arXiv subjects

Bradley Sturt

Publications and source records attributed to Bradley Sturt.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Value of Human Expertise

We consider optimization applications with unknown parameters where the decision maker believes that the optimal value of the nominal problem-the optimization problem they would have solved if the true parameters were known-is unlikely to be large. This belief derives from information that humans have that is not captured in datasets, obtained from domain knowledge and interacting with the physical world. We propose an approach to evaluating policies that provides tighter performance guarantees if the decision maker's belief happens to be correct. Our main result shows that if computing a policy's worst-case performance is a convex program, then the value of human expertise-the maximum improvement in performance guarantees that can be obtained from the belief about the nominal problem-is equal to the minimax gap of a max-min problem. We illustrate our developments in assortment optimization and shortest path problems.

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arXiv2025

Assortment Optimization and the Sample Average Approximation

We consider a simple approach to solving assortment optimization under the random utility maximization model. The approach uses Monte-Carlo simulation to construct a ranking-based choice model that serves as a proxy for the true choice model, followed by finding an assortment that is optimal with respect to that proxy. In this paper, we make that approach more viable by developing faster algorithms for finding assortments that are optimal under ranking-based choice models. Our algorithms are based on mixed-integer programming and consist of stronger formulations as well as new structural and algorithmic results related to Benders cuts. We demonstrate that our algorithms - without any heuristics or parameter tuning - can offer more than a 20x speedup in real-world settings with thousands of products and samples. Equipped with our algorithms, we showcase the value of using the sample average approximation to solve assortment optimization problems for which no practically efficient algorithms are known.

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arXiv2025

Group fairness in dynamic refugee assignment

Ensuring that refugees and asylum seekers thrive (e.g., find employment) in their host countries is a profound humanitarian goal, and a primary driver of employment is the geographic location within a host country to which the refugee or asylum seeker is assigned. Recent research has proposed and implemented algorithms that assign refugees and asylum seekers to geographic locations in a manner that maximizes the average employment across all arriving refugees. While these algorithms can have substantial overall positive impact, using data from two industry collaborators we show that the impact of these algorithms can vary widely across key subgroups based on country of origin, age, or educational background. Thus motivated, we develop a simple and interpretable framework for incorporating group fairness into the dynamic refugee assignment problem. In particular, the framework can flexibly incorporate many existing and future definitions of group fairness from the literature (e.g., Random, Proportionally Optimized within-group, and MaxMin). Equipped with our framework, we propose two bid-price algorithms that maximize overall employment while simultaneously yielding provable group fairness guarantees. Through extensive numerical experiments using various definitions of group fairness and real-world data from the U.S. and the Netherlands, we show that our algorithms can yield substantial improvements in group fairness compared to an offline benchmark fairness constraints, with only small relative decreases ($\approx$ 1%-5%) in global performance.

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arXiv2024

Improving the Security of United States Elections with Robust Optimization

For more than a century, election officials across the United States have inspected voting machines before elections using a procedure called Logic and Accuracy Testing (LAT). This procedure consists of election officials casting a test deck of ballots into each voting machine and confirming the machine produces the expected vote total for each candidate. We bring a scientific perspective to LAT by introducing the first formal approach to designing test decks with rigorous security guarantees. Specifically, our approach employs robust optimization to find test decks that are guaranteed to detect any voting machine misconfiguration that would cause votes to be swapped across candidates. Out of all the test decks with this security guarantee, our robust optimization problem yields the test deck with the minimum number of ballots, thereby minimizing implementation costs for election officials. To facilitate deployment at scale, we develop a practically efficient exact algorithm for solving our robust optimization problems based on the cutting plane method. In partnership with the Michigan Bureau of Elections, we retrospectively applied our approach to all 6928 ballot styles from Michigan's November 2022 general election; this retrospective study reveals that the test decks with rigorous security guarantees obtained by our approach require, on average, only 1.2% more ballots than current practice. Our approach has since been piloted in real-world elections by the Michigan Bureau of Elections as a low-cost way to improve election security and increase public trust in democratic institutions.

