arXiv subjects

Bryon Aragam

Publications and source records attributed to Bryon Aragam.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Assumption violations in causal discovery and the robustness of score matching

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical properties of their data. Because causal discovery without further assumptions is an ill-posed problem, each algorithm comes with its own set of usually untestable assumptions, some of which are hard to meet in real datasets. Motivated by these considerations, this paper extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of recent causal discovery methods on observational i.i.d. data generated under different background conditions, allowing for violations of the critical assumptions required by each selected approach. Our experimental findings show that score matching-based methods demonstrate surprising performance in the false positive and false negative rate of the inferred graph in these challenging scenarios, and we provide theoretical insights into their performance. This work is also the first effort to benchmark the stability of causal discovery algorithms with respect to the values of their hyperparameters. Finally, we hope this paper will set a new standard for the evaluation of causal discovery methods and can serve as an accessible entry point for practitioners interested in the field, highlighting the empirical implications of different algorithm choices.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Greedy equivalence search for nonparametric graphical models

One of the hallmark achievements of the theory of graphical models and Bayesian model selection is the celebrated greedy equivalence search (GES) algorithm due to Chickering and Meek. GES is known to consistently estimate the structure of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models in various special cases including Gaussian and discrete models, which are in particular curved exponential families. A general theory that covers general nonparametric DAG models, however, is missing. Here, we establish the consistency of greedy equivalence search for general families of DAG models that satisfy smoothness conditions on the Markov factorization, and hence may not be curved exponential families, or even parametric. The proof leverages recent advances in nonparametric Bayes to construct a test for comparing misspecified DAG models that avoids arguments based on the Laplace approximation. Nonetheless, when the Laplace approximation is valid and a consistent scoring function exists, we recover the classical result. As a result, we obtain a general consistency theorem for GES applied to general DAG models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

On the Origins of Linear Representations in Large Language Models

Recent works have argued that high-level semantic concepts are encoded "linearly" in the representation space of large language models. In this work, we study the origins of such linear representations. To that end, we introduce a simple latent variable model to abstract and formalize the concept dynamics of the next token prediction. We use this formalism to show that the next token prediction objective (softmax with cross-entropy) and the implicit bias of gradient descent together promote the linear representation of concepts. Experiments show that linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, confirming that this simple structure already suffices to yield linear representations. We additionally confirm some predictions of the theory using the LLaMA-2 large language model, giving evidence that the simplified model yields generalizable insights.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Optimal estimation of Gaussian (poly)trees

We develop optimal algorithms for learning undirected Gaussian trees and directed Gaussian polytrees from data. We consider both problems of distribution learning (i.e. in KL distance) and structure learning (i.e. exact recovery). The first approach is based on the Chow-Liu algorithm, and learns an optimal tree-structured distribution efficiently. The second approach is a modification of the PC algorithm for polytrees that uses partial correlation as a conditional independence tester for constraint-based structure learning. We derive explicit finite-sample guarantees for both approaches, and show that both approaches are optimal by deriving matching lower bounds. Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to compare the performance of various algorithms, providing further insights and empirical evidence.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

iSCAN: Identifying Causal Mechanism Shifts among Nonlinear Additive Noise Models

Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the underlying causal structure is often unknown, and estimating it from data remains a challenging task. In many situations, however, the end goal is to localize the changes (shifts) in the causal mechanisms between related datasets instead of learning the full causal structure of the individual datasets. Some applications include root cause analysis, analyzing gene regulatory network structure changes between healthy and cancerous individuals, or explaining distribution shifts. This paper focuses on identifying the causal mechanism shifts in two or more related datasets over the same set of variables -- without estimating the entire DAG structure of each SCM. Prior work under this setting assumed linear models with Gaussian noises; instead, in this work we assume that each SCM belongs to the more general class of nonlinear additive noise models (ANMs). A key technical contribution of this work is to show that the Jacobian of the score function for the mixture distribution allows for the identification of shifts under general non-parametric functional mechanisms. Once the shifted variables are identified, we leverage recent work to estimate the structural differences, if any, for the shifted variables. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are provided to showcase the applicability of this approach. Code implementing the proposed method is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/kevinsbello/iSCAN.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Inconsistency of cross-validation for structure learning in Gaussian graphical models

