arXiv subjects

Bryce T. Bolin

Publications and source records attributed to Bryce T. Bolin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Gemini and Apache Point Multi-band Optical Imaging Characterization of Fragmenting Long-period Comet C/2025 K1 (ATLAS)

We present results from multi-band g, r, and i, observations of C/2025 K1 (ATLAS) taken with the Gemini North 8.1-m/GMOS imager on 2025 December 6 and December 24, and u, g, r, i, and z observations with the Astrophysical Research Consortium (ARC) 3.5-m/ARCTIC imager on 2025 December 8. We identify at least four distinct fragments in the Gemini and ARC images, designated as A, C, D, and E in these data taken between 2025 December 6 and 24. Color indices are determined from the December 8 ARC observations of fragments A and C, and from the Gemini observations on December 24 for A, C, and D. K1 has an unusually blue g-r color of $\sim$0.40. The color difference between the comet and its fragments at the two epochs may be explained by particle size and light-scattering effects. We used the Gemini observations to calculate dust mass-loss rates for fragments A, C, and D. We conclude that C/2025 K1 has moderate dust mass-loss rates for millimeter-sized dust of $\sim$50 kg/s for the A and C fragments.

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arXiv2026

The Dust Mineralogy of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS from JWST/MIRI Observations

We present the first spectroscopic mineralogical analysis of the dust coma of an interstellar object (ISO) from JWST mid-infrared spectroscopy of 3I/ATLAS (3I). 3I exhibits a strong 10-micron emissivity feature commonly seen on asteroids, comets, disks, and the interstellar medium. Characterization of this 10-micron emissivity maximum reveals that 3I's dust composition is dominated by amorphous silicates, and that 3I is unlike Solar System comets, which show significant crystalline silicate dust. Instead, 3I's dust composition is more similar to circumstellar transition disks and the interstellar medium. We suggest 3I may have formed in a distant part of its home system out of interstellar medium-like material, without substantial incorporation of silicates condensed near its host star, unlike the mixing scenarios commonly hypothesized for Solar System comets. Alternatively, 3I's original crystalline silicates may have been amorphized during its Gyr-long journey, although we find this alternative less likely due to 3I's mass loss rate and distinct 10 micron feature as opposed to observed Solar System comets.

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arXiv2026

The Volatile Inventory of 3I/ATLAS as seen with JWST/MIRI

We present the first spectroscopic characterization of an interstellar object at mid-infrared wavelengths. Post-perihelion observations of 3I/ATLAS using the JWST/MIRI medium-resolution spectrometer were obtained on 2025 December 15--16 and 27 when the object was at heliocentric distances of 2.20 and 2.54 au, respectively. Our 5--28 micron spectra exhibit fluorescence features from several gaseous species, including the $\nu_2$ band of water at 5.8--7.0 microns. the primary $\nu_2$ and associated hot bands of carbon dioxide around 15 microns, and a forbidden transition of atomic nickel at 7.507 microns. We also report the first direct detection of methane in an interstellar object. The delayed onset of methane production relative to water suggests past depletion from the outermost layers, with the observed methane emerging from unprocessed subsurface material. Comparison of the volatile production rates measured during the two epochs indicate a significant reduction in overall outgassing over 12 days, with the measured water activity level dropping more steeply than other species. As shown through near-nucleus coma mapping, 3I continues to display an extended source of water production from icy grains entrained within the coma. Our production rate measurements confirm that 3I exhibits a strongly enhanced CO$_2$:H$_2$O mixing ratio relative to typical solar system comets, as well as a somewhat enriched CH$_4$:H$_2$O value.

