arXiv subjects

Bernhard Schölkopf

Publications and source records attributed to Bernhard Schölkopf.

At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Towards Causal Representation Learning

The two fields of machine learning and graphical causality arose and developed separately. However, there is now cross-pollination and increasing interest in both fields to benefit from the advances of the other. In the present paper, we review fundamental concepts of causal inference and relate them to crucial open problems of machine learning, including transfer and generalization, thereby assaying how causality can contribute to modern machine learning research. This also applies in the opposite direction: we note that most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables are given. A central problem for AI and causality is, thus, causal representation learning, the discovery of high-level causal variables from low-level observations. Finally, we delineate some implications of causality for machine learning and propose key research areas at the intersection of both communities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Assaying Large-scale Testing Models to Interpret COVID-19 Case Numbers

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on competing hypotheses regarding this link, thereby providing different prevalence estimates based on case numbers, and validate them by predicting SARS-CoV-2-attributed death rate trajectories. Assuming that individuals were tested based solely on a predefined risk of being infectious implies the absolute case numbers reflect the prevalence, but turned out to be a poor predictor, consistently overestimating growth rates at the beginning of two COVID-19 epidemic waves. In contrast, assuming that testing capacity is fully exploited performs better. This leads to using the percent-positive rate as a more robust indicator of epidemic dynamics, however we find it is subject to a saturation phenomenon that needs to be accounted for as the number of tests becomes larger.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

TriFinger: An Open-Source Robot for Learning Dexterity

Dexterous object manipulation remains an open problem in robotics, despite the rapid progress in machine learning during the past decade. We argue that a hindrance is the high cost of experimentation on real systems, in terms of both time and money. We address this problem by proposing an open-source robotic platform which can safely operate without human supervision. The hardware is inexpensive (about \SI{5000}[\$]{}) yet highly dynamic, robust, and capable of complex interaction with external objects. The software operates at 1-kilohertz and performs safety checks to prevent the hardware from breaking. The easy-to-use front-end (in C++ and Python) is suitable for real-time control as well as deep reinforcement learning. In addition, the software framework is largely robot-agnostic and can hence be used independently of the hardware proposed herein. Finally, we illustrate the potential of the proposed platform through a number of experiments, including real-time optimal control, deep reinforcement learning from scratch, throwing, and writing.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2020

Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Counterfactual-Based Data Augmentation

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are available for each patient, and patients may show different responses to the same treatment, impeding the application of current RL algorithms to learn optimal policies. To address the issues of mechanism heterogeneity and related data scarcity, we propose a data-efficient RL algorithm that exploits structural causal models (SCMs) to model the state dynamics, which are estimated by leveraging both commonalities and differences across subjects. The learned SCM enables us to counterfactually reason what would have happened had another treatment been taken. It helps avoid real (possibly risky) exploration and mitigates the issue that limited experiences lead to biased policies. We propose counterfactual RL algorithms to learn both population-level and individual-level policies. We show that counterfactual outcomes are identifiable under mild conditions and that Q- learning on the counterfactual-based augmented data set converges to the optimal value function. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Kernel Mean Embedding of Distributions: A Review and Beyond

A Hilbert space embedding of a distribution---in short, a kernel mean embedding---has recently emerged as a powerful tool for machine learning and inference. The basic idea behind this framework is to map distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) in which the whole arsenal of kernel methods can be extended to probability measures. It can be viewed as a generalization of the original "feature map" common to support vector machines (SVMs) and other kernel methods. While initially closely associated with the latter, it has meanwhile found application in fields ranging from kernel machines and probabilistic modeling to statistical inference, causal discovery, and deep learning. The goal of this survey is to give a comprehensive review of existing work and recent advances in this research area, and to discuss the most challenging issues and open problems that could lead to new research directions. The survey begins with a brief introduction to the RKHS and positive definite kernels which forms the backbone of this survey, followed by a thorough discussion of the Hilbert space embedding of marginal distributions, theoretical guarantees, and a review of its applications. The embedding of distributions enables us to apply RKHS methods to probability measures which prompts a wide range of applications such as kernel two-sample testing, independent testing, and learning on distributional data. Next, we discuss the Hilbert space embedding for conditional distributions, give theoretical insights, and review some applications. The conditional mean embedding enables us to perform sum, product, and Bayes' rules---which are ubiquitous in graphical model, probabilistic inference, and reinforcement learning---in a non-parametric way. We then discuss relationships between this framework and other related areas. Lastly, we give some suggestions on future research directions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Physically constrained causal noise models for high-contrast imaging of exoplanets

The detection of exoplanets in high-contrast imaging (HCI) data hinges on post-processing methods to remove spurious light from the host star. So far, existing methods for this task hardly utilize any of the available domain knowledge about the problem explicitly. We propose a new approach to HCI post-processing based on a modified half-sibling regression scheme, and show how we use this framework to combine machine learning with existing scientific domain knowledge. On three real data sets, we demonstrate that the resulting system performs clearly better (both visually and in terms of the SNR) than one of the currently leading algorithms. If further studies can confirm these results, our method could have the potential to allow significant discoveries of exoplanets both in new and archival data.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

