arXiv subjects

Bernhard Schölkopf

Publications and source records attributed to Bernhard Schölkopf.

At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Function Contrastive Learning of Transferable Meta-Representations

Meta-learning algorithms adapt quickly to new tasks that are drawn from the same task distribution as the training tasks. The mechanism leading to fast adaptation is the conditioning of a downstream predictive model on the inferred representation of the task's underlying data generative process, or \emph{function}. This \emph{meta-representation}, which is computed from a few observed examples of the underlying function, is learned jointly with the predictive model. In this work, we study the implications of this joint training on the transferability of the meta-representations. Our goal is to learn meta-representations that are robust to noise in the data and facilitate solving a wide range of downstream tasks that share the same underlying functions. To this end, we propose a decoupled encoder-decoder approach to supervised meta-learning, where the encoder is trained with a contrastive objective to find a good representation of the underlying function. In particular, our training scheme is driven by the self-supervision signal indicating whether two sets of examples stem from the same function. Our experiments on a number of synthetic and real-world datasets show that the representations we obtain outperform strong baselines in terms of downstream performance and noise robustness, even when these baselines are trained in an end-to-end manner.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

On Disentangled Representations Learned From Correlated Data

The focus of disentanglement approaches has been on identifying independent factors of variation in data. However, the causal variables underlying real-world observations are often not statistically independent. In this work, we bridge the gap to real-world scenarios by analyzing the behavior of the most prominent disentanglement approaches on correlated data in a large-scale empirical study (including 4260 models). We show and quantify that systematically induced correlations in the dataset are being learned and reflected in the latent representations, which has implications for downstream applications of disentanglement such as fairness. We also demonstrate how to resolve these latent correlations, either using weak supervision during training or by post-hoc correcting a pre-trained model with a small number of labels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Finding Stable Matchings in PhD Markets with Consistent Preferences and Cooperative Partners

We introduce a new algorithm for finding stable matchings in multi-sided matching markets. Our setting is motivated by a PhD market of students, advisors, and co-advisors, and can be generalized to supply chain networks viewed as $n$-sided markets. In the three-sided PhD market, students primarily care about advisors and then about co-advisors (consistent preferences), while advisors and co-advisors have preferences over students only (hence they are cooperative). A student must be matched to one advisor and one co-advisor, or not at all. In contrast to previous work, advisor-student and student-co-advisor pairs may not be mutually acceptable (e.g., a student may not want to work with an advisor or co-advisor and vice versa). We show that three-sided stable matchings always exist, and present an algorithm that, in time quadratic in the market size (up to log factors), finds a three-sided stable matching using any two-sided stable matching algorithm as matching engine. We illustrate the challenges that arise when not all advisor-co-advisor pairs are compatible. We then generalize our algorithm to $n$-sided markets with quotas and show how they can model supply chain networks. Finally, we show how our algorithm outperforms the baseline given by [Danilov, 2003] in terms of both producing a stable matching and a larger number of matches on a synthetic dataset.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Backward-Compatible Prediction Updates: A Probabilistic Approach

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly improving state-of-the-art models. While new improved models develop at a fast pace, downstream tasks vary more slowly or stay constant. Assume that we have a large unlabelled data set for which we want to maintain accurate predictions. Whenever a new and presumably better ML models becomes available, we encounter two problems: (i) given a limited budget, which data points should be re-evaluated using the new model?; and (ii) if the new predictions differ from the current ones, should we update? Problem (i) is about compute cost, which matters for very large data sets and models. Problem (ii) is about maintaining consistency of the predictions, which can be highly relevant for downstream applications; our demand is to avoid negative flips, i.e., changing correct to incorrect predictions. In this paper, we formalize the Prediction Update Problem and present an efficient probabilistic approach as answer to the above questions. In extensive experiments on standard classification benchmark data sets, we show that our method outperforms alternative strategies along key metrics for backward-compatible prediction updates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Shallow Representation is Deep: Learning Uncertainty-aware and Worst-case Random Feature Dynamics

