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Blaise Agüera y Arcas

Publications and source records attributed to Blaise Agüera y Arcas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Defining and Generating Compositional Structure

Compositional structure is pervasive in nature and across scales: atoms combine into molecules, molecules into cells, and cells into organisms, while further compositional hierarchies appear within each level. More broadly, compositionality, the reuse and recombination of parts into novel structures, is a fundamental source of interesting complexity in both natural and artificial systems. Yet despite its importance, and despite our apparent ease in recognizing it, mathematical accounts capturing what we intuitively mean by compositional structure remain limited. Here, we fill this gap by formalizing a simple idea: compositional structure emerges when parts, considered together, reveal shared structure that is not captured when those parts are modeled separately. We express this idea using algorithmic information theory, the mathematics of information and compression, which provides a natural way to identify structure in arbitrary data without specifying in advance what that structure must look like. Applied across scales, our definition informs where and how compositional structure emerges within an object. Using tractable approximations, we then invert the framework to generate compositional objects: we specify the desired form of their compositional structure without prescribing their particular content, and optimize directly over strings and images. The resulting objects exhibit readily recognizable hierarchical reuse and part-whole organization, suggesting that the definition captures compositional structure rather than merely complexity, regularity, or shared information. Finally, we discuss implications for machine learning, including a new perspective on depth in neural architectures and principles for constructing compositional data curricula capable of supporting open-ended learning.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Reasoning with Neural Cellular Automata

Modern AI architectures used to solve visual reasoning tasks typically rely heavily on global connectivity and synchronization. As biological systems demonstrate, though, sophisticated computation can be performed in a more decentralized fashion. In this work, we test the reasoning capabilities of Neural Cellular Automata (NCAs), networks of recurrent cells that use strictly local connectivity and asynchronous updates. NCAs have been extensively studied in artificial life experiments, but it is unclear whether they can perform complex multi-step reasoning. We show that NCAs produce spatio-temporal dynamics capable of solving challenging visual reasoning tasks, including large mazes, Sudoku, and ARC-AGI-1. Furthermore, we provide evidence that NCAs generalize out-of-distribution when running with larger grids, longer rollouts, or parallel trials; and that the latter can be made more efficient via pruning of redundant trajectories. We find that these generalization capabilities depend on training with sample replay and stochastic perturbations, and that stochasticity remains beneficial at test time. Finally, we show that NCAs are robust reasoners capable of dynamically modulating compute to recover efficiently from damage, and that they can scale to solve reasoning in raw pixel space.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Tapes Together Strong: The Co-evolution of Computation and Cooperation

How does cooperation evolve in complex agentic systems? Prior work in evolutionary game theory studies why individuals are incentivized to cooperate by isolating social interactions from the physical costs of behavior, while artificial life models traditionally study emergent self-replication without formalizing the dilemma between acquiring resources and preserving the shared energy needed to reproduce. In contrast, we introduce Autopoietic Game Theory, a computational model where social interactions, replication mechanisms, and their associated computational costs are endogenous and simultaneously co-evolving. We study these dynamics using a computational substrate of randomly initialized programs in Z80 machine code, showing empirically, and motivating with a simplified theoretical model, that embedding a social dilemma directly into the physics of computation can favor the emergence of self-replicating, cooperative strategies. When resources are scarce, our analysis shows that defection can become self-limiting even in well-mixed populations: parasitic stealing destroys shared energy, slows execution, and can prevent reliable replication. Empirically, evolved programs suppress stealing across several Z80 environments, while spatial assortment further supports structural complexity and task performance. We further show that the framework can incorporate exogenous pressures, such as math tasks structured as sequential social dilemmas, when rewards are tied to computation budgets. These results suggest that coupling an agent's capacity for computation to its available energy transforms cooperation into a dominant scaffolding for building sustainable, self-organizing systems.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2026

Embedded Universal Predictive Intelligence: a coherent framework for multi-agent learning

