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Brandon C. Kelly

Publications and source records attributed to Brandon C. Kelly.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

GPU-Accelerated Hierarchical Bayesian Inference with Application to Modeling Cosmic Populations: CUDAHM

We describe a computational framework for hierarchical Bayesian inference with simple (typically single-plate) parametric graphical models that uses graphics processing units (GPUs) to accelerate computations, enabling deployment on very large datasets. Its C++ implementation, CUDAHM (CUDA for Hierarchical Models) exploits conditional independence between instances of a plate, facilitating massively parallel exploration of the replication parameter space using the single instruction, multiple data architecture of GPUs. It provides support for constructing Metropolis-within-Gibbs samplers that iterate between GPU-accelerated robust adaptive Metropolis sampling of plate-level parameters conditional on upper-level parameters, and Metropolis-Hastings sampling of upper-level parameters on the host processor conditional on the GPU results. CUDAHM is motivated by demographic problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression problems must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties. We describe a thinned latent point process framework for modeling such demographic data. We demonstrate accurate GPU-accelerated parametric conditional density deconvolution for simulated populations of up to 300,000 objects in ~1 hour using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. Supplementary material provides details about the CUDAHM API and the demonstration problem.

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X-ray constraints on the local supermassive black hole occupation fraction

Distinct seed formation mechanisms are imprinted upon the fraction of dwarf galaxies currently containing a central supermassive black hole. Seeding by Pop III remnants is expected to produce a higher occupation fraction than is generated with direct gas collapse precursors. Chandra observations of nearby early-type galaxies can directly detect even low-level supermassive black hole activity, and the active fraction immediately provides a firm lower limit to the occupation fraction. Here, we use the volume-limited AMUSE surveys of ~200 optically-selected early-type galaxies to characterize simultaneously, for the first time, the occupation fraction and the scaling of nuclear X-ray luminosity with stellar mass, accounting for intrinsic scatter, measurement uncertainties, and X-ray limits. For early-type galaxies with log(M_star/M_sun)<10, we obtain a lower limit to the occupation fraction of >20% (at 95% confidence), but full occupation cannot be excluded. The preferred dependence of log(L_X) upon log(M_star) has a slope of about 0.7-0.8, consistent with the "downsizing" trend previously identified from the AMUSE dataset, and a uniform Eddington efficiency is disfavored at ~2 sigma. We provide guidelines for the future precision with which these parameters may be refined with larger or more sensitive samples.

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Data Mining for Gravitationally Lensed Quasars

Gravitationally lensed (GL) quasars are brighter than their unlensed counterparts and produce images with distinctive morphological signatures. Past searches and target selection algorithms, in particular the Sloan Quasar Lens Search (SQLS), have relied on basic morphological criteria, which were applied to samples of bright, spectroscopically confirmed quasars. The SQLS techniques are not sufficient for searching into new surveys (e.g. DES, PS1, LSST), because spectroscopic information is not readily available and the large data volume requires higher purity in target/candidate selection. We carry out a systematic exploration of machine learning techniques and demonstrate that a two step strategy can be highly effective. In the first step we use catalog-level information ($griz$+WISE magnitudes, second moments) to preselect targets, using artificial neural networks. The accepted targets are then inspected with pixel-by-pixel pattern recognition algorithms (Gradient-Boosted Trees), to form a final set of candidates. The results from this procedure can be used to further refine the simpler SQLS algorithms, with a twofold (or threefold) gain in purity and the same (or $80\%$) completeness at target-selection stage, or a purity of $70\%$ and a completeness of $60\%$ after the candidate-selection step. Simpler photometric searches in $griz$+WISE based on colour cuts would provide samples with $7\%$ purity or less. Our technique is extremely fast, as a list of candidates can be obtained from a stage III experiment (e.g. DES catalog/database) in {a few} CPU hours. The techniques are easily extendable to Stage IV experiments like LSST with the addition of time domain information.

