arXiv subjects

Bryce T. Bolin

Publications and source records attributed to Bryce T. Bolin.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to start the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in early to mid-2025. This multi-band wide-field synoptic survey will transform our view of the solar system, with the discovery and monitoring of over 5 million small bodies.The final survey strategy chosen for LSST has direct implications on the discoverability and characterization of solar system minor planets and passing interstellar objects. Creating an inventory of the solar system is one of the four main LSST science drivers. The LSST observing cadence is a complex optimization problem that must balance the priorities and needs of all the key LSST science areas. To design the best LSST survey strategy, a series of operation simulations using the Rubin Observatory scheduler have been generated to explore the various options for tuning observing parameters and prioritizations. We explore the impact of the various simulated LSST observing strategies on studying the solar system's small body reservoirs. We examine what are the best observing scenarios and review what are the important considerations for maximizing LSST solar system science. In general, most of the LSST cadence simulations produce +/-5% or less variations in our chosen key metrics, but a subset of the simulations significantly hinder science returns with much larger losses in the discovery and light curve metrics.

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arXiv2022

The discovery and characterization of a kilometre sized asteroid inside the orbit of Venus

Near-Earth asteroid population models predict the existence of bodies located inside the orbit of Venus. Despite searches up to the end of 2019, none had been found. We report discovery and follow-up observations of (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim, an asteroid with an orbit entirely interior to Venus. (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim has an aphelion distance of ~0.65 au, is ~2 km in diameter and is red in colour. The detection of such a large asteroid inside the orbit of Venus is surprising given their rarity according to near-Earth asteroid population models. As the first officially numbered and named asteroid located entirely within the orbit of Venus, we propose that the class of interior to Venus asteroids be referred to as 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroids.

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arXiv2021

Characterizing Sparse Asteroid Light Curves with Gaussian Processes

In the era of wide-field surveys like the Zwicky Transient Facility and the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time, sparse photometric measurements constitute an increasing percentage of asteroid observations, particularly for asteroids newly discovered in these large surveys. Follow-up observations to supplement these sparse data may be prohibitively expensive in many cases, so to overcome these sampling limitations, we introduce a flexible model based on Gaussian Processes to enable Bayesian parameter inference of asteroid time series data. This model is designed to be flexible and extensible, and can model multiple asteroid properties such as the rotation period, light curve amplitude, changing pulse profile, and magnitude changes due to the phase angle evolution at the same time. Here, we focus on the inference of rotation periods. Based on both simulated light curves and real observations from the Zwicky Transient Facility, we show that the new model reliably infers rotational periods from sparsely sampled light curves, and generally provides well-constrained posterior probability densities for the model parameters. We propose this framework as an intermediate method between fast, but very limited period detection algorithms and much more comprehensive, but computationally expensive shape modeling based on ray-tracing codes.

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arXiv2021

Time-series and Phasecurve Photometry of Episodically-Active Asteroid (6478) Gault in a Quiescent State Using APO, GROWTH, P200 and ZTF

We observed Episodically Active Asteroid (6478) Gault in 2020 with multiple telescopes in Asia and North America and have found that it is no longer active after its recent outbursts at the end of 2018 and start of 2019. The inactivity during this apparation allowed us to measure the absolute magnitude of Gault of H_r = 14.63 +/- 0.02, G_r = 0.21 +/- 0.02 from our secular phasecurve observations. In addition, we were able to constrain Gault's rotation period using time-series photometric lightcurves taken over 17 hours on multiple days in 2020 August, September and October. The photometric lightcurves have a repeating $\lesssim$0.05 magnitude feature suggesting that (6478) Gault has a rotation period of ~2.5 hours and may have a semi-spherical or top-like shape, much like Near-Earth Asteroids Ryugu and Bennu. The rotation period of ~2.5 hours is near to the expected critical rotation period for an asteroid with the physical properties of (6478) Gault suggesting that its activity observed over multiple epochs is due to surface mass shedding from its fast rotation spun up by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack effect.

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arXiv2021

Tails: Chasing Comets with the Zwicky Transient Facility and Deep Learning

We present Tails, an open-source deep-learning framework for the identification and localization of comets in the image data of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a robotic optical time-domain survey currently in operation at the Palomar Observatory in California, USA. Tails employs a custom EfficientDet-based architecture and is capable of finding comets in single images in near real time, rather than requiring multiple epochs as with traditional methods. The system achieves state-of-the-art performance with 99% recall, 0.01% false positive rate, and 1-2 pixel root mean square error in the predicted position. We report the initial results of the Tails efficiency evaluation in a production setting on the data of the ZTF Twilight survey, including the first AI-assisted discovery of a comet (C/2020 T2) and the recovery of a comet (P/2016 J3 = P/2021 A3).