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arXiv2025

Gaia and IRTF abundance of A-type main belt asteroids

The Missing Mantle Problem refers to the apparent scarcity of olivine rich (A-type) asteroids in the main belt, despite expectations that such bodies should be common if differentiated parent bodies were widely disrupted. Conversely, A-types appear relatively more abundant among near-Earth asteroids. We present a revised estimate of the A-type abundance in the main belt by combining Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) reflectance spectra with near-infrared observations from NASA IRTF. We applied principal component analysis (PCA) to Gaia DR3 visible spectra to identify A-type candidates and confirmed a subset through IRTF spectroscopy. Using these data and literature results, we derived the A-type probability distribution as a function of DR3 principal components, and from this, estimated their abundance across heliocentric distances and collisional families. We find that A-types constitute (2.00 +/- 0.15)% of main-belt asteroids significantly higher than previous estimates. Some families, such as Vesta and Flora, show enhanced A-type fractions, while others (e.g. Themis, Hygiea) contain few or none. The elevated abundance in the Flora family supports the existence of an additional differentiated parent body in the inner belt, besides Vesta. These findings indicate that olivine-rich material is more widespread than previously thought, offering new constraints on the Missing Mantle Problem and on early Solar System differentiation processes.

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arXiv2025

Very Large Telescope Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS. II. From Quiescence to Glow: Dramatic Rise of Ni i Emission and Incipient CN Outgassing at Large Heliocentric Distances*

We report VLT spectroscopy of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025~N1) from $r_{\rm h}\!\simeq\!4.4$ to $2.85$~au using X-shooter (300--550\,nm, $R\!\simeq\!3000$) and UVES (optical, $R\!\simeq\!35k-80k$). The coma is dust-dominated with a fairly constant red optical continuum slope ($\sim$21--22\%/1000\AA). We report detection of CN emission and also detect numerous Ni\,\textsc{ii}~lines while Fe\,\textsc{i}~remains undetected, potentially implying efficiently released gas-phase Ni. At $r_{\rm h}\!\simeq\!3.14$~au we derive $3\sigma$ limits of $Q({\rm OH})<{1.48\times10^{26}}\ {\rm s^{-1}}$, but find no indications for [O\,\textsc{i}], C$_2$, C$_3$ or NH$_2$. From our latest X-shooter measurements conducted on 2025-08-21 ($r_{\rm h} = 2.85$\,au) we measure production rates of $\log~Q(\mathrm{CN}) = {24.81\pm 0.01}$ molecules s$^{-1}$ and $\log~Q$(Ni) $= {23.30\pm0.07}$ atoms s$^{-1}$, and characterize their evolution as the comet approaches perihelion.~We observe a steep heliocentric-distance scaling for the production rates $Q(\mathrm{Ni}) \propto r_h^{{-7.7 \pm 1.0}}$ and for $Q(\mathrm{CN}) \propto r_h^{{-6.7 \pm 0.2}}$, and predict a Ni--CO$_{(2)}$ correlation if the Ni\,\textsc{ii}\ emission is driven by the carbonyl formation channel.~Energetic considerations of activation barriers show that this behavior is inconsistent with direct sublimation of canonical metal/sulfide phases and instead favors low--activation--energy release from dust, e.g.~photon-stimulated desorption or mild thermolysis of metalated organics or Ni-rich nanophases, possibly including Ni--carbonyl-like complexes.~These hypotheses are testable with future coordinated ground-based and space-based monitoring as 3I becomes more active during its continued passage through the solar system.

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arXiv2025

NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activityof the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object's region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin's high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of about 70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of about 3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at about 0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-section ratio of eta >= 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g - r = (0.657 +/- 0.013) mag, r - i = (0.235 +/- 0.018) mag, i - z = (0.147 +/- 0.042) mag, z - y = (0.047 +/- 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (>=8-meter class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will begin to provide after it begins in early 2026.

