arXiv subjects

Bojan Vršnak

Publications and source records attributed to Bojan Vršnak.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Early Evolution of Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in the Vicinity of Coronal Holes

We investigate the deflection and rotation behavior of 49 Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spanning the period from 2010 to 2020 aiming to understand the potential influence of coronal holes (CHs) on their trajectories. We perform the GCS reconstruction in multiple time steps and we consider the difference in the longitude, latitude, and inclination between the first and last GCS reconstructions as possible signatures of deflection/rotation. Furthermore, we examine the presence of nearby CHs at the time of eruption and employ the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) to estimate relevant CH parameters. To assess the potential influence of CHs on the deflection and rotation of CMEs, we calculate the Coronal Hole Influence Parameter (CHIP) for each event and analyse its relationship with their trajectories. A statistically significant difference is observed between CHIP force and the overall change in a CME's direction in the lower corona. The overall change in a CME's direction accounts cumulatively for the change in latitude, longitude, and rotation. This suggests that the CHIP force in the low corona has a significant influence on the overall change in the direction of Earth-directed CMEs. However, as the CME evolves outward, the CHIP force becomes less effective in causing deflection or rotation at greater distances. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the deflection rate of the CMEs and their velocity, suggesting that higher velocities are associated with lower deflection rates. Hence, the velocity of a CME, along with the magnetic-field from CHs, appears to play a significant role in the deflection of CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Probing coronal mass ejections inclination effects with EUHFORIA

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). The central FR axis can be oriented at any angle to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind which are neither homogeneous nor isotropic. Consequently, CMEs with different orientations will encounter different ambient medium conditions and, thus, the interaction of a CME with its surrounding environment will vary depending on the orientation of its FR axis, among other factors. This study aims to understand the effect of inclination on CME propagation. We performed simulations with the EUHFORIA 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. This study focuses on two CMEs modelled as spheromaks with nearly identical properties, differing only by their inclination. We show the effects of CME orientation on sheath evolution, MHD drag, and non-radial flows by analyzing the model data from a swarm of 81 virtual spacecraft scattered across the inner heliospheric. We have found that the sheath duration increases with radial distance from the Sun and that the rate of increase is greater on the flanks of the CME. Non-radial flows within the studied sheath region appear larger outside the ecliptic plane, indicating a "sliding" of the IMF in the out-of ecliptic plane. We found that the calculated drag parameter does not remain constant with radial distance and that the inclination dependence of the drag parameter can not be resolved with our numerical setup.

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arXiv2022

Determination of CME orientation and consequences for their propagation

The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME orientation, especially from image data, remains a challenging task to perform. This study aims to provide a reference to different CME orientation determination methods in the near-Sun environment. Also, it aims to investigate the non-radial flow in the sheath region of the interplanetary CME (ICME) in order to provide the first proxy to relate the ICME orientation with its propagation. We investigated 22 isolated CME-ICME events in the period 2008-2015. We determined the CME orientation in the near-Sun environment using the following: 1) a 3D reconstruction of the CME with the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model applied to coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions and; 2) an ellipse fitting applied to single spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and field data and also investigated the non-radial flow (NRF) in its sheath region. The ability of GCS and ellipse fitting to determine the CME orientation is found to be limited to reliably distinguish only between the high or low inclination of the events. Most of the CME-ICME pairs under investigation were found to be characterized by a low inclination. For the majority of CME-ICME pairs, we obtain consistent estimations of the tilt from remote and in situ data. The observed NRFs in the sheath region show a greater y direction to z direction flow ratio for high-inclination events, indicating that the CME orientation could have an impact on the CME propagation.

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arXiv2022

How the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth -- An analytical model

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

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arXiv2021

Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $γ$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $γ$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($γ\approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

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arXiv2020

Earth-affecting Solar Transients: A Review of Progresses in Solar Cycle 24

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. The Sun Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying time scales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short time scale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction and morphology of CMEs in both 3-D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Sun-to-Earth Observations and Characteristics of Isolated Earth-Impacting Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 2008-2014

A sample of isolated Earth-impacting ICMEs that occurred in the period January 2008 to August 2014 is analysed in order to study in detail the ICME in situ signatures with respect to the type of filament eruption related to the corresponding CME. For Earth-directed CMEs, a kinematical study was performed using the STEREO-A, B COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs and the Heliospheric Imagers HI1. Based on the extrapolated CME kinematics, we identified interacting CMEs, which were excluded from further analysis. Applying this approach, a set of 31 isolated Earth-impacting CMEs was unambiguously identified and related to the in situ measurements recorded by the Wind spacecraft. We classified the events into subsets with respect to the CME source location as well as with respect to the type of the associated filament eruption. Hence, the events are divided into three subsamples: active region (AR) CMEs, disappearing filament (DSF) CMEs, and stealthy CMEs. The related three groups of ICMEs were further divided into two subsets: magnetic obstacle (MO) events (out of which four were stealthy), covering ICMEs that at least partly expose characteristics of flux ropes, and ejecta (EJ) events, not showing such characteristics. In the next step, MO-events were analysed in more detail, considering the magnetic field strengths and the plasma characteristics in three different segments of the ICMEs, defined as the turbulent sheath (TS), the frontal region (FR), and the MO itself. The analysis revealed various well-defined correlations for AR, DSF, and stealthy ICMEs, which we interpreted considering basic physical concepts. Our results support the hypothesis that ICMEs show different signatures depending on the in situ spacecraft trajectory, in terms of apex versus flank hits.