Despite numerous years of research into the merits and trade-offs of various model selection criteria, obtaining robust results that elucidate the behavior of cross-validation remains a challenging endeavor. In this paper, we highlight the inherent limitations of cross-validation when employed to discern the structure of a Gaussian graphical model. We provide finite-sample bounds on the probability that the Lasso estimator for the neighborhood of a node within a Gaussian graphical model, optimized using a prediction oracle, misidentifies the neighborhood. Our results pertain to both undirected and directed acyclic graphs, encompassing general, sparse covariance structures. To support our theoretical findings, we conduct an empirical investigation of this inconsistency by contrasting our outcomes with other commonly used information criteria through an extensive simulation study. Given that many algorithms designed to learn the structure of graphical models require hyperparameter selection, the precise calibration of this hyperparameter is paramount for accurately estimating the inherent structure. Consequently, our observations shed light on this widely recognized practical challenge.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Learning Linear Causal Representations from Interventions under General Nonlinear Mixing

We study the problem of learning causal representations from unknown, latent interventions in a general setting, where the latent distribution is Gaussian but the mixing function is completely general. We prove strong identifiability results given unknown single-node interventions, i.e., without having access to the intervention targets. This generalizes prior works which have focused on weaker classes, such as linear maps or paired counterfactual data. This is also the first instance of causal identifiability from non-paired interventions for deep neural network embeddings. Our proof relies on carefully uncovering the high-dimensional geometric structure present in the data distribution after a non-linear density transformation, which we capture by analyzing quadratic forms of precision matrices of the latent distributions. Finally, we propose a contrastive algorithm to identify the latent variables in practice and evaluate its performance on various tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Learning nonparametric latent causal graphs with unknown interventions

We establish conditions under which latent causal graphs are nonparametrically identifiable and can be reconstructed from unknown interventions in the latent space. Our primary focus is the identification of the latent structure in measurement models without parametric assumptions such as linearity or Gaussianity. Moreover, we do not assume the number of hidden variables is known, and we show that at most one unknown intervention per hidden variable is needed. This extends a recent line of work on learning causal representations from observations and interventions. The proofs are constructive and introduce two new graphical concepts -- imaginary subsets and isolated edges -- that may be useful in their own right. As a matter of independent interest, the proofs also involve a novel characterization of the limits of edge orientations within the equivalence class of DAGs induced by unknown interventions. These are the first results to characterize the conditions under which causal representations are identifiable without making any parametric assumptions in a general setting with unknown interventions and without faithfulness.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Uncovering Meanings of Embeddings via Partial Orthogonality

Machine learning tools often rely on embedding text as vectors of real numbers. In this paper, we study how the semantic structure of language is encoded in the algebraic structure of such embeddings. Specifically, we look at a notion of ``semantic independence'' capturing the idea that, e.g., ``eggplant'' and ``tomato'' are independent given ``vegetable''. Although such examples are intuitive, it is difficult to formalize such a notion of semantic independence. The key observation here is that any sensible formalization should obey a set of so-called independence axioms, and thus any algebraic encoding of this structure should also obey these axioms. This leads us naturally to use partial orthogonality as the relevant algebraic structure. We develop theory and methods that allow us to demonstrate that partial orthogonality does indeed capture semantic independence. Complementary to this, we also introduce the concept of independence preserving embeddings where embeddings preserve the conditional independence structures of a distribution, and we prove the existence of such embeddings and approximations to them.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Tight Bounds on the Hardness of Learning Simple Nonparametric Mixtures