Random features is a powerful universal function approximator that inherits the theoretical rigor of kernel methods and can scale up to modern learning tasks. This paper views uncertain system models as unknown or uncertain smooth functions in universal reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. By directly approximating the one-step dynamics function using random features with uncertain parameters, which are equivalent to a shallow Bayesian neural network, we then view the whole dynamical system as a multi-layer neural network. Exploiting the structure of Hamiltonian dynamics, we show that finding worst-case dynamics realizations using Pontryagin's minimum principle is equivalent to performing the Frank-Wolfe algorithm on the deep net. Various numerical experiments on dynamics learning showcase the capacity of our modeling methodology.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Simpson's paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates: a mediation analysis of age-related causal effects

We point out an instantiation of Simpson's paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs): comparing a large-scale study from China (17 Feb) with early reports from Italy (9 Mar), we find that CFRs are lower in Italy for every age group, but higher overall. This phenomenon is explained by a stark difference in case demographic between the two countries. Using this as a motivating example, we introduce basic concepts from mediation analysis and show how these can be used to quantify different direct and indirect effects when assuming a coarse-grained causal graph involving country, age, and case fatality. We curate an age-stratified CFR dataset with >750k cases and conduct a case study, investigating total, direct, and indirect (age-mediated) causal effects between different countries and at different points in time. This allows us to separate age-related effects from others unrelated to age and facilitates a more transparent comparison of CFRs across countries at different stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Using longitudinal data from Italy, we discover a sign reversal of the direct causal effect in mid-March which temporally aligns with the reported collapse of the healthcare system in parts of the country. Moreover, we find that direct and indirect effects across 132 pairs of countries are only weakly correlated, suggesting that a country's policy and case demographic may be largely unrelated. We point out limitations and extensions for future work, and, finally, discuss the role of causal reasoning in the broader context of using AI to combat the Covid-19 pandemic.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Algorithmic Recourse in Partially and Fully Confounded Settings Through Bounding Counterfactual Effects

Algorithmic recourse aims to provide actionable recommendations to individuals to obtain a more favourable outcome from an automated decision-making system. As it involves reasoning about interventions performed in the physical world, recourse is fundamentally a causal problem. Existing methods compute the effect of recourse actions using a causal model learnt from data under the assumption of no hidden confounding and modelling assumptions such as additive noise. Building on the seminal work of Balke and Pearl (1994), we propose an alternative approach for discrete random variables which relaxes these assumptions and allows for unobserved confounding and arbitrary structural equations. The proposed approach only requires specification of the causal graph and confounding structure and bounds the expected counterfactual effect of recourse actions. If the lower bound is above a certain threshold, i.e., on the other side of the decision boundary, recourse is guaranteed in expectation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian Quadrature on Riemannian Data Manifolds

Riemannian manifolds provide a principled way to model nonlinear geometric structure inherent in data. A Riemannian metric on said manifolds determines geometry-aware shortest paths and provides the means to define statistical models accordingly. However, these operations are typically computationally demanding. To ease this computational burden, we advocate probabilistic numerical methods for Riemannian statistics. In particular, we focus on Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to numerically compute integrals over normal laws on Riemannian manifolds learned from data. In this task, each function evaluation relies on the solution of an expensive initial value problem. We show that by leveraging both prior knowledge and an active exploration scheme, BQ significantly reduces the number of required evaluations and thus outperforms Monte Carlo methods on a wide range of integration problems. As a concrete application, we highlight the merits of adopting Riemannian geometry with our proposed framework on a nonlinear dataset from molecular dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Conditional Distributional Treatment Effect with Kernel Conditional Mean Embeddings and U-Statistic Regression

We propose to analyse the conditional distributional treatment effect (CoDiTE), which, in contrast to the more common conditional average treatment effect (CATE), is designed to encode a treatment's distributional aspects beyond the mean. We first introduce a formal definition of the CoDiTE associated with a distance function between probability measures. Then we discuss the CoDiTE associated with the maximum mean discrepancy via kernel conditional mean embeddings, which, coupled with a hypothesis test, tells us whether there is any conditional distributional effect of the treatment. Finally, we investigate what kind of conditional distributional effect the treatment has, both in an exploratory manner via the conditional witness function, and in a quantitative manner via U-statistic regression, generalising the CATE to higher-order moments. Experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the merits of our approach.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Instrument Space Selection for Kernel Maximum Moment Restriction

