arXiv subjects

Brandon C. Kelly

Publications and source records attributed to Brandon C. Kelly.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

The Demographics of Broad-Line Quasars in the Mass-Luminosity Plane. I. Testing FWHM-Based Virial Black Hole Masses

We jointly constrain the luminosity function (LF) and black hole mass function (BHMF) of broad-line quasars with forward Bayesian modeling in the quasar mass-luminosity plane, based on a homogeneous sample of ~ 58,000 SDSS DR7 quasars at z ~ 0.3-5. We take into account the selection effect of the sample flux limit; more importantly, we deal with the statistical scatter between true BH masses and FWHM-based single-epoch virial mass estimates, as well as potential luminosity-dependent biases of these mass estimates. The LF is tightly constrained in the regime sampled by SDSS, and makes reasonable predictions when extrapolated to ~ 3 magnitudes fainter. Downsizing is seen in the model LF. On the other hand, we find it difficult to constrain the BHMF to within a factor of a few at z>~0.7 (with MgII and CIV-based virial BH masses). This is mainly driven by the unknown luminosity-dependent bias of these mass estimators and its degeneracy with other model parameters, and secondly driven by the fact that SDSS quasars only sample the tip of the active BH population at high redshift. Nevertheless, the most likely models favor a positive luminosity-dependent bias for MgII and possibly for CIV, such that at fixed true BH mass, objects with higher-than-average luminosities have over-estimated FWHM-based virial masses. There is tentative evidence that downsizing also manifests itself in the active BHMF, and the BH mass density in broad-line quasars contributes an insignificant amount to the total BH mass density at all times. Within our model uncertainties, we do not find a strong BH mass dependence of the mean Eddington ratio; but there is evidence that the mean Eddington ratio (at fixed BH mass) increases with redshift.

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arXiv2011

Measurement Error Models in Astronomy

I discuss the effects of measurement error on regression and density estimation. I review the statistical methods that have been developed to correct for measurement error that are most popular in astronomical data analysis, discussing their advantages and disadvantages. I describe functional models for accounting for measurement error in regression, with emphasis on the methods of moments approach and the modified loss function approach. I then describe structural models for accounting for measurement error in regression and density estimation, with emphasis on maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods. As an example of a Bayesian application, I analyze an astronomical data set subject to large measurement errors and a non-linear dependence between the response and covariate. I conclude with some directions for future research.

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arXiv2011

Mass Functions of Supermassive Black Holes Across Cosmic Time

The black hole mass function of supermassive black holes describes the evolution of the distribution of black hole mass. It is one of the primary empirical tools available for mapping the growth of supermassive black holes and for constraining theoretical models of their evolution. In this review we discuss methods for estimating the black hole mass function, including their advantages and disadvantages. We also review the results of using these methods for estimating the mass function of both active and inactive black holes. In addition, we review current theoretical models for the growth of supermassive black holes that predict the black hole mass function. We conclude with a discussion of directions for future research which will lead to improvement in both empirical and theoretical determinations of the mass function of supermassive black holes.

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arXiv2011

Using the Fundamental Plane of Black Hole Activity to Distinguish X-ray Processes from Weakly Accreting Black Holes