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arXiv2021

Initial Characterization of Active Transitioning Centaur, P/2019 LD2 (ATLAS), using Hubble, Spitzer, ZTF, Keck, APO and GROWTH Visible & Infrared Imaging and Spectroscopy

We present visible and mid-infrared imagery and photometry of temporary Jovian co-orbital comet P/2019 LD$_2$ taken with HST/WFC3, Spitzer/IRAC, the GROWTH telescope network, visible spectroscopy from Keck/LRIS and archival ZTF observations taken between 2019 April and 2020 August. Our observations indicate that the nucleus of LD$_2$ has a radius between 0.2-1.8 km assuming a 0.08 albedo and a coma dominated by $\sim$100$μ$ m-scale dust ejected at $\sim$1 m/s speeds with a $\sim$1'' jet pointing in the SW direction. LD$_2$ experienced a total dust mass loss of $\sim$10$^8$ kg at a loss rate of $\sim$6 kg/s with Af$ρ$/cross-section varying between $\sim$85 cm/125 km$^2$ and $\sim$200 cm/310 km$^2$ from 2019 April 9 to 2019 Nov 8. If the increase in Af$ρ$/cross-section remained constant, it implies LD$_2$'s activity began $\sim$2018 November when within 4.8 au of the Sun, implying the onset of H$_2$O sublimation. We measure CO/CO$_2$ gas production of $\lesssim$10$^{27}$ mol/s /$\lesssim$10$^{26}$ mol/s from our 4.5 $μ$m Spitzer observations, $g$-$r$ = 0.59$\pm$0.03, $r$-$i$ = 0.18$\pm$0.05, $i$-$z$ = 0.01$\pm$0.07 from GROWTH observations, H$_2$O gas production of $\lesssim$80 kg/s scaling from our estimated $C_2$ production of $Q_{C_2}\lesssim$7.5$\times10^{24}$ mol/s from Keck/LRIS spectroscopy. We determine that the long-term orbit of LD$_2$ is similar to Jupiter family comets having close encounters with Jupiter within $\sim$0.5 Hill radius in the last $\sim$3 y, within 0.8 Hill radius in $\sim$9 y. Additionally, 78.8$\%$ of our orbital clones are ejected from the Solar System within $1 \times 10^{6}$ years having a dynamical half-life of 3.4 $\times 10^5$ years.

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arXiv2020

The Scientific Impact of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) for Solar System Science

Vera C. Rubin Observatory will be a key facility for small body science in planetary astronomy over the next decade. It will carry out the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), observing the sky repeatedly in u, g, r, i, z, and y over the course of ten years using a 6.5 m effective diameter telescope with a 9.6 square degree field of view, reaching approximately r = 24.5 mag (5-σ depth) per visit. The resulting dataset will provide extraordinary opportunities for both discovery and characterization of large numbers (10--100 times more than currently known) of small solar system bodies, furthering studies of planetary formation and evolution. This white paper summarizes some of the expected science from the ten years of LSST, and emphasizes that the planetary astronomy community should remain invested in the path of Rubin Observatory once the LSST is complete.

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arXiv2020

Characterization of Temporarily-Captured Minimoon 2020 CD$_3$ by Keck Time-resolved Spectrophotometry

We present time-resolved visible spectrophotometry of minimoon 2020 CD$_3$, the second asteroid known to become temporarily captured by the Earth-Moon system's gravitational field. The spectrophotometry was taken with Keck I/LRIS between wavelengths 434 nm and 912 nm in $B$, $g$, $V$, $R$, $I$ and RG850 filters as it was leaving the Earth-Moon system on 2020 March 23 UTC. The spectrophotometry of 2020 CD$_3$ most closely resembles the spectra of V-type asteroids and some Lunar rock samples with a reddish slope of ~18$\%$/100 nm between 434 nm and 761 nm corresponding to colors of $g$-$r$ = 0.62$\pm$0.08, $r$-$i$ = 0.21 $\pm$ 0.06 and an absorption band at ~900 nm corresponding to $i$-$z$ = -0.54$\pm$0.10. Combining our measured 31.9$\pm$0.1 absolute magnitude with an albedo of 0.35 typical for V-type asteroids, we determine 2020 CD$_3$'s diameter to be ~0.9$\pm$0.1 m making it the first minimoon and one of the smallest asteroids to be spectrally studied. We use our time-series photometry to detect periodic lightcurve variations with a $<$10$^{-4}$ false alarm probability corresponding to a lightcurve period of ~573 s and a lightcurve amplitude of ~1 mag implying 2020 CD$_3$ possesses a $b/a$ axial ratio of ~2.5. In addition, we extend the observational arc of 2020 CD$_3$ to 37 days between 2020 February 15 UTC and 2020 March 23 UTC. From the improved orbital solution for 2020 CD$_3$, we estimate its likely duration of its capture to be ~2 y, and we measure the non-gravitation perturbation on its orbit due to radiation pressure with an area-to-mass ratio of 6.9$\pm$2.4$\times$10$^{-4}$ m$^2$/kg implying a density of 2.3$\pm$0.8 g/cm$^3$, broadly compatible with the densities of other meter-scale asteroids and Lunar rock. We searched for pre-discovery detections of 2020 CD$_3$ in the ZTF archive as far back as 2018 October, but were unable to locate any positive detections.