CausalWorld: A Robotic Manipulation Benchmark for Causal Structure and Transfer Learning

Despite recent successes of reinforcement learning (RL), it remains a challenge for agents to transfer learned skills to related environments. To facilitate research addressing this problem, we propose CausalWorld, a benchmark for causal structure and transfer learning in a robotic manipulation environment. The environment is a simulation of an open-source robotic platform, hence offering the possibility of sim-to-real transfer. Tasks consist of constructing 3D shapes from a given set of blocks - inspired by how children learn to build complex structures. The key strength of CausalWorld is that it provides a combinatorial family of such tasks with common causal structure and underlying factors (including, e.g., robot and object masses, colors, sizes). The user (or the agent) may intervene on all causal variables, which allows for fine-grained control over how similar different tasks (or task distributions) are. One can thus easily define training and evaluation distributions of a desired difficulty level, targeting a specific form of generalization (e.g., only changes in appearance or object mass). Further, this common parametrization facilitates defining curricula by interpolating between an initial and a target task. While users may define their own task distributions, we present eight meaningful distributions as concrete benchmarks, ranging from simple to very challenging, all of which require long-horizon planning as well as precise low-level motor control. Finally, we provide baseline results for a subset of these tasks on distinct training curricula and corresponding evaluation protocols, verifying the feasibility of the tasks in this benchmark.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2020

Neural Lyapunov Redesign

Learning controllers merely based on a performance metric has been proven effective in many physical and non-physical tasks in both control theory and reinforcement learning. However, in practice, the controller must guarantee some notion of safety to ensure that it does not harm either the agent or the environment. Stability is a crucial notion of safety, whose violation can certainly cause unsafe behaviors. Lyapunov functions are effective tools to assess stability in nonlinear dynamical systems. In this paper, we combine an improving Lyapunov function with automatic controller synthesis in an iterative fashion to obtain control policies with large safe regions. We propose a two-player collaborative algorithm that alternates between estimating a Lyapunov function and deriving a controller that gradually enlarges the stability region of the closed-loop system. We provide theoretical results on the class of systems that can be treated with the proposed algorithm and empirically evaluate the effectiveness of our method using an exemplary dynamical system.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Recurrent Independent Mechanisms

Learning modular structures which reflect the dynamics of the environment can lead to better generalization and robustness to changes which only affect a few of the underlying causes. We propose Recurrent Independent Mechanisms (RIMs), a new recurrent architecture in which multiple groups of recurrent cells operate with nearly independent transition dynamics, communicate only sparingly through the bottleneck of attention, and are only updated at time steps where they are most relevant. We show that this leads to specialization amongst the RIMs, which in turn allows for dramatically improved generalization on tasks where some factors of variation differ systematically between training and evaluation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

COVI-AgentSim: an Agent-based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing

The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented demand for effective methods to mitigate the spread of the disease, and various digital contact tracing (DCT) methods have emerged as a component of the solution. In order to make informed public health choices, there is a need for tools which allow evaluation and comparison of DCT methods. We introduce an agent-based compartmental simulator we call COVI-AgentSim, integrating detailed consideration of virology, disease progression, social contact networks, and mobility patterns, based on parameters derived from empirical research. We verify by comparing to real data that COVI-AgentSim is able to reproduce realistic COVID-19 spread dynamics, and perform a sensitivity analysis to verify that the relative performance of contact tracing methods are consistent across a range of settings. We use COVI-AgentSim to perform cost-benefit analyses comparing no DCT to: 1) standard binary contact tracing (BCT) that assigns binary recommendations based on binary test results; and 2) a rule-based method for feature-based contact tracing (FCT) that assigns a graded level of recommendation based on diverse individual features. We find all DCT methods consistently reduce the spread of the disease, and that the advantage of FCT over BCT is maintained over a wide range of adoption rates. Feature-based methods of contact tracing avert more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per socioeconomic cost (measured by productive hours lost). Our results suggest any DCT method can help save lives, support re-opening of economies, and prevent second-wave outbreaks, and that FCT methods are a promising direction for enriching BCT using self-reported symptoms, yielding earlier warning signals and a significantly reduced spread of the virus per socioeconomic cost.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Relative gradient optimization of the Jacobian term in unsupervised deep learning

