimating the change-point locations which for example yield the minimax rate O(1/n) up to a log term. Finally, SMUCE asymptotically achieves the optimal detection rate of vanishing signals. We illustrate how dynamic programming techniques can be employed for efficient computation of estimators and confidence regions. The performance of the proposed multiscale approach is illustrated by simulations and in two cutting-edge applications from genetic engineering and photoemission spectroscopy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Extreme Value Analysis of Empirical Frame Coefficients and Implications for Denoising by Soft-Thresholding

Denoising by frame thresholding is one of the most basic and efficient methods for recovering a discrete signal or image from data that are corrupted by additive Gaussian white noise. The basic idea is to select a frame of analyzing elements that separates the data in few large coefficients due to the signal and many small coefficients mainly due to the noise ε_n. Removing all data coefficients being in magnitude below a certain threshold yields a reconstruction of the original signal. In order to properly balance the amount of noise to be removed and the relevant signal features to be kept, a precise understanding of the statistical properties of thresholding is important. For that purpose we derive the asymptotic distribution of max_{ω\in Ω_n} |<ϕ_ω^n,ε_n>| for a wide class of redundant frames (ϕ_ω^n: ω\in Ω_n}. Based on our theoretical results we give a rationale for universal extreme value thresholding techniques yielding asymptotically sharp confidence regions and smoothness estimates corresponding to prescribed significance levels. The results cover many frames used in imaging and signal recovery applications, such as redundant wavelet systems, curvelet frames, or unions of bases. We show that `generically' a standard Gumbel law results as it is known from the case of orthonormal wavelet bases. However, for specific highly redundant frames other limiting laws may occur. We indeed verify that the translation invariant wavelet transform shows a different asymptotic behaviour.

math.NA↗

arXiv2012

Multiscale Methods for Shape Constraints in Deconvolution: Confidence Statements for Qualitative Features

We derive multiscale statistics for deconvolution in order to detect qualitative features of the unknown density. An important example covered within this framework is to test for local monotonicity on all scales simultaneously. We investigate the moderately ill-posed setting, where the Fourier transform of the error density in the deconvolution model is of polynomial decay. For multiscale testing, we consider a calibration, motivated by the modulus of continuity of Brownian motion. We investigate the performance of our results from both the theoretical and simulation based point of view. A major consequence of our work is that the detection of qualitative features of a density in a deconvolution problem is a doable task although the minimax rates for pointwise estimation are very slow.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Statistical Multiresolution Estimation for Variational Imaging: With an Application in Poisson-Biophotonics

In this paper we present a spatially-adaptive method for image reconstruction that is based on the concept of statistical multiresolution estimation as introduced in [Frick K, Marnitz P, and Munk A. "Statistical multiresolution Dantzig estimation in imaging: Fundamental concepts and algorithmic framework". Electron. J. Stat., 6:231-268, 2012]. It constitutes a variational regularization technique that uses an supremum-type distance measure as data-fidelity combined with a convex cost functional. The resulting convex optimization problem is approached by a combination of an inexact alternating direction method of multipliers and Dykstra's projection algorithm. We describe a novel method for balancing data-fit and regularity that is fully automatic and allows for a sound statistical interpretation. The performance of our estimation approach is studied for various problems in imaging. Among others, this includes deconvolution problems that arise in Poisson nanoscale fluorescence microscopy.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2012

Shape Constrained Regularisation by Statistical Multiresolution for Inverse Problems: Asymptotic Analysis

This paper is concerned with a novel regularisation technique for solving linear ill-posed operator equations in Hilbert spaces from data that is corrupted by white noise. We combine convex penalty functionals with extreme-value statistics of projections of the residuals on a given set of sub-spaces in the image-space of the operator. We prove general consistency and convergence rate results in the framework of Bregman-divergences which allows for a vast range of penalty functionals. Various examples that indicate the applicability of our approach will be discussed. We will illustrate in the context of signal and image processing that the presented method constitutes a locally adaptive reconstruction method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Statistical Multiresolution Dantzig Estimation in Imaging: Fundamental Concepts and Algorithmic Framework

In this paper we are concerned with fully automatic and locally adaptive estimation of functions in a "signal + noise"-model where the regression function may additionally be blurred by a linear operator, e.g. by a convolution. To this end, we introduce a general class of statistical multiresolution estimators and develop an algorithmic framework for computing those. By this we mean estimators that are defined as solutions of convex optimization problems with supremum-type constraints. We employ a combination of the alternating direction method of multipliers with Dykstra's algorithm for computing orthogonal projections onto intersections of convex sets and prove numerical convergence. The capability of the proposed method is illustrated by various examples from imaging and signal detection.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2011

