arXiv subjects

Billy Edwards

Publications and source records attributed to Billy Edwards.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The metallicity of giant exoplanets around low-mass stars and how Ariel can help

Giant planets orbiting low-mass stars represent a unique population of giant planets that can be studied to constrain planet formation theory. Surveys of transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarfs (GEMS) allow for measurement of their masses and radii, which in turn can be used to estimate their bulk densities. Coupling these observations to interior structure and evolution models can yield the bulk metallicity of these planets, however there are degeneracies to this that are improved by measurements of atmospheric metallicity. Estimates of bulk metallicity can be crucial to our understanding of planet formation timescales and mass budgets, particularly in these extreme (planet-to-star) mass ratio systems. Here we show that GEMS are expected to have a low bulk metallicity as a natural result of the planet formation process, and the low efficiency of planetesimal capture post-formation. To test this empirically, we need a larger sample of GEMS with atmospheric measurements, which can reduce some of the degeneracies with the interior modelling of planets. Measuring the atmospheric composition of GEMS with JWST and Ariel will be crucial for better understanding this unique planetary type, which sits at the tail of standard planet formation conditions.

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arXiv2026

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $\rho_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $\rho_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

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arXiv2026

An Ultra-Short Period Super-Earth and a Sub-Neptune Orbiting the K dwarf TOI-4311

We report the discovery and characterisation of the multi-planetary system around TOI-4311, a K dwarf kinematically between the Galactic thick disk and Hercules stream. TOI-4311 hosts an ultra-short-period super-Earth (P$\sim$0.99 d, $1.376\substack{+0.077\\-0.080}$ R$_\oplus$) and a longer period sub-Neptune (P$\sim$15 d, $2.47\substack{+0.12\\-0.11}$ R$_\oplus$) that was first detected in the TESS photometry. Using follow-up observations with CHEOPS and HARPS, we refine the planetary radius of both planets, derive the mass of planet b ($4.5\substack{+1.5\\-1.4}$ M$_\oplus$) and confirm the planetary nature of planet c. Intriguingly, a third periodic signal is clearly detected in our HARPS RVs that we cannot link to stellar activity. This signal could be attributed to a third planet (P$\sim$38 d, Msin(i)=$26.4\substack{+6.3\\-6.8}$ M$_\oplus$) in the system, however with the current photometric dataset we do not find a transit. Our dynamical analysis highlights that this potential outer planet would remain stable. Using the precise radius and mass for TOI-4311 b we model its interior structure and find that it is very dense given the host star's galactic kinematics and chemistry. Hence this system could challenge current formation theories and provide insights into planet formation across the galaxy.

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arXiv2026

Assessment of PLATO Science Performance

The PLATO mission is scheduled for launch early 2027. In this paper we present an overview of the performance drivers for the mission at the time where all flight models of the cameras have been tested and integrated on the optical bench. The PLATO consortium needs an estimate of the planet detection yield to dimension the ground-based radial velocity follow-up resources. We provide updated estimates on the yield of planet detections that can be expected from the mission under certain assumptions. As of today, large uncertainties remain on the planet occurrence rates, especially for small planets in long-period orbits, and on our ability to detect these planets in the presence of stellar variability and instrumental noise. To partially overcome these limitations, we compare results using different planet occurrence rates, detectability rates, and we include an estimate on the expected contribution of stellar variability to the noise budget. The final detection yield of PLATO will provide constraints to planet occurrence rates which in turn will help constraining planet formation models.