The standard theory of model-free reinforcement learning assumes that the environment dynamics are stationary and that agents are decoupled from their environment, such that policies are treated as being separate from the world they inhabit. This leads to theoretical challenges in the multi-agent setting where the non-stationarity induced by the learning of other agents demands prospective learning based on prediction models. To accurately model other agents, an agent must account for the fact that those other agents are, in turn, forming beliefs about it to predict its future behavior, motivating agents to model themselves as part of the environment. Here, building upon foundational work on universal artificial intelligence (AIXI), we introduce a mathematical framework for prospective learning and embedded agency centered on self-prediction, where Bayesian RL agents predict both future perceptual inputs and their own actions, and must therefore resolve epistemic uncertainty about themselves as part of the universe they inhabit. We show that in multi-agent settings, self-prediction enables agents to reason about others running similar algorithms, leading to new game-theoretic solution concepts and novel forms of cooperation unattainable by classical decoupled agents. Moreover, we extend the theory of AIXI, and study universally intelligent embedded agents which start from a Solomonoff prior. We show that these idealized agents can form consistent mutual predictions and achieve infinite-order theory of mind, potentially setting a gold standard for embedded multi-agent learning.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

A game theory for foundation models shows new paths to rational cooperation through similarity inference

As autonomous agents powered by foundation models are increasingly integrated into social and economic systems, understanding the principles governing their collective behavior is essential for ensuring safety and cooperation. Classical game theory, the dominant framework for modeling rational interaction, is built upon the assumption of `decoupled agency,' where agents treat their own decision-making as independent of the environment and other actors. Modern AI agents, however, jointly predict their own future actions alongside external observations. Here, we report a striking finding: when interacting in stylized social dilemmas, foundation model agents engaging in optimal planning consistently converge to stable cooperation, directly contradicting classical game-theoretic predictions of mutual defection. To understand this phenomenon, we introduce the `embedded Bayesian agent,' a theoretical model for foundation model agents. By shifting from decoupled to embedded agency, these agents model themselves as part of the universe they inhabit, maintaining epistemic uncertainty about their own decision-making algorithms. We show that by inferring whether others are behaviorally similar, an embedded agent treats its own deliberation during planning as evidence: a decision to cooperate predicts a similar decision by a similar partner. We formalize this mechanism of similarity inference through the `embedded equilibrium,' a novel solution concept replacing the Nash equilibrium to provide a foundational game theory for the social behavior of modern AI agents.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

BFF: Simple explanations for complex phenomena

The ''Computational Life'' paper (Agüera y Arcas et al., 2024) argues that paired interactions in a computational soup are an effective way to find self-replicators. In this work, aided by recent developments in self-replicator detection, we explore the alternate hypothesis that self-replicators can be found at least as easily using simple mutation random walks in program space. We also explore the claim that capping the maximum ''depth'' and ''width'' of the ancestry tree stops self-replicators from emerging, showing instead that it merely stops self-replicators from taking over the soup.

cs.NE↗
arXiv2026

Towards a future space-based, highly scalable AI infrastructure system design

If AI is a foundational general-purpose technology, we should anticipate that demand for AI compute -- and energy -- will continue to grow. The Sun is by far the largest energy source in our solar system, and thus it warrants consideration how future AI infrastructure could most efficiently tap into that power. This work explores a scalable compute system for machine learning in space, using fleets of satellites equipped with solar arrays, inter-satellite links using free-space optics, and Google tensor processing unit (TPU) accelerator chips. To facilitate high-bandwidth, low-latency inter-satellite communication, the satellites would be flown in close proximity. We illustrate the basic approach to formation flight via an 81-satellite cluster of 1 km radius, and describe an approach for using high-precision ML-based models to control large-scale constellations. Trillium TPUs are radiation tested. They survive a total ionizing dose equivalent to a 5 year mission life without permanent failures, and are characterized for bit-flip errors. Launch costs are a critical part of overall system cost; a learning curve analysis suggests launch to low-Earth orbit (LEO) may reach $\lesssim$\$200/kg by the mid-2030s.

cs.DC↗
arXiv2026

Can In-Context Learning Support Intrinsic Curiosity?