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The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Technical Overview

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project (SDSS-RM) is a dedicated multi-object RM experiment that has spectroscopically monitored a sample of 849 broad-line quasars in a single 7 deg$^2$ field with the SDSS-III BOSS spectrograph. The RM quasar sample is flux-limited to i_psf=21.7 mag, and covers a redshift range of 0.1 0.3, and will investigate the prospects of RM with all major broad lines covered in optical spectroscopy. SDSS-RM will provide guidance on future multi-object RM campaigns on larger scales, and is aiming to deliver more than tens of BLR lag detections for a homogeneous sample of quasars. We describe the motivation, design and implementation of this program, and outline the science impact expected from the resulting data for RM and general quasar science.

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Flexible and Scalable Methods for Quantifying Stochastic Variability in the Era of Massive Time-Domain Astronomical Data Sets

We present the use of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models as a method for estimating the variability features of a light curve, and in particular its power spectral density (PSD). CARMA models fully account for irregular sampling and measurement errors, making them valuable for quantifying variability, forecasting and interpolating light curves, and for variability-based classification. We show that the PSD of a CARMA model can be expressed as a sum of Lorentzian functions, which makes them extremely flexible and able to model a broad range of PSDs. We present the likelihood function for light curves sampled from CARMA processes, placing them on a statistically rigorous foundation, and we present a Bayesian method to infer the probability distribution of the PSD given the measured lightcurve. Because calculation of the likelihood function scales linearly with the number of data points, CARMA modeling scales to current and future massive time-domain data sets. We conclude by applying our CARMA modeling approach to light curves for an X-ray binary, two AGN, a long-period variable star, and an RR-Lyrae star, in order to illustrate their use, applicability, and interpretation.

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The Luminosity Function at z~8 from 97 Y-band dropouts: Inferences About Reionization

[Abbreviated] We present the largest search to date for $z\sim8$ Lyman break galaxies (LBGs) based on 350 arcmin$^2$ of HST observations in the V-, Y-, J- and H-bands from the Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) survey. The BoRG dataset includes $\sim$50 arcmin$^2$ of new data and deeper observations of two previous BoRG pointings, from which we present 9 new $z\sim8$ LBG candidates, bringing the total number of BoRG LBGs to 38 with $25.5\leqslant m_{J} \leqslant 27.6$ (AB system). We introduce a new Bayesian formalism for estimating the galaxy luminosity function (LF), which does not require binning (and thus smearing) of the data and includes a likelihood based on the formally correct binomial distribution as opposed to the often used approximate Poisson distribution. We demonstrate the utility of the new method on a sample of $97$ LBGs that combines the bright BoRG galaxies with the fainter sources published in Bouwens et al. (2012) from the HUDF and ERS programs. We show that the $z\sim8$ LF is well described by a Schechter function with a characteristic magnitude $M^\star = -20.15^{+0.29}_{-0.38}$, a faint-end slope of $α= -1.87^{+0.26}_{-0.26}$, and a number density of $\log_{10} ϕ^\star [\textrm{Mpc}^{-3}] = -3.24^{+0.25}_{-0.24}$. Integrated down to $M=-17.7$ this LF yields a luminosity density, $\log_{10} ε[\textrm{erg}/\textrm{s/Hz/Mpc}^{3}] = 25.52^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$. Our LF analysis is consistent with previously published determinations within 1$σ$. We discuss the implication of our study for the physics of reionization. By assuming theoretically motivated priors on the clumping factor and the photon escape fraction we show that the UV LF from galaxy samples down to $M=-17.7$ can ionize only 10-50% of the neutral hydrogen at $z\sim8$. Full reionization would require extending the LF down to $M=-15$.