Kernel maximum moment restriction (KMMR) recently emerges as a popular framework for instrumental variable (IV) based conditional moment restriction (CMR) models with important applications in conditional moment (CM) testing and parameter estimation for IV regression and proximal causal learning. The effectiveness of this framework, however, depends critically on the choice of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) chosen as a space of instruments. In this work, we presents a systematic way to select the instrument space for parameter estimation based on a principle of the least identifiable instrument space (LIIS) that identifies model parameters with the least space complexity. Our selection criterion combines two distinct objectives to determine such an optimal space: (i) a test criterion to check identifiability; (ii) an information criterion based on the effective dimension of RKHSs as a complexity measure. We analyze the consistency of our method in determining the LIIS, and demonstrate its effectiveness for parameter estimation via simulations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Fast and Slow Learning of Recurrent Independent Mechanisms

Decomposing knowledge into interchangeable pieces promises a generalization advantage when there are changes in distribution. A learning agent interacting with its environment is likely to be faced with situations requiring novel combinations of existing pieces of knowledge. We hypothesize that such a decomposition of knowledge is particularly relevant for being able to generalize in a systematic manner to out-of-distribution changes. To study these ideas, we propose a particular training framework in which we assume that the pieces of knowledge an agent needs and its reward function are stationary and can be re-used across tasks. An attention mechanism dynamically selects which modules can be adapted to the current task, and the parameters of the selected modules are allowed to change quickly as the learner is confronted with variations in what it experiences, while the parameters of the attention mechanisms act as stable, slowly changing, meta-parameters. We focus on pieces of knowledge captured by an ensemble of modules sparsely communicating with each other via a bottleneck of attention. We find that meta-learning the modular aspects of the proposed system greatly helps in achieving faster adaptation in a reinforcement learning setup involving navigation in a partially observed grid world with image-level input. We also find that reversing the role of parameters and meta-parameters does not work nearly as well, suggesting a particular role for fast adaptation of the dynamically selected modules.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

MRzero -- Fully automated discovery of MRI sequences using supervised learning

Purpose: A supervised learning framework is proposed to automatically generate MR sequences and corresponding reconstruction based on the target contrast of interest. Combined with a flexible, task-driven cost function this allows for an efficient exploration of novel MR sequence strategies. Methods: The scanning and reconstruction process is simulated end-to-end in terms of RF events, gradient moment events in x and y, and delay times, acting on the input model spin system given in terms of proton density, T1 and T2, and $Δ$B0. As a proof of concept, we use both conventional MR images and T1 maps as targets and optimize from scratch using the loss defined by data fidelity, SAR penalty, and scan time. Results: In a first attempt, \textit{MRzero} learns gradient and RF events from zero, and is able to generate a target image produced by a conventional gradient echo sequence. Using a neural network within the reconstruction module allows arbitrary targets to be learned successfully. Experiments could be translated to image acquisition at the real system (3T Siemens, PRISMA) and could be verified in the measurements of phantoms and a human brain \textit{in vivo}. Conclusions: Automated MR sequence generation is possible based on differentiable Bloch equation simulations and a supervised learning approach.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2021

Pyfectious: An individual-level simulator to discover optimal containment polices for epidemic diseases

Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based on compartment models that divide people into a few subsets and simulate the dynamics among those subsets using hypothesized differential equations. However, these models lack the requisite granularity to study the effect of intelligent policies that influence every individual in a particular way. In this work, we introduce a simulator software capable of modeling a population structure and controlling the disease's propagation at an individualistic level. In order to estimate the confidence of the conclusions drawn from the simulator, we employ a comprehensive probabilistic approach where the entire population is constructed as a hierarchical random variable. This approach makes the inferred conclusions more robust against sampling artifacts and gives confidence bounds for decisions based on the simulation results. To showcase potential applications, the simulator parameters are set based on the formal statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcome of a wide range of control measures is investigated. Furthermore, the simulator is used as the environment of a reinforcement learning problem to find the optimal policies to control the pandemic. The obtained experimental results indicate the simulator's adaptability and capacity in making sound predictions and a successful policy derivation example based on real-world data. As an exemplary application, our results show that the proposed policy discovery method can lead to control measures that produce significantly fewer infected individuals in the population and protect the health system against saturation.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