Effective machine learning depends not only on how we model data, but also on what data we choose to collect. While large sequence models have revolutionized data modeling, the problem of automated data selection, or "intrinsic curiosity", remains a significant challenge. Classic approaches incentivize exploration by rewarding an agent based on its "learning progress", which measures how much a newly acquired observation improves a world model's predictive ability. However, evaluating these rewards traditionally requires expensive inner loops of gradient descent updates within each trajectory, rendering them computationally impractical at scale. In this work, we investigate whether the emergent in-context learning (ICL) capabilities of sequence models can eliminate this bottleneck by serving as immediate, update-free world models. Specifically, we evaluate whether an exploration policy can be trained to maximize learning progress, using solely the prediction errors and counterfactual context manipulations of an in-context learner. We first prove that in general Markov decision processes, this is in fact impossible in an unbiased way: the resulting intrinsic rewards either suffer from nuisance terms that bias their estimation of true learning progress, or they cannot be implemented using an in-context learner's prediction errors. Conversely, we prove a positive result for a broad subclass of non-temporal settings, encompassing active learning and Bayesian Experimental Design: here, ICL-derived rewards successfully bound and asymptotically converge to the true learning progress. We corroborate our theory with controlled experiments across continuous and symbolic environments, demonstrating that our ICL-driven framework successfully trains curious data-collection policies that explore optimally.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

MesaNet: Sequence Modeling by Locally Optimal Test-Time Training

Sequence modeling is currently dominated by causal transformer architectures that use softmax self-attention. Although widely adopted, transformers require scaling memory and compute linearly during inference. A recent stream of work linearized the softmax operation, resulting in powerful recurrent neural network (RNN) models with constant memory and compute costs such as DeltaNet, Mamba or xLSTM. These models can be unified by noting that their recurrent layer dynamics can all be derived from an in-context regression objective, approximately optimized through an online learning rule. Here, we join this line of work and introduce a numerically stable, chunkwise parallelizable version of the recently proposed Mesa layer (von Oswald et al., 2024), which could only run sequentially in time and was therefore not scalable. This layer again stems from an in-context loss, but which is now minimized to optimality at every time point using a fast conjugate gradient solver. Through an extensive suite of experiments study up to the billion-parameter scale, we show that optimal test-time training enables reaching lower language modeling perplexity and higher downstream benchmark performance than previous RNNs, especially on tasks requiring long context understanding. This performance gain comes at the cost of additional flops spent during inference time. Our results are therefore intriguingly related to recent trends of increasing test-time compute to improve performance -- here by spending compute to solve sequential optimization problems within the neural network itself.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Formal Conjectures: An Open and Evolving Benchmark for Verified Discovery in Mathematics

As automated reasoning systems advance rapidly, there is a growing need for research-level formal mathematical problems to accurately evaluate their capabilities. To address this, we present Formal Conjectures, an evolving benchmark of currently 2615 mathematical problem statements formalized in Lean 4. Sourced from areas of active mathematical research, the dataset features 1029 open research conjectures providing a zero-contamination benchmark for mathematical proof discovery, and 836 solved problems for proof autoformalization. Notably, the repository provides a structured interface connecting mathematicians who formalize and clarify problems with the AI systems and humans attempting to solve them. Demonstrating its immediate utility, the benchmark has already been leveraged to make new mathematical discoveries, including the resolution of open research conjectures. We describe our approach to ensuring the correctness of these formalizations in a collaborative open-source project where contributions stem from an active community. In this framework, AI-generated proofs and disproofs serve as a valuable auditing mechanism to iteratively improve the fidelity of the benchmark. Finally, we provide a standardized evaluation setup and report baseline results on frozen evaluation subsets, demonstrating a climbable signal that measures the current frontier of automated reasoning on research-level mathematics.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Agentic AI and the next intelligence explosion

The "AI singularity" is often miscast as a monolithic, godlike mind. Evolution suggests a different path: intelligence is fundamentally plural, social, and relational. Recent advances in agentic AI reveal that frontier reasoning models, such as DeepSeek-R1, do not improve simply by "thinking longer". Instead, they simulate internal "societies of thought," spontaneous cognitive debates that argue, verify, and reconcile to solve complex tasks. Moreover, we are entering an era of human-AI centaurs: hybrid actors where collective agency transcends individual control. Scaling this intelligence requires shifting from dyadic alignment (RLHF) toward institutional alignment. By designing digital protocols, modeled on organizations and markets, we can build a social infrastructure of checks and balances. The next intelligence explosion will not be a single silicon brain, but a complex, combinatorial society specializing and sprawling like a city. No mind is an island.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