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arXiv2020

Constraints on the Spin-Pole Orientation, Jet Morphology and Rotation of Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov with Deep HST Imaging

We present high resolution, deep imaging of interstellar comet 2I/Borisov taken with the Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) on 2019 December 8 UTC and 2020 January 27 UTC (HST GO 16040, PI Bolin) before and after its perihelion passage in combination with HST/WFC3 images taken on 2019 October 12 UTC and 2019 November 16 UTC (HST GO/DD 16009, PI Jewitt) before its outburst and fragmentation of March 2020, thus observing the comet in a relatively undisrupted state. We locate 1-2\arcsec~long (2,000 - 3,000 km projected length) jet-like structures near the optocenter of 2I that appear to change position angles from epoch to epoch. With the assumption that the jet is located near the rotational pole supported by its stationary appearance on $\sim$10-100 h time frames in HST images, we determine that 2I's pole points near $α$ = 322$\pm$10$^\circ$, $δ$ = 37$\pm$10$^\circ$ ($λ$ = 341$^\circ$, $β$ = 48$^\circ$) and may be in a simple rotation state. Additionally, we find evidence for possible periodicity in the HST time-series lightcurve on the time scale of $\sim$5.3 h with a small amplitude of $\sim$0.05 mag implying a lower limit on its $b/a$ ratio of $\sim$1.5 unlike the large $\sim$2 mag lightcurve observed for 1I/`Oumuamua. However, these small lightcurve variations may not be the result of the rotation of 2I's nucleus due to its dust-dominated light-scattering cross-section. Therefore, uniquely constraining the pre-Solar System encounter, pre-outburst rotation state of 2I may not be possible even with the resolution and sensitivity provided by HST observations.

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arXiv2020

Characterization of the Nucleus, Morphology and Activity of Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov by Optical and Near-Infrared GROWTH, Apache Point, IRTF, ZTF and Keck Observations

We present visible and near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations of interstellar object 2I/Borisov taken from 2019 September 10 to 2019 November 29 using the GROWTH, the APO ARC 3.5 m and the NASA/IRTF 3.0 m combined with post and pre-discovery observations of 2I obtained by ZTF from 2019 March 17 to 2019 May 5. Comparison with imaging of distant Solar System comets shows an object very similar to mildly active Solar System comets with an out-gassing rate of $\sim$10$^{27}$ mol/sec. The photometry, taken in filters spanning the visible and NIR range shows a gradual brightening trend of $\sim0.03$ mags/day since 2019 September 10 UTC for a reddish object becoming neutral in the NIR. The lightcurve from recent and pre-discovery data reveals a brightness trend suggesting the recent onset of significant H$_2$O sublimation with the comet being active with super volatiles such as CO at heliocentric distances $>$6 au consistent with its extended morphology. Using the advanced capability to significantly reduce the scattered light from the coma enabled by high-resolution NIR images from Keck adaptive optics taken on 2019 October 04, we estimate a diameter of 2I's nucleus of $\lesssim$1.4 km. We use the size estimates of 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov to roughly estimate the slope of the ISO size-distribution resulting in a slope of $\sim$3.4$\pm$1.2, similar to Solar System comets and bodies produced from collisional equilibrium.

