arXiv subjects

Bryon Aragam

Publications and source records attributed to Bryon Aragam.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Is This Your Final Answer? Cross-Contextual Consistency as a Measure of LLM Credibility

Large language models (LLMs) are powerful black-box systems, making it difficult to discern whether their answers reflect stable internal beliefs or superficial pattern matching. We identify cross-contextual consistency as an underutilized behavioral property of LLMs: a credible answer should remain stable when the same task is placed under topic-aligned, content-neutral contextual variation. Building on this intuition, we operationalize Cross-Contextual Consistency (C3) by comparing model generations under original and perturbed prompts. Across 26 models and six benchmarks spanning reasoning, factuality, and code generation, we find that answers with smaller cross-contextual shifts are more likely to be correct or factual. We demonstrate that C3 provides a complementary axis of evaluation and can serve as a benchmark usefulness diagnostic, identifying which portions of a benchmark remain informative even when aggregated scores are widely considered "saturate".

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Beyond identifiability: Learning causal representations with few environments and finite samples

We provide explicit, finite-sample guarantees for learning causal representations from data with a sublinear number of environments. Causal representation learning seeks to provide a rigourous foundation for the general representation learning problem by bridging causal models with latent factor models in order to learn interpretable representations with causal semantics. Despite a blossoming theory of identifiability in causal representation learning, estimation and finite-sample bounds are less well understood. We show that causal representations can be learned with only a logarithmic number of unknown, multi-node interventions, and that the intervention targets need not be carefully designed in advance. Through a careful perturbation analysis, we provide a new analysis of this problem that guarantees consistent recovery of (a) the latent causal graph, (b) the mixing matrix and representations, and (c) \emph{unknown} intervention targets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Differentiable Structure Learning and Causal Discovery for General Binary Data

Existing methods for differentiable structure learning in discrete data typically assume that the data are generated from specific structural equation models. However, these assumptions may not align with the true data-generating process, which limits the general applicability of such methods. Furthermore, current approaches often ignore the complex dependence structure inherent in discrete data and consider only linear effects. We propose a differentiable structure learning framework that is capable of capturing arbitrary dependencies among discrete variables. We show that although general discrete models are unidentifiable from purely observational data, it is possible to characterize the complete set of compatible parameters and structures. Additionally, we establish identifiability up to Markov equivalence under mild assumptions. We formulate the learning problem as a single differentiable optimization task in the most general form, thereby avoiding the unrealistic simplifications adopted by previous methods. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach effectively captures complex relationships in discrete data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Optimality and computational barriers in variable selection under dependence

We study the optimal sample complexity of variable selection in linear regression under general design covariance, and show that subset selection is optimal while under standard complexity assumptions, efficient algorithms for this problem do not exist. Specifically, we analyze the variable selection problem and provide the optimal sample complexity with exact dependence on the problem parameters for both known and unknown sparsity settings. Moreover, we establish a sample complexity lower bound for any efficient estimator, highlighting a gap between the statistical efficiency achievable by combinatorial algorithms (such as subset selection) compared to efficient algorithms (such as those based on convex programming). The proofs rely on a finite-sample analysis of an information criterion estimator, which may be of independent interest. Our results emphasize the optimal position of subset selection, the critical role played by restricted eigenvalues, and characterize the statistical-computational trade-off in high-dimensional variable selection.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Optimal structure learning and conditional independence testing

We establish a fundamental connection between optimal structure learning and optimal conditional independence testing by showing that the minimax optimal rate for structure learning problems is determined by the minimax rate for conditional independence testing in these problems. This is accomplished by establishing a general reduction between these two problems in the case of poly-forests, and demonstrated by deriving optimal rates for several examples, including Bernoulli, Gaussian and nonparametric models. Furthermore, we show that the optimal algorithm in these settings is a suitable modification of the PC algorithm. This theoretical finding provides a unified framework for analyzing the statistical complexity of structure learning through the lens of minimax testing.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Intervening to Learn and Compose Causally Disentangled Representations

In designing generative models, it is commonly believed that in order to learn useful latent structure, we face a fundamental tension between expressivity and structure. In this paper we challenge this view by proposing a new approach to training arbitrarily expressive generative models that simultaneously learn causally disentangled concepts. This is accomplished by adding a simple context module to an arbitrarily complex black-box model, which learns to process concept information by implicitly inverting linear representations from the model's encoder. Inspired by the notion of intervention in a causal model, our module selectively modifies its architecture during training, allowing it to learn a compact joint model over different contexts. We show how adding this module leads to causally disentangled representations that can be composed for out-of-distribution generation on both real and simulated data. The resulting models can be trained end-to-end or fine-tuned from pre-trained models. To further validate our proposed approach, we prove a new identifiability result that extends existing work on identifying structured representations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Model-free Estimation of Latent Structure via Multiscale Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood

Multivariate distributions often carry latent structures that are difficult to identify and estimate, and which better reflect the data generating mechanism than extrinsic structures exhibited simply by the raw data. In this paper, we propose a model-free approach for estimating such latent structures whenever they are present, without assuming they exist a priori. Given an arbitrary density $p_0$, we construct a multiscale representation of the density and propose data-driven methods for selecting representative models that capture meaningful discrete structure. Our approach uses a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator to estimate the latent structure at different scales and we further characterize their asymptotic limits. By carrying out such a multiscale analysis, we obtain coarseto-fine structures inherent in the original distribution, which are integrated via a model selection procedure to yield an interpretable discrete representation of it. As an application, we design a clustering algorithm based on the proposed procedure and demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing a wide range of latent structures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Towards Interpretable Deep Generative Models via Causal Representation Learning

Recent developments in generative artificial intelligence (AI) rely on machine learning techniques such as deep learning and generative modeling to achieve state-of-the-art performance across wide-ranging domains. These methods' surprising performance is due in part to their ability to learn implicit "representations" of complex, multi-modal data. Unfortunately, deep neural networks are notoriously black boxes that obscure these representations, making them difficult to interpret or analyze. To resolve these difficulties, one approach is to build new interpretable neural network models from the ground up. This is the goal of the emerging field of causal representation learning (CRL) that uses causality as a vector for building flexible, interpretable, and transferable generative AI. CRL can be seen as a synthesis of three intrinsically statistical ideas: (i) latent variable models such as factor analysis; (ii) causal graphical models with latent variables; and (iii) nonparametric statistics and deep learning. This paper introduces CRL from a statistical perspective, focusing on connections to classical models as well as statistical and causal identifiability results. We also highlights key application areas, implementation strategies, and open statistical questions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

ScoreFlow: Mastering LLM Agent Workflows via Score-based Preference Optimization

Recent research has leveraged large language model multi-agent systems for complex problem-solving while trying to reduce the manual effort required to build them, driving the development of automated agent workflow optimization methods. However, existing methods remain inflexible due to representational limitations, a lack of adaptability, and poor scalability when relying on discrete optimization techniques. We address these challenges with ScoreFlow, a simple yet high-performance framework that leverages efficient gradient-based optimization in a continuous space. ScoreFlow incorporates Score-DPO, a novel variant of the direct preference optimization method that accounts for quantitative feedback. Across six benchmarks spanning question answering, coding, and mathematical reasoning, ScoreFlow achieves an 8.2% improvement over existing baselines. Moreover, it empowers smaller models to outperform larger ones with lower inference costs. Project: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/ScoreFlow

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Learning Interpretable Concepts: Unifying Causal Representation Learning and Foundation Models

To build intelligent machine learning systems, there are two broad approaches. One approach is to build inherently interpretable models, as endeavored by the growing field of causal representation learning. The other approach is to build highly-performant foundation models and then invest efforts into understanding how they work. In this work, we relate these two approaches and study how to learn human-interpretable concepts from data. Weaving together ideas from both fields, we formally define a notion of concepts and show that they can be provably recovered from diverse data. Experiments on synthetic data and large language models show the utility of our unified approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Do LLMs dream of elephants (when told not to)? Latent concept association and associative memory in transformers

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the capacity to store and recall facts. Through experimentation with open-source models, we observe that this ability to retrieve facts can be easily manipulated by changing contexts, even without altering their factual meanings. These findings highlight that LLMs might behave like an associative memory model where certain tokens in the contexts serve as clues to retrieving facts. We mathematically explore this property by studying how transformers, the building blocks of LLMs, can complete such memory tasks. We study a simple latent concept association problem with a one-layer transformer and we show theoretically and empirically that the transformer gathers information using self-attention and uses the value matrix for associative memory.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Markov Equivalence and Consistency in Differentiable Structure Learning

Existing approaches to differentiable structure learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) rely on strong identifiability assumptions in order to guarantee that global minimizers of the acyclicity-constrained optimization problem identifies the true DAG. Moreover, it has been observed empirically that the optimizer may exploit undesirable artifacts in the loss function. We explain and remedy these issues by studying the behavior of differentiable acyclicity-constrained programs under general likelihoods with multiple global minimizers. By carefully regularizing the likelihood, it is possible to identify the sparsest model in the Markov equivalence class, even in the absence of an identifiable parametrization. We first study the Gaussian case in detail, showing how proper regularization of the likelihood defines a score that identifies the sparsest model. Assuming faithfulness, it also recovers the Markov equivalence class. These results are then generalized to general models and likelihoods, where the same claims hold. These theoretical results are validated empirically, showing how this can be done using standard gradient-based optimizers, thus paving the way for differentiable structure learning under general models and losses.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Dimension-independent rates for structured neural density estimation