The fundamental plane of black hole activity is a relation between X-ray luminosity, radio luminosity, and black hole mass for hard state Galactic black holes and their supermassive analogs. The fundamental plane suggests that, at low-accretion rates, the physical processes regulating the conversion of an accretion flow into radiative energy could be universal across the entire black hole mass scale. However, there is still a need to further refine the fundamental plane in order to better discern the radiative processes and their geometry very close to the black hole, in particular the source of hard X-rays. Further refinement is necessary because error bars on the best-fit slopes of the fundamental plane are generally large, and also the inferred coefficients can be sensitive to the adopted sample of black holes. In this work, we regress the fundamental plane with a Bayesian technique. Our approach shows that sub-Eddington black holes emit X-ray emission that is predominantly optically thin synchrotron radiation from the jet, provided that their radio spectra are flat or inverted. X-ray emission dominated by very radiatively inefficient accretion flows are excluded at the >3σ level. We also show that it is difficult to place FR I galaxies onto the fundamental plane because their X-ray jet emission is highly affected by synchrotron cooling. On the other hand, BL Lac objects fit onto the fundamental plane. Including a uniform subset of high-energy peaked BL Lac objects from the SDSS, we find sub-Eddington black holes with flat/inverted radio spectra follow log L_x=(1.45\pm0.04)log L_R-(0.88\pm0.06)\logM_{BH}-6.07\pm1.10, with σ_{int}=0.07\pm0.05 dex. Finally, we discuss how the effects of synchrotron cooling of jet emission from the highest black hole masses can bias fundamental plane regressions, perhaps leading to incorrect inferences on X-ray radiation mechanisms.

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arXiv2011

Accretion Rate and the Physical Nature of Unobscured Active Galaxies

We show how accretion rate governs the physical properties of a sample of unobscured broad-line, narrow-line, and lineless active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We avoid the systematic errors plaguing previous studies of AGN accretion rate by using accurate accretion luminosities (L_int) from well-sampled multiwavelength SEDs from the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS), and accurate black hole masses derived from virial scaling relations (for broad-line AGNs) or host-AGN relations (for narrow-line and lineless AGNs). In general, broad emission lines are present only at the highest accretion rates (L_int/L_Edd > 0.01), and these rapidly accreting AGNs are observed as broad-line AGNs or possibly as obscured narrow-line AGNs. Narrow-line and lineless AGNs at lower specific accretion rates (L_int/L_Edd < 0.01) are unobscured and yet lack a broad line region. The disappearance of the broad emission lines is caused by an expanding radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) at the inner radius of the accretion disk. The presence of the RIAF also drives L_int/L_Edd < 10^-2 narrow-line and lineless AGNs to 10 times higher ratios of radio to optical/UV emission than L_int/L_Edd > 0.01 broad-line AGNs, since the unbound nature of the RIAF means it is easier to form a radio outflow. The IR torus signature also tends to become weaker or disappear from L_int/L_Edd < 0.01 AGNs, although there may be additional mid-IR synchrotron emission associated with the RIAF. Together these results suggest that specific accretion rate is an important physical "axis" of AGN unification, described by a simple model.

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arXiv2011

Spectropolarimetric Evidence for Radiatively Inefficient Accretion in an Optically Dull Active Galaxy

We present Subaru/FOCAS spectropolarimetry of two active galaxies in the Cosmic Evolution Survey. These objects were selected to be optically dull, with the bright X-ray emission of an AGN but missing optical emission lines in our previous spectroscopy. Our new observations show that one target has very weak emission lines consistent with an optically dull AGN, while the other object has strong emission lines typical of a host-diluted Type 2 Seyfert galaxy. In neither source do we observe polarized emission lines, with 3-sigma upper limits of P_BLR < 2%. This means that the missing broad emission lines (and weaker narrow emission lines) are not due to simple anisotropic obscuration, e.g., by the canonical AGN torus. The weak-lined optically dull AGN exhibits a blue polarized continuum with P = 0.78 +/- 0.07% at 4400 A < lambda_rest < 7200 A (P = 1.37 +/- 0.16% at 4400 A < lambda_rest < 5050 A). The wavelength dependence of this polarized flux is similar to that of an unobscured AGN continuum and represents the intrinsic AGN emission, either as synchrotron emission or the outer part of an accretion disk reflected by a clumpy dust scatterer. Because this intrinsic AGN emission lacks emission lines, this source is likely to have a radiatively inefficient accretion flow.