The unreasonable effectiveness of pattern matching

We report on an astonishing ability of large language models (LLMs) to make sense of "Jabberwocky" language in which most or all content words have been randomly replaced by nonsense strings, e.g., translating "He dwushed a ghanc zawk" to "He dragged a spare chair". This result addresses ongoing controversies regarding how to best think of what LLMs are doing: are they a language mimic, a database, a blurry version of the Web? The ability of LLMs to recover meaning from structural patterns speaks to the unreasonable effectiveness of pattern-matching. Pattern-matching is not an alternative to "real" intelligence, but rather a key ingredient.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Multi-agent cooperation through in-context co-player inference

Achieving cooperation among self-interested agents remains a fundamental challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning. Recent work showed that mutual cooperation can be induced between "learning-aware" agents that account for and shape the learning dynamics of their co-players. However, existing approaches typically rely on hardcoded, often inconsistent, assumptions about co-player learning rules or enforce a strict separation between "naive learners" updating on fast timescales and "meta-learners" observing these updates. Here, we demonstrate that the in-context learning capabilities of sequence models allow for co-player learning awareness without requiring hardcoded assumptions or explicit timescale separation. We show that training sequence model agents against a diverse distribution of co-players naturally induces in-context best-response strategies, effectively functioning as learning algorithms on the fast intra-episode timescale. We find that the cooperative mechanism identified in prior work-where vulnerability to extortion drives mutual shaping-emerges naturally in this setting: in-context adaptation renders agents vulnerable to extortion, and the resulting mutual pressure to shape the opponent's in-context learning dynamics resolves into the learning of cooperative behavior. Our results suggest that standard decentralized reinforcement learning on sequence models combined with co-player diversity provides a scalable path to learning cooperative behaviors.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Reasoning Models Generate Societies of Thought

Large language models have achieved remarkable capabilities across domains, yet mechanisms underlying sophisticated reasoning remain elusive. Recent reasoning models outperform comparable instruction-tuned models on complex cognitive tasks, attributed to extended computation through longer chains of thought. Here we show that enhanced reasoning emerges not from extended computation alone, but from simulating multi-agent-like interactions -- a society of thought -- which enables diversification and debate among internal cognitive perspectives characterized by distinct personality traits and domain expertise. Through quantitative analysis and mechanistic interpretability methods applied to reasoning traces, we find that reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 and QwQ-32B exhibit much greater perspective diversity than instruction-tuned models, activating broader conflict between heterogeneous personality- and expertise-related features during reasoning. This multi-agent structure manifests in conversational behaviors, including question-answering, perspective shifts, and the reconciliation of conflicting views, and in socio-emotional roles that characterize sharp back-and-forth conversations, together accounting for the accuracy advantage in reasoning tasks. Controlled reinforcement learning experiments reveal that base models increase conversational behaviors when rewarded solely for reasoning accuracy, and fine-tuning models with conversational scaffolding accelerates reasoning improvement over base models. These findings indicate that the social organization of thought enables effective exploration of solution spaces. We suggest that reasoning models establish a computational parallel to collective intelligence in human groups, where diversity enables superior problem-solving when systematically structured, which suggests new opportunities for agent organization to harness the wisdom of crowds.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

Emergent temporal abstractions in autoregressive models enable hierarchical reinforcement learning