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arXiv2025

Palomar and Apache Point Spectrophotometry of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

On July 1st 2025 the third interstellar object, 3I/ATLAS or C/2025 N1 (ATLAS), was discovered, with an eccentricity of $e=6.15 \pm 0.01$ and perihelion of $q=1.357\pm0.001$ au. We report our initial visible to near-infrared (420-1000 nm) spectrophotometry of 3I/ATLAS using both the Palomar 200 inch telescope and Apache Point Observatory. We measure 3I/ATLAS to have a red spectral slope of 19 %/100 nm in the 420-700 nm range, and a more neutral 6 %/100 nm slope over 700-1000 nm. We detect no notable emission features such as from C$_2$.

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arXiv2025

Multi-epoch spectro-photometric characterization of the minimoon 2024 PT$_5$ in the visible and near-infrared

2024 PT$_5$ is a tiny ($D\leq10$ m) near-Earth asteroid (NEA) discovered in August 2024. 2024 PT$_5$ was gravitationally bound to the Earth-Moon system from September to November 2024 and classified as a minimoon. Several quick response observations suggest the lunar ejecta origin of 2024 PT$_5$, while rotation state and albedo, essential properties to investigate its origin, are not well constrained. We performed visible to near-infrared multicolor photometry of 2024 PT$_5$ from data taken using the TriColor CMOS Camera and Spectrograph (TriCCS) on the Seimei 3.8 m telescope during 2025 January 4-10. The Seimei/TriCCS observations of 2024 PT$_5$ cover phase angles from 14 deg to 27 deg, and were obtained in the $g$, $r$, $i$, and $z$ bands in the Pan-STARRS system. In addition, we analyzed $Y$, $J$, $H$, and $K$ photometry taken with the Multi-Object Spectrograph for Infrared Exploration (MOSFIRE) on the Keck I 10-m telescope taken on 2025 January 16-17. Our lightcurves show brightness variations over time periods of several tens of minutes. We infer that 2024 PT$_5$ is in a tumbling state and has a lightcurve amplitude of about 0.3 mag. Visible and near-infrared color indices of 2024 PT$_5$, $g-r=0.567\pm0.044$, $r-i=0.155\pm0.009$, $r-z=0.147\pm0.066$, $Y-J=0.557\pm0.046$, $J-H=0.672\pm0.078$, and $H-Ks=0.148\pm0.098$, indicate that 2024 PT$_5$ is an S-complex asteroid, largely consistent with previous observations. Using the $H$-$G$ model, we derived an absolute magnitude $H_{V,HG}$ of $27.72\pm0.09$ and a slope parameter $G_V$ of $0.223\pm0.073$ in V-band. A geometric albedo of 2024 PT$_5$ is derived to be $0.26\pm0.07$ from the slope of its photometric phase curve. This albedo value is typical of the S- and Q-type NEAs. The color properties of 2024 PT$_5$ derived from our observations match rock samples taken from the lunar surface, which agrees with previous studies.

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arXiv2025

Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS: discovery and physical description

We describe the physical characteristics of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, discovered on 2025 July 1 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. The comet has eccentricity, $e$ $\simeq$ 6.08 and velocity at infinity, v$_{\infty}$ $\simeq$ 57 km/s, indicating an interstellar origin. \textbf{We obtained B,V, R, I, g, r, i, and z photometry with the Kottamia Astronomical Observatory 1.88-m telescope, the Palomar 200-inch telescope, and the Astrophysical Research Consortium 3.5-m telescope on 2025 July 2, 3, and 6. We measured colour indices B-V=0.98$\pm$0.23, V-R=0.71$\pm$0.09, R-I=0.14$\pm$0.10, g-r=0.84$\pm$0.05 mag, r-i=0.16$\pm$0.03 mag, i-z=-0.02$\pm$0.07 mag, and g-i=1.00$\pm$0.05 mag and a spectral slope of 16.0$\pm$1.9 $\%$/100 nm.} We calculate the dust cross-section within 10,000 km of the comet to be 184.6$\pm$4.6 km$^2$, assuming an albedo of 0.10. 3I/ATLAS's coma has FWHM$\simeq$2.2 arcsec and A(0$^\circ$)f$\rho$=280.8$\pm$3.2 cm. \textbf{We estimate that 3I/ATLAS's \textmu m-scale to mm-scale dust is ejected at $\sim$0.01-1 m/s, implying a dust production of $\sim$0.1 - 1.0 kg/s.