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arXiv2011

A Stochastic Model for the Luminosity Fluctuations of Accreting Black Holes

In this work we have developed a new stochastic model for the fluctuations in lightcurves of accreting black holes. The model is based on a linear combination of stochastic processes and is also the solution to the linear diffusion equation perturbed by a spatially correlated noise field. This allows flexible modeling of the power spectral density (PSD), and we derive the likelihood function for the process, enabling one to estimate the parameters of the process, including break frequencies in the PSD. Our statistical technique is computationally efficient, unbiased by aliasing and red noise leak, and fully accounts for irregular sampling and measurement errors. We show that our stochastic model provides a good approximation to the X-ray lightcurves of galactic black holes, and the optical and X-ray lightcurves of AGN. We use the estimated time scales of our stochastic model to recover the correlation between characteristic time scale of the high frequency X-ray fluctuations and black hole mass for AGN, including two new `detections' of the time scale for Fairall 9 and NGC 5548. We find a tight anti-correlation between the black hole mass and the amplitude of the driving noise field, which is proportional to the amplitude of the high frequency X-ray PSD, and we estimate that this parameter gives black hole mass estimates to within ~ 0.2 dex precision, potentially the most accurate method for AGN yet. We also find evidence that ~ 13% of AGN optical PSDs fall off flatter than 1 / f^2, and, similar to previous work, find that the optical fluctuations are more suppressed on short time scales compared to the X-rays, but are larger on long time scales, suggesting the optical fluctuations are not solely due to reprocessing of X-rays.

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arXiv2010

Constraints on Black Hole Growth, Quasar Lifetimes, and Eddington Ratio Distributions from the SDSS Broad Line Quasar Black Hole Mass Function

We present an estimate of the black hole mass function (BHMF) of broad line quasars (BLQSOs) that self-consistently corrects for incompleteness and the statistical uncertainty in the mass estimates, based on a sample of 9886 quasars at 1 < z < 4.5 drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find evidence for `cosmic downsizing' of black holes in BLQSOs, where the peak in their number density shifts to higher redshift with increasing black hole mass. The cosmic mass density for black holes seen as BLQSOs peaks at z ~ 2. We estimate the completeness of the SDSS as a function of black hole mass and Eddington ratio, and find that at z > 1 it is highly incomplete at M_BH < 10^9 M_Sun and L / L_Edd < 0.5. We also estimate a lower limit on the lifetime of a single BLQSO phase and we place constraints on the maximum mass of a black hole in a BLQSO. Our estimated distribution of BLQSO Eddington ratios peaks at L / L_Edd ~ 0.05 and has a dispersion of ~ 0.4 dex, implying that most BLQSOs are not radiating at or near the Eddington limit; however the location of the peak is subject to considerable uncertainty. The steep increase in number density of BLQSOs toward lower Eddington ratios is expected if the BLQSO accretion rate monotonically decays with time. Furthermore, our estimated lifetime and Eddington ratio distributions imply that the majority of the most massive black holes spend a significant amount of time growing in an earlier obscured phase, a conclusion which is independent of the unknown obscured fraction. These results are consistent with models for self-regulated black hole growth, at least for massive systems at z > 1, where the BLQSO phase occurs at the end of a fueling event when black hole feedback unbinds the accreting gas, halting the accretion flow.

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arXiv2010

The Impact of the Uncertainty in Single-Epoch Virial Black Hole Mass Estimates on the Observed Evolution of the Black Hole - Bulge Scaling Relations

Recent observations of the black hole (BH) - bulge scaling relations usually report positive redshift evolution, with higher redshift galaxies harboring more massive BHs than expected from the local relations. All of these studies focus on broad line quasars with BH mass estimated from virial estimators based on single-epoch spectra. Since the sample selection is largely based on quasar luminosity, the cosmic scatter in the BH-bulge relation introduces a statistical bias leading to on average more massive BHs given galaxy properties at high redshift (Lauer et al. 2007). We here emphasize a previously under-appreciated statistical bias resulting from the uncertainty of single-epoch virial BH mass estimators and the shape of the underlying (true) BH mass function, which leads to on average overestimation of the true BH masses at the high-mass end (Shen et al. 2008). We demonstrate that the latter virial mass bias can contribute a substantial amount to the observed excess in BH mass at fixed bulge properties, comparable to the Lauer et al. bias. The virial mass bias is independent of the Lauer et al. bias, hence if both biases are at work, they can largely (or even fully) account for the observed BH mass excess at high redshift.