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arXiv2024

The Blessing of Strategic Customers in Personalized Pricing

We consider a feature-based personalized pricing problem in which the buyer is strategic: given the seller's pricing policy, the buyer can augment the features that they reveal to the seller to obtain a low price for the product. We model the seller's pricing problem as a stochastic program over an infinite-dimensional space of pricing policies where the radii by which the buyer can perturb the features are strictly positive. We establish that the sample average approximation of this problem is asymptotically consistent; that is, we prove that the objective value of the sample average approximation converges almost surely to the objective value of the stochastic problem as the number of samples tends to infinity under mild technical assumptions. This consistency guarantee thus shows that incorporating strategic consumer behavior into a data-driven pricing problem can, in addition to making the pricing problem more realistic, also help prevent overfitting.

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arXiv2024

The Value of Robust Assortment Optimization Under Ranking-based Choice Models

We study a class of robust assortment optimization problems that was proposed by Farias, Jagabathula, and Shah (2013). The goal in these problems is to find an assortment that maximizes a firm's worst-case expected revenue under all ranking-based choice models that are consistent with the historical sales data generated by the firm's past assortments. We establish for various settings that these robust optimization problems can either be solved in polynomial-time or can be reformulated as compact mixed-integer optimization problems. To establish our results, we prove that optimal assortments for these robust optimization problems have a simple structure that is closely related to the structure of revenue-ordered assortments. We use our results to show how robust optimization can be used to overcome the risks of estimate-then-optimize and the need for experimentation with ranking-based choice models in the overparameterized regime.

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arXiv2023

A nonparametric algorithm for optimal stopping based on robust optimization

Optimal stopping is a fundamental class of stochastic dynamic optimization problems with numerous applications in finance and operations management. We introduce a new approach for solving computationally-demanding stochastic optimal stopping problems with known probability distributions. The approach uses simulation to construct a robust optimization problem that approximates the stochastic optimal stopping problem to any arbitrary accuracy; we then solve the robust optimization problem to obtain near-optimal Markovian stopping rules for the stochastic optimal stopping problem. In this paper, we focus on designing algorithms for solving the robust optimization problems that approximate the stochastic optimal stopping problems. These robust optimization problems are challenging to solve because they require optimizing over the infinite-dimensional space of all Markovian stopping rules. We overcome this challenge by characterizing the structure of optimal Markovian stopping rules for the robust optimization problems. In particular, we show that optimal Markovian stopping rules for the robust optimization problems have a structure that is surprisingly simple and finite-dimensional. We leverage this structure to develop an exact reformulation of the robust optimization problem as a zero-one bilinear program over totally unimodular constraints. We show that the bilinear program can be solved in polynomial time in special cases, establish computational complexity results for general cases, and develop polynomial-time heuristics by relating the bilinear program to the maximal closure problem from graph theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our algorithms for solving the robust optimization problems are practical and can outperform state-of-the-art simulation-based algorithms in the context of widely-studied stochastic optimal stopping problems from high-dimensional option pricing.

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arXiv2020

Two-stage sample robust optimization

We investigate a simple approximation scheme, based on overlapping linear decision rules, for solving data-driven two-stage distributionally robust optimization problems with the type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set. Our main result establishes that this approximation scheme is asymptotically optimal for two-stage stochastic linear optimization problems; that is, under mild assumptions, the optimal cost and optimal first-stage decisions obtained by approximating the robust optimization problem converge to those of the underlying stochastic problem as the number of data points grows to infinity. These guarantees notably apply to two-stage stochastic problems that do not have relatively complete recourse, which arise frequently in applications. In this context, we show through numerical experiments that the approximation scheme is practically tractable and produces decisions which significantly outperform those obtained from state-of-the-art data-driven alternatives.

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arXiv2020

Dynamic optimization with side information

We develop a tractable and flexible approach for incorporating side information into dynamic optimization under uncertainty. The proposed framework uses predictive machine learning methods (such as $k$-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for a class of machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed approach is asymptotically optimal for multi-period stochastic programming with side information. We also describe a general-purpose approximation for these optimization problems, based on overlapping linear decision rules, which is computationally tractable and produces high-quality solutions for dynamic problems with many stages. Across a variety of examples in inventory management, finance, and shipment planning, our method achieves improvements of up to 15\% over alternatives and requires less than one minute of computation time on problems with twelve stages.

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