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arXiv2025

Apache Point rapid response characterization of primitive imminent impactor 2024 RW$_1$

Imminent impactors may be detected only a few hours before their impact with Earth, providing a brief opportunity to characterize them before impact. We describe the characterization of imminent impactor 2024 RW$_1$, which was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on 2024 September 4 at 05:43 UTC, before it entered the atmosphere near the northern Philippines at 16:39 UTC. We observed 2024 RW$_1$ with the Astrophysical Research Consortium Telescope Imaging Camera on the Apache Point Astrophysical Research Consortium's 3.5-m telescope on 2024 September 4 10:16 UTC. We obtained g, r, i, and z photometry of 2024 RW$_1$, yielding color indices of g-r = 0.47$\pm$0.04, r-i = 0.13$\pm$0.04, i-z = -0.11$\pm$0.07, and g-i = 0.60$\pm$0.04, corresponding to a spectral slope of 0.67$\pm$0.40~$\%$/100 nm. The closest match to an asteroid spectral type is with B-type asteroids from the C-complex. We detect variations in the time series photometry of the asteroid with an amplitude of $\sim$0.75, and a double-peaked rotation period of $\sim$1900 s. Assuming a visible albedo of 0.07$\pm$0.03, a density of $\sim$1500 kg/m$^3$, and a calculated absolute magnitude of 30.92$\pm$0.05, we estimate that the asteroid has a diameter of 3.3$\pm$0.7 m and a total mass of $\sim$28,000 kg. Comparing our astrometric orbital solutions to NEOMOD3, the most likely source of 2024 RW$_1$ is the 3:1 main belt mean motion resonance (77\% probability) followed by the $\nu_6$ resonance (13\% probability), consistent with its organic B-type nature.

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arXiv2025

Water ice in the debris disk around HD 181327

Debris disks are exoplanetary systems that contain planets, minor bodies (i.e., asteroids, Kuiper belt objects, comets, etc.), and micron-sized debris dust. Since water ice is the most common frozen volatile, it plays an essential role in the formation of planets and minor bodies. Although water ice has been commonly found in Kuiper belt objects and comets in the Solar System, no definitive evidence for water ice in debris disks has been obtained to date. Here, we report the discovery of water ice in the HD 181327 disk using the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph. We detect the solid-state broad absorption feature of water ice at 3 $\mu$m and a distinct Fresnel peak feature at 3.1 $\mu$m, a characteristic of large water-ice particles. This implies the presence of a water-ice reservoir in the HD 181327 exoKuiper belt. Gradients of water-ice features at different stellocentric distances reveal a dynamic process of destroying and replenishing water ice in the disk, with estimated water-ice mass fractions ranging from 0.1% at ~85 au to 14% at ~113 au. It is highly plausible that the icy bodies that release water ice in HD 181327 could be the extra-solar counterparts of some of the Kuiper belt objects in our Solar System, supported by their spectral similarity.