We study the problem of learning nonparametric distributions in a finite mixture, and establish tight bounds on the sample complexity for learning the component distributions in such models. Namely, we are given i.i.d. samples from a pdf $f$ where $$ f=w_1f_1+w_2f_2, \quad w_1+w_2=1, \quad w_1,w_2>0 $$ and we are interested in learning each component $f_i$. Without any assumptions on $f_i$, this problem is ill-posed. In order to identify the components $f_i$, we assume that each $f_i$ can be written as a convolution of a Gaussian and a compactly supported density $ν_i$ with $\text{supp}(ν_1)\cap \text{supp}(ν_2)=\emptyset$. Our main result shows that $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{Ω(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples are required for estimating each $f_i$. The proof relies on a quantitative Tauberian theorem that yields a fast rate of approximation with Gaussians, which may be of independent interest. To show this is tight, we also propose an algorithm that uses $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{O(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples to estimate each $f_i$. Unlike existing approaches to learning latent variable models based on moment-matching and tensor methods, our proof instead involves a delicate analysis of an ill-conditioned linear system via orthogonal functions. Combining these bounds, we conclude that the optimal sample complexity of this problem properly lies in between polynomial and exponential, which is not common in learning theory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Global Optimality in Bivariate Gradient-based DAG Learning

Recently, a new class of non-convex optimization problems motivated by the statistical problem of learning an acyclic directed graphical model from data has attracted significant interest. While existing work uses standard first-order optimization schemes to solve this problem, proving the global optimality of such approaches has proven elusive. The difficulty lies in the fact that unlike other non-convex problems in the literature, this problem is not "benign", and possesses multiple spurious solutions that standard approaches can easily get trapped in. In this paper, we prove that a simple path-following optimization scheme globally converges to the global minimum of the population loss in the bivariate setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Learning Mixtures of Gaussians with Censored Data

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $$ \sum_{i=1}^k w_i \mathcal{N}(μ_i,σ^2), $$ i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set $S$. The goal is to learn the weights $w_i$ and the means $μ_i$. We propose an algorithm that takes only $\frac{1}{\varepsilon^{O(k)}}$ samples to estimate the weights $w_i$ and the means $μ_i$ within $\varepsilon$ error.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Optimizing NOTEARS Objectives via Topological Swaps

Recently, an intriguing class of non-convex optimization problems has emerged in the context of learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). These problems involve minimizing a given loss or score function, subject to a non-convex continuous constraint that penalizes the presence of cycles in a graph. In this work, we delve into the optimization challenges associated with this class of non-convex programs. To address these challenges, we propose a bi-level algorithm that leverages the non-convex constraint in a novel way. The outer level of the algorithm optimizes over topological orders by iteratively swapping pairs of nodes within the topological order of a DAG. A key innovation of our approach is the development of an effective method for generating a set of candidate swapping pairs for each iteration. At the inner level, given a topological order, we utilize off-the-shelf solvers that can handle linear constraints. The key advantage of our proposed algorithm is that it is guaranteed to find a local minimum or a KKT point under weaker conditions compared to previous work and finds solutions with lower scores. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of achieving a better score. Additionally, our method can also be used as a post-processing algorithm to significantly improve the score of other algorithms. Code implementing the proposed method is available at https://github.com/duntrain/topo.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

DAGMA: Learning DAGs via M-matrices and a Log-Determinant Acyclicity Characterization

The combinatorial problem of learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data was recently framed as a purely continuous optimization problem by leveraging a differentiable acyclicity characterization of DAGs based on the trace of a matrix exponential function. Existing acyclicity characterizations are based on the idea that powers of an adjacency matrix contain information about walks and cycles. In this work, we propose a new acyclicity characterization based on the log-determinant (log-det) function, which leverages the nilpotency property of DAGs. To deal with the inherent asymmetries of a DAG, we relate the domain of our log-det characterization to the set of $\textit{M-matrices}$, which is a key difference to the classical log-det function defined over the cone of positive definite matrices. Similar to acyclicity functions previously proposed, our characterization is also exact and differentiable. However, when compared to existing characterizations, our log-det function: (1) Is better at detecting large cycles; (2) Has better-behaved gradients; and (3) Its runtime is in practice about an order of magnitude faster. From the optimization side, we drop the typically used augmented Lagrangian scheme and propose DAGMA ($\textit{DAGs via M-matrices for Acyclicity}$), a method that resembles the central path for barrier methods. Each point in the central path of DAGMA is a solution to an unconstrained problem regularized by our log-det function, then we show that at the limit of the central path the solution is guaranteed to be a DAG. Finally, we provide extensive experiments for $\textit{linear}$ and $\textit{nonlinear}$ SEMs and show that our approach can reach large speed-ups and smaller structural Hamming distances against state-of-the-art methods. Code implementing the proposed method is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/kevinsbello/dagma.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Uniform Consistency in Nonparametric Mixture Models