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arXiv2025

The Albedo Problem and Cloud Cover on Hot Jupiters

Observations of transiting hot Jupiters have revealed a mismatch between the values of the Bond versus geometric albedos. In the planetary science literature, the ratio of these quantities is known as the phase integral. It has been extensively measured for the Solar System planets and shown to generally be non-unity in value. We use existing Cassini data of Jupiter to derive bandpass-integrated geometric albedos and phase integrals in the CHEOPS, TESS and Ariel bandpasses, demonstrating that these quantities vary markedly across these different wavelength ranges. By performing a population study of geometric albedos and phase integrals, we demonstrate that atmospheres with partial cloud cover may be identified using measurements of the phase integral if its measured uncertainty is $\sim 0.1$, which corresponds to an uncertainty of $\sim 3\%$ on the optical/visible secondary eclipse depth. The upcoming Ariel space mission will conduct an unprecedented statistical survey of cloud cover on hot Jupiters via the simultaneous measurement of $\sim 100$ infrared phase curves and optical secondary eclipses. Whenever available, the shape of optical phase curves of reflected light will directly constrain the phase integral, spherical albedo, degree of cloud cover and scattering asymmetry factor.

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arXiv2025

A JWST Transit of a Jupiter Analog: II. A Search for Exomoons

We present a search for exomoons around the Jupiter-like exoplanet Kepler-167e using a NIRSpec JWST transit. Our 60 hour time series clearly reveals the enormous impact of long-term trends in NIRSpec data, specifically a gradual flux drift occurring over each of six 10 hour exposures. We weighed the evidence for exomoons by comparing a planet-only model with a planet+moon model for a grid of twelve different analysis choices. Our grid was comprised of three different reduction pipelines and four different models for the exposure-long trends - two using linear models and two using Gaussian processes. Seven grid realizations indicate a strong exomoon detection, typically favoring a Roche-skimming orbit roughly 10% the size of the planet. We find that the only likely real astrophysical feature driving these fits is a syzygy-like event occurring almost exactly mid-transit, which is highly ambiguous with a spot-crossing event. Indeed, we show that a spot of the necessary size is compatible with the earlier Kepler data. Ironically, the fact that JWST is so superior to Kepler means that our fits are effectively driven by a single transit - a regime in which exomoons have enormous freedom to explain non-Gaussian behavior. We thus strongly urge the next transit be observed in October 2027 to break these degeneracies. Our pilot study to seek transiting exomoons with JWST reveals the profound impact exposure-long trends exert - a cautionary tale for future analyzes of this data - as well as the need for a deeper understanding of this systematic's cause and modeling best-practices.

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arXiv2025

A JWST Transit of a Jupiter Analog I: Constraints on the Oblateness of Kepler-167e

In October 2024 JWST observed a transit of Kepler-167e, a Jupiter-analog planet on a 1000+ day orbit. These observations, recorded over a long baseline of nearly 60 hours, were designed to search for signatures of planetary oblateness and/or exomoons comparable to Ganymede. In this first in a series of studies analyzing these data we report on constraints on Kepler-167e's oblateness. We explored a large grid of data reduction pipelines and modeling choices, including a new entirely independent reduction pipeline ("katahdin") and two new treatments for limb darkening. We find that under a Bayesian model comparison framework the data are fit equally well by both spherical and oblate planet models, and that our ability to constrain the oblateness is negatively impacted by the influence of exposure-long trends. Using the most conservative of our posteriors, we place a 95% upper bound on the projected oblateness of $f<0.097$, which corresponds to a rotation period of $P\geq7.11$ hours if the planet's spin axis is aligned with the sky plane. We note, however, that the final bound depends on the choice of reduction pipeline and systematics model, and that our suite of end-to-end analyses produced bounds as low as $f<0.065$ at 95%. We conclude that leveraging JWST to make tighter constraints on planetary oblateness will require further investigation into mitigating exposure-long trends and correlated noise.