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arXiv2025

The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR$_4$

We describe observations and physical characteristics of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR$_4$, discovered on 2024 December 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. The asteroid has semi-major axis, $a$ = 2.52 au, eccentricity, $e$ = 0.66, inclination $i$ = 3.41$^{\circ}$, and a $\sim$0.003 au Earth minimum orbit intersection distance. We obtained g, r, i, and Z imaging with the Gemini South/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph on 2025 February 7 and Y and J imaging with the Keck/Multi-Object Spectrometer For Infra-Red Exploration on 2025 February 12. We measured a g-i spectral slope of 13$\pm$3 $\%$/100 nm, and color indices g-r = 0.70 $\pm$ 0.10, r-i = 0.25$\pm$0.06, i-Z = -0.27 $\pm$ 0.10, and Y-J = 0.41 $\pm$ 0.10. 2024 YR$_4$ has a spectrum that best matches R-type and Sa-type asteroids and a diameter of $\sim$30-65 m using our measured absolute magnitude of 23.9 $\pm$ 0.3 mag, and assuming an albedo of 0.15-0.4. The lightcurve of 2024 YR$_4$ shows $\sim$0.4 mag variations with a rotation period of $\sim$1170 s. We use photometry of 2024 YR$_4$ from Gemini and other sources taken between 2024 December to 2025 February to determine the asteroid's spin vector and shape, finding that it has an oblate, $\sim$3:1 a:c axial ratio and a pole direction of $\lambda$, $\beta$ = $\sim$42$^{\circ}$, $\sim$-25$^{\circ}$. Finally, we compare the orbital elements of 2024 YR$_4$ with the NEO population model and find that its most likely sources are resonances between the inner and central Main Belt.

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arXiv2025

Keck and Gemini characterization of $Hayabusa2\#$ rendezvous target 1998 KY$_{26}$

Near-earth object (NEO) 1998 KY$_{26}$ is a target of the $Hayabusa2\#$ spacecraft, which it will rendezvous with in July 2031. The asteroid is a rapid rotator and has a large out-of-plane nongravitational acceleration. We present deep $g$ and $R$ band imaging obtained with the Keck I/Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and visible spectroscopy from Gemini North/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph taken of 1998 KY$_{26}$ on 2024 June 8-9 when the asteroid was $\sim$0.037 au from the Earth. The asteroid lacks evidence of a dust coma in the deep images and its spectrum most closely resembles Xe-type asteroids, possessing a spectral slope of 6.71$\pm$0.43 $\%$ 100 nm$^{-1}$, and colors $g$-$r$ = 0.63$\pm$0.03, $r$-$i$ = 0.15$\pm$0.03, $i$-$z$ = 0.05$\pm$0.04, and implies a diameter of $\sim$10 m. From our images, we compute a 3$\sigma$ upper limit on the dust production of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $<$10$^{-5}$ kg s$^{-1}$, $<$10$^{-2}$ kg s$^{-1}$, and $<$10$^{-1}$ kg s$^{-1}$ assuming $\mathrm{\mu}$m, mm, and cm size dust particles. Additionally, we compare the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ and large nongravitational parameters asteroids to NEO population models and find that the majority, including 1998 KY$_{26}$, likely originated from the inner Main Belt, while the second most numerous group originates from the outer Main Belt, followed by a third group originating from the Jupiter Family Comet population. Given its inner Main Belt origin, its Xe-type spectrum, and rapid rotation, we hypothesize that the nongravitational acceleration of 1998 KY$_{26}$ may be caused by the shedding of large dust grains from its surface due to its rotation rather than H$_2$O vapor outgassing.

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arXiv2024

The discovery and characterization of minimoon 2024 PT$_5$

Minimoons are asteroids that become temporarily captured by the Earth-Moon system. We present the discovery of 2024 PT$_5$, a minimoon discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) Sutherland telescope on 2024 August 7. The minimoon with heliocentric semi-major axis, $a$$\sim$1.01 au, and perihelion, $q$$\sim$0.99 au, became captured by the Earth-Moon system on 2024 September 29 and left on 2024 November 25 UTC. Visible g, r, i, and Z spectrophotometry was obtained using Gemini North/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) on 2024 September 27. The color indices are g-r = 0.58$\pm$0.04, r-i = 0.29$\pm$0.04, i-Z = -0.27$\pm$0.06, and the spectrum best matches lunar rock samples followed by S-complex asteroids. Assuming an albedo of 0.21 and using our measured absolute magnitude of 28.64$\pm$0.04, 2024 PT$_5$ has a diameter of 5.4$\pm$1.2 m. We also detect variations in the lightcurve of 2024 PT$_5$ with a 0.28$\pm$0.07 magnitude amplitude and a double-peaked period of $\sim$2600$\pm$500 s. We improve the orbital solution of 2024 PT$_5$ with our astrometry and estimate the effect of radiation pressure on its deriving an area-to-mass ratio of 7.02$\pm$2.05$\times$10$^{-5}$ m$^2$/kg, implying a density of $\sim$3.9$\pm$2.1 g/cm$^3$, compatible with having a rocky composition. If we assume 2024 PT$_5$ is from the NEO population, its most likely sources are resonances in the inner Main Belt by comparing its orbit with the NEO population model, though this does not exclude a lunar origin.