Learning expressive probabilistic models correctly describing the data is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning. A popular approach for solving it is mapping the observations into a representation space with a simple joint distribution, which can typically be written as a product of its marginals -- thus drawing a connection with the field of nonlinear independent component analysis. Deep density models have been widely used for this task, but their maximum likelihood based training requires estimating the log-determinant of the Jacobian and is computationally expensive, thus imposing a trade-off between computation and expressive power. In this work, we propose a new approach for exact training of such neural networks. Based on relative gradients, we exploit the matrix structure of neural network parameters to compute updates efficiently even in high-dimensional spaces; the computational cost of the training is quadratic in the input size, in contrast with the cubic scaling of naive approaches. This allows fast training with objective functions involving the log-determinant of the Jacobian, without imposing constraints on its structure, in stark contrast to autoregressive normalizing flows.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

A Sober Look at the Unsupervised Learning of Disentangled Representations and their Evaluation

The idea behind the \emph{unsupervised} learning of \emph{disentangled} representations is that real-world data is generated by a few explanatory factors of variation which can be recovered by unsupervised learning algorithms. In this paper, we provide a sober look at recent progress in the field and challenge some common assumptions. We first theoretically show that the unsupervised learning of disentangled representations is fundamentally impossible without inductive biases on both the models and the data. Then, we train over $14000$ models covering most prominent methods and evaluation metrics in a reproducible large-scale experimental study on eight data sets. We observe that while the different methods successfully enforce properties "encouraged" by the corresponding losses, well-disentangled models seemingly cannot be identified without supervision. Furthermore, different evaluation metrics do not always agree on what should be considered "disentangled" and exhibit systematic differences in the estimation. Finally, increased disentanglement does not seem to necessarily lead to a decreased sample complexity of learning for downstream tasks. Our results suggest that future work on disentanglement learning should be explicit about the role of inductive biases and (implicit) supervision, investigate concrete benefits of enforcing disentanglement of the learned representations, and consider a reproducible experimental setup covering several data sets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning explanations that are hard to vary

In this paper, we investigate the principle that `good explanations are hard to vary' in the context of deep learning. We show that averaging gradients across examples -- akin to a logical OR of patterns -- can favor memorization and `patchwork' solutions that sew together different strategies, instead of identifying invariances. To inspect this, we first formalize a notion of consistency for minima of the loss surface, which measures to what extent a minimum appears only when examples are pooled. We then propose and experimentally validate a simple alternative algorithm based on a logical AND, that focuses on invariances and prevents memorization in a set of real-world tasks. Finally, using a synthetic dataset with a clear distinction between invariant and spurious mechanisms, we dissect learning signals and compare this approach to well-established regularizers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Algorithmic recourse under imperfect causal knowledge: a probabilistic approach

Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution. The second removes any assumptions on the structural equations by instead computing the average effect of recourse actions on individuals similar to the person who seeks recourse, leading to a novel subpopulation-based interventional notion of recourse. We then derive a gradient-based procedure for selecting optimal recourse actions, and empirically show that the proposed approaches lead to more reliable recommendations under imperfect causal knowledge than non-probabilistic baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Predicting Infectiousness for Proactive Contact Tracing

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdowns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individual's test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individual's contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individual's infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individual's contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Necessary and sufficient conditions for causal feature selection in time series with latent common causes

We study the identification of direct and indirect causes on time series and provide conditions in the presence of latent variables, which we prove to be necessary and sufficient under some graph constraints. Our theoretical results and estimation algorithms require two conditional independence tests for each observed candidate time series to determine whether or not it is a cause of an observed target time series. We provide experimental results in simulations, as well as real data. Our results show that our method leads to very low false positives and relatively low false negative rates, outperforming the widely used Granger causality.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Weakly-Supervised Disentanglement Without Compromises

Intelligent agents should be able to learn useful representations by observing changes in their environment. We model such observations as pairs of non-i.i.d. images sharing at least one of the underlying factors of variation. First, we theoretically show that only knowing how many factors have changed, but not which ones, is sufficient to learn disentangled representations. Second, we provide practical algorithms that learn disentangled representations from pairs of images without requiring annotation of groups, individual factors, or the number of factors that have changed. Third, we perform a large-scale empirical study and show that such pairs of observations are sufficient to reliably learn disentangled representations on several benchmark data sets. Finally, we evaluate our learned representations and find that they are simultaneously useful on a diverse suite of tasks, including generalization under covariate shifts, fairness, and abstract reasoning. Overall, our results demonstrate that weak supervision enables learning of useful disentangled representations in realistic scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning Kernel Tests Without Data Splitting

Modern large-scale kernel-based tests such as maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) optimize kernel hyperparameters on a held-out sample via data splitting to obtain the most powerful test statistics. While data splitting results in a tractable null distribution, it suffers from a reduction in test power due to smaller test sample size. Inspired by the selective inference framework, we propose an approach that enables learning the hyperparameters and testing on the full sample without data splitting. Our approach can correctly calibrate the test in the presence of such dependency, and yield a test threshold in closed form. At the same significance level, our approach's test power is empirically larger than that of the data-splitting approach, regardless of its split proportion.

cs.LG↗