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arXiv2025

An Ultra-Short Period Super-Earth and Sub-Neptune Spanning the Radius Valley Orbiting the Kinematic Thick Disk Star TOI-2345

A crucial chemical link between stars and their orbiting exoplanets is thought to exist. If universal, this connection could affect the formation and evolution of all planets. Therefore, this potential vital link needs testing by characterising exoplanets around chemically-diverse stars. We present the discovery of two planets orbiting the metal-poor, kinematic thick-disk K-dwarf TOI-2345. TOI-2345 b is a super-Earth with a period of 1.05 days and TOI-2345 c is a sub-Neptune with a period of 21 days. In addition to the target being observed in 4 TESS sectors, we obtained 5 CHEOPS visits and 26 radial velocities from HARPS. By conducting a joint analysis of all the data, we find TOI-2345 b to have a radius of $1.504\substack{+0.047\\-0.044}$ R$_\oplus$ and a mass of $3.49\pm0.85$ M$_\oplus$; and TOI-2345 c to have a radius of $2.451\substack{+0.045\\-0.046}$ R$_\oplus$ and a mass of $7.27\substack{+2.27\\-2.45}$ M$_\oplus$. To explore chemical links between these planets and their host star, we model their interior structures newly accounting for devolatised stellar abundances. TOI-2345 adds to the limited sample of well characterised planetary systems around thick disk stars. This system challenges theories of formation and populations of planets around thick disk stars with its Ultra-Short Period super-Earth and the wide period distribution of these two planets spanning the radius valley.

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arXiv2025

Eclipse Mapping with Ariel: Future Prospects for a Population-Level Mapping Survey

Eclipse mapping is a powerful tool for measuring 3D profiles of exoplanet atmospheres. To date, only JWST has been capable of widely applying this technique, but as a general observatory, it is too time-limited to conduct population-level mapping studies. Ariel, on the other hand, is a dedicated exoplanet mission set to observe 1000 transiting exoplanets, making it a natural candidate for this. To assess Ariel's mapping potential, we quantitatively benchmark its abilities against those of JWST using a simulation-and-retrieval framework with existing JWST eclipse maps as test cases. We find that for high-ranking targets, Ariel will be able to derive qualitatively similar maps to JWST using the same amount of observations; for mid-ranking targets, Ariel will be able to compete using as few as 3x as many observations; and for lower-ranking targets, the use of phase curves overcomes the need for an impractical number of repeated eclipse observations. We find that while Ariel is unlikely to have extensive latitudinal mapping abilities, it will have wide-ranging longitudinal abilities, from which the first-order atmospheric dynamics can be constrained. Using an analytically-derived metric, we determine the best eclipse mapping targets for Ariel, finding that it will be able to map nearly 100 targets using full phase curves in only quarter of its lifetime. This would be the largest mapping survey to date, and have enormous ramifications for our demographic understanding of exoplanet atmospheric dynamics. Finally, we rank all the best mapping targets for both JWST and Ariel in order to encourage future eclipse mapping studies.

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arXiv2025

A decade of transit photometry for K2-19: Revised system architecture

The star K2-19 hosts a pair of Neptunian planets deep inside the 3:2 resonance. They induce strong transit-timing variations with two incommensurate frequencies. Previous photodynamical modeling of 3.3 years of transit and radial velocity data produced mass estimates of 32.4 +/- 1.7 M_E and 10.8 +/- 0.6 M_E for planets b and c, respectively, and corresponding eccentricity estimates of 0.20 +/- 0.03 and 0.21 +/- 0.03. These high eccentricities raise questions about the formation origin of the system, and this motivated us to extend the observing baseline in an attempt to better constrain their values. We present a photodynamical analysis of 10 years of transit data that confirms the previous mass estimates (30.8 +/- 1.3 M_E and 11.1 +/- 0.4 M_E), but reduces the median eccentricities to 0.04 +/- 0.02 and 0.07 +/- 0.02 for b and c, respectively. These values are more consistent with standard formation models, but still involve nonzero free eccentricity. The previously reported high eccentricities appear to be due to a single transit for which measurements taken at twilight mimicked ingress. This resulted in a 12-minute error in the midtransit time. The data that covered 1.3 and 5 so-called super and resonant periods were used to match a Fourier analysis of the transit-timing variation signal with simple analytic expressions for the frequencies and amplitudes to obtain planet mass estimates within 2% of the median photodynamical values, regardless of the eccentricities. Theoretical details of the analysis are presented in a companion paper. Additionally, we identified a possible planet candidate situated exterior to the b-c pair. Finally, in contrast to a previous study, our internal structure modeling of K2-19 b yields a metal mass fraction that is consistent with core accretion.