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arXiv2010

Submillimeter Variability and the Gamma-ray Connection in Fermi Blazars

We present multi-epoch observations from the Submillimeter Array (SMA) for a sample of 171 bright blazars, 43 of which were detected by Fermi during the first three months of observations. We explore the correlation between their gamma-ray properties and submillimeter observations of their parsec-scale jets, with a special emphasis on spectral index in both bands and the variability of the synchrotron component. Subclass is determined using a combination of Fermi designation and the Candidate Gamma-Ray Blazar Survey (CGRaBS), resulting in 35 BL Lac objects and 136 flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) in our total sample. We calculate submillimeter energy spectral indices using contemporaneous observations in the 1 mm and 850 micron bands during the months August-October 2008. The submillimeter light curves are modeled as first-order continuous autoregressive processes, from which we derive characteristic timescales. Our blazar sample exhibits no differences in submillimeter variability amplitude or characteristic timescale as a function of subclass or luminosity. All of the the light curves are consistent with being produced by a single process that accounts for both low and high states, and there is additional evidence that objects may be transitioning between blazar class during flaring epochs.

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arXiv2009

The Nature of Optically Dull Active Galactic Nuclei in COSMOS

We present infrared, optical, and X-ray data of 48 X-ray bright, optically dull AGNs in the COSMOS field. These objects exhibit the X-ray luminosity of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) but lack broad and narrow emission lines in their optical spectrum. We show that despite the lack of optical emission lines, most of these optically dull AGNs are not well-described by a typical passive red galaxy spectrum: instead they exhibit weak but significant blue emission like an unobscured AGN. Photometric observations over several years additionally show significant variability in the blue emission of four optically dull AGNs. The nature of the blue and infrared emission suggest that the optically inactive appearance of these AGNs cannot be caused by obscuration intrinsic to the AGNs. Instead, up to ~70% of optically dull AGNs are diluted by their hosts, with bright or simply edge-on hosts lying preferentially within the spectroscopic aperture. The remaining ~30% of optically dull AGNs have anomalously high f_x/f_o ratios and are intrinsically weak, not obscured, in the optical. These optically dull AGNs are best described as a weakly accreting AGN with a truncated accretion disk from a radiatively inefficient accretion flow.

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arXiv2009

Observational Limits on Type 1 AGN Accretion Rate in COSMOS

We present black hole masses and accretion rates for 182 Type 1 AGN in COSMOS. We estimate masses using the scaling relations for the broad Hb, MgII, and CIV emission lines in the redshift ranges 0.16<z<0.88, 1<z<2.4, and 2.7<z<4.9. We estimate the accretion rate using an Eddington ratio L_I/L_Edd estimated from optical and X-ray data. We find that very few Type 1 AGN accrete below L_I/L_Edd ~ 0.01, despite simulations of synthetic spectra which show that the survey is sensitive to such Type 1 AGN. At lower accretion rates the BLR may become obscured, diluted or nonexistent. We find evidence that Type 1 AGN at higher accretion rates have higher optical luminosities, as more of their emission comes from the cool (optical) accretion disk with respect to shorter wavelengths. We measure a larger range in accretion rate than previous works, suggesting that COSMOS is more efficient at finding low accretion rate Type 1 AGN. However the measured range in accretion rate is still comparable to the intrinsic scatter from the scaling relations, suggesting that Type 1 AGN accrete at a narrow range of Eddington ratio, with L_I/L_Edd ~ 0.1.

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arXiv2009

Are the Variations in Quasar Optical Flux Driven by Thermal Fluctuations?