Large-scale autoregressive models pretrained on next-token prediction and finetuned with reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved unprecedented success on many problem domains. During RL, these models explore by generating new outputs, one token at a time. However, sampling actions token-by-token can result in highly inefficient learning, particularly when rewards are sparse. Here, we show that it is possible to overcome this problem by acting and exploring within the internal representations of an autoregressive model. Specifically, to discover temporally-abstract actions, we introduce a higher-order, non-causal sequence model whose outputs control the residual stream activations of a base autoregressive model. On grid world and MuJoCo-based tasks with hierarchical structure, we find that the higher-order model learns to compress long activation sequence chunks onto internal controllers. Critically, each controller executes a sequence of behaviorally meaningful actions that unfold over long timescales and are accompanied with a learned termination condition, such that composing multiple controllers over time leads to efficient exploration on novel tasks. We show that direct internal controller reinforcement, a process we term "internal RL", enables learning from sparse rewards in cases where standard RL finetuning fails. Our results demonstrate the benefits of latent action generation and reinforcement in autoregressive models, suggesting internal RL as a promising avenue for realizing hierarchical RL within foundation models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

What Lives? A meta-analysis of diverse opinions on the definition of life

The question of "what is life?" has challenged scientists and philosophers for centuries, producing an array of definitions that reflect both the mystery of its emergence and the diversity of disciplinary perspectives brought to bear on the question. Despite significant progress in our understanding of biological systems, psychology, computation, and information theory, no single definition for life has yet achieved universal acceptance. This challenge becomes increasingly urgent as advances in synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and astrobiology challenge our traditional conceptions of what it means to be alive. We undertook a methodological approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to analyze a set of definitions of life provided by a curated set of cross-disciplinary experts. We used a novel pairwise correlation analysis to map the definitions into distinct feature vectors, followed by agglomerative clustering, intra-cluster semantic analysis, and t-SNE projection to reveal underlying conceptual archetypes. This methodology revealed a continuous landscape of the themes relating to the definition of life, suggesting that what has historically been approached as a binary taxonomic problem should be instead conceived as differentiated perspectives within a unified conceptual latent space. We offer a new methodological bridge between reductionist and holistic approaches to fundamental questions in science and philosophy, demonstrating how computational semantic analysis can reveal conceptual patterns across disciplinary boundaries, and opening similar pathways for addressing other contested definitional territories across the sciences.

q-bio.OT↗
arXiv2025

Multi-agent cooperation through learning-aware policy gradients

Self-interested individuals often fail to cooperate, posing a fundamental challenge for multi-agent learning. How can we achieve cooperation among self-interested, independent learning agents? Promising recent work has shown that in certain tasks cooperation can be established between learning-aware agents who model the learning dynamics of each other. Here, we present the first unbiased, higher-derivative-free policy gradient algorithm for learning-aware reinforcement learning, which takes into account that other agents are themselves learning through trial and error based on multiple noisy trials. We then leverage efficient sequence models to condition behavior on long observation histories that contain traces of the learning dynamics of other agents. Training long-context policies with our algorithm leads to cooperative behavior and high returns on standard social dilemmas, including a challenging environment where temporally-extended action coordination is required. Finally, we derive from the iterated prisoner's dilemma a novel explanation for how and when cooperation arises among self-interested learning-aware agents.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2024

Can LLMs make trade-offs involving stipulated pain and pleasure states?

Pleasure and pain play an important role in human decision making by providing a common currency for resolving motivational conflicts. While Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate detailed descriptions of pleasure and pain experiences, it is an open question whether LLMs can recreate the motivational force of pleasure and pain in choice scenarios - a question which may bear on debates about LLM sentience, understood as the capacity for valenced experiential states. We probed this question using a simple game in which the stated goal is to maximise points, but where either the points-maximising option is said to incur a pain penalty or a non-points-maximising option is said to incur a pleasure reward, providing incentives to deviate from points-maximising behaviour. Varying the intensity of the pain penalties and pleasure rewards, we found that Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Command R+, GPT-4o, and GPT-4o mini each demonstrated at least one trade-off in which the majority of responses switched from points-maximisation to pain-minimisation or pleasure-maximisation after a critical threshold of stipulated pain or pleasure intensity is reached. LLaMa 3.1-405b demonstrated some graded sensitivity to stipulated pleasure rewards and pain penalties. Gemini 1.5 Pro and PaLM 2 prioritised pain-avoidance over points-maximisation regardless of intensity, while tending to prioritise points over pleasure regardless of intensity. We discuss the implications of these findings for debates about the possibility of LLM sentience.

cs.CL↗