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arXiv2025

First JWST thermal phase curves of temperate terrestrial exoplanets reveal no thick atmosphere around TRAPPIST-1 b and c

We report JWST/MIRI 15 $\mu$m phase curves of TRAPPIST-1 b and c, revealing thermal emission consistent with their irradiation levels, assuming no efficient heat redistribution. We find that TRAPPIST-1 b shows a high dayside brightness temperature (490 $\pm$ 17 K), no significantly detectable nightside emission ($F_{\rm b, Night, max}$ = $39_{-27}^{+55}$ ppm), and no phase offset -- features consistent with a low-albedo, airless ultramafic rocky surface. TRAPPIST-1 c exhibits a lower dayside brightness temperature (369 $\pm$ 23 K), and a nightside flux statistically indistinguishable from that of TRAPPIST-1 b ($F_{\rm c, Night, max}$ = $62_{-43}^{+60}$ ppm). Atmosphere models with surface pressures $\geq$1 bar and efficient greenhouse effects are strongly disfavoured for both planets. TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to possess any substantial atmosphere, while TRAPPIST-1 c may retain a tenuous, greenhouse-poor O$_2$-dominated atmosphere or be similarly airless with a more reflective surface. These results suggest divergent evolutionary pathways or atmospheric loss processes, despite similar compositions. These measurements tightly constrain atmosphere retention in the inner TRAPPIST-1 system.

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arXiv2025

On the synergetic use of Ariel and JWST for exoplanet atmospheric science

This paper explores the potential for strategic synergies between the JWST and the Ariel telescopes, two flagship observatories poised to revolutionise the study of exoplanet atmospheres. Both telescopes have the potential to address common fundamental questions about exoplanets-especially concerning their nature and origins-and serve a growing scientific community. With their operations now anticipated to overlap, starting from 2030, there is a unique opportunity to enhance the scientific outputs of both observatories through coordinated efforts. In this report, authored by the Ariel-JWST Synergy Working Group, part of the Ariel Consortium Science Team, we summarise the capabilities of JWST and Ariel; we highlight their key differences, similarities, synergies, and distinctive strengths. Ariel is designed to conduct a broad survey of exoplanet atmospheres but remains highly flexible, allowing the mission to integrate insights from JWST's discoveries. Findings from JWST, including data from initiatives shaped by NASA's decadal survey priorities and community-driven research themes, will inform the development of Ariel's core survey strategy. Conversely, Ariel's ability to perform broad-wavelength coverage observations for bright targets provides complementary avenues for exoplanet researchers, particularly those interested in time-domain observations and large-scale atmospheric studies. This paper identifies key pathways for fostering JWST-Ariel synergies, many of which can be initiated even before Ariel's launch. Leveraging their complementary designs and scopes, JWST and Ariel can jointly address fundamental questions about the nature, formation, and evolution of exoplanets. Such strategic collaboration has the potential to maximise the scientific returns of both observatories and lay the foundation for future facilities in the roadmap to exoplanet exploration.