We analyze a sample of optical light curves for 100 quasars, 70 of which have black hole mass estimates. Our sample is the largest and broadest used yet for modeling quasar variability. The sources in our sample have z < 2.8 and 10^6 < M_BH < 10^10. We model the light curves as a continuous time stochastic process, providing a natural means of estimating the characteristic time scale and amplitude of quasar variations. We employ a Bayesian approach to estimate the characteristic time scale and amplitude of flux variations; our approach is not affected by biases introduced from discrete sampling effects. We find that the characteristic time scales strongly correlate with black hole mass and luminosity, and are consistent with disk orbital or thermal time scales. In addition, the amplitude of short time scale variations is significantly anti-correlated with black hole mass and luminosity. We interpret the optical flux fluctuations as resulting from thermal fluctuations that are driven by an underlying stochastic process, such as a turbulent magnetic field. In addition, the intranight variations in optical flux implied by our empirical model are < 0.02 mag, consistent with current microvariability observations of radio-quiet quasars. Our stochastic model is therefore able to unify both long and short time scale optical variations in radio-quiet quasars as resulting from the same underlying process, while radio-loud quasars have an additional variability component that operates on time scales < 1 day.

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arXiv2008

The COSMOS AGN Spectroscopic Survey I: XMM Counterparts

We present optical spectroscopy for an X-ray and optical flux-limited sample of 677 XMM-Newton selected targets covering the 2 deg^2 COSMOS field, with a yield of 485 high-confidence redshifts. The majority of the spectra were obtained over three seasons (2005-2007) with the IMACS instrument on the Magellan (Baade) telescope. We also include in the sample previously published Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra and supplemental observations with MMT/Hectospec. We detail the observations and classification analyses. The survey is 90% complete to flux limits of f_{0.5-10 keV}>8 x 10^-16 erg cm^-2 s^-1 and i_AB+<22, where over 90% of targets have high-confidence redshifts. Making simple corrections for incompleteness due to redshift and spectral type allows for a description of the complete population to $i_AB+<23. The corrected sample includes 57% broad emission line (Type 1, unobscured) AGN at 0.13 3 x 10^42 erg s^-1) to z<1, of both optically obscured and unobscured types. We find statistically significant evidence that the obscured to unobscured AGN ratio at z<1 increases with redshift and decreases with luminosity.

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arXiv2008

Determining Quasar Black Hole Mass Functions from their Broad Emission Lines: Application to the Bright Quasar Survey

We describe a Bayesian approach to estimating quasar black hole mass functions (BHMF) when using the broad emission lines to estimate black hole mass. We show how using the broad line mass estimates in combination with statistical techniques developed for luminosity function estimation leads to statistically biased results. We derive the likelihood function for the BHMF based on the broad line mass estimates, and derive the posterior distribution for the BHMF, given the observed data. We develop our statistical approach for a flexible model where the BHMF is modelled as a mixture of Gaussian functions. Statistical inference is performed using markov chain monte carlo (MCMC) methods. Our method has the advantage that it is able to constrain the BHMF even beyond the survey detection limits at the adopted confidence level, accounts for measurement errors and the intrinsic uncertainty in broad line mass estimates, and provides a natural way of estimating the probability distribution of any quantities derived from the BHMF. We conclude by using our method to estimate the local active BHMF using the z < 0.5 Bright Quasar Survey sources. At z = 0.2, the quasar BHMF falls off approximately as a power law with slope ~ 2 for M_{BH} > 10^8. Our analysis implies that z < 0.5 broad line quasars have a typical Eddington ratio of ~ 0.4 and a dispersion in Eddington ratio of < 0.5 dex (abridged).