Adaptive wavelet estimation of the diffusion coefficient under additive error measurements

We study nonparametric estimation of the diffusion coefficient from discrete data, when the observations are blurred by additional noise. Such issues have been developed over the last 10 years in several application fields and in particular in high frequency financial data modelling, however mainly from a parametric and semiparametric point of view. This paper addresses the nonparametric estimation of the path of the (possibly stochastic) diffusion coefficient in a relatively general setting. By developing pre-averaging techniques combined with wavelet thresholding, we construct adaptive estimators that achieve a nearly optimal rate within a large scale of smoothness constraints of Besov type. Since the diffusion coefficient is usually genuinely random, we propose a new criterion to assess the quality of estimation; we retrieve the usual minimax theory when this approach is restricted to a deterministic diffusion coefficient. In particular, we take advantage of recent results of Reiss [33] of asymptotic equivalence between a Gaussian diffusion with additive noise and Gaussian white noise model, in order to prove a sharp lower bound.

math.ST↗

arXiv2010

Möbius deconvolution on the hyperbolic plane with application to impedance density estimation

In this paper we consider a novel statistical inverse problem on the Poincaré, or Lobachevsky, upper (complex) half plane. Here the Riemannian structure is hyperbolic and a transitive group action comes from the space of $2\times2$ real matrices of determinant one via Möbius transformations. Our approach is based on a deconvolution technique which relies on the Helgason--Fourier calculus adapted to this hyperbolic space. This gives a minimax nonparametric density estimator of a hyperbolic density that is corrupted by a random Möbius transform. A motivation for this work comes from the reconstruction of impedances of capacitors where the above scenario on the Poincaré plane exactly describes the physical system that is of statistical interest.

math.ST↗

arXiv2010

Modeling the growth of fingerprints improves matching for adolescents

We study the effect of growth on the fingerprints of adolescents, based on which we suggest a simple method to adjust for growth when trying to recover a juvenile's fingerprint in a database years later. Based on longitudinal data sets in juveniles' criminal records, we show that growth essentially leads to an isotropic rescaling, so that we can use the strong correlation between growth in stature and limbs to model the growth of fingerprints proportional to stature growth as documented in growth charts. The proposed rescaling leads to a 72% reduction of the distances between corresponding minutiae for the data set analyzed. These findings were corroborated by several verification tests. In an identification test on a database containing 3.25 million right index fingers at the Federal Criminal Police Office of Germany, the identification error rate of 20.8% was reduced to 2.1% by rescaling. The presented method is of striking simplicity and can easily be integrated into existing automated fingerprint identification systems.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2010

Nonparametric estimation of the volatility function in a high-frequency model corrupted by noise

We consider the models Y_{i,n}=\int_0^{i/n} σ(s)dW_s+τ(i/n)ε_{i,n}, and \tilde Y_{i,n}=σ(i/n)W_{i/n}+τ(i/n)ε_{i,n}, i=1,...,n, where W_t denotes a standard Brownian motion and ε_{i,n} are centered i.i.d. random variables with E(ε_{i,n}^2)=1 and finite fourth moment. Furthermore, σand τare unknown deterministic functions and W_t and (ε_{1,n},...,ε_{n,n}) are assumed to be independent processes. Based on a spectral decomposition of the covariance structures we derive series estimators for σ^2 and τ^2 and investigate their rate of convergence of the MISE in dependence of their smoothness. To this end specific basis functions and their corresponding Sobolev ellipsoids are introduced and we show that our estimators are optimal in minimax sense. Our work is motivated by microstructure noise models. Our major finding is that the microstructure noise ε_{i,n} introduces an additionally degree of ill-posedness of 1/2; irrespectively of the tail behavior of ε_{i,n}. The method is illustrated by a small numerical study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2010

Lower bounds for volatility estimation in microstructure noise models

In this paper we derive lower bounds in minimax sense for estimation of the instantaneous volatility if the diffusion type part cannot be observed directly but under some additional Gaussian noise. Three different models are considered. Our technique is based on a general inequality for Kullback-Leibler divergence of multivariate normal random variables and spectral analysis of the processes. The derived lower bounds are indeed optimal. Upper bounds can be found in Munk and Schmidt-Hieber [18]. Our major finding is that the Gaussian microstructure noise introduces an additional degree of ill-posedness for each model, respectively.

math.ST↗

arXiv2010

Locally adaptive image denoising by a statistical multiresolution criterion

We demonstrate how one can choose the smoothing parameter in image denoising by a statistical multiresolution criterion, both globally and locally. Using inhomogeneous diffusion and total variation regularization as examples for localized regularization schemes, we present an efficient method for locally adaptive image denoising. As expected, the smoothing parameter serves as an edge detector in this framework. Numerical examples illustrate the usefulness of our approach. We also present an application in confocal microscopy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2009