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arXiv2025

TrES-1 b: A Case Study in Detecting Secular Evolution of Exoplanet Orbits

We present a comprehensive analysis of transit, eclipse, and radial velocity data of the hot Jupiter TrES-1 b and confirm evidence of orbital variations on secular timescales. Apparent variations due to systemic motion and light travel time effects have been ruled out, indicating that the observed changes are dynamical in origin. Joint modeling of the TrES-1 b data favors an apsidal precession model, but the rapid precession rate of $4^\circ$ yr$^{-1}$ cannot be explained without invoking an undetected close-in planetary companion, which remains unseen in the data. While radial velocity measurements reveal a previously undetected companion candidate on a wide, eccentric orbit, it is unlikely to drive the observed evolution of TrES-1 b. However, an orbital decay model provides a plausible alternative if the loss of orbital energy is driven by planetary obliquity tides. We find that the best-fit orbital decay rate of $-7.1^{ +1.5}_{-1.6}$ ms yr$^{-1}$ is aligned with theoretical predictions for modified tidal quality factors of hot Jupiters if TrES-1 b has a planetary obliquity $\varepsilon_p > 30^\circ$. We encourage follow-up observations of this system, particularly of eclipse timing and radial velocities, to further constrain the nature of the observed evolution. This paper provides a practical framework for studying secular variations and aims to accelerate future research on similar systems.

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arXiv2025

Cloud and Haze Parameterization in Atmospheric Retrievals: Insights from Titan's Cassini Data and JWST Observations of Hot Jupiters

Context: Before JWST, telescope observations were not sensitive enough to constrain the nature of clouds in exo-atmospheres. Recent observations, however, have inferred cloud signatures as well as haze-enhanced scattering slopes motivating the need for modern inversion techniques and a deeper understanding of the JWST information content. Aims: We aim to investigate the information content of JWST exoplanet spectra. We particularly focus on designing an inversion technique able to handle a wide range of cloud and hazes. Methods: We build a flexible aerosol parameterization within the TauREx framework, enabling us to conduct atmospheric retrievals of planetary atmospheres. The method is evaluated on available Cassini occultations of Titan. We then use the model to interpret the recent JWST data for the prototypical hot Jupiters HAT-P-18 b, WASP-39 b, WASP-96 b, and WASP-107 b. In parallel, we perform complementary simulations on controlled scenarios to further understand the information content of JWST data and provide parameterization guidelines. Results: Our results use free and kinetic chemistry retrievals to extract the main atmospheric properties of key JWST exoplanets, including their molecular abundances, thermal structures, and aerosol properties. In our investigations, we show the need for a wide wavelength coverage to robustly characterize clouds and hazes-which is necessary to mitigate biases arising from our lack of priors on their composition-and break degeneracies with atmospheric chemical composition. With JWST, the characterization of clouds and hazes might be difficult due to the lack of simultaneous wavelength coverage from visible to mid-infrared by a single instruments and the likely presence of temporal variability between visits (from e.g., observing conditions, instrument systematics, stellar host variability, or planetary weather).

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arXiv2025

Towards High Precision Mass Measurements of Two Sub-Neptunes in the K2-266 Planetary System Through Transit Timing

Sub-Neptunes have been found to be one of the most common types of exoplanets, yet their physical parameters and properties are poorly determined and in need of further investigation. In order to improve the mass measurement and parameter determination of two sub-Neptunes, K2-266 d and K2-266 e, we present new transit observations obtained with CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite (CHEOPS) and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), increasing the baseline of transit data from a few epochs to 165 epochs for K2-266 d, and to 121 epochs for K2-266 e. Through a two-stage fitting process, it is found that the masses of K2-266 d and K2-266 e are 6.01$\pm$0.43 $M_\oplus$ and 7.70$\pm$0.58 $M_\oplus$, respectively. With these updated values and one order of magnitude better precision, we confirm the planets to belong to the population of planets that has been determined to be volatile-rich. Finally, we present the results of dynamical simulations, showing that the system is stable, the orbits are not chaotic, and that these two planets are close to but not in 4:3 mean motion resonance.