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Stochastic Modeling of the Fermi/LAT Gamma-ray Blazar Variability

We study the gamma-ray variability of 13 blazars observed with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). These blazars have the most complete light curves collected during the first 4 years of the Fermi sky survey. We model them with the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process or a mixture of the OU processes. The OU process has power spectral density (PSD) proportional to 1/f^alpha with alpha changing at a characteristic time scale, tau_0, from 0 (tau>>tau_0) to 2 (tau<<tau_0). The PSD of the mixed OU process has two characteristic time scales and an additional intermediate region with 0<alpha<2. We show that the OU model provides a good description of the Fermi/LAT light curves of three blazars in our sample. For the first time we constrain a characteristic gamma-ray time scale of variability in two BL Lac sources, 3C 66A and PKS 2155-304 (tau_0=25 day and tau_0=43 day, respectively, in the observer's frame), which are longer than the soft X-ray time scales detected in blazars and Seyfert galaxies. We find that the mixed OU process approximates the light curves of the remaining 10 blazars better than the OU process. We derive limits on their long and short characteristic time scales, and infer that their Fermi/LAT PSDs resemble a power-law function. We constrain the PSD slopes for all but one source in the sample. We find hints for sub-hour Fermi/LAT variability in four flat spectrum radio quasars. We discuss the implications of our results for theoretical models of blazar variability.

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Jet Emission in Young Radio Sources: a Fermi-LAT Gamma-ray View

We investigate the contribution of the beamed jet component to the high energy emission in young and compact extragalactic radio sources, focusing for the first time on the gamma-ray band. We derive predictions on the gamma-ray luminosities associated with the relativistic jet assuming a leptonic radiative model. The high energy emission is produced via Compton scattering by the relativistic electrons in a spherical region at the considered scales ($\lesssim$10 kpc). Simulations show a wide range of gamma-ray luminosities, with intensities up to $\sim10^{46}-10^{48}$ erg s$^{-1}$ depending on the assumed jet parameters. We find a highly linear relation between the simulated X-ray and gamma-ray luminosities that can be used to select candidates for a gamma-ray detection. We compare the simulated luminosity distributions in the radio, X-ray and gamma-ray regimes with observations for the largest sample of X-ray detected young radio quasars. Our analysis of $\sim$4-year Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data does not give any statistically significant detection. However, the majority of the model-predicted gamma-ray fluxes for the sample are near or below the current Fermi-LAT flux threshold and compatible with the derived upper limits. Our study gives constraints on the minimum jet power ($L_{jet,kin}/L_{disk}>0.01$), on a potential jet contribution to the X-ray emission in the most compact sources ($\lesssim1$ kpc) and on the particles to magnetic field energy density ratio in broad agreement with equipartition assumption.

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Indications of a sub-linear and non-universal Kennicutt-Schmidt relationship

We estimate the parameters of the Kennicutt-Schmidt (KS) relationship, linking the star formation rate (Sigma_SFR) to the molecular gas surface density (Sigma_mol), in the STING sample of nearby disk galaxies using a hierarchical Bayesian method. This method rigorously treats measurement uncertainties, and provides accurate parameter estimates for both individual galaxies and the entire population. Assuming standard conversion factors to estimate Sigma_SFR and Sigma_mol from the observations, we find that the KS parameters vary between galaxies, indicating that no universal relationship holds for all galaxies. The KS slope of the whole population is 0.76, with the 2sigma range extending from 0.58 to 0.94. These results imply that the molecular gas depletion time is not constant, but varies from galaxy to galaxy, and increases with the molecular gas surface density. Therefore, other galactic properties besides just Sigma_mol affect Sigma_SFR, such as the gas fraction or stellar mass. The non-universality of the KS relationship indicates that a comprehensive theory of star formation must take into account additional physical processes that may vary from galaxy to galaxy.