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arXiv2008

A Flexible Method of Estimating Luminosity Functions

We describe a Bayesian approach to estimating luminosity functions. We derive the likelihood function and posterior probability distribution for the luminosity function, given the observed data, and we compare the Bayesian approach with maximum-likelihood by simulating sources from a Schechter function. For our simulations confidence intervals derived from bootstrapping the maximum-likelihood estimate can be too narrow, while confidence intervals derived from the Bayesian approach are valid. We develop our statistical approach for a flexible model where the luminosity function is modeled as a mixture of Gaussian functions. Statistical inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and we describe a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to perform the MCMC. The MCMC simulates random draws from the probability distribution of the luminosity function parameters, given the data, and we use a simulated data set to show how these random draws may be used to estimate the probability distribution for the luminosity function. In addition, we show how the MCMC output may be used to estimate the probability distribution of any quantities derived from the luminosity function, such as the peak in the space density of quasars. The Bayesian method we develop has the advantage that it is able to place accurate constraints on the luminosity function even beyond the survey detection limits, and that it provides a natural way of estimating the probability distribution of any quantities derived from the luminosity function, including those that rely on information beyond the survey detection limits.

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arXiv2008

Observational Constraints on the Dependence of Radio-Quiet Quasar X-ray Emission on Black Hole Mass and Accretion Rate

In this work we use a sample of 318 radio-quiet quasars (RQQ) to investigate the dependence of the ratio of optical/UV flux to X-ray flux, alpha_ox, and the X-ray photon index, Gamma_X, on black hole mass, UV luminosity relative to Eddington, and X-ray luminosity relative to Eddington. Our sample is drawn from the SDSS, with X-ray data from ROSAT and Chandra, and optical data mostly from the SDSS; 153 of these sources have estimates of Gamma_X from Chandra. We estimate M_BH using standard estimates derived from the Hbeta, Mg II, and C IV broad emission lines. Our sample spans a broad range in black hole mass (10^6 < M_BH / M_Sun < 10^10) and redshift (z < 4.8). We find that alpha_ox increases with increasing M_BH and L_UV / L_Edd, and decreases with increasing L_X / L_Edd. In addition, we confirm the correlation seen in previous studies between Gamma_X and M_BH and both L_UV / L_Edd and L_X / L_Edd; however, we also find evidence that the dependence of Gamma_X of these quantities is not monotonic, changing sign at M_BH ~ 3 x 10^8 M_Sun. We argue that the alpha_ox correlations imply that the fraction of bolometric luminosity emitted by the accretion disk, as compared to the corona, increases with increasing accretion rate relative to Eddington. In addition, we argue that the Gamma_X trends are caused by a dependence of X-ray spectral index on accretion rate. We discuss our results within the context of accretion models with comptonizing corona, and discuss the implications of the alpha_ox correlations for quasar feedback. To date, this is the largest study of the dependence of RQQ X-ray parameters on black hole mass and related quantities, and the first to attempt to correct for the large statistical uncertainty in the broad line mass estimates.

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arXiv2007

Atmospheric Parameters of Field L and T Dwarfs

We present an analysis of the 0.95-14.5 micron spectral energy distributions of nine field ultracool dwarfs with spectral types ranging from L1 to T4.5. Effective temperatures, gravities, and condensate cloud sedimentation efficiencies are derived by comparing the data to synthetic spectra computed from atmospheric models that self-consistently include the formation of condensate clouds. Derived effective temperatures decrease steadily through the L1 to T4.5 spectral types and we confirm that the effective temperatures of ultracool dwarfs at the L/T transition are nearly constant, decreasing by only ~200 K from spectral types L7.5 to T4.5. The two objects in our sample with very red J-Ks colors are best fitted with synthetic spectra that have thick clouds which hints at a possible correlation between the near-infrared colors of L dwarfs and the condensate cloud properties. The fits to the two T dwarfs in our sample (T2 and T4.5) also suggest that the clouds become thinner in this spectral class, in agreement with previous studies. Restricting the fits to narrower wavelength ranges (i.e., individual photometric bands) almost always yields excellent agreement between the data and models. Limitations in our knowledge of the opacities of key absorbers such as FeH, VO, and CH4 at certain wavelengths remain obvious, however. The effective temperatures obtained by fitting the narrower wavelength ranges can show a large scatter compared to the values derived by fitting the full spectral energy distributions; deviations are typically ~200 K and in the worst cases, up to 700 K.

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