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arXiv2019

Pre-discovery Activity of New Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov Beyond 5 AU

Comet 2I/Borisov, the first unambiguous interstellar comet ever found, was discovered in August 2019 at $\sim3$ au from the Sun on its inbound leg. No pre-discovery detection beyond 3 au has yet been reported, mostly due to the comet's proximity to the Sun as seen from the Earth. Here we present a search for pre-discovery detections of comet Borisov using images taken by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), Pan-STARRS and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), with a further comprehensive follow-up campaign being presented in \citet{Bolin2019}. We identified comet Borisov in ZTF images taken in May 2019 and use these data to update its orbit. This allowed us to identify the comet in images acquired as far back as December 2018, when it was 7.8 au from the Sun. The comet was not detected in November 2018 when it was 8.6 au from the Sun, possibly implying an onset of activity around this time. This suggests that the activity of the comet is either driven by a more volatile species other than H$_2$O, such as CO or CO$_2$, or by exothermic crystallization of amorphous ice. We derive the radius of the nucleus to be $<7$ km using the non-detection in November 2018, and estimate an area of $\sim0.5$---$10 \mathrm{km^2}$ has been active between December 2018 and September 2019, though this number is model-dependent and is highly uncertain. The behavior of comet Borisov during its inbound leg is observationally consistent with dynamically new comets observed in our solar system, suggesting some similarities between the two.

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arXiv2019

Maximizing LSST Solar System Science: Approaches, Software Tools, and Infrastructure Needs

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to increase known small solar system object populations by an order of magnitude or more over the next decade, enabling a broad array of transformative solar system science investigations to be performed. In this white paper, we discuss software tools and infrastructure that we anticipate will be needed to conduct these investigations and outline possible approaches for implementing them. Feedback from the community or contributions to future updates of this work are welcome. Our aim is for this white paper to encourage further consideration of the software development needs of the LSST solar system science community, and also to be a call to action for working to meet those needs in advance of the expected start of the survey in late 2022.

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arXiv2019

Earth's Minimoons: Opportunities for Science and Technology

(modified from published version) Twelve years ago the Catalina Sky Survey discovered Earth's first known natural geocentric object other than the Moon, a few-meter diameter asteroid designated 2006 RH120. Despite significant improvements in ground-based telescope and detector technology in the past decade the asteroid surveys have not discovered another temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; colloquially known as minimoons). Within a few years the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will either begin to regularly detect TCOs or force a re-analysis of the creation and dynamical evolution of small asteroids in the inner solar system. The first studies of the provenance, properties, and dynamics of Earth's minimoons suggested that there should be a steady state population with about one 1- to 2-meter diameter captured objects at any time. That model was then improved and extended to include the population of temporarily-captured flybys (TCFs), objects that fail to make an entire revolution around Earth while energetically bound to the Earth-Moon system. Several different techniques for discovering TCOs have been considered but their small diameters, proximity, and rapid motion make them challenging targets for existing ground-based optical, meteor, and radar surveys. We expect that if the TCO population is confirmed, and new objects are frequently discovered, they can provide new opportunities for 1) studying the dynamics of the Earth-Moon system, 2) testing models of the production and dynamical evolution of small asteroids from the asteroid belt, 3) rapid and frequent low delta-v missions to multiple minimoons, and 4) evaluating in-situ resource utilization techniques on asteroidal material. Here we review the past decade of minimoon studies in preparation for capitalizing on the scientific and commercial opportunities of TCOs in the first decade of LSST operations.

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arXiv2018

Size-dependent modification of asteroid family Yarkovsky V-shapes

The thermal properties of the surfaces of asteroids determine the magnitude of the drift rate cause by the Yarkovsky force. In the general case of Main Belt asteroids, the Yarkovsky force is indirectly proportional to the thermal inertia, $Γ$. Following the proposed relationship between $Γ$ and asteroid diameter $D$, we find that asteroids' Yarkovsky drift rates might have a more complex size dependence than previous thought, leading to a curved family V-shape boundary in semi-major axis, a, vs. 1/$D$ space. This implies that asteroids are drifting faster at larger sizes than previously considered decreasing on average the known ages of asteroid families. The V-Shape curvature is determined for $>$25 families located throughout the Main Belt to quantify the Yarkovsky size-dependent drift rate. We find that there is no correlation between family age and V-shape curvature. In addition, the V-shape curvature decreases for asteroid families with larger heliocentric distances suggesting that the relationship between $Γ$ and $D$ is weaker in the outer MB possibly due to homogenous surface roughness among family members.