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Quasar Black Hole Mass Estimates in the Era of Time Domain Astronomy

We investigate the dependence of the normalization of the high-frequency part of the X-ray and optical power spectral densities (PSD) on black hole mass for a sample of 39 active galactic nuclei (AGN) with black hole masses estimated from reverberation mapping or dynamical modeling. We obtained new Swift observations of PG 1426+015, which has the largest estimated black hole mass of the AGN in our sample. We develop a novel statistical method to estimate the PSD from a lightcurve of photon counts with arbitrary sampling, eliminating the need to bin a lightcurve to achieve Gaussian statistics, and we use this technique to estimate the X-ray variability parameters for the faint AGN in our sample. We find that the normalization of the high-frequency X-ray PSD is inversely proportional to black hole mass. We discuss how to use this scaling relationship to obtain black hole mass estimates from the short time-scale X-ray variability amplitude with precision ~ 0.38 dex. The amplitude of optical variability on time scales of days is also anti-correlated with black hole mass, but with larger scatter. Instead, the optical variability amplitude exhibits the strongest anti-correlation with luminosity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for estimating black hole mass from the amplitude of AGN variability.

astro-ph.HE

A Quasar-Galaxy Mixing Diagram: Quasar Spectral Energy Distribution Shapes in the Optical to Near-Infrared

We define a quasar-galaxy mixing diagram using the slopes of their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) from 1μm to 3000Å and from 1μm to 3μm in the rest frame. The mixing diagram can easily distinguish among quasar-dominated, galaxy-dominated and reddening-dominated SED shapes. By studying the position of the 413 XMM selected Type 1 AGN in the wide-field "Cosmic Evolution Survey" (COSMOS) in the mixing diagram, we find that a combination of the Elvis et al. (1994, hereafter E94) quasar SED with various contributions from galaxy emission and some dust reddening is remarkably effective in describing the SED shape from 0.3-3μm for large ranges of redshift, luminosity, black hole mass and Eddington ratio of type 1 AGN. In particular, the location in the mixing diagram of the highest luminosity AGN is very close (within 1σ) to that of the E94 SED. The mixing diagram can also be used to estimate the host galaxy fraction and reddening in quasar. We also show examples of some outliers which might be AGN in different evolutionary stages compared to the majority of AGN in the quasar-host galaxy co-evolution cycle.

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The Demographics of Broad Line Quasars in the Mass-Luminosity Plane II. Black Hole Mass and Eddington Ratio Functions

We employ a flexible Bayesian technique to estimate the black hole mass and Eddington ratio functions for Type 1 (i.e., broad line) quasars from a uniformly-selected data set of ~58,000 quasars from the SDSS DR7. We find that the SDSS becomes significantly incomplete at M_{BH} < 3 x 10^8 M_{Sun} or L / L_{Edd} < 0.07, and that the number densities of Type 1 quasars continue to increase down to these limits. Both the mass and Eddington ratio functions show evidence of downsizing, with the most massive and highest Eddington ratio black holes experiencing Type 1 quasar phases first, although the Eddington ratio number densities are flat at z < 2. We estimate the maximum Eddington ratio of Type 1 quasars in the observable Universe to be L / L_{Edd} ~ 3. Consistent with our results in Paper I, we do not find statistical evidence for a so-called "sub-Eddington boundary" in the mass-luminosity plane of broad line quasars, and demonstrate that such an apparent boundary in the observed distribution can be caused by selection effect and errors in virial BH mass estimates. Based on the typical Eddington ratio in a given mass bin, we estimate typical growth times for the black holes in Type 1 quasars and find that they are typically comparable to or longer than the age of the universe, implying an earlier phase of accelerated (i.e., with higher Eddington ratios) and possibly obscured growth. The large masses probed by our sample imply that most of our black holes reside in what are locally early type galaxies, and we interpret our results within the context of models of self-regulated black hole growth.