Consistencies and rates of convergence of jump-penalized least squares estimators

We study the asymptotics for jump-penalized least squares regression aiming at approximating a regression function by piecewise constant functions. Besides conventional consistency and convergence rates of the estimates in $L^2([0,1))$ our results cover other metrics like Skorokhod metric on the space of càdlàg functions and uniform metrics on $C([0,1])$. We will show that these estimators are in an adaptive sense rate optimal over certain classes of "approximation spaces." Special cases are the class of functions of bounded variation (piecewise) Hölder continuous functions of order $0<α\le1$ and the class of step functions with a finite but arbitrary number of jumps. In the latter setting, we will also deduce the rates known from change-point analysis for detecting the jumps. Finally, the issue of fully automatic selection of the smoothing parameter is addressed.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

P-values for classification

Let $(X,Y)$ be a random variable consisting of an observed feature vector $X\in \mathcal{X}$ and an unobserved class label $Y\in \{1,2,...,L\}$ with unknown joint distribution. In addition, let $\mathcal{D}$ be a training data set consisting of $n$ completely observed independent copies of $(X,Y)$. Usual classification procedures provide point predictors (classifiers) $\widehat{Y}(X,\mathcal{D})$ of $Y$ or estimate the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$. In order to quantify the certainty of classifying $X$ we propose to construct for each $θ=1,2,...,L$ a p-value $π_θ(X,\mathcal{D})$ for the null hypothesis that $Y=θ$, treating $Y$ temporarily as a fixed parameter. In other words, the point predictor $\widehat{Y}(X,\mathcal{D})$ is replaced with a prediction region for $Y$ with a certain confidence. We argue that (i) this approach is advantageous over traditional approaches and (ii) any reasonable classifier can be modified to yield nonparametric p-values. We discuss issues such as optimality, single use and multiple use validity, as well as computational and graphical aspects.

math.ST↗

arXiv2008

Jump estimation in inverse regression

We consider estimation of a step function $f$ from noisy observations of a deconvolution $ϕ*f$, where $ϕ$ is some bounded $L_1$-function. We use a penalized least squares estimator to reconstruct the signal $f$ from the observations, with penalty equal to the number of jumps of the reconstruction. Asymptotically, it is possible to correctly estimate the number of jumps with probability one. Given that the number of jumps is correctly estimated, we show that the corresponding parameter estimates of the jump locations and jump heights are $n^{-1/2}$ consistent and converge to a joint normal distribution with covariance structure depending on $ϕ$, and that this rate is minimax for bounded continuous kernels $ϕ$. As special case we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator in multiphase regression and generalisations thereof. In contrast to the results obtained for bounded $ϕ$, we show that for kernels with a singularity of order $O(| x|^{-α}),1/2<α<1$, a jump location can be estimated at a rate of $n^{-1/(3-2α)}$, which is again the minimax rate. We find that these rate do not depend on the spectral information of the operator rather on its localization properties in the time domain. Finally, it turns out that adaptive sampling does not improve the rate of convergence, in strict contrast to the case of direct regression.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

Scale space consistency of piecewise constant least squares estimators -- another look at the regressogram

We study the asymptotic behavior of piecewise constant least squares regression estimates, when the number of partitions of the estimate is penalized. We show that the estimator is consistent in the relevant metric if the signal is in $L^2([0,1])$, the space of càdlàg functions equipped with the Skorokhod metric or $C([0,1])$ equipped with the supremum metric. Moreover, we consider the family of estimates under a varying smoothing parameter, also called scale space. We prove convergence of the empirical scale space towards its deterministic target.

math.ST↗

arXiv2001

New statistical goodness of fit techniques in noisy inhomogeneous inverse problems - With application to the recovering of the luminosity distribution of the Milky Way

The assumption that a parametric class of functions fits the data structure sufficiently well is common in fitting curves and surfaces to regression data. One then derives a parameter estimate resulting from a least squares fit, say, and in a second step various kinds of chi^2 goodness of fit measures, to assess whether the deviation between data and estimated surface is due to random noise and not to systematic departures from the model. In this paper we show that commonly-used chi^2-measures are invalid in regression models, particularly when inhomogeneous noise is present. Instead we present a bootstrap algorithm which is applicable in problems described by noisy versions of Fredholm integral equations. of the first kind. We apply the suggested method to the problem of recovering the luminosity density in the Milky Way from data of the DIRBE experiment on board the COBE satellite.

astro-ph↗