On the Transfer of Disentangled Representations in Realistic Settings

Learning meaningful representations that disentangle the underlying structure of the data generating process is considered to be of key importance in machine learning. While disentangled representations were found to be useful for diverse tasks such as abstract reasoning and fair classification, their scalability and real-world impact remain questionable. We introduce a new high-resolution dataset with 1M simulated images and over 1,800 annotated real-world images of the same setup. In contrast to previous work, this new dataset exhibits correlations, a complex underlying structure, and allows to evaluate transfer to unseen simulated and real-world settings where the encoder i) remains in distribution or ii) is out of distribution. We propose new architectures in order to scale disentangled representation learning to realistic high-resolution settings and conduct a large-scale empirical study of disentangled representations on this dataset. We observe that disentanglement is a good predictor for out-of-distribution (OOD) task performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Two-Sided Matching Markets in the ELLIS 2020 PhD Program

The ELLIS PhD program is a European initiative that supports excellent young researchers by connecting them to leading researchers in AI. In particular, PhD students are supervised by two advisors from different countries: an advisor and a co-advisor. In this work we summarize the procedure that, in its final step, matches students to advisors in the ELLIS 2020 PhD program. The steps of the procedure are based on the extensive literature of two-sided matching markets and the college admissions problem [Knuth and De Bruijn, 1997, Gale and Shapley, 1962, Rothand Sotomayor, 1992]. We introduce PolyGS, an algorithm for the case of two-sided markets with quotas on both sides (also known as many-to-many markets) which we use throughout the selection procedure of pre-screening, interview matching and final matching with advisors. The algorithm returns a stable matching in the sense that no unmatched persons prefer to be matched together rather than with their current partners (given their indicated preferences). Roth [1984] gives evidence that only stable matchings are likely to be adhered to over time. Additionally, the matching is student-optimal. Preferences are constructed based on the rankings each side gives to the other side and the overlaps of research fields. We present and discuss the matchings that the algorithm produces in the ELLIS 2020 PhD program.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

A prior-based approximate latent Riemannian metric

Stochastic generative models enable us to capture the geometric structure of a data manifold lying in a high dimensional space through a Riemannian metric in the latent space. However, its practical use is rather limited mainly due to inevitable complexity. In this work we propose a surrogate conformal Riemannian metric in the latent space of a generative model that is simple, efficient and robust. This metric is based on a learnable prior that we propose to learn using a basic energy-based model. We theoretically analyze the behavior of the proposed metric and show that it is sensible to use in practice. We demonstrate experimentally the efficiency and robustness, as well as the behavior of the new approximate metric. Also, we show the applicability of the proposed methodology for data analysis in the life sciences.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

A survey of algorithmic recourse: definitions, formulations, solutions, and prospects

Machine learning is increasingly used to inform decision-making in sensitive situations where decisions have consequential effects on individuals' lives. In these settings, in addition to requiring models to be accurate and robust, socially relevant values such as fairness, privacy, accountability, and explainability play an important role for the adoption and impact of said technologies. In this work, we focus on algorithmic recourse, which is concerned with providing explanations and recommendations to individuals who are unfavourably treated by automated decision-making systems. We first perform an extensive literature review, and align the efforts of many authors by presenting unified definitions, formulations, and solutions to recourse. Then, we provide an overview of the prospective research directions towards which the community may engage, challenging existing assumptions and making explicit connections to other ethical challenges such as security, privacy, and fairness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Kernel Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose kernel distributionally robust optimization (Kernel DRO) using insights from the robust optimization theory and functional analysis. Our method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to construct a wide range of convex ambiguity sets, which can be generalized to sets based on integral probability metrics and finite-order moment bounds. This perspective unifies multiple existing robust and stochastic optimization methods. We prove a theorem that generalizes the classical duality in the mathematical problem of moments. Enabled by this theorem, we reformulate the maximization with respect to measures in DRO into the dual program that searches for RKHS functions. Using universal RKHSs, the theorem applies to a broad class of loss functions, lifting common limitations such as polynomial losses and knowledge of the Lipschitz constant. We then establish a connection between DRO and stochastic optimization with expectation constraints. Finally, we propose practical algorithms based on both batch convex solvers and stochastic functional gradient, which apply to general optimization and machine learning tasks.

math.OC↗