We show that deep neural networks achieve dimension-independent rates of convergence for learning structured densities such as those arising in image, audio, video, and text applications. More precisely, we demonstrate that neural networks with a simple $L^2$-minimizing loss achieve a rate of $n^{-1/(4+r)}$ in nonparametric density estimation when the underlying density is Markov to a graph whose maximum clique size is at most $r$, and we provide evidence that in the aforementioned applications, this size is typically constant, i.e., $r=O(1)$. We then establish that the optimal rate in $L^1$ is $n^{-1/(2+r)}$ which, compared to the standard nonparametric rate of $n^{-1/(2+d)}$, reveals that the effective dimension of such problems is the size of the largest clique in the Markov random field. These rates are independent of the data's ambient dimension, making them applicable to realistic models of image, sound, video, and text data. Our results provide a novel justification for deep learning's ability to circumvent the curse of dimensionality, demonstrating dimension-independent convergence rates in these contexts.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Identifying General Mechanism Shifts in Linear Causal Representations

We consider the linear causal representation learning setting where we observe a linear mixing of $d$ unknown latent factors, which follow a linear structural causal model. Recent work has shown that it is possible to recover the latent factors as well as the underlying structural causal model over them, up to permutation and scaling, provided that we have at least $d$ environments, each of which corresponds to perfect interventions on a single latent node (factor). After this powerful result, a key open problem faced by the community has been to relax these conditions: allow for coarser than perfect single-node interventions, and allow for fewer than $d$ of them, since the number of latent factors $d$ could be very large. In this work, we consider precisely such a setting, where we allow a smaller than $d$ number of environments, and also allow for very coarse interventions that can very coarsely \textit{change the entire causal graph over the latent factors}. On the flip side, we relax what we wish to extract to simply the \textit{list of nodes that have shifted between one or more environments}. We provide a surprising identifiability result that it is indeed possible, under some very mild standard assumptions, to identify the set of shifted nodes. Our identifiability proof moreover is a constructive one: we explicitly provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a node to be a shifted node, and show that we can check these conditions given observed data. Our algorithm lends itself very naturally to the sample setting where instead of just interventional distributions, we are provided datasets of samples from each of these distributions. We corroborate our results on both synthetic experiments as well as an interesting psychometric dataset. The code can be found at https://github.com/TianyuCodings/iLCS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Breaking the curse of dimensionality in structured density estimation

We consider the problem of estimating a structured multivariate density, subject to Markov conditions implied by an undirected graph. In the worst case, without Markovian assumptions, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Our main result shows how the curse of dimensionality can be avoided or greatly alleviated under the Markov property, and applies to arbitrary graphs. While existing results along these lines focus on sparsity or manifold assumptions, we introduce a new graphical quantity called "graph resilience" and show how it controls the sample complexity. Surprisingly, although one might expect the sample complexity of this problem to scale with local graph parameters such as the degree, this turns out not to be the case. Through explicit examples, we compute uniform deviation bounds and illustrate how the curse of dimensionality in density estimation can thus be circumvented. Notable examples where the rate improves substantially include sequential, hierarchical, and spatial data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Assumption violations in causal discovery and the robustness of score matching

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical properties of their data. Because causal discovery without further assumptions is an ill-posed problem, each algorithm comes with its own set of usually untestable assumptions, some of which are hard to meet in real datasets. Motivated by these considerations, this paper extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of recent causal discovery methods on observational i.i.d. data generated under different background conditions, allowing for violations of the critical assumptions required by each selected approach. Our experimental findings show that score matching-based methods demonstrate surprising performance in the false positive and false negative rate of the inferred graph in these challenging scenarios, and we provide theoretical insights into their performance. This work is also the first effort to benchmark the stability of causal discovery algorithms with respect to the values of their hyperparameters. Finally, we hope this paper will set a new standard for the evaluation of causal discovery methods and can serve as an accessible entry point for practitioners interested in the field, highlighting the empirical implications of different algorithm choices.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Greedy equivalence search for nonparametric graphical models

One of the hallmark achievements of the theory of graphical models and Bayesian model selection is the celebrated greedy equivalence search (GES) algorithm due to Chickering and Meek. GES is known to consistently estimate the structure of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models in various special cases including Gaussian and discrete models, which are in particular curved exponential families. A general theory that covers general nonparametric DAG models, however, is missing. Here, we establish the consistency of greedy equivalence search for general families of DAG models that satisfy smoothness conditions on the Markov factorization, and hence may not be curved exponential families, or even parametric. The proof leverages recent advances in nonparametric Bayes to construct a test for comparing misspecified DAG models that avoids arguments based on the Laplace approximation. Nonetheless, when the Laplace approximation is valid and a consistent scoring function exists, we recover the classical result. As a result, we obtain a general consistency theorem for GES applied to general DAG models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

On the Origins of Linear Representations in Large Language Models

Recent works have argued that high-level semantic concepts are encoded "linearly" in the representation space of large language models. In this work, we study the origins of such linear representations. To that end, we introduce a simple latent variable model to abstract and formalize the concept dynamics of the next token prediction. We use this formalism to show that the next token prediction objective (softmax with cross-entropy) and the implicit bias of gradient descent together promote the linear representation of concepts. Experiments show that linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, confirming that this simple structure already suffices to yield linear representations. We additionally confirm some predictions of the theory using the LLaMA-2 large language model, giving evidence that the simplified model yields generalizable insights.

cs.CL↗