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arXiv2020

Evolution of coronal mass ejections and the corresponding Forbush decreases: modelling vs multi-spacecraft observations

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head-on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modelling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modelling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (ForbMod). We find a reasonable agreement of the ForbMod model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modelled FDs reflect well the CME evolution.

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arXiv2020

On the Interaction of Galactic Cosmic Rays with Heliospheric Shocks During Forbush Decreases

Forbush decreases (FDs) are depletions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) count rate that last typically for about a week and can be caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or corotating interacting regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs that drive shocks cause large FDs that often show a two-step decrease where the first step is attributed to the shock/sheath region, while the second step is attributed to the closed magnetic structure. Since the difference in size of shock and sheath region is significant, and since there are observed effects that can be related to shocks and not necessarily to the sheath region we expect that the physical mechanisms governing the interaction with GCRs in these two regions are different. We therefore aim to analyse interaction of GCRs with heliospheric shocks only. We approximate the shock by a structure where the magnetic field linearly changes with position within this structure. We assume protons of different energy, different pitch angle and different incoming direction. We also vary the shock parameters such as the magnetic field strength and orientation, as well as the shock thickness. The results demonstrate that protons with higher energies are less likely to be reflected. Also, thicker shocks and shocks with stronger field reflect protons more efficiently.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Heliospheric Evolution of Magnetic Clouds

Interplanetary evolution of eleven magnetic clouds (MCs) recorded by at least two radially aligned spacecraft is studied. The in situ magnetic field measurements are fitted to a cylindrically symmetric Gold-Hoyle force-free uniform-twist flux-rope configuration. The analysis reveals that in a statistical sense the expansion of studied MCs is compatible with self-similar behavior. However, individual events expose a large scatter of expansion rates, ranging from very weak to very strong expansion. Individually, only four events show an expansion rate compatible with the isotropic self-similar expansion. The results indicate that the expansion has to be much stronger when MCs are still close to the Sun than in the studied 0.47 - 4.8 AU distance range. The evolution of the magnetic field strength shows a large deviation from the behavior expected for the case of an isotropic self-similar expansion. In the statistical sense, as well as in most of the individual events, the inferred magnetic field decreases much slower than expected. Only three events show a behavior compatible with a self-similar expansion. There is also a discrepancy between the magnetic field decrease and the increase of the MC size, indicating that magnetic reconnection and geometrical deformations play a significant role in the MC evolution. About half of the events show a decay of the electric current as expected for the self-similar expansion. Statistically, the inferred axial magnetic flux is broadly consistent with it remaining constant. However, events characterized by large magnetic flux show a clear tendency of decreasing flux.

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arXiv2018

An Analytical Diffusion-Expansion Model for Forbush Decreases Caused by Flux Ropes

We present an analytical diffusion-expansion Forbush decrease (FD) model ForbMod which is based on the widely used approach of the initially empty, closed magnetic structure (i.e. flux rope) which fills up slowly with particles by perpendicular diffusion. The model is restricted to explain only the depression caused by the magnetic structure of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). We use remote CME observations and a 3D reconstruction method (the Graduated Cylindrical Shell method) to constrain initial boundary conditions of the FD model and take into account CME evolutionary properties by incorporating flux rope expansion. Several flux rope expansion modes are considered, which can lead to different FD characteristics. In general, the model is qualitatively in agreement with observations, whereas quantitative agreement depends on the diffusion coefficient and the expansion properties (interplay of the diffusion and the expansion). A case study was performed to explain the FD observed 2014 May 30. The observed FD was fitted quite well by ForbMod for all expansion modes using only the diffusion coefficient as a free parameter, where the diffusion parameter was found to correspond to expected range of values. Our study shows that in general the model is able to explain the global properties of FD caused by FR and can thus be used to help understand the underlying physics in case studies.