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Evidence for a non-universal Kennicutt-Schmidt relationship using hierarchical Bayesian linear regression

For investigating the relationship between the star formation rate and gas surface density, we develop a Bayesian linear regression method that rigorously treats measurement uncertainties and accounts for hierarchical data structure. The hierarchical method simultaneously estimates the intercept, slope, and scatter about the regression line of each individual subject and the population. Using synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that the method recovers the underlying parameters of both the individuals and the population, especially when compared to commonly employed ordinary least squares techniques, such as the bisector fit. We apply the hierarchical method to estimate the Kennicutt-Schmidt (KS) parameters of a sample of spiral galaxies compiled by Bigiel et al. (2008). We find significant variation in the KS parameters, indicating that no single relationship holds for all galaxies. This suggests that the relationship between molecular gas and star formation differs between galaxies, possibly due to the influence of other properties within a given galaxy, such as metallicity, molecular gas fraction, or stellar mass. In four galaxies the slope estimates are sub-linear (at the 95% level). We estimate the mean index of the KS relationship for the population to be 0.84, with 95% range [0.63, 1.0]. For the galaxies with sub-linear KS relationships, a possible interpretation is that CO emission is tracing some molecular gas that is not directly associated with star formation. Equivalently, a sub-linear KS relationship may be indicative of an increasing gas depletion time at higher surface densities, as traced by CO emission. The Bayesian method can account for all sources of uncertainties, including variations in the conversion of observed intensities to star formation rates and gas surface densities, and is therefore well suited for a thorough statistical analysis of the KS law.

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Recalibration of the virial factor and M-sigma relation for local active galaxies

Determining the virial factor of the broad-line region (BLR) gas is crucial for calibrating AGN black hole mass estimators, since the measured line-of-sight velocity needs to be converted into the intrinsic virial velocity. The average virial factor has been empirically calibrated based on the M-sigma relation of quiescent galaxies, but the claimed values differ by a factor of two in recent studies. We investigate the origin of the difference by measuring the M-sigma relation using an updated galaxy sample from the literature, and explore the dependence of the virial factor on various fitting methods. We find that the discrepancy is primarily caused by the sample selection, while the difference stemming from the various regression methods is marginal. However, we generally prefer the FITEXY and Bayesian estimators based on Monte Carlo simulations for the M-sigma relation. In addition, the choice of independent variable in the regression leads to ~0.2 dex variation in the virial factor inferred from the calibration process. Based on the determined virial factor, we present the updated M-sigma relation of local active galaxies.

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Disclosing the Radio Loudness Distribution Dichotomy in Quasars: An Unbiased Monte Carlo Approach Applied to the SDSS-FIRST Quasar Sample

We investigate the dichotomy in the radio loudness distribution of quasars by modelling their radio emission and various selection effects using a Monte Carlo approach. The existence of two physically distinct quasar populations, the radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars, is controversial and over the last decade a bimodal distribution of radio loudness of quasars has been both affirmed and disputed. We model the quasar radio luminosity distribution with simple unimodal and bimodal distribution functions. The resulting simulated samples are compared to a fiducial sample of 8,300 quasars drawn from the SDSS DR7 Quasar Catalog and combined with radio observations from the FIRST survey. Our results indicate that the SDSS-FIRST sample is best described by a radio loudness distribution which consists of two components, with 12+/-1 % of sources in the radio-loud component. On the other hand, the evidence for a local minimum in the loudness distribution (bimodality) is not strong and we find that previous claims for its existence were probably affected by the incompleteness of the FIRST survey close to its faint limit. We also investigate the redshift and luminosity dependence of the radio loudness distribution and find tentative evidence that at high redshift radio-loud quasars were rarer, on average "louder", and exhibited a smaller range in radio loudness. In agreement with other recent work, we conclude that the SDSS-FIRST sample strongly suggests that the radio loudness distribution of quasars is not a universal function, and that more complex models than presented here are needed to fully explain available observations.

