arXiv subjects

Benjamin Van Roy

Publications and source records attributed to Benjamin Van Roy.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Reinforcement Learning, Bit by Bit

Reinforcement learning agents have demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. Data efficiency poses an impediment to carrying this success over to real environments. The design of data-efficient agents calls for a deeper understanding of information acquisition and representation. We discuss concepts and regret analysis that together offer principled guidance. This line of thinking sheds light on questions of what information to seek, how to seek that information, and what information to retain. To illustrate concepts, we design simple agents that build on them and present computational results that highlight data efficiency.

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arXiv2023

Ensemble Sampling

Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applications for which Thompson sampling is viable. We establish a theoretical basis that supports the approach and present computational results that offer further insight.

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arXiv2023

An Information-Theoretic Framework for Supervised Learning

Each year, deep learning demonstrates new and improved empirical results with deeper and wider neural networks. Meanwhile, with existing theoretical frameworks, it is difficult to analyze networks deeper than two layers without resorting to counting parameters or encountering sample complexity bounds that are exponential in depth. Perhaps it may be fruitful to try to analyze modern machine learning under a different lens. In this paper, we propose a novel information-theoretic framework with its own notions of regret and sample complexity for analyzing the data requirements of machine learning. With our framework, we first work through some classical examples such as scalar estimation and linear regression to build intuition and introduce general techniques. Then, we use the framework to study the sample complexity of learning from data generated by deep neural networks with ReLU activation units. For a particular prior distribution on weights, we establish sample complexity bounds that are simultaneously width independent and linear in depth. This prior distribution gives rise to high-dimensional latent representations that, with high probability, admit reasonably accurate low-dimensional approximations. We conclude by corroborating our theoretical results with experimental analysis of random single-hidden-layer neural networks.

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arXiv2023

Inclusive Artificial Intelligence

Prevailing methods for assessing and comparing generative AIs incentivize responses that serve a hypothetical representative individual. Evaluating models in these terms presumes homogeneous preferences across the population and engenders selection of agglomerative AIs, which fail to represent the diverse range of interests across individuals. We propose an alternative evaluation method that instead prioritizes inclusive AIs, which provably retain the requisite knowledge not only for subsequent response customization to particular segments of the population but also for utility-maximizing decisions.

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arXiv2023

An Analysis of Ensemble Sampling

Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a regret bound that ensures desirable behavior when ensemble sampling is applied to the linear bandit problem. This represents the first rigorous regret analysis of ensemble sampling and is made possible by leveraging information-theoretic concepts and novel analytic techniques that may prove useful beyond the scope of this paper.

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arXiv2023

Approximate Thompson Sampling via Epistemic Neural Networks

Thompson sampling (TS) is a popular heuristic for action selection, but it requires sampling from a posterior distribution. Unfortunately, this can become computationally intractable in complex environments, such as those modeled using neural networks. Approximate posterior samples can produce effective actions, but only if they reasonably approximate joint predictive distributions of outputs across inputs. Notably, accuracy of marginal predictive distributions does not suffice. Epistemic neural networks (ENNs) are designed to produce accurate joint predictive distributions. We compare a range of ENNs through computational experiments that assess their performance in approximating TS across bandit and reinforcement learning environments. The results indicate that ENNs serve this purpose well and illustrate how the quality of joint predictive distributions drives performance. Further, we demonstrate that the \textit{epinet} -- a small additive network that estimates uncertainty -- matches the performance of large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. This enables effective application of TS with computation that scales gracefully to complex environments.

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arXiv2022

The Neural Testbed: Evaluating Joint Predictions

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open-source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the testbed assesses agents not only on the quality of their marginal predictions per input, but also on their joint predictions across many inputs. We evaluate a range of agents using a simple neural network data generating process. Our results indicate that some popular Bayesian deep learning agents do not fare well with joint predictions, even when they can produce accurate marginal predictions. We also show that the quality of joint predictions drives performance in downstream decision tasks. We find these results are robust across choice a wide range of generative models, and highlight the practical importance of joint predictions to the community.