We study uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models as well as closely related mixture of regression (also known as mixed regression) models, where the regression functions are allowed to be nonparametric and the error distributions are assumed to be convolutions of a Gaussian density. We construct uniformly consistent estimators under general conditions while simultaneously highlighting several pain points in extending existing pointwise consistency results to uniform results. The resulting analysis turns out to be nontrivial, and several novel technical tools are developed along the way. In the case of mixed regression, we prove $L^1$ convergence of the regression functions while allowing for the component regression functions to intersect arbitrarily often, which presents additional technical challenges. We also consider generalizations to general (i.e. non-convolutional) nonparametric mixtures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Fundamental Limits and Tradeoffs in Invariant Representation Learning

A wide range of machine learning applications such as privacy-preserving learning, algorithmic fairness, and domain adaptation/generalization among others, involve learning invariant representations of the data that aim to achieve two competing goals: (a) maximize information or accuracy with respect to a target response, and (b) maximize invariance or independence with respect to a set of protected features (e.g., for fairness, privacy, etc). Despite their wide applicability, theoretical understanding of the optimal tradeoffs -- with respect to accuracy, and invariance -- achievable by invariant representations is still severely lacking. In this paper, we provide an information theoretic analysis of such tradeoffs under both classification and regression settings. More precisely, we provide a geometric characterization of the accuracy and invariance achievable by any representation of the data; we term this feasible region the information plane. We provide an inner bound for this feasible region for the classification case, and an exact characterization for the regression case, which allows us to either bound or exactly characterize the Pareto optimal frontier between accuracy and invariance. Although our contributions are mainly theoretical, a key practical application of our results is in certifying the potential sub-optimality of any given representation learning algorithm for either classification or regression tasks. Our results shed new light on the fundamental interplay between accuracy and invariance, and may be useful in guiding the design of future representation learning algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Identifiability of deep generative models without auxiliary information

We prove identifiability of a broad class of deep latent variable models that (a) have universal approximation capabilities and (b) are the decoders of variational autoencoders that are commonly used in practice. Unlike existing work, our analysis does not require weak supervision, auxiliary information, or conditioning in the latent space. Specifically, we show that for a broad class of generative (i.e. unsupervised) models with universal approximation capabilities, the side information $u$ is not necessary: We prove identifiability of the entire generative model where we do not observe $u$ and only observe the data $x$. The models we consider match autoencoder architectures used in practice that leverage mixture priors in the latent space and ReLU/leaky-ReLU activations in the encoder, such as VaDE and MFC-VAE. Our main result is an identifiability hierarchy that significantly generalizes previous work and exposes how different assumptions lead to different "strengths" of identifiability, and includes certain "vanilla" VAEs with isotropic Gaussian priors as a special case. For example, our weakest result establishes (unsupervised) identifiability up to an affine transformation, and thus partially resolves an open problem regarding model identifiability raised in prior work. These theoretical results are augmented with experiments on both simulated and real data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Optimal estimation of Gaussian DAG models

We study the optimal sample complexity of learning a Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our main results establish the minimax optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of a linear Gaussian DAG model in two settings of interest: 1) Under equal variances without knowledge of the true ordering, and 2) For general linear models given knowledge of the ordering. In both cases the sample complexity is $n\asymp q\log(d/q)$, where $q$ is the maximum number of parents and $d$ is the number of nodes. We further make comparisons with the classical problem of learning (undirected) Gaussian graphical models, showing that under the equal variance assumption, these two problems share the same optimal sample complexity. In other words, at least for Gaussian models with equal error variances, learning a directed graphical model is statistically no more difficult than learning an undirected graphical model. Our results also extend to more general identification assumptions as well as subgaussian errors.

math.ST↗