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arXiv2024

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science: Incremental Templates in Year 1

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is due to commence the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the end of 2025. To detect transient/variable sources and identify solar system objects (SSOs), the processing pipelines require templates of the static sky to perform difference imaging. During the first year of the LSST, templates must be generated as the survey progresses, otherwise SSOs cannot be discovered nightly. The incremental template generation strategy has not been finalized; therefore, we use the Metric Analysis Framework (MAF) and a simulation of the survey cadence (one_snap_v4.0_10yrs}) to explore template generation in Year 1. We have assessed the effects of generating templates over timescales of days-weeks, when at least four images of sufficient quality are available for $\geq90\%$ of the visit. We predict that SSO discoveries will begin $\sim$2-3 months after the start of the survey. We find that the ability of the LSST to discover SSOs in real-time is reduced in Year 1. This is especially true for detections in areas of the sky that receive fewer visits, such as the North Ecliptic Spur (NES), and in less commonly used filters, such as the $u$ and $g$-bands. The lack of templates in the NES dominates the loss of real-time SSO discoveries; across the whole sky the MAF Main-Belt asteroid (MBA) discovery metric decreases by up to $63\%$ compared to the baseline observing strategy, whereas the metric decreases by up to $79\%$ for MBAs in the NES alone.

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arXiv2024

Rubin ToO 2024: Envisioning the Vera C. Rubin Observatory LSST Target of Opportunity program

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at Vera C. Rubin Observatory is planned to begin in the Fall of 2025. The LSST survey cadence has been designed via a community-driven process regulated by the Survey Cadence Optimization Committee (SCOC), which recommended up to 3% of the observing time to carry out Target of Opportunity (ToO) observations. Experts from the scientific community, Rubin Observatory personnel, and members of the SCOC were brought together to deliver a recommendation for the implementation of the ToO program during a workshop held in March 2024. Four main science cases were identified: gravitational wave multi-messenger astronomy, high energy neutrinos, Galactic supernovae, and small potentially hazardous asteroids possible impactors. Additional science cases were identified and briefly addressed in the documents, including lensed or poorly localized gamma-ray bursts and twilight discoveries. Trigger prioritization, automated response, and detailed strategies were discussed for each science case. This document represents the outcome of the Rubin ToO 2024 workshop, with additional contributions from members of the Rubin Science Collaborations. The implementation of the selection criteria and strategies presented in this document has been endorsed in the SCOC Phase 3 Recommendations document (PSTN-056). Although the ToO program is still to be finalized, this document serves as a baseline plan for ToO observations with the Rubin Observatory.

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arXiv2024

Identification and Localization of Cometary Activity in Solar System Objects with Machine Learning

In this chapter, we will discuss the use of Machine Learning methods for the identification and localization of cometary activity for Solar System objects in ground and in space-based wide-field all-sky surveys. We will begin the chapter by discussing the challenges of identifying known and unknown active, extended Solar System objects in the presence of stellar-type sources and the application of classical pre-ML identification techniques and their limitations. We will then transition to the discussion of implementing ML techniques to address the challenge of extended object identification. We will finish with prospective future methods and the application to future surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

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arXiv2023

NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $ν_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $θ\simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $θ\simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model.

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