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The linewidth-size relationship in the dense ISM of the Central Molecular Zone

The linewidth (sigma) - size (R) relationship has been extensively measured and analysed, in both the local ISM and in nearby normal galaxies. Generally, a power-law describes the relationship well with an index ranging from 0.2-0.6, now referred to as one of "Larson's Relationships." The nature of turbulence and star formation is considered to be intimately related to these relationships, so evaluating the sigma-R correlations in various environments is important for developing a comprehensive understanding of the ISM. We measure the sigma-R relationship in the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) of the Galactic Centre using spectral line observations of the high density tracers N2H+, HCN, H13CN, and HCO+. We use dendrograms, which map the hierarchical nature of the position-position-velocity (PPV) data, to compute sigma and R of contiguous structures. The dispersions range from ~2-30 km/s in structures spanning sizes 2-40 pc, respectively. By performing Bayesian inference, we show that a power-law with exponent 0.3-1.1 can reasonably describe the sigma-R trend. We demonstrate that the derived sigma-R relationship is independent of the locations in the PPV dataset where sigma and R are measured. The uniformity in the sigma-R relationship suggests turbulence in the CMZ is driven on the large scales beyond >30 pc. We compare the CMZ sigma-R relationship to that measured in the Galactic molecular cloud Perseus. The exponents between the two systems are similar, suggestive of a connection between the turbulent properties within a cloud to its ambient medium. Yet, the velocity dispersion in the CMZ is systematically higher, resulting in a coefficient that is nearly five times larger. The systematic enhancement of turbulent velocities may be due to the combined effects of increased star formation activity, larger densities, and higher pressures relative to the local ISM.

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A Description of Quasar Variability Measured Using Repeated SDSS and POSS Imaging

We provide a quantitative description and statistical interpretation of the optical continuum variability of quasars. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) has obtained repeated imaging in five UV-to-IR photometric bands for 33,881 spectroscopically confirmed quasars. About 10,000 quasars have an average of 60 observations in each band obtained over a decade along Stripe 82 (S82), whereas the remaining ~25,000 have 2-3 observations due to scan overlaps. The observed time lags span the range from a day to almost 10 years, and constrain quasar variability at rest-frame time lags of up to 4 years, and at rest-frame wavelengths from 1000A to 6000A. We publicly release a user-friendly catalog of quasars from the SDSS Data Release 7 that have been observed at least twice in SDSS or once in both SDSS and the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey, and we use it to analyze the ensemble properties of quasar variability. Based on a damped random walk (DRW) model defined by a characteristic time scale and an asymptotic variability amplitude that scale with the luminosity, black hole mass, and rest wavelength for individual quasars calibrated in S82, we can fully explain the ensemble variability statistics of the non-S82 quasars such as the exponential distribution of large magnitude changes. All available data are consistent with the DRW model as a viable description of the optical continuum variability of quasars on time scales of ~5-2000 days in the rest frame. We use these models to predict the incidence of quasar contamination in transient surveys such as those from PTF and LSST.

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Dust SEDs in the era of Herschel and Planck: a Hierarchical Bayesian fitting technique

We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for fitting infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of dust emission to observed fluxes. Under the standard assumption of optically thin single temperature (T) sources the dust SED as represented by a power--law modified black body is subject to a strong degeneracy between T and the spectral index beta. The traditional non-hierarchical approaches, typically based on chi-square minimization, are severely limited by this degeneracy, as it produces an artificial anti-correlation between T and beta even with modest levels of observational noise. The hierarchical Bayesian method rigorously and self-consistently treats measurement uncertainties, including calibration and noise, resulting in more precise SED fits. As a result, the Bayesian fits do not produce any spurious anti-correlations between the SED parameters due to measurement uncertainty. We demonstrate that the Bayesian method is substantially more accurate than the chi-square fit in recovering the SED parameters, as well as the correlations between them. As an illustration, we apply our method to Herschel and sub millimeter ground-based observations of the star-forming Bok globule CB244. This source is a small, nearby molecular cloud containing a single low-mass protostar and a starless core. We find that T and beta are weakly positively correlated -- in contradiction with the chi-square fits, which indicate a T-beta anti-correlation from the same data-set. Additionally, in comparison to the chi-square fits the Bayesian SED parameter estimates exhibit a reduced range in values.

astro-ph.IM