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arXiv2024

Combined analysis of the 12.8 and 15 $\mu m$ JWST/MIRI eclipse observations of TRAPPIST-1 b

The first JWST/MIRI photometric observations of TRAPPIST-1 b allowed for the detection of the thermal emission of the planet at 15 $\mu m$, suggesting that the planet could be a bare rock with a zero albedo and no redistribution of heat. These observations at 15 $\mu m$ were acquired as part of GTO time that included a twin program at 12.8 $\mu m$ in order to have a measurement in and outside the CO$_2$ absorption band. Here we present five new occultations of TRAPPIST-1 b observed with MIRI in an additional photometric band at 12.8 $\mu m$. We perform a global fit of the 10 eclipses and derive a planet-to-star flux ratio and 1-$\sigma$ error of 452 $\pm$ 86 ppm and 775 $\pm$ 90 ppm at 12.8 $\mu m$ and 15 $\mu m$, respectively. We find that two main scenarios emerge. An airless planet model with an unweathered (fresh) ultramafic surface, that could be indicative of relatively recent geological processes fits well the data. Alternatively, a thick, pure-CO2 atmosphere with photochemical hazes that create a temperature inversion and result in the CO2 feature being seen in emission also works, although with some caveats. Our results highlight the challenges in accurately determining a planet's atmospheric or surface nature solely from broadband filter measurements of its emission, but also point towards two very interesting scenarios that will be further investigated with the forthcoming phase curve of TRAPPIST-1 b.

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arXiv2024

A Global Perspective with Updated Constraints on the Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-19b: Atmospheric Properties and Stellar Activity

We present a detailed reanalysis of the atmospheric properties of WASP-19b, an ultra-hot Jupiter (1.14 M Jup, 1.41 R Jup) orbiting an active Sun-like star every 0.79 day. We reanalyze a transit and secondary eclipse of WASP-19b observed by the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 spectrograph (1.1 - 1.7 microns). When combined with Spitzer photometry at longer wavelengths, our analyses indicate the presence of water absorption features in both the planet's transmission and emission spectra, consistent with results from previously published studies. We jointly fit WASP-19b's dayside emission and transmission spectra with a retrieval model in order to constrain its atmospheric composition, and explore the effect of stellar activity on its transmission spectrum in greater depth. We also compare our dayside emission spectrum to predictions from a general circulation model, and conclude that magnetic drag appears to be relatively unimportant in shaping WASP-19b's atmospheric circulation. Lastly, we compare the size of WASP-19b's dayside water absorption feature to the population of hot Jupiters with similar measurements, and show that it is located in the transitional irradiation regime where temperature inversions first begin to emerge. As in previous studies, we find that the current observations provide relatively weak constraints on this planet's atmospheric properties. These constraints could be significantly improved by the addition of spectroscopically resolved observations at longer wavelengths with JWST/NIRSpec PRISM.

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arXiv2024

In-situ observations of resident space objects with the CHEOPS space telescope

The CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is a partnership between the European Space Agency and Switzerland with important contributions by 10 additional ESA member States. It is the first S-class mission in the ESA Science Programme. CHEOPS has been flying on a Sun-synchronous low Earth orbit since December 2019, collecting millions of short-exposure images in the visible domain to study exoplanet properties. A small yet increasing fraction of CHEOPS images show linear trails caused by resident space objects crossing the instrument field of view. To characterize the population of satellites and orbital debris observed by CHEOPS, all and every science images acquired over the past 3 years have been scanned with a Hough transform algorithm to identify the characteristic linear features that these objects cause on the images. Thousands of trails have been detected. This statistically significant sample shows interesting trends and features such as an increased occurrence rate over the past years as well as the fingerprint of the Starlink constellation. The cross-matching of individual trails with catalogued objects is underway as we aim to measure their distance at the time of observation and deduce the apparent magnitude of the detected objects. As space agencies and private companies are developing new space-based surveillance and tracking activities to catalogue and characterize the distribution of small debris, the CHEOPS experience is timely and relevant. With the first CHEOPS mission extension currently running until the end of 2026, and a possible second extension until the end of 2029, the longer time coverage will make our dataset even more valuable to the community, especially for characterizing objects with recurrent crossings.

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