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Ayan Kumar Ghosh

Publications and source records attributed to Ayan Kumar Ghosh.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Heat Pump Stress Detection: A Comprehensive Analysis on When2Heat Dataset

Heat pump systems are critical components in modern energy-efficient buildings, yet their operational stress detection remains challenging due to complex thermodynamic interactions and limited real-world data. This paper presents a novel Physics-Guided Deep Neural Network (PG-DNN) approach for heat pump stress classification using the When2Heat dataset, containing 131,483 samples with 656 features across 26 European countries. The methodology integrates physics-guided feature selection and class definition with a deep neural network architecture featuring 5 hidden layers and dual regularization strategies. The model achieves 78.1\% test accuracy and 78.5% validation accuracy, demonstrating significant improvements over baseline approaches: +5.0% over shallow networks, +4.0% over limited feature sets, and +2.0% over single regularization strategies. Comprehensive ablation studies validate the effectiveness of physics-guided feature selection, variable thresholding for realistic class distribution, and cross-country energy pattern analysis. The proposed system provides a production-ready solution for heat pump stress detection with 181,348 parameters and 720 seconds training time on AMD Ryzen 9 7950X with RTX 4080 hardware.

cs.LG

Hotel Booking Cancellation Prediction Using Applied Bayesian Models

This study applies Bayesian models to predict hotel booking cancellations, a key challenge affecting resource allocation, revenue, and customer satisfaction in the hospitality industry. Using a Kaggle dataset with 36,285 observations and 17 features, Bayesian Logistic Regression and Beta-Binomial models were implemented. The logistic model, applied to 12 features and 5,000 randomly selected observations, outperformed the Beta-Binomial model in predictive accuracy. Key predictors included the number of adults, children, stay duration, lead time, car parking space, room type, and special requests. Model evaluation using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV) confirmed strong alignment between observed and predicted outcomes, demonstrating the model's robustness. Special requests and parking availability were found to be the strongest predictors of cancellation. This Bayesian approach provides a valuable tool for improving booking management and operational efficiency in the hotel industry.

cs.LG