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arXiv2022

Deciding What to Model: Value-Equivalent Sampling for Reinforcement Learning

The quintessential model-based reinforcement-learning agent iteratively refines its estimates or prior beliefs about the true underlying model of the environment. Recent empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning with function approximation, however, eschew the true model in favor of a surrogate that, while ignoring various facets of the environment, still facilitates effective planning over behaviors. Recently formalized as the value equivalence principle, this algorithmic technique is perhaps unavoidable as real-world reinforcement learning demands consideration of a simple, computationally-bounded agent interacting with an overwhelmingly complex environment, whose underlying dynamics likely exceed the agent's capacity for representation. In this work, we consider the scenario where agent limitations may entirely preclude identifying an exactly value-equivalent model, immediately giving rise to a trade-off between identifying a model that is simple enough to learn while only incurring bounded sub-optimality. To address this problem, we introduce an algorithm that, using rate-distortion theory, iteratively computes an approximately-value-equivalent, lossy compression of the environment which an agent may feasibly target in lieu of the true model. We prove an information-theoretic, Bayesian regret bound for our algorithm that holds for any finite-horizon, episodic sequential decision-making problem. Crucially, our regret bound can be expressed in one of two possible forms, providing a performance guarantee for finding either the simplest model that achieves a desired sub-optimality gap or, alternatively, the best model given a limit on agent capacity.

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arXiv2022

On Rate-Distortion Theory in Capacity-Limited Cognition & Reinforcement Learning

Throughout the cognitive-science literature, there is widespread agreement that decision-making agents operating in the real world do so under limited information-processing capabilities and without access to unbounded cognitive or computational resources. Prior work has drawn inspiration from this fact and leveraged an information-theoretic model of such behaviors or policies as communication channels operating under a bounded rate constraint. Meanwhile, a parallel line of work also capitalizes on the same principles from rate-distortion theory to formalize capacity-limited decision making through the notion of a learning target, which facilitates Bayesian regret bounds for provably-efficient learning algorithms. In this paper, we aim to elucidate this latter perspective by presenting a brief survey of these information-theoretic models of capacity-limited decision making in biological and artificial agents.

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arXiv2022

Is Stochastic Gradient Descent Near Optimal?

The success of neural networks over the past decade has established them as effective models for many relevant data generating processes. Statistical theory on neural networks indicates graceful scaling of sample complexity. For example, Joen & Van Roy (arXiv:2203.00246) demonstrate that, when data is generated by a ReLU teacher network with $W$ parameters, an optimal learner needs only $\tilde{O}(W/ε)$ samples to attain expected error $ε$. However, existing computational theory suggests that, even for single-hidden-layer teacher networks, to attain small error for all such teacher networks, the computation required to achieve this sample complexity is intractable. In this work, we fit single-hidden-layer neural networks to data generated by single-hidden-layer ReLU teacher networks with parameters drawn from a natural distribution. We demonstrate that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with automated width selection attains small expected error with a number of samples and total number of queries both nearly linear in the input dimension and width. This suggests that SGD nearly achieves the information-theoretic sample complexity bounds of Joen & Van Roy (arXiv:2203.00246) in a computationally efficient manner. An important difference between our positive empirical results and the negative theoretical results is that the latter address worst-case error of deterministic algorithms, while our analysis centers on expected error of a stochastic algorithm.

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arXiv2022

Robustness of Epinets against Distributional Shifts

Recent work introduced the epinet as a new approach to uncertainty modeling in deep learning. An epinet is a small neural network added to traditional neural networks, which, together, can produce predictive distributions. In particular, using an epinet can greatly improve the quality of joint predictions across multiple inputs, a measure of how well a neural network knows what it does not know. In this paper, we examine whether epinets can offer similar advantages under distributional shifts. We find that, across ImageNet-A/O/C, epinets generally improve robustness metrics. Moreover, these improvements are more significant than those afforded by even very large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational costs. However, these improvements are relatively small compared to the outstanding issues in distributionally-robust deep learning. Epinets may be a useful tool in the toolbox, but they are far from the complete solution.

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arXiv2022

Ensembles for Uncertainty Estimation: Benefits of Prior Functions and Bootstrapping

In machine learning, an agent needs to estimate uncertainty to efficiently explore and adapt and to make effective decisions. A common approach to uncertainty estimation maintains an ensemble of models. In recent years, several approaches have been proposed for training ensembles, and conflicting views prevail with regards to the importance of various ingredients of these approaches. In this paper, we aim to address the benefits of two ingredients -- prior functions and bootstrapping -- which have come into question. We show that prior functions can significantly improve an ensemble agent's joint predictions across inputs and that bootstrapping affords additional benefits if the signal-to-noise ratio varies across inputs. Our claims are justified by both theoretical and experimental results.