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arXiv2018

APO Time Resolved Color Photometry of Highly-Elongated Interstellar Object 1I/'Oumuamua

We report on $g$, $r$ and $i$ band observations of the Interstellar Object 'Oumuamua (1I) taken on 2017 October 29 from 04:28 to 08:40 UTC by the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5m telescope's ARCTIC camera. We find that 1I's colors are $g-r=0.41\pm0.24$ and $r-i=0.23\pm0.25$, consistent with the visible spectra of Masiero (2017), Ye et al. (2017) and Fitzsimmons et al. (2017), and most comparable to the population of Solar System C/D asteroids, Trojans, or comets. We find no evidence of any cometary activity at a heliocentric distance of 1.46 au, approximately 1.5 months after 1I's closest approach distance to the Sun. Significant brightness variability was seen in the $r$ observations, with the object becoming notably brighter towards the end of the run. By combining our APO photometric time series data with the Discovery Channel Telescope (DCT) data of Knight et al. (2017), taken 20 h later on 2017 October 30, we construct an almost complete light curve with a most probable lightcurve period of $P \simeq 4~{\rm h}$. Our results imply a double peaked rotation period of 8.1 $\pm$ 0.02 h, with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 1.5 - 2.1 mags. Assuming that 1I's shape can be approximated by an ellipsoid, the amplitude constraint implies that 1I has an axial ratio of 3.5 to 10.3, which is strikingly elongated. Assuming that 1I is rotating above its critical break up limit, our results are compatible with 1I having having modest cohesive strength and may have obtained its elongated shape during a tidal disruption event before being ejected from its home system. Astrometry useful for constraining 1I's orbit was also obtained and published in Weaver et al. (2017).

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arXiv2017

Initial velocity V-shapes of young asteroid families

Ejection velocity fields of asteroid families are largely unconstrained due to the fact that members disperse relatively quickly on Myr time-scales by secular resonances and the Yarkovsky effect. The spreading of fragments in $a$ by the Yarkovsky effect is indistinguishable from the spreading caused by the initial ejection of fragments. By examining families $<$20 Myrs-old, we can use the V-shape identification technique to separate family shapes that are due to the initial ejection velocity field and those that are due to the Yarkovsky effect. $<$20 Myr-old asteroid families provide an opportunity to study the velocity field of family fragments before they become too dispersed. Only the Karin family's initial velocity field has been determined and scales inversely with diameter, $D^{-1}$. We have applied the V-shape identification technique to constrain young families' initial ejection velocity fields by measuring the curvature of their fragments' V-shape correlation in semi-major axis, $a$, vs. $D^{-1}$ space. Curvature from a straight line implies a deviation from a scaling of $D^{-1}$. We measure the V-shape curvature of 11 young asteroid families including the \FYnospace, Aeolia, Brangane, Brasilia, Clarissa, Iannini, Karin, Konig, Koronis(2), Theobalda and Veritas asteroid families. We find that the majority of asteroid families have initial ejection velocity fields consistent with $\sim D^{-1}$ supporting laboratory impact experiments and computer simulations of disrupting asteroid parent bodies.

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arXiv2016

Yarkovsky V-shape identification of asteroid families

There are only a few known main belt (MB) asteroid families with ages greater than 2 Gyr (Brož et al. 2013, Spoto et al. 2015). Estimates based on the family producing collision rate suggest that the lack of >2 Gyr-old families may be due to a selection bias in current techniques used to identify families. Family fragments disperse in their orbital elements, semi-major axis, $a$, eccentricity, $e$, and inclination, $i$, due to secular resonances, close encounters with massive asteroids and the non-gravitational Yarkovsky force. This causes the family fragments to be indistinguishable from the background of the main belt making them more difficult to identify with the hierarchical clustering method (HCM) with increasing family age. The discovery of the Eulalia and new Polana families in the inner belt relied on new techniques because Yarkovsky spreading made them too disperse to be identified using the classical HCM. The technique used to discover the new Polana and Eulalia families is modified to identify asteroid families by searching for correlations between $a$ and asteroid diameter, $D$, or absolute magnitude, $H$. A group of asteroids is identified as a collisional family if its boundary in the $a$ vs. 1/$D$ or $a$ vs. $H$ planes has a characteristic V-shape which is due to the size dependent Yarkovsky spreading. The V-shape boundary is identified with two separate techniques. The first identifies a border by measuring the drop between the number of objects inside and outside of the border. The second identifies the V-shape border by measuring the number density of objects in $a$ vs. 1/$D$,$H$ space. The V-shape techniques are demonstrated on known families Erigone, Vesta, Koronis, and families difficult to identify by HCM such as Flora, Baptistina, new Polana, Eulalia and Karin. Application of the technique in a search for >2 Gyr-old families throughout the MB is discussed.

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