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arXiv2018

The Dependence of the Peak Velocity of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams as Measured in the Ecliptic by ACE and the STEREO satellites on the Area and Co-Latitude of their Solar Source Coronal Holes

We study the properties of 115 coronal holes in the time-range from 2010/08 to 2017/03, the peak velocities of the corresponding high-speed streams as measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU, and the corresponding changes of the Kp index as marker of their geo-effectiveness. We find that the peak velocities of high-speed streams depend strongly on both the ar- eas and the co-latitudes of their solar source coronal holes with regard to the heliospheric latitude of the satellites. Therefore, the co-latitude of their source coronal hole is an im- portant parameter for the prediction of the high-speed stream properties near the Earth. We derive the largest solar wind peak velocities normalized to the coronal hole areas for coronal holes located near the solar equator, and that they linearly decrease with increas- ing latitudes of the coronal holes. For coronal holes located at latitudes & 60°, they turn statistically to zero, indicating that the associated high-speed streams have a high chance to miss the Earth. Similar, the Kp index per coronal hole area is highest for the coronal holes located near the solar equator and strongly decreases with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes. We interpret these results as an effect of the three-dimensional propaga- tion of high-speed streams in the heliosphere, i.e., high-speed streams arising from coro- nal holes near the solar equator propagate in direction towards and directly hit the Earth, whereas solar wind streams arising from coronal holes at higher solar latitudes only graze or even miss the Earth.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Using Forbush decreases to derive the transit time of ICMEs propagating from 1 AU to Mars

The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earth's orbit (1 AU) to Mars (~ 1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related to ICMEs and their shock fronts cause the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be de- tected as a reduction of galactic cosmic rays measured on-ground. We have used galactic cosmic ray (GCR) data from in-situ measurements at Earth, from both STEREO A and B as well as GCR measurements by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) on the surface of Mars. A set of ICME events has been selected during the periods when Earth (or STEREO A or B) and Mars locations were nearly aligned on the same side of the Sun in the ecliptic plane (so-called opposition phase). Such lineups allow us to estimate the ICMEs' transit times between 1 and 1.5 AU by estimating the delay time of the corresponding Forbush decreases measured at each location. We investigate the evolution of their propagation speeds before and after passing Earth's orbit and find that the deceleration of ICMEs due to their interaction with the ambient solar wind may continue beyond 1 AU. We also find a substantial variance of the speed evolution among different events revealing the dynamic and diverse nature of eruptive solar events. Furthermore, the results are compared to simulation data obtained from two CME propagation models, namely the Drag-Based Model and ENLIL plus cone model.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2014

Initiation of Coronal Mass Ejections by Sunspot Rotation

We study a filament eruption, two-ribbon flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred in Active Region NOAA 10898 on 6 July 2006. The filament was located South of a strong sunspot that dominated the region. In the evolution leading up to the eruption, and for some time after it, a counter-clockwise rotation of the sunspot of about 30 degrees was observed. We suggest that the rotation triggered the eruption by progressively expanding the magnetic field above the filament. To test this scenario, we study the effect of twisting the initially potential field overlying a pre-existing flux-rope, using three-dimensional zero-$β$ MHD simulations. We first consider a relatively simple and symmetric system, and then study a more complex and asymmetric magnetic configuration, whose photospheric flux distribution and coronal structure are guided by the observations and a potential field extrapolation. In both cases, we find that the twisting leads to the expansion of the overlying field. As a consequence of the progressively reduced magnetic tension, the flux-rope quasi-statically adapts to the changed environmental field, rising slowly. Once the tension is sufficiently reduced, a distinct second phase of evolution occurs where the flux-rope enters an unstable regime characterized by a strong acceleration. Our simulations thus suggest a new mechanism for the triggering of eruptions in the vicinity of rotating sunspots.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

STEREO-A and PROBA2 Quadrature Observations of Reflections of three EUV Waves from a Coronal Hole

We investigate the interaction of three consecutive large-scale coronal waves with a polar coronal hole, simultaneously observed on-disk by the Solar TErrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A spacecraft and on the limb by the PRoject for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) spacecraft on January 27, 2011. All three extreme-ultraviolet(EUV) waves originate from the same active region NOAA 11149 positioned at N30E15 in the STEREO-A field-of-view and on the limb in PROBA2. We derive for the three primary EUV waves start velocities in the range of ~310 km/s for the weakest up to ~500 km/s for the strongest event. Each large-scale wave is reflected at the border of the extended coronal hole at the southern polar region. The average velocities of the reflected waves are found to be smaller than the mean velocities of their associated direct waves. However, the kinematical study also reveals that in each case the end velocity of the primary wave matches the initial velocity of the reflected wave. In all three events the primary and reflected waves obey the Huygens-Fresnel principle, as the incident angle with ~10° to the normal is of the same size as the angle of reflection. The correlation between the speed and the strength of the primary EUV waves, the homologous appearance of both the primary and the reflected waves, and in particular the EUV wave reflections themselves implicate that the observed EUV transients are indeed nonlinear large-amplitude MHD waves.

astro-ph.SR↗