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arXiv2022

Between Rate-Distortion Theory & Value Equivalence in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

The quintessential model-based reinforcement-learning agent iteratively refines its estimates or prior beliefs about the true underlying model of the environment. Recent empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning with function approximation, however, eschew the true model in favor of a surrogate that, while ignoring various facets of the environment, still facilitates effective planning over behaviors. Recently formalized as the value equivalence principle, this algorithmic technique is perhaps unavoidable as real-world reinforcement learning demands consideration of a simple, computationally-bounded agent interacting with an overwhelmingly complex environment. In this work, we entertain an extreme scenario wherein some combination of immense environment complexity and limited agent capacity entirely precludes identifying an exactly value-equivalent model. In light of this, we embrace a notion of approximate value equivalence and introduce an algorithm for incrementally synthesizing simple and useful approximations of the environment from which an agent might still recover near-optimal behavior. Crucially, we recognize the information-theoretic nature of this lossy environment compression problem and use the appropriate tools of rate-distortion theory to make mathematically precise how value equivalence can lend tractability to otherwise intractable sequential decision-making problems.

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arXiv2022

From Predictions to Decisions: The Importance of Joint Predictive Distributions

A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we show that for a broad class of decision problems, accurate joint predictions are required to deliver good performance. In particular, we establish several results pertaining to combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits to elucidate the essential role of joint predictive distributions. Our treatment of multi-armed bandits introduces an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and analytic techniques that lead to a new kind of regret bound.

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arXiv2022

Evaluating High-Order Predictive Distributions in Deep Learning

Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive distributions with inputs sampled i.i.d. from the testing distribution. With low-dimensional inputs, these methods distinguish agents that effectively estimate uncertainty from those that do not. We establish that the predictive distribution order required for such differentiation increases greatly with input dimension, rendering these methods impractical. To accommodate high-dimensional inputs, we introduce \textit{dyadic sampling}, which focuses on predictive distributions associated with random \textit{pairs} of inputs. We demonstrate that this approach efficiently distinguishes agents in high-dimensional examples involving simple logistic regression as well as complex synthetic and empirical data.

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arXiv2022

Gaussian Imagination in Bandit Learning

Assuming distributions are Gaussian often facilitates computations that are otherwise intractable. We study the performance of an agent that attains a bounded information ratio with respect to a bandit environment with a Gaussian prior distribution and a Gaussian likelihood function when applied instead to a Bernoulli bandit. Relative to an information-theoretic bound on the Bayesian regret the agent would incur when interacting with the Gaussian bandit, we bound the increase in regret when the agent interacts with the Bernoulli bandit. If the Gaussian prior distribution and likelihood function are sufficiently diffuse, this increase grows at a rate which is at most linear in the square-root of the time horizon, and thus the per-timestep increase vanishes. Our results formalize the folklore that so-called Bayesian agents remain effective when instantiated with diffuse misspecified distributions.

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arXiv2021

The Value of Information When Deciding What to Learn

All sequential decision-making agents explore so as to acquire knowledge about a particular target. It is often the responsibility of the agent designer to construct this target which, in rich and complex environments, constitutes a onerous burden; without full knowledge of the environment itself, a designer may forge a sub-optimal learning target that poorly balances the amount of information an agent must acquire to identify the target against the target's associated performance shortfall. While recent work has developed a connection between learning targets and rate-distortion theory to address this challenge and empower agents that decide what to learn in an automated fashion, the proposed algorithm does not optimally tackle the equally important challenge of efficient information acquisition. In this work, building upon the seminal design principle of information-directed sampling (Russo & Van Roy, 2014), we address this shortcoming directly to couple optimal information acquisition with the optimal design of learning targets. Along the way, we offer new insights into learning targets from the literature on rate-distortion theory before turning to empirical results that confirm the value of information when deciding what to learn.

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arXiv2021

Simple Agent, Complex Environment: Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Agent States

We design a simple reinforcement learning (RL) agent that implements an optimistic version of $Q$-learning and establish through regret analysis that this agent can operate with some level of competence in any environment. While we leverage concepts from the literature on provably efficient RL, we consider a general agent-environment interface and provide a novel agent design and analysis. This level of generality positions our results to inform the design of future agents for operation in complex real environments. We establish that, as time progresses, our agent performs competitively relative to policies that require longer times to evaluate. The time it takes to approach asymptotic performance is polynomial in the complexity of the agent's state representation and the time required to evaluate the best policy that the agent can represent. Notably, there is no dependence on the complexity of the environment. The ultimate per-period performance loss of the agent is bounded by a constant multiple of a measure of distortion introduced by the agent's state representation. This work is the first to establish that an algorithm approaches this asymptotic condition within a tractable time frame.

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